Earnings Labs

Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Tue, May 3, 2016

$293.68

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the AMG's First Quarter 2016 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host Ms. Selene Oh, Vice President, Investor Relations for AMG. Please go ahead. Selene Oh - Vice President-Finance & Investor Relations: Thank you for joining AMG to discuss the results for the first quarter of 2016. In this conference call, certain matters discussed will constitute forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those projected due to a number of factors including, but not limited to, those referenced in the company's Form 10-K and other filings we make with the SEC from time to time. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during the call. AMG will provide on its website at www.amg.com a replay of the call and a copy of the announcement of our results for the quarter as well as a reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. With us on the line to discuss the company's results for the quarter are: Sean Healey, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Nate Dalton, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Jay Horgen, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'll turn the call over to Sean Healey. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Selene, and good morning, everyone. AMG reported economic earnings per share of $2.94 for the first quarter of 2016 which is an increase over the first quarter of 2015 notwithstanding declines in global market indices over the past year. Assets under management were $642 billion at quarter end, an increase of 5% in the quarter driven by…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time we'll be conducting a question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from the line of William Katz with Citigroup. Please proceed with you question.

William Raymond Katz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay, thanks so much, good morning everyone. I appreciate taking the questions. You mentioned, I think during the quarter you had accelerated, I think some movement with the shelf financing and I guess taking the concert with just the ongoing description of "excellent pipeline". Can you talk a little bit about maybe the motivation behind that and what kind of deals you might be looking at this point in time? Jay C. Horgen - Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: So on the, just on the shelf specifically Bill, of course, shelf is just a normal course filing, it lets you issue securities off of it. We had to do it anyway later this year in August, but we did accelerate it. And of course we always want to be in a position to be prepared to execute on our new investment pipeline, which as you heard from Sean is a strong pipeline. So I think we're in a good position to do that for the balance of the year. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. I wouldn't add much to what Jay said and to our prepared remarks, as you could hopefully tell from the tone. We were in a very strong position and working very hard on -- broadly but especially in the new investment area. Of course no fundamental change in strategy. So I wouldn't read anything into the shelf other than the normal kind of preparation for new investment opportunities.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Kim with Sandler O'Neill. Please proceed with your question. Michael S. Kim - Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP: Hey, guys; good morning. Maybe just a question for Jay on the new guidance range. Just wondering if you could maybe give us a bit more color in terms of the different moving parts, particularly as it relates to the incremental market appreciation last quarter. And then sort of just a sense of the marks thus far this quarter relative to kind of that 2% convention, Thanks. Jay C. Horgen - Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Thanks, Michael. And as you know it was a volatile quarter. So let's start from the beginning. We did raise our guidance for 2016 to $12.70 to $14.20. And it was really based on two factors, the higher mark for AUM since our last call and an updated performance fee assumption for the year, and so I'll take both of those. The building blocks on the market assumption -- we last gave guidance on February 2, which is our fourth quarter call. At that time our market blend was down about 4%, but has since rebounded towards the end of the quarter, which you can see in our AUM table. In the second quarter to date, through May 2, we estimate our market blend up approximately 1%, which is in line with broader markets. Just to remind you and you mentioned the model convention, in the quarter we removed for model purposes the 2% beta assumption and we replace it with what we experience quarter-to-date which is the 1% I just mentioned. So in summary from the point of our last call till the updated guidance today, our model is up 4%. And then as you know, thereafter starting in the third quarter we assume 2% quarterly market growth for the third and fourth quarter to round out our 2016 market assumption. On performance fees, we've updated that assumption as well, given that we're four months into the year, and while it's still early, we now expect our performance fees to be approximately 8% at the midpoint of our range, just down modestly since the last time we gave guidance. As you also know the breadth and diversity of our performance fee opportunity creates a positive asymmetry. It decreases the probability of achieving the low end of our guidance while at the top end there's a greater expected value, so there is asymmetry in our performance fee opportunity. And then finally, just to remind you, as I say every time we talk about performance fees, we only account for performance fee when we recognize them to cash.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dan Fannon with Jefferies. Please proceed with our question.

Daniel Thomas Fannon - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with our question.

