Moshe N. Gavrielov
Analyst · Uche Orji with UBS
Okay. So let me first talk about 28. We have an extremely broad product line at 28, 5 distinct families: Altix, Kintex, Virtex, SSIT, which is a high-end and unparalleled in terms of density so it actually opens up a new market for us, and then there's the Zynq product line, which again is -- opens up a whole new set of market. When we look at our competitive position, our expectation is that we will have 70% of the market at least, and that's based on the fact that in 2 of the 5 areas, there is no competition now, and we expect that competition to take a long time to come. And on the other 3 areas, we actually feel we have an incredibly strong hand. Now in terms of how quickly we expect it to come out of the gate, it is coming out very quickly, much faster than the previous 2 generations of product. And because the yields are also very high and the demand is there because it either can enable capabilities that aren't possible with the previous generation of technology or if they are possible, then it's a lower power point and over time, a lower cost point, we expect that to grow at a very fast rate. So if you look at Virtex-5, which was our previous generation, a previous more successful generation, then that took 3 to 5 years to reach its peak. Here, we expect that the peak A will be much higher because it opens up significant new markets, and we actually feel that we have a much better competitive hand. So we would expect, as we indicated, $10 million or more in what is the April, May, June quarter, and we expect it to grow rapidly from that point forward. So we aren't giving predictions, but that's much faster than we've seen previous generations of product. The 40-nanometer and 45-nanometer, we clearly came out later than the competition. Our strength there is driven by the fact that we have a low-end product in the 45 and that is doing well. Overall, our goal on the 40 and 45 is to close in, over time, on 50% market share. We're clearly not there now, and it's going to take us some time to get to that point. But in parallel, we expect the 28-nanometer to totally flip the way the market share has grown over the past few years and enable us to win back significant market share. When that will become extremely visible? It becomes visible when the 28-nanometer moves into significant volume. If you look at the numbers, given that we're -- the market in of itself is between $4 billion to $5 billion now, then it requires more than $10 million per quarter to make a significant dent there. But at the rate that it's growing, by the end of the year, this should be very visible.