Rod Smith
Analyst · Citi. Please, go ahead. Wait. One moment here. My apologies Mr. Rollins. Please, go ahead
Thanks Tom and good morning everyone. Thank you all for joining our call, and I hope you're well and remain safe during these challenging times. As you saw in our press release, we had a very strong third quarter that outpaced our expectations, and as a result, are raising our full year outlook for key metrics. Before we dive into the details of our results and updated expectations, I'd like to highlight the following. First, demand for our global tower assets was strong in the quarter, most notably and as Tom just discussed, we signed a comprehensive nearly 15-year long master lease agreement with T-Mobile in the U.S. which brought our contracted base of committed future revenue across the company to over $58 billion. We believe that this MLA serves as another reaffirmation of macro towers serving as the baseline of modern wireless networks for the foreseeable future. We also expanded our tower portfolio through select acquisitions and build to suit initiatives, acquiring more than 300 sites in building nearly 1,500, which was a quarterly record. We continue to effectively manage through the challenges posed by COVID with a continued focus on the safety of our employees, vendors, customers and communities. Additionally, our focus on operational excellence, efficiency, and cost controls enabled us to drive expanding margins across the business, despite some of the challenges resulting from the global pandemic. Moving to the balance sheet, we issued around $2.8 billion in U.S. dollar in euro-denominated senior notes across several tenders, including 30 years during the quarter. As a result of these refinancing initiatives, we were able to further extend our repayment schedule, and reduce our weighted average cost of borrowings. We ended the quarter with nearly $6.7 billion in liquidity and increased our euro-denominated borrowings to represent over 10% of our total debt. Finally, we declared a common stock dividend of $1.14 per share, extending our long track record of solid dividend growth. Returning capital to shareholders through the dividend remains an important part of our capital allocation strategy. Now, please turn to Slide 6, and I will review our property revenue and organic tenant billings growth. In addition to discussing growth rates on a reported basis, I'll also outline FX neutral metrics. Our third quarter consolidated property revenue of nearly $2 billion grew on a reported basis by $66 million, or 3.4% over the prior-year period and on an FX neutral basis by $155 million, or 8.1%. Our U.S. property revenue totaled more than $1.1 billion and grew by $27 million, or 2.4% over the prior year, including a roughly 2% negative impact from lower straight-line revenue. Approximately 55% of our consolidated property revenue was generated in the U.S. Our international property revenue was approximately $865 million and grew on a reported basis by around $39 million, or 4.8%. This included FX headwinds of roughly $89 million as compared to Q3 of last year. And on an FX-neutral basis, International Property revenue grew by $129 million, or 15.6%. FX trends have appeared to stabilize over the last several months, and FX was slightly better in Q3 than our prior expectations. Our underlying revenue growth rates reflect solid demand for our tower space from our base of primarily large multinational tenants, who are expected to invest approximately $30 billion in their networks this year, as they continue to add coverage, increased network capacity and rollout more advanced network technology. Moving to the right side of the slide, you can see that we achieved consolidated organic tenant billings growth of 4.4% for the quarter, right in line with our expectations. This included U.S. organic tenant billings growth of 4.2% comprised of new business activity, which contributed 2.9%. Escalators, which contributed 3.1%, churn of 1.4%, and a roughly 0.3% negative impact from other items. As expected this growth rate reflects a sequential deceleration driven by modest levels of new business activity from T-Mobile over the last year, but continued strong contributions from other tenants. On a gross basis, including the impacts of our new MLA with T-Mobile, we expect activity to increase beginning in early 2021. Although this will be accompanied by higher levels of churn over the next few years as T-Mobile decommissioned certain Sprint sites. Our international organic tenant billings growth in the quarter was 4.7% led by Africa at over 8%, and Latin America at 7%. Europe was just over 2%, while India was negative 0.5% all of which were in line with our expectations. Gross new business commencements were solid once again as network expansion and densification initiatives continued. The component parts of our international organic tenant billings growth were new business activity, which totaled over 6%. Our mostly local inflation based pricing escalators, which contributed 3.5%, and other items which contributed 20 basis points, partially offset by the churn of 5.2% concentrated in India. Moving on to Slide 7, you can see that our third-quarter consolidated adjusted EBITDA of nearly $1.3 billion grew on a reported basis by about $69 million, or 5.6% over the prior year and on an FX neutral basis by $119 million, or 9.7%. Adjusted EBITDA margins were 64.5%, up roughly 160 basis points over the prior year, and 120 basis points sequentially. This increase was attributable primarily to solid organic growth throughout the business, as well as diligent cost management and efficiency initiatives. Our U.S. business again drove a substantial majority of our consolidated property segment operating profit accounting for roughly two thirds of the total. Moving to the right side of the slide, you can see our consolidated AFFO of $1.020 billion grew on a reported basis by nearly $131 million or 