Operator
Operator
Greetings and welcome to the AMG's First Quarter 2016 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host Ms. Selene Oh, Vice President, Investor Relations for AMG. Please go ahead. Selene Oh - Vice President-Finance & Investor Relations: Thank you for joining AMG to discuss the results for the first quarter of 2016. In this conference call, certain matters discussed will constitute forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those projected due to a number of factors including, but not limited to, those referenced in the company's Form 10-K and other filings we make with the SEC from time to time. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during the call. AMG will provide on its website at www.amg.com a replay of the call and a copy of the announcement of our results for the quarter as well as a reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. With us on the line to discuss the company's results for the quarter are: Sean Healey, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Nate Dalton, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Jay Horgen, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'll turn the call over to Sean Healey. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Selene, and good morning, everyone. AMG reported economic earnings per share of $2.94 for the first quarter of 2016 which is an increase over the first quarter of 2015 notwithstanding declines in global market indices over the past year. Assets under management were $642 billion at quarter end, an increase of 5% in the quarter driven by a successful execution across all aspects of our growth strategy including the completion of two new Affiliate investments during the quarter and the excellent investment performance and net flows of our existing Affiliates. As Jay will describe further even in a relatively difficult environment for the asset management industry, we see continued earnings growth ahead. We were very pleased with our net client cash flows of over $5 billion into our Affiliates actively-managed strategy this quarter which were notable especially given the muted investor risk appetite across the industry more broadly. With more than $110 billion in net inflows over the past five years, we continue to benefit from the ongoing success of our global distribution strategy including the marketing efforts of our Affiliates as well as the strength of our global distribution platform. And importantly our organic growth also reflects the quality of our boutique Affiliates and the impact of our strategic focus on high value rapid alpha generating products including global equities and alternatives. The best boutique firms have a competitive advantage in generating excess returns in these product areas as demonstrated by the outstanding long-term performance records of our Affiliates and it is clear from AMG's organic growth results that clients continue to prefer boutiques across a range of differentiated return oriented strategies. The advantages of boutiques in alpha oriented products are especially evident in the alternatives area. While there has been much discussion recently about the challenges facing hedge funds especially in certain strategies there are two points that are important to keep in mind. First, volatility among managers is both evitable and healthy and over time it will benefit the best firms with the strongest franchises. Second, the alternative product area encompasses a much broader range of strategies than hedge funds alone and during the first quarter of 2016 AMG's Affiliates continued to generate strong investments performance and net flows across a wide array of alternative products. In an environment of low returns, clients around the world from sophisticated large institutions to individual retail investors increasingly seek diversifying and uncorrelated return streams and they are expanding allocations to a wide cross-section of alternative strategies. With a broad range of liquid and illiquid strategies from industry leaders including AQR, BlueMountain, Pantheon, and ValueAct, AMG is well positioned to meet an increasing client appetite for the best alternative products. Likewise, we also see substantial opportunities for global equity managers given the ongoing erosion of home country bias and continued globalization of client portfolios and the outstanding global equity managers such as Artemis, Harding Loevner, Genesis, Veritas and Tweedy, Browne; are clearly positioned to benefit and while the prevailing popular narrative is that active investing under performs passive, as we all known averages by definition do not tell a complete story. AMG recently published the results of research focusing on the investment performance of boutique firms over 20 years with a finding that boutiques clearly outperformed broad indices over the period. Our Affiliates long-term performance track records across many market environments speak for themselves, and it's clear to us that there will always be strong client demand for high conviction differentiated actively managed strategies. Finally turning to new investments, we were very pleased to complete our investments in Systematica and Baring Asia during the quarter, two outstanding new Affiliates which enhance the diversity of our alternative product set. As exemplified by these and other new Affiliate investments, the founders of leading independent investment firms want to create an enduring franchise which will persist across generations while preserving their operational and investment culture and autonomy, and they need a permanent ownership solution to enable them to achieve these goals. The largest and most successful boutiques around the world attach special importance to finding a permanent partner with global scale and a demonstrable and outstanding long-term track record of partnerships with other excellent firms. It's clear from the discussions we're having with prospective Affiliates that AMG's preeminent position as a partner to leading boutique firms is becoming more important than ever, and we're extremely optimistic about our forward prospects to invest in the finest boutique firms globally. While volatile markets create challenges, they also reveal opportunities and the transaction environment remains highly favorable for AMG. We are very pleased with the quality and diversity of our new investment pipeline. We're confident in our ability to make additional accretive investments in new Affiliates, and together with the organic growth of our existing Affiliates we are uniquely positioned for continued