Thanks; good morning. If we could talk a bit about flows, you kind of characterized the institutional kind of gross sales number as being low, and we can see it's the lowest number since the second quarter 2014. I guess a little more color, if it's just, you think it's just timing, I think you gave a pretty positive outlook, but a little more color maybe at the Affiliate level or product level or even region as to maybe where you are seeing strengths or even the weakness. Nathaniel Dalton - President & Chief Operating Officer: Great; so this is Nate; I'll take that one. So as you know we said that gross sales were a little lower than prior periods and I think there was no single factor that really drove it. We called out one which is this quarter sort of risk aversion, delayed funding and we definitely saw some of that. Also, I'll just say in the last quarter we didn't really see any lumpy capital commitments to sort of loan lock periods which is something that happens with some frequency. And then, again, a little bit at the margin seasonality, Q1 is often a somewhat light quarter. But again, so now moving to looking ahead to the current quarter the second quarter and looking ahead, repeat that the institutional flows are all lumpy and it's still early, but we feel very good both because of the long-term trends we talk about as well as we can see the things that have already funded this quarter, and some of those are the ones we talked about that slipped, a few of the things that we already funded this quarter, and then just look at the level of activity in RFPs and finals and whatnot. So, we feel very good about that. And in terms of geography and product, I said the geography is quite broad U.S., non-U.S. really globally, the activity level is very high and then in terms of product, I think it's themes we've been talking about which is especially alternatives in non-U.S. equities are the places we still continue to see the strongest institutional traction. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: And broad based among Affiliates, majority of the largest Affiliates all had positive flows.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Craig Siegenthaler with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question. Craig Siegenthaler - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Thanks, good morning. So, mutual fund channel AQR contributed a very high percentage of your total flows in 1Q, but did AQR also contribute a high percentage of institutional sales in 1Q or is it more balanced? Nathaniel Dalton - President & Chief Operating Officer: So, the institutional sales were very balanced and broad based just to do that piece first, but then when you look at the gross sales in the mutual fund channel, look obviously AQR had a very good quarter and is doing a very good job building up their mutual fund business. But if you sort of look at the five or six largest contributors it was AQR, but it was also – there was couple of very strong global equities, global international equities through firms like Harding Loevner and even on the U.S. equity side especially on sub-advisory firms like Frontier with their Vanguard relationship continue to do very well. So it's – there is good contribution from a number of Affiliates there as well.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Shutler with William Blair. Please proceed with your question. Chris C. Shutler - William Blair & Co. LLC: Hey, guys, good morning. As you look at the strategies that have been generating the most flows in recent quarters, are you approaching a point where there are capacity constraints in any of those strategies? Thanks. Jay C. Horgen - Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: So, look I think when you talk about the capacity issues, I guess what I would do is I'd probably sort of say is let's step back for a second, just make sure we are all grounded. And there's absolutely some places where there are capacity issues. When you look at the largest contributors to flows in recent quarters, I don't think it's been so much of an issue and I will say that for a couple of reasons. So one is we do have Affiliates in there who are managing their capacity, certainly managing their pace of flows as they're coming in, but a lot of the places we are seeing flows and we alluded to this in our prepared remarks with talking about the product development opportunity from our Affiliates that are seeing good flows. There is a lot of good large capacity product coming online at Affiliates and so when I say coming online what I mean by that is they're getting into that sweet spot where they've got the track record, they've got enough assets that's critical math and they can drive flows and so that good three-year track record kind of range. But even in some of these newer areas it's – even that's less important. So plenty of new products coming online and some of it's also, and I think we talked about this as well, the new packaging theme, right which is – and that is a place where we can really be helpful, which is bringing institutional products into retail channels or bringing products that are performing very well in one geography into another. And then the final thing I'll say, it's also very important to remember that we have a sort of unique product development opportunity, which is this ability to bring on new Affiliates right. So, as you look back at the last firms we talked about Systematica and Baring, those are very different, unique, highly attractive product sets today, as well as good product development opportunities within each of those firms and we're starting to work with both of them on ways to both broaden the geographic reach of their distribution, but also, to work with them bringing their newer products to market. And so, we're very excited about the new product development opportunity.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Brian Bedell - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, good morning folks. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Brian Bedell - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Nate maybe just talk a little bit about again about the new sales rate if you can comment on, is the pace so far in the second quarter on a pro rata basis exceeding that in the case new funded wins in the first quarter. So I guess that we're running a bit above say $3 billion to $4 billion – or $3 billion actually. And then secondly if you can talk also about how you are thinking about, maybe Sean, how you're looking about Department of Labor for the share rules whether that changes any kind of strategy within your sales into 401(k) plans and IRA. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Maybe I'll try both and Nate add in if I miss something. I think starting from the second part of your question the DOL, I think we said at the time that we didn't really seen an impact. In fact the thing that was ultimately put in place was more benign than I think many industry observers had feared and definitely not having any kind of a material impact in our business. With respect to flows and this is really just echoing what Nate and I have said in our prepared remarks and Nate earlier in response to a question. We see continued good momentum in retail which is growth in the funds that are having positive flows and kind of abatement or lessening of outflows in some other areas and generally good performance across the group. And then institutionally we see very good momentum and there were some elements of Q1 that were a little anomalous but without guiding specifically we feel very positive and optimistic about our forward flow opportunity in institutional as well and you put them together and that's obviously…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research. Please proceed with your question.

