Earnings Labs

American Tower Corporation (AMT)

Q2 2020 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 30, 2020

$176.72

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the American Tower Corporation Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. Following the prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Igor Khislavsky, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Igor Khislavsky

Analyst

Good morning, and thank you for joining American Tower's Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. We have posted a presentation, which we will refer to you throughout our prepared remarks under the Investor Relations tab of our website, www.americantower.com. Before the rest of my comments, I'll note that due to COVID-19, all of us on the call this morning are again dialing in remotely from different locations. So to the extent there are any minor technical difficulties, we would ask that you bear with us. Our agenda for this morning will be as follows: First, I'll quickly summarize our financial results for the second quarter; next, Tom Bartlett, our President and CEO will provide an overview of our international business and the associated key trends and returns; and then finally, Rod Smith, our Executive Vice President, CFO and Treasurer will discuss our second quarter results and updated 2020 outlook. After these comments, we will take your questions. I'll remind you that this call will contain forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Examples of these statements include: our expectations regarding future growth, including our 2020 outlook, capital allocation and future operating performance, our expectations regarding the impacts of COVID-19, our expectations regarding the impacts of the AGR decision in India, and any other statements regarding matters that are not historical facts. You should be aware that certain factors may affect us in the future and could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements. Such factors include, the risk factors set forth in this morning's earnings press release, those set forth in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019, as updated in our Form 10-Q for the three months ended March 31, 2020, and in other filings we make with the SEC. We urge you to consider these factors and remind you that we undertake no obligation to update the information contained in this call to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Now please turn to Slide 4 of our presentation, which highlights our financial results for the quarter. During the quarter, our property revenue increased 2.4% to nearly $1.9 billion. Our adjusted EBITDA also grew by 2.4% to over $1.2 billion. And our consolidated AFFO and consolidated AFFO per share increased by 1.6% and 1.5% respectively to $924 million and $2.07. On an FX neutral basis, growth rates for property revenue, adjusted EBITDA and consolidated AFFO per share would have been 8.6%, 7.6% and 7.4% respectively. Finally, net income attributable to American Tower Corporation common stockholders increased by roughly 4% to $446 million or $1 per diluted common share. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Okay, thanks, Igor. Good morning, everyone. I hope that you are all healthy and well. As we navigate the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, our number one priority continues to be the health and safety of our employees, their families, our tenants, suppliers, and surrounding communities. The remote work policies I mentioned on our last call continue to service well throughout our global footprint. And I am pleased to say that there are even a few geographies where certain employees have been able to return to the office with numerous incremental safety measures in place. I am also happy to report that our business continues to perform well as we work closely with our tenants to preserve and enhance mobile connectivity, when it is needed the most. And outside of FX impacts, which have moderated slightly over the last few months, we have to this point not seen material impacts from COVID-19 on our operations. As we move forward, we believe we are well positioned to continue to provide high levels of service and drive solid results. The rest of my remarks today, similar to prior second quarter calls, will center on the key trends in return profiles we are seeing across our international business and what we expect in the future. Since we entered Brazil and Mexico back in the late 1990s to provide geographic diversification to our foundational U.S. business, we’ve added nearly 140,000 communication sites in 19 countries outside of United States, focusing on partnering with large multinational wireless carriers in select markets with strong property rights, rules of law and vibrant wireless industries. Since day one of our international expansion strategy, our mandate has been clear, build and acquire multitenant exclusive franchise real estate assets that would generate attractive organic growth rates, while driving margin expansion and growing…

