Pat Bowe
Analyst · Stephens
Sure, Ben, yes, good question. So I think overall, as I mentioned, I think we, our earnings are going to moderate some coming off the peak earnings of this past year with the commodity prices really soured in ‘22. As you well know, fertilizer prices are down almost 40%, 50% from the peak, for the time in Ukraine war. So we don't have the environment we had with a high inflationary pressure on commodities that we had last year. Having said that, we still felt pretty confident about the original targets we put forward for 2023, which was $350 million to $375 million EBITDA, we felt good about that. I think it's the weakness is in the early part of the ethanol cycle. So this first quarter, as you well know, board crush margins have been soft. Corn base has come off a little bit, and we have good, pretty good feed values and oil values. So we could see that reversed later in the year. And we're optimistic to see a turnaround in ethanol, but we're starting out a little softer, maybe than we would have liked. The other point would be in the fertilizer markets with the weakness in fertilizer prices. The farmer, as we mentioned, is sat on the sidelines as markets have come down quite a bit. We're right at that time of year right now, we're at 60 degrees here today. So hopefully, we can start to get some decisions made by the growers and wholesalers to get active to prepare for spring application season, because it hasn't really engaged yet. So we're a little bit behind where we normally be, we're optimistic on volume, with an increase of, expected increase in corn acres in planting, we think we'll see a good volume of fertilizer production. So that's an area that we think was like ethanol start out a little weaker, but then may have a good or stronger finished to volume later in the year. On the grain side, I think we've haven't seen the Chinese come to the market as big as we did in previous years. But it's expected as they've opened up their economy a little more, with COVID restrictions being lifted. But we're still remaining to see that. Having said that, we've got good wheat storage income, expect a big suffered wheat crop, which is good for our eastern assets. And again, higher corn acres. So I think there's going to be trading opportunities that can play out well for us later in the year, we'll probably have a slower start, and hopefully a stronger finish to the year.