Pat Bowe
Analyst · Seaport Research Partners
Sure. This is a good backdrop, Eric, and you understand this market very well. So the supply and demand potential, it's interesting because a year ago, you think about first quarter a year ago when the first attacks in Odessa happened and the supply chains were disrupted. And I think the whole world I realized a lot of us knew for a long time, the Ukraine is a very important supplier to the world market. And thus, the global export grid had to adjust, which it did, which was a strong impact to U.S. elevations and exports initially. What's changed a little bit is that the Chinese approved Brazilian sources for corn. They had some phytosanitary restrictions that were lifted. And Brazil has had a big crop. Originally, people thought 120 and now it's up to 125 million to 130 million metric tons of Brazilian production. So that's good. The world needs a good solid corn supply. But the U.S. exports probably were impacted by that short term. As you mentioned, China, who is an early buyer has canceled some of the U.S. purchases and probably pulling that from Brazil. So that's just a normal shift we've seen over the years. I think the backdrop is more on the supply side, which you pointed out is important. The grower is pretty much sold out for old crop. And old crop is going to be very tight still. So that's what's kind of keeping basis levels firm. The Board did a lot of work, as you mentioned, down over $0.50 in the last 10 days or 12%. So flat prices have dropped, and that's between that and the tight supplies, I think we're going to have firm and inverted corn markets to end this crop year. Now next year, it's quite a bit different outlook is that the farmer hasn't sold a lot for new crop, still waiting to get the crop planted. We've had good planting progress in the West. And in general, we're on or above the 5-year average, but it's very regionally different. been pretty wet and cold out in the East, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, but we have an outlook now for really good weather here in the next 10 days, and we will see planting really progress. And a year neck of the woods in the Dakotas and Minnesota, it's been a lot of snow cover and a late start. But overall, this acreage estimate by the USDA planning intentions of 92 million acres, it's likely we should be pretty close to that, 91 million, 92 million acres and have about $86 million, $87 million bean crop. So U.S. is responding well. And the little surprise for us, which is good, is wheat crop is in very good shape, and wheat looks to be in really good condition in Canada and in the Eastern wheat belt. So we're feeling really good about [indiscernible] and wheat production. So overall, the market backdrop is slightly different. And one other point I think that's interesting is that we're bumping into higher crop insurance floors. So because the timing when crop insurance, as you well know, Eric, was set at higher levels, that will change some of the marketing plans for growers as they sell against a crop insurance floor. So the market has a good solid base underneath it, even with a strong production going into the year. So it's a really good setup. We're going to have volatile markets to continue. I think that's good opportunities for us. we like to have this volatility and we'll have big production. So if we get the crop planted, which we think we will here this month and have good growing, we have good pre-planting moisture across most of the belt. So U.S. production should be good, and volatility will be there. We like both, big crops and volatility. So that's a good thing for the [indiscernible].