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Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 2, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the AMG Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Selene Oh, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin. Selene Oh - Vice President-Finance & Investor Relations: Thank you for joining AMG to discuss the results for the fourth quarter of 2015. In this conference call, certain matters discussed will constitute forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those projected due to a number of factors including, but not limited to, those referenced in the company's Form 10-K and other filings we make with the SEC from time to time. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call. AMG will provide on its website at www.amg.com a replay of the call and a copy of our announcement of our results for the quarter as well as a reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. With us on the line to discuss the company's results for the quarter are: Sean Healey, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Nate Dalton, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Jay Horgen, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'll turn the call over to Sean Healey. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Selene, and good morning, everyone. AMG reported economic earnings per share of $3.61 for the fourth quarter and $12.55 for the full year. Notwithstanding declines in global equity indices, AMG generated strong results, including year-over-year earnings growth of 10%, and excellent execution in our new investments area with the addition of six outstanding new Affiliates, which diversify and broaden…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question. Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Great. Good morning, everybody. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Morning. Jay C. Horgen - Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Morning. Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Sean, I wanted to pick up on the comments you made around the pipeline that you guys are seeing, particularly with respect to active equity. Maybe spend a little bit of time, I guess, A, on which of your Affiliates are seeing the most momentum so far in 2016? And then just broader for the industry, when it comes to RFP activity, what are you seeing for the active equity managers? Thanks. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Nate, why don't you? Nathaniel Dalton - President & Chief Operating Officer: Sure. So it's Nate. So there's two pieces to this, I'd say. So one is, as a backdrop, the broad trends where we've been seeing lots of momentum are in the alternatives category and the global equity category, including emerging markets. And that's definitely continuing. Within U.S. equity, I guess, the only other piece I'd add, which is sort of part of what Sean was getting at with this newer trend is, on the managers that are on the kind of more active side, either because they're truly differentiated processes or because they're running sort of more concentrated products or what have you, but those trends are definitely places we're seeing, within the U.S. equity piece, some evolution. But across global equities, including emerging markets and certainly the alternatives category, we're still seeing really good strength. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I would also that it's the kind of change in strategy that you're hearing others talk about, consultants and clients, in our dialogues with them, even in advance of specific mandates as they look toward a different environment with volatility, dispersion and lower returns. It's a period where, I think, we're not alone in seeing the very strong opportunities for high-conviction active managers and alternative firms.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line from Michael Carrier with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Roger Carrier - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks, guys. Maybe this one is for Jay. Just when you think about your guys' strategy on both the acquisition side and then the buyback convention, just want to get your outlook, given where maybe the stock is and the valuation, but also just given in a market where there is more volatility. Do you tend to see more opportunities, continue to be pretty active on the acquisition side? Or do you maybe buybacks take more of a focus given the valuation? Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: It's Sean. Jay might follow up. But I would say at the highest level, our strategy and past track record, over the long term and the more immediate term, is to do both. And I think we've successfully demonstrated an ability to return capital to shareholders in highly accretive transactions as well as repurchases. I think going forward, the long-term strategic focus will continue to be on making investments in outstanding, diversifying Affiliates, where we have a unique competitive position and, as I said, a great track record. We also recognize, and certainly recognize now, the shareholder value that is created through repurchases. I would say, going forward, it will continue to be an emphasis on both elements, but the mix will vary in the circumstance, and I think we anticipating what, I'm sure will be a question around deal activity, the market volatility generally has a dampening effect on deal activity. And so I think the mix in the more immediate term is likely to be favoring repurchase. But, over time, we have and we will continue to do both.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Craig Siegenthaler with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question. Craig Siegenthaler - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Nathaniel Dalton - President & Chief Operating Officer: Good morning. Craig Siegenthaler - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): I'm just wondering, as of today, have you experienced or received notice of any lumpy redemptions in 1Q 2016? Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: No. Craig Siegenthaler - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): All right. And then is there any color you can provide in terms of how total flows have been tracking quarter-to-date in the first quarter? Nathaniel Dalton - President & Chief Operating Officer: Yeah. So the way I would describe it is just focusing on the quarter, which is – what your question is. So, we talked about mutual funds, right? So on the mutual funds side; trajectory is much, much better. We have these idiosyncratic things behind us. I gave you the number for January on publicly available data for mutual funds, which is sort of positive, over $800 million and we're seeing really good continued inflows in the Mutual Fund channel in both alternatives and global equities. And then really importantly we're seeing much lower outflows in the U.S. equity book in the Mutual Fund channel as well. And so that's kind of the piece that has probably the most clarity around it and sort of the most public information around it. And then if you look at the institutional side, if you look at the totality of it, which is sort of RFP searches, finals, ones not funded (27:44) all that, they're kind of running about where they've…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Bill Katz with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