Patrick Davitt - Autonomous Research US LP

Analyst · Autonomous Research. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, good morning and thanks. Kind of a longer term question around what feels like a much more increased regulatory environment perhaps at mangers. Curious, one, do you feel like you're equipped to provide compliance in risk management for smaller boutiques that may not be prepared for what's coming through the pipeline and is that starting to factor into your conversations with potentially new Affiliates? Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I think there is nothing on the horizon that is more than sand in the gears I would say. I mean, the environment is increasingly complex both here and around the world and we understand that, and there is certainly heightened awareness among firms broadly and it is probably more of a conservation, more of an element in the conversations that we have with prospective Affiliates. But it's certainly not a dominant feature. The very best firms are well equipped to manage these issues, but recognize that if you have a global partner with capabilities and experience around the world both directly and then coordinating among other Affiliates that there is of course an advantage. And so I think, that the regulatory effects generally are setting aside the element of regulation that is positive and needed much out of the regulatory regime as I said is probably decreasing efficiency and making the business more challenging for all asset management firms. But I think on a relative basis it certainly positions us and our Affiliates very well. So, there's nothing as we look forward that that gives us any particular concern.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mike Carrier with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Roger Carrier - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, thanks guys. When we look at the Affiliates like line up and then when you think about performance, I think from an allocation standpoint, you guys definitely have the product areas where we're seeing flows going. I guess just on performance overall particularly on the alternative and the international equity if you look at the overall kind of AMG portfolio with all the Affiliates, when you compare may be like this three to five-year track record versus a year ago or three years ago, like how are things looking from like the competitive standpoint? Meaning the allocation trends are favorable, but are the performance trends across most of the Affiliates relatively strong? And then just a quick one on the High Net Worth just wanted to get any color on that because obviously that was strong and just wanted to see if there is anymore outlook in terms of what's driving that? Thanks. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Maybe I'll answer at a higher level and talk about client demand trends and then let Nate me pick up the second part of your question around specific Affiliates. I think the trends that have been in place – well, across the industry, I think we are still a bit swimming against the current in terms of where industry flow trends are generally, and you can judge that by the results that you've seen our peers put up and what you know about the industry generally. But I think if you look underneath and say, where are the most successful firms gaining share and getting positive flows, and it really is around barbelling and recognizing, that notwithstanding what we read in the popular press, the very best high-active share alpha-oriented equity managers, especially non-U.S. equity and alternative…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question. Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thanks, good morning, everybody. Was hoping you guys could comment on the contribution of AQR to flows kind of overall. We obviously can see the retail channel, but I guess more broadly when it comes to performance of your quant Affiliates whether it's AQR, First Quadrant et cetera, first quarter was a pretty funky quarter with a lot of volatility. So I was just wondering if you could comment on how each of them have performed over the course of the first quarter may be on an absolute basis as well as relative to the benchmark? Nathaniel Dalton - President & Chief Operating Officer: So, I think broadly and I think we said some of this in our prepared remarks. I think broadly the quantitative measures, including AQR and we called that in a number of their products as well as I believe we called out FQs products in both currency and risk parity. I think they had good quarters and both – so from a performance standpoint both were strong positive contributors. From a flow standpoint, again as we said earlier I think the AQR guys are doing a fantastic job, but when you look at the flow profile that really is a combination of firms like AQR as well as the fundamental global and even this quarter as I mentioned sort of U.S. equity firms you could see contributing. Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from line of Alex Paris with Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question.

Alexander Paris - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, guys most of my questions have been asked and answered. I did have one last question though. Based on your comments with regard to the pipeline, the pipeline appears strong. I think you even said Sean that the volatility of the first quarters may have pushed out some discussions from the quarters into future quarters. Jay, I guess this question this for you. Looking at the current balance sheet what is the capacity for additional acquisitions, excluding potential future financings? Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Let me answer that, maybe Jay you can add in as appropriate. I don't think I said that the volatility in the first quarter has pushed things out. I think that reference was around the pipeline in terms of new client mandates as opposed to new Affiliate investments. And so with the new Affiliates investments, I think the opportunity set, the environment, our relative position are really as good as they can be. And we feel quite positive about the opportunity to add new Affiliates from a universe of a broad universe of outstanding firms and where we're going to choose to invest and really the most outstanding firms who fit both within our culture and philosophy, but also of course the quality and commitment to building and enduring franchise. And so we see that opportunity set that challenge that Jay always has is to manage our capital position in a way that maintains substantial flexibility. I think if you look over the last five years or beyond indeed that, almost the entirety of our corporate history we've had I think very effective capital management, we've had a commitment to not holding a lot of cash on the balance sheet, to returning cash especially in the form of repurchases to…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is a follow-up from the line of Michael Kim with Sandler O'Neill. Please proceed with your question. Michael S. Kim - Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP: Hey guys thanks for taking my follow-up. Just curious to get your thoughts on a potential exit in terms of how that might impact any of your Affiliates from more of a structural standpoint. And then, assuming a step up in cost related to some type of transition, just how you're thinking about that dynamic just given kind of the revenue sharing arrangements? Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I think, we are not that concerned even for the UK-based Affiliates, they're making their plan as you would expect prudently. But don't expect any major disruption, and at the highest level we don't expect it to have of course, it's possible. And so, prudence dictates that we make contingency plans both at the highest level but at each individual Affiliate as appropriate. So it's something that of course we'll all pay attention to but not, not something that we're losing a lot of sleep over.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Mr. Healey there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back to you for any final remarks. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, again, for joining us this morning. As you've heard, we're pleased with our continued earnings growth through the first quarter of 2016 and we are confident in our ability to continue to create shareholder value through both organic growth of our existing Affiliates as well as accretive investments in new Affiliates. We look forward to speaking with you again in August. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.