strong earnings growth going forward. With that, I'll turn it to Nate to discuss our Affiliate results in more detail. Nathaniel Dalton - President & Chief Operating Officer: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. As Sean said, in a quarter marked by significant volatility, our Affiliates including especially our largest Affiliates performed very well. We generated good organic growth with $5.1 billion in positive net client cash flows coming in across all three of our distribution channels. Before getting into the details of the quarter, let me start with a couple of the themes that cut across our business. First, we continue to benefit from some durable trends you've heard us talk about many times before, and Sean mentioned a couple of these. The highest quality boutiques are able to generate outperformance across return-oriented product categories. Institutions and their intermediaries are continuing to barbell their portfolios between passive exposures on the one side and active exposures on the other, where they were seeking their excess return. Because of their ability to outperform, high quality boutiques such as our Affiliates are very well positioned to gather these return seeking assets. There's a related point here also which is that boutiques are very well suited to nimbly evolve their products for these opportunities. This is a trait inherent in the entrepreneurial spirit of successful boutiques and one that we see in our own Affiliates. We believe all of these trends contributed to the $110 billion in net positive flows over the past five years that Sean referenced. Second, let me take a moment to frame our alternatives book for you. Our alternatives business is made up of private equity, infrastructure, various macro, multi strategy and other non-traditional products as well as traditional hedge funds in areas such as long/short equity, relative value credit and managed futures. All of these provide different alternative exposures to client portfolios. We continue to have very strong alternative flows across all three of our distribution channels. In fact, this was the fifth consecutive quarter that our alternative strategies have had positive flows in all three channels which is a testament to the breadth of our offerings as well the ability of our Affiliates to evolve their products for the various channels while staying true to their investment disciplines. We think the strong investor interest in alternative product is likely to continue or even accelerate. Third, specific to the institutional channel, I would note a couple things. In terms of the first quarter, growth inflows were muted relative to our very strong longer term track record, as investors slowed down the pace at which they put capital to work during the market volatility last quarter. On the other hand, we did not have any significant idiosyncratic outflows in the quarter. Now, while institutional flows will always be lumpy, looking ahead we feel very good given the long-term trends we've talked about and the activity level in terms of RFPs, searches and finals (9:280). Fourth and finally, we obviously had a very good flow quarter in our Mutual Fund channel, particularly in alternative and global equity funds. In addition. the outflows from our U.S. equity funds slowed significantly as especially Yacktman has been performing very well during the volatility of the last four quarters. Looking ahead, given the strength in our position, the diversity of products with good traction and the evolution of new products, we continue to believe there is a significant long-term opportunity to drive material growth in retail. Now, turning to our product categories and performance for the first quarter and starting with alternatives. Across our Affiliate group we are one of the largest managers of alternative products in the world, and as I described earlier, we have a diverse portfolio across product categories, investment styles, and including large scale exposure to both liquid and illiquid products is truly a differentiating feature. In terms of performance, and starting on the more liquid side, in the quarter a number of strategies at AQR delivered solid absolute and relative performance, notably managed futures, global risk premium, long/short equity and equity market neutral. Our new Affiliate Systematica also had a good quarter as its flagship BlueTrend strategy featured strong positive returns in the quarter. Although you may have seen from publicly available data that many managed features products including some managed by Systematica and AQR had a pullback in April. Lastly, major strategies at First Quadrant including currency and essential beta delivered good returns in the quarter. On the illiquid side, returns from Pantheon's infrastructure offerings and co-investments remained quite strong and they continue to diversify their product set. For example, broadening their successful infrastructure team into real assets in 2015 and they will be in the market raising real assets fund later this year. Finally, ValueAct had a more challenging quarter, as they underperformed their benchmarks, although they continue to have an excellent long-term track record. Now, turning to our equity products, one theme I would highlight is that we have a number of Affiliates with significant value disciplines as part of their investment process. For the first time in several years, value meaningfully outperformed growth in the quarter and a number of our Affiliates benefited from this. Starting with the global developed markets category, this value theme was evident as Tweedy, Browne's flagship Global Value Fund outperformed its benchmarks and peers by a sizable margin in the quarter, further improving their category leading track record. In addition, Harding Loevner continued to deliver good returns in the quarter across their international and global equity strategies as they added to their excellent long-term records while AQR also delivered solid performance in the quarter. On the other hand, Artemis underperformed these benchmarks while they still maintain good long-term performance records in their major non-U.S. equity strategies. Emerging markets had the best returns of the major equity asset classes and our Affiliates performed well in the quarter. In the category, Genesis and Harding Loevner put its solid, absolute and relative returns adding to their excellent long-term track records of outperformance. Trilogy also generated good relative returns in their emerging markets strategy while AQR was in line with the MSCI EM Index in the quarter and has