Rod Smith

Analyst

Thanks, Tom, and good morning to everyone on the call. I hope you are safe and healthy. As you saw in today's press release, we had another solid quarter throughout our global business, driven by consistent demand for our mission-critical tower assets. Before we turn to the accompanying charts, I would like to highlight a few specific accomplishments for the quarter. First, we met our revenue. Adjusted EBITDA consolidated AFFO expectations which I will discuss in more detail shortly. Second, we had solid organic tenant billings growth across our business led by Africa at nearly 10% and Latin America at over 7%. Third, we constructed more than 500 towers across our international footprint. And finally, we further strengthened our investment-grade balance sheet by issuing $2 billion in senior unsecured notes across multiple tenors with very attractive economics. Now, let’s turn to the details of our second quarter results. Please turn to Slide 8 and we will review our property revenue and organic tenant billings growth. Although we experienced some unfavorable FX translational impact, primarily resulting from the global pandemic, overall, we generated solid underlying revenue growth. In the interest of understanding our fundamental operational performance, I’ll be referring to growth rates for some of our key metrics on an FX neutral basis in addition to our standard as-reported basis. As Igor mentioned earlier, our second quarter consolidated property revenue of nearly $1,900 million grew on a reported basis by $44 million or 2.4% over the prior year period. And on an FX neutral basis by $158 million or 8.6%. Our U.S. segment represented 57% of our consolidated property revenue with international comprising the remaining 43%. A key contributor to our consolidated property revenue was our tenant billings revenue of $1,620 million, which grew by nearly 10%. The components of our…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Matthew Niknam [Ph]. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hey guys. Thank you for taking the question. Just two if I could. First on the U.S., if you can give us any additional color on what you are seeing in your discussions with the new T-Mobile, whether this delay is really timing-related or have there been any changes in terms of spending plan on them relative to earlier expectations? And then just secondly, on the ATM program, can you help us think about the investment opportunities you are evaluating and the decision to use equity as a percent of means of funding this relative to the debt you’ve traditionally used given where your leverage is today? Thanks.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Hey Matt. How are you? This is Tom. On the T-Mobile side, based upon everything that I think they said publicly, I think it’s fair to say that it really is just timing. And they are working through all their plans. They closed their deal in April then settled their transaction with DISH, not that long ago. So, we believe it clearly is timing. And are looking forward to really supporting them as they continue to really build out their network even further. On the ATM side, it’s good plumbing. It really is just having more flexibility. It’s not a significant number clearly, compared to general ATM programs as part of market cap. So it really is just kind of good plumbing to have a flexibility of having access to a number of different sources of capital.

Rod Smith

Analyst

And if I can, Matt, maybe I would add…

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And just a follow-up – go ahead, Rod.

Rod Smith

Analyst

I am sorry, Matt. Yes, let me just add a couple of points on the U.S. growth. Number one is, everyone kind of saw the slowdown from T-Mobile as the sorts of middle to third quarter of last year. Now that we are almost lapping that slowdown and that’s where the further way from the beginning of that slowdown, the bigger impact that it has on the organic tenant billings growth deceleration. So, the fact that they haven’t started up yet is, what’s causing us to reduce our outlook from about 5% down to about 4.5%. And the other expectations in the U.S. industry remain the same. So, we haven’t seen any changes in our expectations relative to the other carriers or anything else going on in the U.S. it really is isolated to the new T-Mobile and the timing of when they begin to spend.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And that was going to be my follow-up. I appreciate it. Thank you.

Rod Smith

Analyst

Okay.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of [Indiscernible]. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Great. Thank you. And just to follow-up on the U.S. activity, can you provide an update on how you think about the potential decommissioning that T-Mobile can do? I think the Sprint sides are – upward maybe next year. And second question on LATAM. How do you think about the growth going forward given that the macro environment is weaker and with the potential acquisition of other carriers could potentially create some churn activity. Yes. I would like to see your thoughts on how you think that could impact your growth over the next few years. Thank you.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Yes, Batiya [Ph] it’s Tom. With regard to – I’ll address the LATAM question first, I mean we are really excited about the opportunities that we continue to see down in the market, particularly in a market like Brazil which is still so underserved. I mean, if you take a look at customers per site, it’s significantly higher than what we are seeing in the United States. And so, we continue to see a – the opportunities for further densification where our build programs are continuing to grow. So we are actually very energized and our teams in the markets are very excited about the opportunities there. Yes, there is some consolidation perhaps going on in the market, but that was fully understood, fully expected. So there really no surprises there. And I think the government themselves, particularly with regards to what we are seeing in the pandemic continue to want to drive a connectivity and digital connectivity in their markets. So, we are quite excited about that. And as you all know it represents a relatively small piece of revenues. I am sorry Batiya, [Ph] second question on the U.S. side, was?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

On the T-Mobile decommissioning activity that could start potentially next year? ... with last year. So we think that, that's a good...