William Raymond Katz - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, thanks. Good morning, everyone. I appreciate taking the questions and thanks so much for the extra color on the flows. It is very helpful to frame it out. Just sort of talking about maybe capital management a little bit, I'm just trying to reconcile some of the comments this morning. It sounds like the deal pipeline might be a little bit slower, which is not surprising given the volatility. I guess I'm a little surprised that your share count wouldn't be down a bit more if your mix is tipped a little bit more toward buyback. So I'm wondering if you could sort of highlight what I'm missing there. And then the other side of the question is, in the last quarter you had mentioned the ability to sort of do deals despite the volatility. Is it just that you work through the more recent deals, which are certainly very impressive in their own right, and then the pipeline is a little bit softer or is volatility really having that big of an impact, particularly on the alternative pipeline? Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Why don't I take it in reverse order and just comment briefly on the pipeline? I'm sure there'll be other questions around it. The dampening effect that I described on an industry-wide basis is something that it's too early for us to tell. We have a very strong pipeline. It's probably not quite as weighted toward global and alternative as it was last year. But we had a terrific result last year and especially the last quarter. And so while, as we have said many times in the past, that the deals tend to come in clumps and it's very difficult to forecast quarter-to-quarter, I would say that any pause that…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Dan Fannon with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Daniel Thomas Fannon - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks. Good morning. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Daniel Thomas Fannon - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