14.7% over the prior year and on an FX neutral basis by around $175 million for nearly 20%. Consolidated AFFO per share of $2.29 grew on a reported basis by about $0.29 or 14.5% over last year's levels and on an FX neutral basis grew by $0.39, or almost 20%. This growth in AFFO and AFFO per share was driven by our previously discussed growth in cash adjusted EBITDA, as well as lower cash interest costs resulting from financing activity along with lower levels of cash taxes and maintenance capital spending. Let's now move on to the high-level themes driving our updated 2020 expectations, which reflect increases across all key metrics. Our revised full-year outlook is based on underlying demand expectations that are broadly consistent with our prior view. The large multinational carriers that account for the vast majority of our consolidated property revenue continue to deploy network capital as their customers consume more and more mobile data, irrespective of some of the disruptions caused by COVID-19. In the U.S., we expect leasing demand to pick up as we head into 2021, as carriers ramp investments in 5G and continue 4G upgrades. Mobile data consumption grows at 30% or more per year, and mid-band spectrum deployments accelerate. In the intermediate-term, we think that much of this acceleration is likely to revolve around the deployment of 2.5 gigahertz spectrum. Looking slightly further out, we expect that the C band DISH's spectrum assets and to some extent CBRS are likely to all be relevant drivers of network activity. As a result, we believe that the U.S. wireless landscape remains constructive and is poised to drive solid tower leasing activity for many years to come. Our international businesses are performing well and continue to meet our expectations, highlighting the resiliency and critical nature of tower assets across the globe. We also continue to augment our international portfolio through both accretive M&A, and high return new build programs. For the full year, we are raising our expectations for new builds to 5,500 at the midpoint on the back of a record third-quarter where we constructed nearly 1,500 sites. And on the M&A front, we added nearly 300 sites across our international footprint in Q3, bringing our year-to-date total to about 800, including more than 300 in Europe. Broadband connectivity across our international footprint has never been more critical, particularly, in markets with limited fixed-line access and we are working closely with our tenants to help them drive it. As part of these efforts, we have augmented several customer relationships recently, which we believe positioned us well to drive attractive growth while delivering high levels of service. We are already seeing benefits of these enhanced partnerships through accelerating organic growth in markets like Nigeria, and higher levels of new build activity in many of our other markets and expect these positive trends to continue over the long-term. Meanwhile, in India, the Supreme Court has ruled on a 10-year AGR repayment timeline for the carriers. We view this as a positive as it provides incremental clarity in the marketplace in near-term breathing room for the carriers in terms of their liquidity. While we believe it is too early for these positive developments to translate into significant improvements in our near-term operating results, they do provide a base for optimism for the longer term. As it relates to our 2020 outlook, outside of some more favorable projections for a bad debt due to better collections over the last few months, our operational expectations in India are essentially unchanged from our prior view. Now, please turn to Slide 8, and we will review our raised outlook midpoints. Our updated guidance for property revenue is $7.89 billion, which is an increase of $165 million, compared to our prior outlook and reflects a growth rate on a reported basis of 5.6%. On an FX neutral basis, the growth rate would be right around 10%. For the U.S. property segment, we now expect revenues of nearly $4.5 billion, which is $115 million above our prior projection. This is primarily being driven by about $105 million in incremental straight-line revenue attributable to our new T-Mobile MLA, as well as some other non-run rate outperformance in the business. For our International property segment, we now anticipate property revenue of $3.390 billion, which is $50 million higher than our prior projections. This is being driven by approximately $15 million in favorable FX impacts along with around $13 million in additional currency neutral pastures, and roughly $7 million in incremental straight-line revenue as well as $15 million or so in other outperformance throughout the business. Moving to the right side of the slide, we are reiterating our expectations for 4.5% to 5% consolidated organic tenant billings growth. This includes a projection of 4.5% for the U.S. and roughly 5% for international. As I mentioned earlier, we do expect an acceleration in gross new business activity in the U.S. beginning in early 2021, in part driven by our new agreement with T-Mobile. Turning to Slide 9, you can see that we now expect our full-year adjusted EBITDA to be $5.1 billion, which is $170 million above the midpoint of our prior outlook and over11% greater than the prior year on an FX neutral basis. The primary drivers of this increase are approximately $105 million in an incremental net straight line, about $27 million and better than expected non-pass through, primarily non-run rate cash revenues around $28 million, and lower than expected non-pass through direct operating costs in cash SG&A, including $20 million and lower bad debt expectations in India in favorable FX impacts of roughly $5 million. For the year, we now expect cash SG&A as a percent of consolidated property revenue to be 8.2%, or around 7.2%, excluding bad debt reflecting continued scale benefits across the business. Lastly, we expect