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Yes. No. You are right. I mean, those – a vast majority of those sites come up for renewal towards the end of next year. We believe they are obviously well positioned sites and we will likely try to mitigate as much of that churn potential as possible and hopeful that between the new build it’s going on in the marketplace as well as, DISH's expectations for building out, they will be successful in terms of mitigating that. But that’s all part of the lot of the negotiations and discussions that are going on as we speak.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Alright. Thank you.

Rod Smith

Analyst

And Batia [Ph] I will just a couple of comments on the Sprint T-Mobile, maybe I put the merger kind of in context with the U.S. market. So, you know, that the U.S. is experiencing kind of exploding growth in mobile data, about 30% a year increases. We’ve seen accelerating deployments for 5G kind of heading our way that the number of new spectrums heading into the market that will have to be built out. The carriers continue to invest heavily in 4G as they focus on their customer experience and strengthen their networks to handle the growing data demand. So all that is, really constructive in terms of what’s happening in the U.S. landscape. When you look at T-Mobile in particular, they have come with pretty significant build-out requirements. So they said that they are going to spend $40 billion over the first three years, build an additional 10 to 15 sites, particularly in some of the rural areas where they are expected to cover 97% of the population on low-band spectrum of about 75%, on mid-band spectrum within three years. So, they’ve got an awful lot of work to do. They are certainly going to be deploying capital. So we continue to believe that it’s in their best interest and good for our shareholders, as well to the extent that we can enter into an arrangement where they can have quick access to our site and potentially renegotiating the way some of the churn happens over time. So to spread that potential churn, which is we continue to believe it’s in the range of 3% to 4% of our overall property revenue. That’s the overlap piece. And we continue to expect that could be spread out over time and we could give T-Mobile easy quick access to our sites through a holistic deal which will help them deploy their network.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Got it. That’s helpful. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Atkin. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Atkin

Analyst

Yes. I wondered if you could talk a little bit more about Brazil and kind of the directionality of the organic growth rates. You talked about OI, but maybe Nextel and that consolidation, does that represent perhaps a little bit of a headwind or not big enough to matter? And then, I just wondered a little bit about India. You talked a little bit about the bad debt provision, but if you talk about just actual leasing activity in the market any changes that to kind of call out over the next couple of quarters versus what you’ve seen. Thanks.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Yes. I mean, Jon, first on Brazil, just kind of getting a little bit deeper into the market, it’s a market that we expect the wireless CapEx is going to be in the $3 billion to $4 billion range. So, obviously, very, very strong, a high growth market for us. The CapEx percent of carrier revenue is to be around 25%, which is actually a bit higher than we’ve seen in prior years consistent with last year. So we think that that’s a good sign. Their margins are in the 40%. So the carriers themselves, I think are quite well capitalized and very focused on building out their 4G overall initiatives. The local CPI is actually been down over the last several years, so was our escalators in concert with it. And that’s being really reflected in some of the 2020 escalator that we are seeing this year. But Vivo, Tim, America Movil, including Nextel, in that transaction is relatively insignificant relative to our overall growth rates. And we are seeing organic tenant billings growth of over 8% in Q2, churn was in the kind of the mid 1% to 1.7% for the year. And we expect for the year overall, billings growth is 7%. So, we are bullish on the marketplace. We think we are well positioned. We have really solid relationships with what we expect to be kind of the three main players in the marketplace. And as I mentioned before, we believe that the networks are overburdened. They have roughly 3000 to 4000 sims for sell-side. It’s really twice what we are seeing in the U.S. So, the teams are excited or bullish. We are building out sites. We have a lot of interesting things, I think, going on with the various carriers. And so, we are excited about what we expect in the marketplace. On the India side, again, if you take a look at the kind of the total growth that we’ve seen in the market, and again it’s double-digits on a total gross basis. Carrier spending continues to be strong, building out their networks. They continue to make the network investments to support the overall usage demands. I mean, I think I mentioned in some of my comments that, we really remain optimistic about the market. The structure is now much more rational. There is price competition and wireless has actually stabilized and the regulatory environment is very, very constructive. There is a significant appetite for mobile data from a customer perspective. They are using over 10 gig per month and that was even before the COVID-19 impact. So, as well as they are still using the significant legacy technologies, 2G technologies, rather than even 4G. So we think is that the network continues to get equipped as the government continues to expand its overall Digital India strategy that there is going to be a significant amount of further densification and network investment going on in the marketplace.