I guess a couple more for you, Jay. With a couple deals still pending to close, can you give us a makeup of what the balance sheet you expect to look at pro forma and kind of where you're comfortable, from a debt perspective, going prospectively in terms of the, maybe, additional deals or other things that might drive that higher? And then I guess I might have missed it, but did you give what the performance fees were in the quarter and maybe the diversification of who contributed to that? Jay C. Horgen - Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Yeah. So, sure, Dan, I'll do the whole thing. Maybe I'll just start with guidance and then end up on capital levels on our revolver, which is how we funded these transactions. Start with the guidance, just what was the update in the guidance 2016 range of $12.40 to $14? It was based on the mark-to-market of our AUM since our last call. It included the inclusion of Baring Asia, which was the new transaction because on November 9, when we last gave guidance, we had already announced the other three. So we included Baring Asia and its accretion for the full year effect in 2016. We also updated our performance fee assumption for the year, given the addition of Systematica, Baring Asia, and Ivory, all of which have performance fees. So those three things were the main items that we updated and reflected on. Starting with the building blocks on market beta, since we gave the guidance on November 9 through the end of the year – well, starting as of November 9, we were up about 4% in the quarter. And as you can see from our AUM table, we finished up about 2%. So the delta between…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Kim with Sandler O'Neill. Please proceed with your question. Michael S. Kim - Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP: Hey, guys. Good morning. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Michael S. Kim - Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP: So just to follow up on Nate's comments on flows. And not to beat a dead horse here, but it's been a couple of quarters where you've called out sort of these idiosyncratic redemptions in the institutional channel. So just wondering if you could maybe give us a bit more color in terms of the size of those losses, the strategies, the clients and the drivers. I know you mentioned they were unrelated to performance, but just so that we're sort of able to get a bit more comfort that they are in fact one-off events as opposed to something that might persist. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Hey. It's Sean. I think beyond what we've said, I don't want to say more. I think I'll repeat and reframe a little bit of what we did say. First of all, I know that we're not alone, and I think it's in the industry in terms of having these kinds of outflows. I also know that our relative exposure is much less than the industry average and much, much less than some others, and that the remaining products are some locked up in long-life vehicles, and the performance of the others is very strong. Beyond that, we're not comfortable saying more because of, hopefully you understand, our extreme sensitivity to calling out individual clients.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Shutler with William Blair. Please proceed with your question. Chris C. Shutler - William Blair & Co. LLC: Hey, guys. Good morning. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Chris C. Shutler - William Blair & Co. LLC: So value stocks have under-performed growth for several years now. You talked about how you have many of your strategies have more of a value bent to them. So stepping back, Sean, for AMG and maybe the industry at large, do you think that we're going to start to see more flows move into value-oriented strategies? And any anecdotal evidence would be helpful. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I'll start and then ask Nate to follow on. I think the answer is, broadly, value will do better from a flow standpoint as it does better from a performance perspective, stating the completely obvious. And we're seeing early signs of that, but it's too soon to tell. I think there are cross-currents in the industry around passive versus active and those will, to some extent, continue. But I think it is highly likely, given the volatility and dispersion, that this will be a period, and I think perhaps for a while, where active, the best active strongly outperforms passive. And I think you've heard, I've heard, some of my peers in the industry say the same thing, including firms where they have significant passive exposure. And so we're believing that, and it follows logically from the environment and from the track record of firms. And our exposure has been, is, very heavily focused on alpha-generating products, the alpha side of the barbell, the high-conviction, active equity managers and alternative managers, a broad diverse array of…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Brian B. Bedell - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Hi. Good morning, folks. Sean, if you can talk a little bit just about Third Avenue a little bit more in terms of where the AUM currently stands, the potential redemption outlook in 1Q? I know we've gotten through a lot in 4Q already. And I'm sorry if I missed it, the actual total redemption number for 4Q for Third Avenue inclusive of the Focused Credit Fund? And then more, strategically going forward, sort of the game plan for that firm and how it may become more reinvigorated with management changes and what your long-term outlook is? Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. I think the number, Jay correct me if I get this wrong, in terms of aggregate outflows through the end of the year, including for our purposes all of the Focused Credit Fund is a little over $2 billion. Jay C. Horgen - Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: $2.2 billion. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: $2.2 billion. Jay C. Horgen - Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: For the quarter. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Sorry, for the quarter, for the fourth quarter. I don't have the number for this year-to-date. It's going to be all on the public data. Maybe Nate would have it. But there is a clear trend toward the outflows moderating. As clients focus again on the outstanding long-term record of Third Avenue's products, especially their flagship real estate product, which obviously is completely unrelated to and away from the Focused Credit product. So the management team has more than a decade, on average, of experience and we feel terrific about the firm's prospects and their financial and operating position. They're extremely well reserved. And so I think it is probable that…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Lee with KBW. Please proceed with your question. Robert Lee - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Thanks. Good morning, guys. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Robert Lee - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: First quick question on the asset mix a bit. Could you maybe just – I mean, over the years as you've acquired more alternative firms, whether it's Barings or Pantheon and others, could you maybe update us or give us a sense for what piece of your assets are actually in non-redeemable structures? And then maybe also to the extent that you can provide any color on what the kind of fund-raising pipeline may be for those types of products or structures, any color you can provide around that? Nathaniel Dalton - President & Chief Operating Officer: Yeah, happy to. So just to step back a bit, so if you think about our alternatives book, right, we've got as you sort of described it, we can think of it as sort of more liquid and illiquid strategies and we can also think about it along this dimension that you laid out about sort of structural product and locked assets. I think you also need to think about the fact that there are things that are not necessarily sort of legally locked structures but where, for all intents and purposes, they're sort of very, very stable asset bases, a separate account sort of GP (50:33) funded ones kind of structure and that's a significant portion of our alternatives book. When you talk about the fund-raising pipeline, it's a source of particular strength for us, right. So right now we're having good traction, exceptional traction, on the liquid side. Firms like AQR in our…