excellent relative returns over the long term. Finally, with respect to our U.S. equities, Affiliates with a significant evaluation component generally outperform their benchmarks and peers in the quarter. This include Yacktman whose recently reopened funds featured top decile rankings in the quarter. In addition, major products at GW&K, River Road, SouthernSun and TimesSquare outperformed in the quarter. Now, turning to flows and starting with the institutional channel, while I remind you that flows are inherently lumpy. In the quarter, we had net inflows of $285 million. In addition to the major themes I noted earlier, the key drivers of net inflows from an asset class perspective were alternatives both liquid and illiquid and emerging markets equities offset by outflows from U.S. and other equities. From an Affiliate perspective, key contributors to positive flows were AQR, Harding Loevner, Pantheon and Systematica. In the Mutual Fund channel, we had net inflows of $3.4 billion in the quarter, in addition to the major positive themes I noted earlier. This quarter we also benefited from some seasonality in U.S. as tax deferred accounts funded in the first quarter some of which have a meaningful allocation to return seeking assets. From an asset class perspective net inflows were driven by alternatives in global and emerging markets equities and continue to be offset a bit by U.S. equities although further trends are continuing to improve there. In our High Net Worth channel we had record in flows of $1.3 billion for the quarter. Key contributors to this quarter's strong flows were global and emerging markets equities, alternatives and municipal bonds. Finally let me give you some color more broadly on the contribution of our global distribution teams this quarter. Within AMG Funds, we've established real traction from the investments we've made over the last 18 months with growing gross sales and especially in platform driven sales this last quarter. Institutionally, we've good traction with clients across the world dominated by alternatives and global equities very much consistent with the broader trends I described earlier. We continue to have a strong and growing pipeline of new opportunities including some that got pushed from the fourth quarter given the market volatility. Looking ahead, our Affiliates have excellent long-term track records across a wide range of strategies and a proven ability to adapt to the evolving needs of the marketplace while staying true to their investment disciplines. Because of this, we are very optimistic about our ability to continue to drive significant positive flows across all three of our distribution channels both from our Affiliates selling efforts as well as those of our complementary global distribution teams. With that I will turn it to Jay. Jay C. Horgen - Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Thank you, Nate. As Sean discussed we are pleased with our first quarter results which included an increase in assets under management of 5% as compared to the prior quarter primarily due to significant growth from net client cash flows and new investments. Given the strength and diversity of our Affiliates and the substantial cash generated by the scale of our business, we continue to produce stable and growing earnings even in periods of market volatility. As you saw in the release, we reported economic earnings per share of $2.94 for the first quarter which included net performance fees of $0.09. On a GAAP basis we reported earnings per share of $1.92. Now turning to more specific modeling items. For the first quarter our EBITDA was $215.7 million and the ratio of our EBITDA to end-of-period assets under management was approximately 13.4 basis points or approximately 13 basis points excluding performance fees. These figures include a full quarter impact of EBITDA from Systematica and Baring Asia which closed at the beginning of January. In the second quarter of 2016 we expect this ratio to be approximately 13.5 basis points. With regard to our taxes, our effective GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 34.3% and our cash tax rate was 20.4%. Going forward, for modeling purposes we expect our GAAP tax rate to be 33% and our cash tax rate to be 20%. Intangible related deferred taxes for the first quarter were $22.1 million, and in the second quarter we expect this number to remain at approximately $22 million. Our share reported amortization for the first quarter was $34.4 million, which includes $14.2 million of amortization from Affiliates accounted for under the equity method. For the second quarter, we expect our share of amortization to remain at approximately $34 million. Our share of interest expense for the first quarter was $22.3 million, and in the second quarter, we expect our share of interest expense to remain at approximately $22 million. Our economic items for the first quarter were a negative $1.1 million which included non-cash imputed gain of $1.7 million related to our contingent payment obligations. For modeling purposes, we expect other economic items to be approximately $1 million per quarter. Turning to our balance sheet, given the outlook for new investments that Sean described we continue to position our balance sheet to have the capacity and flexibility to execute on our new investment strategy while also returning capital to shareholders. In the first quarter we closed on two new investments and repurchased $33 million in shares. Now turning to guidance, we are raising our 2016 guidance as we now expect economic earnings per share to be in the range of $12.70 to $14.20. This guidance range assumes our normal model convention of actual market performance through yesterday for the current quarter and 2% quarterly market growth beginning in the third quarter of 2016. We also assumed share repurchases equal to 50% of expected annual economic net income over the course of 2016 which results in an expected weighted average share count of approximately $54 million for the year. The lower end of our guidance includes a modest contribution from performance fees and organic growth while the upper end assumes a more robust contribution from both performance fees and net client cash flows. As always, these assumptions do not include earnings from future new investments and are based on our current expectation of Affiliate growth rates performance in the mix of Affiliate contribution to our earnings. Of course, substantial changes in markets and earnings contribution of our Affiliates would impact these expectations. Now we'll be happy to answer your questions.