Jonathan Atkin

Analyst

And then, lastly on the U.S., yes, and on U.S. you talked Sprint T-Mobile at some lengths done, what about the rest of the industry? There is two other national carriers and if you think about in aggregate kind of their activity level and do you think that you are expecting there that will be different compared to year-to-date trends?

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

No. I mean, they have been very interested. I mean, very, very steady in terms of their build out. You’ve heard them kind of tweak what they expect their overall CapEx expectations are probably for the year. But for us, we’ve been very consistent. We are expecting to be so.

Jonathan Atkin

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Sure, Jon.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sami Badri. Please go ahead.

Sami Badri

Analyst

Hi. Thank you very much for the question. I just wanted to take a step back to India and just talk about – I was hoping you could give us some of your views on U.S. hyperscalers, really kind of starting to navigate that region and how that actually changes anything. And then maybe perhaps just thinking about your international strategy and what you’ve observed in India and how that could potentially happen in other markets? Does this at all change your international M&A strategy, your expansion strategy at all? Are there regions that you are going to start avoiding simply because you don’t want to get tangled up in these kinds of speed bumps along the road and just want to get your take kind of on those different dynamics there?

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

I think that the fact that we are seeing another – number of hyperscalers investing in India is a very good thing. There are significant investments being made into the networks. They see the same things that we do in terms of the kind of the digital transformation that’s going on in the marketplace and they are bringing many more applications and products to the consumers to those particular markets. And given that the wire line penetration is very, very low in that market, as well as most of the markets that we are in outside of the United States. We think that then most of that traffic to be able to utilize those applications is going to go over those wireless networks and clearly the carriers are going to want to invest in their networks to be able to support it. It’s no different than what we’ve seen here in the United States. And so, I think it’s a very good sign candidly. And I would hope that we would continue to see more of that kind of activity being in – occurring in the markets outside where we have a presence.

Sami Badri

Analyst

Got it. Thank you for that color. And then, just take me back to the U.S., and on prior earnings calls, you’ve talked about the micro datacenter opportunity and probably within the last twelve months if opportunity has quickly evolved from proof-of-concepts in 2019 and now fully funded, we see competitors and you guys have now kind of drawn the lines of the sand coming to the table. So if you could give us an update on the micro datacenter opportunity within the U.S.?

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Well, I mean, the underlying premise clearly is that, we believe the cloud is moving to the edge and we see this. There are a number of factors that are supporting it, whether if you are looking at CRAN, you are looking at what’s going on with cloud infrastructure and with the deployment of 5G, we think that enterprise customers are going to be looking for low latency access as well as cloud, kinds of capabilities out of the edge. And so, we remain very bullish on the whole opportunity. We do have a number of trial sites. I think we have five or six trial sites down in the Southeast and actually out in west. And the way we are looking at it really is that, at this point in time, there are really kind of a couple of distinct trends that we are paying attention to. First of all, on the distributed compute and then more broadly on the mobilized computing where we think that the TAM is going to be significantly higher and that we will be able to create some scale. And we've talked about the distributed compute, which is really where we are focused right now with regards to a number of our kind of trial sites. And that’s where enterprise workloads moving to the public cloud and there is a growing near-term market segment use for on and off for private cloud computing in somewhat of a hybrid solution. And so, when in many of the sites that we have, we have 50 kilowatts of power and we are providing kind of local compute capability for mid and smaller sized enterprises. And so, it’s an interesting market segment. I don’t think it’s actually being serviced, particularly well today. But clearly, that’s not the big…

Sami Badri

Analyst

Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ric Prentiss. Please go ahead.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning guys. Everybody, hope you and your family and employees are doing okay through this COVID-19 time.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

And you, as well.