Operator

Operator

Your next question is a follow-up question from Dan Fannon with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Daniel Thomas Fannon - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Thanks. One more question, Nate, on flows. Was just wanting to get an update on kind of the 2014 vintage of new investments: the River Road, SouthernSun, Veritas, EIG. Just wondering like how that has contributed over the last 12 months. Are those net-positive flow-ers (53:04) and are they integrated into your distribution and how we can think about the ramp of kind of new investments in terms of their contribution to net flows going forward? Nathaniel Dalton - President & Chief Operating Officer: Got it. So I'm not going to do it sort of affiliate by affiliate, right. But if you sort of step back, those firms have all now engaged with us in distribution. Now it's very different for different firms, right, so it's appropriate for an EIG as we look at the opportunities to bring their capabilities, and we're working with them on some products right now. We're actually in market with them on some products right now, which is a very institutional sale where we're leveraging their already very strong distribution capabilities. But we're adding geographically to it. Contrast that with a firm like a SouthernSun or a River Road. SouthernSun, we very quickly integrated them into our retail distribution. But again and the experience there, it's very hard. There's no sort of here's the base case, but they're fully integrated into our retail distribution and were from day one. With a firm like River Road, we actually knew on the distribution side already and so we're working with but have done some things in product development and also extending their product distribution into the wires where we have been working with them historically I think more on the RA side. So the short answer is we're making really good progress with all of those firms,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Due to time constraints our final question will come from the line of Brian Bedell of Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.

Brian B. Bedell - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my follow-up. Just one data point on Third Avenue AUM at December 31? And then I have a question on institutional flows after that. Nathaniel Dalton - President & Chief Operating Officer: The Third Avenue AUM at December 31 was about 5% and a... Jay C. Horgen - Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: No. Net-net, I have to take out Focused Credit, so about 5%... Nathaniel Dalton - President & Chief Operating Officer: About 5%. Jay C. Horgen - Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Yeah, yeah. Nathaniel Dalton - President & Chief Operating Officer: About 5%.

Brian B. Bedell - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

About 5% then. Okay. And just longer term, Sean, I know you are getting a lot of questions on institutional flows, but if you think about the industry and some of the rotation away certainly from equity products and across different types of institutional clients, and then obviously compared with your performance advantages in a lot of your Affiliates, how do you see that dynamic playing out, say, later or through this year into 2017 in terms of what you would term as risk of idiosyncratic outflows versus market share gains that you think you can get through your Affiliates and marketing? Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I'll answer it in a broad way and then ask Nate perhaps to follow up. If you look in the last four to five years and look at client trends on a retail basis but also institutional, which is of course more the focus of our overall business, it's been a period which has favored passive products. So retail investors increasingly moving from active to passive equity exposure. But also a similar trend in a different way and obviously it expresses itself quite differently from one institutional client to another. But I would say there has been broadly a similar kind of trend among institutions and through that whole period, we've had extremely strong flows on the back of excellent performance by our alpha-oriented Affiliates, as well as excellent results in our alternative products which are sort of away from the question that I think you're posing. Looking forward, I think that the trends are much more likely to favor active managers, high conviction, high performing alpha-oriented managers for sure, and therefore I think there's every reason for us to feel confident. We do feel confident that, going…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. Mr. Healey, I could now like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments. Sean M. Healey - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, again, for joining us this morning. As you've heard, we were pleased with our earnings growth in 2015 and we remain confident in our ability to continue to create shareholder value through both the organic growth of our existing Affiliates as well as accretive investments in new Affiliates and share repurchases going forward. We look forward to speaking with you in May.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.