consolidated AFFO for the full year to be $3.75 billion at the midpoint, which is $75 million, or 2% above our prior outlook. On an FX-neutral basis, this reflects the growth of nearly 11% even including the $63 million one-time cash interest expense impact from our purchase of MTNs joint venture stakes in Africa earlier this year. The primary drivers of the increase as compared to our prior expectations include the cash adjusted EBITDA outperformance I just mentioned, $20 million in lower net cash interest, and about $5 million in favorable FX impacts, partially offset by $10 million in additional expected maintenance capital spending. On a per share basis, we now expect to generate consolidated AFFO of $8.40, an increase of $0.17 as compared to the prior outlook. On an FX neutral basis, the year-on-year per share growth rate would be nearly 11%. Moving on to Slide 10, let's review our capital deployment expectations for the full year. Let me start by stating that we remain committed to our existing disciplined approach to capital allocation, which for many years has proven to be successful. This deep-rooted philosophy guides our decisions regarding dividends, capital expenditures, M&A and stock repurchases. For 2020, we expect our full-year dividend subject to board approval to be approximately $2 billion resulting in an annual common stock dividend growth rate of right around 20%. As we discussed on last quarter's call, we expect the dividend growth rates in future years will likely be below 20% in line with our expected re-taxable income growth rates, again subject to the discretion of our board. Regarding our capital expenditures, we expect to deploy about $1.15 billion with more than 85% allocated towards discretionary projects. This is up to $75 million from our prior outlook, driven primarily by higher expected new build activity, as well as some acceleration in start-up capital spending and a small increase in maintenance CapEx. On the M&A front, we have spent roughly $860 million so far this year, including our previously mentioned purchase of the JV stake in Africa in the first quarter, and we are actively evaluating additional opportunities. Our previously announced purchase of the Tata's remaining stake in our India business is still pending regulatory approval in India. At quarter-end and exchange rates, this represents a purchase price of approximately $336 million, and for the purposes of outlook, we have assumed that this transaction will be finalized by the end of the year. And lastly, our year-to-date dividend declarations plus the $56 million we have deployed for stock repurchases, we have now returned about $1.5 billion to common stockholders so far in 2020. Turning now to Slide 11, I will briefly touch on our strong investment-grade balance sheet, which we believe will be a critical component of our continued growth. Since becoming an investment grade in late 2009, our balance sheet strength has allowed us to grow revenue, adjusted EBITDA, consolidated AFFO, and consolidated AFFO per share, while maintaining prudent levels of liquidity and ensuring unobstructed access to capital at attractive rates. During the quarter, we accessed capital markets in the U.S. and Europe to issue roughly $2.8 billion across multiple tenures, including 30-years in both the U.S. dollar and euros. As of the end of the quarter, our average cost of debt stood at 2.9% more than 200 basis points below 2010 levels and average debt tenor was more than seven years, nearly two years in excess of where we were back in 2010. Our available liquidity totaled $6.7 billion, and our net leverage was 4.5 times, solidly within the three to five times target range. Taking all this balance sheet momentum into account, we believe that we are in a tremendous position of financial strength. Looking forward, we remain committed to our existing financial policies as we continue to believe that a strong balance sheet, low cost of debt appropriate and consistent levels of leverage along with disciplined capital allocation decisions are essential to our ability to deliver attractive total shareholder returns over an extended period of time. On Slide 12 and in summary, we are positioned to finish the year strong with improving margins, enhanced strategic relationships with our tenants and continued opportunities to deploy capital towards accretive growth. Looking ahead, 5G deployment activity in the U.S. is poised to accelerate beginning in 2021, and we believe this will include material deployments of the mid-band spectrum, primarily in suburban and rural areas of the country where our towers are located. In addition, DISH is expected to begin building a nationwide network towards the back half of next year, driving potential future upside. Given our comprehensive portfolio of U.S. assets and mutually beneficial relationships with our tenants, we believe that we are well-positioned to drive a prolonged period of attractive contractually guaranteed U.S. growth. Meanwhile, we expect our diverse International Property segment to continue to perform well as global mobile network operator's deployed significant capital to deliver capable high-quality networks for their customers who are consuming more and more mobile data than ever before. Our international footprint of more than 140,000 sites is an excellent complement to our foundational U.S. asset base, and we expect that over the long term it will help us elongate and augment our growth trajectory. Finally, we believe that as a result of our strong balance sheet, our disciplined and steady approach to capital allocation, and most importantly because of our 5,500 experienced and talented employees across the globe, we are well-positioned to continue our long track record of driving consistent reoccurring consolidated AFFO per share growth, and growing dividend and attractive total shareholder returns. With that, operator, will you please open the line for questions.