Rod Smith

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, Rick.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst

Yes. Wanted to touch on the Sprint decommissioning question again. Obviously, T-Mobile has a lot of dominos they are trying to knock down in the process. But it sounded like, to Batiya’s question, you guys might be more interested in spreading the effects of the churn through holistic over time versus maybe taking a one-time payment like you did with TATA?

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Ric, it will come down to math. Right, it’s really a TBD type of an event. We expect really based upon what T-Mobile has said is that, they are going to need thousands of sites over and above what they are expecting right now after the decommissioning, right? And so, there could be an opportunity for those sites. There could be an opportunity for those sites in the hands of somebody else. And so, it’s a bit of three dimensional chess right now in terms of what these transactions with all of our customers and potential customers. I would expect that there will be churn of some sort. I don’t know it will be all at once or over an extended period of time. But we believe that longer-term, there are clearly going to be a number of offsets and if you just take a look at the wireless growth that we are seeing in the marketplace. And what we’d expect and the amount of capital that all these carriers are looking to spend and the fact that this is going to be coming into the full there, we would expect solid growth going forward. But, so it’s really a TBD at this point. I would want to give you a sense of that anything is certain, or anything is put in concrete we continue to work all those items with our customers.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst

Right. So it’s all mass negotiations, see how it plays out. Okay.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Right.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst

You mentioned there is a couple of times that obviously, we are all monitoring this very closely, there is a feeling that this needs a lot more funding to really get the network ramp going. It was a good sign to see Dave Mayo join I think, DISH as Network Deployment Head, but how are you thinking about when DISH might be starting to show up in the process as you look into 2021, 2022, 2023, how – given the funding is not there yet.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Well, I mean, they also have network requirements that they need to adhere to. And I think that the 2023 I think is the first commitment that they’ve made. So, I would expect to see them hit market in 2021. I think that's a better question for T-Mobile. I mean, I think it is a good sign. They brought in Dave Mayo. I think he'll do a terrific job there. And time will tell in terms of what it looks like. But we are there to service them and support them in any way that they feel necessary and we think that we've got a portfolio of assets that really can be helpful to them. And I think they appreciate that as well. So, but I would expect that we’ll start to see them towards the end of this year into 2021. They are not in our forecast. They are not in our guidance until we really have a more formal arrangement with them and understand what their demands are going to be, we won’t put them into our forecast.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst

Okay. And apologize you might have already answered this, I was on a call this morning. On the AFFO guidance, Slide 11, you talked about a $45 million benefit to AFFO guidance from other components. Could you unpack that what’s in that $45 million that obviously offsets the $45 million negative on cash EBITDA?

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Yes, I mean, it’s interest. It’s maintenance CapEx. It’s cash access. It’s kind of the typical group of items below EBITDA that impact AFFO that we are seeing some positive benefits from.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst

Okay. And last one for me, the CBRS auction is obviously going on right now. What are your thoughts about what that means, particularly maybe to the indoor states and what the opportunity for you guys?

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

We continue to be very positive on the indoor spot, our indoor space. We think that the unlicensed here access spectrum in the U.S. that’s a potential to really transform, if you will the overall indoor connectivity landscape. It improves the overall TAM clearly, and it reduces the overall total ownership cost. And so, we are very positive - we have the number of trials going on, Ric, as we’ve talked about in the past. But again, it’s early innings right now in terms of what that opportunity is. We have 400 DAS locations, if you will, around the country with a TAM of probably a couple thousand. But we think that given the cost components of being able to open up, feed the network, exactly TAMs would increase ten-fold. And so, what we are seeing, what that looks like, we are taking a look at what those relationships are going to look like then with the landlords across the country. But we are energized by what we think we might be able to – and how we might be able to position ourselves.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst

Thanks much.

Rod Smith

Analyst

And Ric, I’ll just give you a couple of numbers there to back up what Tom was saying about the AFFO. So, the $45 million offsets are broken down with $10 million on lower maintenance CapEx. $25 million in lower net cash interest and $10 million in lower cash taxes.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Barden, Please go ahead.

David Barden

Analyst

Hey guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Tom, I think in the opening comments, you mentioned that you saw that CPI did bring in some of the international markets affecting the organic growth. I was wondering if you could kind of put some numbers around that. And then, sort of another situation unfolding in Latin America is the Telefonica RAN sharing agreement with AT&T. I think that there is just been a lack of certainty around what that will ultimately look like and you guys have talked about having some engagement there to maybe try to create a holistic relationship down there. Could you kind of update us on any progress on that front? Thanks a lot.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Yes. Sure, Dave. I think on the CPI side, the escalator, I think in the quarter was roughly 3.7% and that really, again the way they work, it works off with the 2019 kind of the inflation number is which drive what the escalator would be. So our escalator is down. And if you think about, even looking at Brazil for example, the growth rates in Brazil, my sense, we are up in the kind of even the 10% range in the last couple of years if I recall. And we are now down in kind of that 7%, 8% range. And so, it has a significant impact, if you will kind of going forward. And as you know it’s very volatile on a year-to-year basis, but it can impact the overall organic growth rate by a couple 100 basis points one way or another. With regards to Mexico, a fair question in terms of Telefonica and their interest in the marketplace. We have a terrific relationship with AT&T in the market and we are working closely with both Telefonica and AT&T right now on that transition and what that might look like over the next several years. And so, it’s a TBD. We are in the middle of it. And as I said, I think we are really well positioned to be able to support both our customers as they transition their network.

David Barden

Analyst

Great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Horan. Please go ahead.

Tim Horan

Analyst

Thanks. Tom, regarding the – do you think there is an opportunity longer term for you guys to deploy more equipment as we kind of virtualize the networks more and the carriers can kind of share the equipment, particularly the cable companies are kind of entering the market are going to want capacity, but maybe not trying to deploy their own equipment. I know you've done some of this in past and well in each segments, but just any thoughts around that?

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Tim, are you talking about O-RAN or?

Tim Horan

Analyst

Yes, yes.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Yes. It’s very interesting. I mean, I do think the whole O-RAN opportunity which we’ve seen in other markets, by the way, we’ve seen in other parts of the world is definitely starting to take hold here in the United States and ultimately we could see even the large carriers looking to take certain segments of their spectrum, certain segments of their technology and really opening it up. It kind of ties to my thoughts before in terms of kind of that cloud even becoming closer and closer to the edge. Now, keep in mind that, that’s kind of what happens behind the curtain. So, that’s happening back on the RAN side away from the impact on the towercos. So, my intent is that any opportunity for the carriers, wireless carriers and potential new players in the marketplace to be able to bring down their total cost of ownership will then allow them to have more capital available to spend on the RAN, which is really where we come in, right? And so, we don’t expect any of the kind of the O-RAN implications to impact at all what’s happening from the site out to the device. And as I said, it’s in fact the total cost of ownership comes down as a result of the kind of the open nature of the infrastructure that might allow more capital to be able to spent on where we come in, which is from the tower out to the device. And so, we are cautiously optimistic on the opportunity for O-RAN in the United State, as well as many of our international markets.

Tim Horan

Analyst

And kind of related on the technology front, do you think carriers are still favoring macros over small cells or if you are talking to the carriers, how are they feeling on small cell deployments at this point over the next couple of years?

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

It all comes down to band, it all comes down to densification. We don’t see any change. I mean, the economics are still clearly that the macro tower can be able to support much more efficiently their customer base. Now there are going to be certain locations, there may be certain technologies, certain band that can be better utilized and supportive at a small cell than in those dense urban markets. But we don’t see it any different right now. Those dense urban markets, the New York City kind of things, just because of interference, talking about high bands, just like what Verizon is doing today. So, I don’t expect really any change to that. It’s going to be a function of band. It’s going to be a function of the densification of the markets that they are trying to serve, really the topography of what they are trying to serve. But we don’t see any change at all and they use the small cells versus macro.

Tim Horan

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And your final question today comes from the line of Colby Synesael. Please go ahead.

Colby Synesael

Analyst

Great. Two if I may. There has been some press reports of late that Vodafone Idea may have skipped out on its June payments to lease some of the tower operators and I am curious if you are one of those, or if everything you are doing is, I think, just cautionary and being trying to get ahead of that. And to the extent that they haven’t actually made their June or perhaps July payment, do you think that, that's going to last until the AGR situation is settled? Or is this maybe just a month or two? And then secondly, I am just curious, what do you think your exit velocity is in terms of U.S. organic growth in the fourth quarter of this year? And what does that really imply, I guess, for potential growth in 2021? And I am sure you can appreciate a lot of investors are trying to get a sense of what is that magnitude of acceleration we could potentially think. And when we start to balance that out from the comments, Rod that you mentioned about trying to flatten out the churn. Just trying to start to frame out how to think about what that could look like? I appreciate you don’t want to give guidance, but clearly a big focus for investors.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Yes, So, Colby, let me try to address a couple and Rod can add a few comments as well. On the whole, Vodafone India situation, I mean, I don’t want to get into specifics there. I think if you step back and if you take a look at where the government is, I mean the government has definitely advocated for having three strong players in the marketplace. They are currently working through as the other carriers are with the Supreme Court in terms of where that final AGR issue is going to land. We are hopeful that there will be some resolution to this even over the next 30 to 45 days or so. There is a hearing I think in mid-August for the carriers that are no longer and providing service. But we hope that that will provide some guidance for how the payments – the extended payments will be made – have to be made by the carriers themselves. I mean, they’ve made some sizable good base installments, as best I can tell in terms of what is owed in the marketplace. And they are aggressively trying to restructure to save cost and compete in the marketplace. And so, yes, I mean, there is some slow paying going on in the marketplace. We are working very closely with them as we would be working with any customer who is going through a similar situation. So more to come. You saw what some of our expectations were relative to how we looked at outlook for the balance of the year. But kind of given the direction of the government, given what we are seeing in the marketplace, again we remain optimistic and cautiously optimistic about their ability to continue and to grow. I am sorry, Colby your question on the U.S. side was, the exit rate. It will largely be a – candidly a function of the kind of growth that we are going to be seeing later in the year by the various carriers in terms of their overall investments in their network. You heard Rod talked about that we are talking about an overall growth rate based upon what we are seeing right now and kind of that 4.5-ish range. So, it’s down a little bit, again, largely tied – almost exclusively tied to the timing of T-Mobile. So, we are optimistic that T-Mobile will pickup pace and we’ll see that increase in activity. And I think that will bode well foregoing into 2021. And the whole notion of the churn relative to Sprint, as we talked about before, that's a TBD in terms of where does the math sets aligned for us and where can we best service our customers in terms of whether that will be over an extended period of time or whether that would be taken more upfront. So, more to come on that one.

Rod Smith

Analyst

And Colby, maybe I’ll just add a couple of comments on the accounts receivable issue. Not specific to Vodafone, but Tom covered that up. But just to put it into context, Q1 rolling into Q2, our accounts receivable has been very stable. So we didn’t see any increase in our overall accounts receivable across the globe. Our DSO numbers are still in the mid to upper 30s. That’s consistent Q2 over Q1. So we’ve been very pleased that not only in India, but also in terms of the COVID-19 impacts around the globe, we’ve had very stable accounts receivable balances from Q1 to Q2 where our net receivables on the books at the end of Q1 was about $620 million. It's actually about $585 million at the end of Q2. With that said, you will see in our numbers that we took a bad debt reserve charge in Q2 of about $25 million. And then, we also built into the back half of the forecast an additional $75 million. Those are both reserves at this point. So, we do expect that much of that will be collected. It just may – it may take us a little bit longer. So, we are trying to be cautious for the back half of the year. I’d also let you know that we have the balances in our accounts receivable ledger that are over 90 days are 100% reserves coming out of Q2. So, again, we look that as a pretty comfortable position. Maybe it’s conservative position. Their reserves are not actually bad debt write-offs yet. So we do expect to collect a lot of that. It’s just a matter of when. And of course, Vodafone is tied to AGR and we'll see how that gets resolved here soon.

Colby Synesael

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions.

Tom Bartlett

Analyst

Thanks everybody for joining. Have a great day and stay healthy and safe.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Teleconferencing. You may now disconnect.