Christina Spade
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open
Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us. As I begin my new role as CEO of AMC Networks, I am proud to lead the company at one of the most exciting moments in our history on many fronts. Today, I will discuss our third quarter 2022 operating performance and our goals and strategies for future value creation based on what we are seeing in today’s landscape. Patrick O’Connell, our new CFO, who joined the company in August, will then review our financial performance in more detail. In the third quarter, we added 300,000 streaming subscribers and we now have 11.1 million total paid subscribers, representing a 44% year-over-year increase in subscribers and a 41% increase in streaming revenue. We continue to expect we will end the year with approximately 12 million total streaming subscribers. Our meaningful and consistent streaming growth has been driven by our strong content slate, coupled with our strategic marketing efforts which have been significantly evolving this year. Our third quarter results were impacted by several factors, including strong streaming growth, the timing and availability of content licensing deliveries, a softer scatter and direct response advertising market and unfavorable foreign exchange impacts. As a result of these market indicators, we expect full year 2022 revenue growth to be flat-to-low single-digits. Due to better visibility of the timing of certain production items, we also anticipate full year free cash flow to be between breakeven and $50 million for 2022. Our year-to-date adjusted operating income margin is 28%, which reflects our consistent ability to strategically manage our investments for strong profitability. Patrick will review our guidance in greater detail shortly. AMC Networks is in the midst of an important transformation with streaming growth momentum and new opportunities that are enabling us to transition to a consumer-focused multi-platform premium content company with a strategic mix of proven and new digital distribution revenue streams. In the two years since the October 2020 launch of our premium subscription AMC+ streaming offering, we have significantly grown global distribution. With AMC+, we are offering a compelling content mix to create a very specific value proposition for viewers, centered on premium content offerings for discerning adults, which is the cornerstone of our AMC brand. With the success of AMC+ and our targeted services, Acorn, Shudder, ALLBLK and HIDIVE, we are effectively executing a differentiated streaming strategy, super serving passionate audiences with highly curated content offerings. We are utilizing a broad array of our platforms to showcase and window our content as we fully monetize our content investment across our linear streaming and – expanding digital platforms. We are leading in advanced advertising as we take advantage of new revenue opportunities, particularly in the deployment of addressable advertising and programmatic buying to forge a clear path of growth in digital advertising revenue. Underlying all of this is the strength of our content curation, driven by a diverse slate of excellent storytelling that viewers fall in love with, and they can’t live without. This is our North Star that will drive our ongoing success. Against this backdrop, we are nimbly navigating secular trends, a fast-changing and competitive marketplace and ever-evolving consumer behaviors. I have witnessed firsthand particularly over the past 6 months to 12 months our ability to successfully iterate and learn from what we are seeing in the marketplace as consumers engage with our brand offering. At this juncture, we are keenly focused on – strategically operating within the digital marketplace that is taking shape for the future, while also optimizing our linear hest. Ongoing success will be driven by strong execution of three key goals. First, develop, create and curate world-class premium content tailored for our target audiences and communities to drive high engagement. Second, prioritize IP ownership to fuel our multi-platform distribution opportunities and digital growth. And third, manage winning economics and profitability for the long-term as we continue to reconstitute our revenue mix. The best and most recent example of our content strength is our successful October 2nd debut of Anne Rice’s Interview with the Vampire. We developed and launched a carefully orchestrated marketing campaign that significantly broke through to new and existing fans, utilizing our multiple distribution platforms and our awareness and performance marketing capabilities as a powerful megaphone to launch the series and our new Anne Rice Immortal Universe franchise, our campaign kicked off earlier this year at San Diego Comic-Con, and in September, our new AMC+ brand campaign with our new Above and Beyond tagline, fueled strong awareness leading into the series launch which was in tandem with the premiere of the final 8 episodes of the Walking Dead flagship series, providing us with a huge built-in audience. It has been a winning formula for us with Interview with the Vampire ranking as the most successful launch in the history of AMC+ in terms of viewership and acquisition. Parrot Analytics recently reported that since the three week, Interview has had nearly 25 times the demand for the average show in the US with week-over-week increases underscoring AMC Network’s ability to punch well above our weight and create thought-after content that garners outsized attention and engagement. The critically acclaimed series is also the number one new drama on ad-supported cable for 2022 to-date, demonstrating the continued strength of our linear platform with AMC being home to 4 of the top 15 cable dramas this year in both key demos. Overall, these results are a strong validation of the coordinated efforts that supported this launch and an indication of how we are strategizing around these big content moments in the future. The next series in our Anne Rice Immortal Universe Anne Rice’s Mayfair Witches starring Alexandra Daddario, will premiere on January 8th, 2023 on AMC+ and AMC. Our talented team has already begun early promotion to launch this series strongly, including promotion at New York Comic-Con last month and targeted awareness marketing in Q3 and Q4. As we look forward to the last weeks of the Walking Dead flagship series, the most successful show in the history of cable television, we are excited about the growth prospects of our planned expansion of this franchise, with several new series, including The Walking Dead: Dead City, which recently wrapped production, a spin-off featuring fan favorite, Darryl Dixon, set in Paris and also in 2023, we’ll have the return of Fear the Walking Dead for its eighth season, with more to come, including a new series starting Rick and Michonne. These new series in the Walking Dead universe will propel this vibrant and vital global franchise in exciting new ways, engaging loyal fans who continue to display affinity and enthusiasm for this universe while appealing to a whole new generation of viewers as well. I would like to spend a moment on how we have approached franchise management around both of these important properties. Within less than two years of buying the Anne Rice IP rights, we have begun to premiere two strong series in this franchise with more to come. The excellent creative team supporting this universe are already writing a second season of Interview with the Vampire and we have Mayfair, which is produced and ready to kick off in 2023. As for the Walking Dead, yes, the flagship series is ending after 11 seasons and more than 175 episodes. But even as we mark this epic television moment, we have new stories featuring the most enthralling characters, providing a compelling entry point for new fans. So we have two things happening at the same time in our company as it relates to effective franchise management and our long-term IP ownership strategy. The successful launch of a powerful universe and the effective management of an iconic one, enabling us to serve existing fans, while opening the door to new fans, fueling the continued growth of our franchise communities. For our targeted streaming platform, Acorn, Shudder, ALLBLK and HIDIVE, we are highly focused on acquiring, retaining and engaging subscribers with a profitable lifetime value, and optimizing our content refresh rate to give us the greatest potential to have an impact with new and existing subscribers. With our targeted strategy, we offer an array of content that is diverse and enables us to build affinity-based loyal communities in a cost-efficient manner, putting us firmly on a path for profitability and strong lifetime value of subscriber performance. Our second goal is to prioritize content ownership to fuel maximum multi-platform revenue monetization. Content ownership, including maintaining global rights provides us with key benefits to fully maximize all of the revenue streams from our content investments across all window distribution platforms. Strategically prioritizing content ownership, especially for our franchises provides optionality in terms of windowing content across their efficient and dynamic ecosystem of own platforms. And as we continue to expand internationally and creates the opportunity to license our content to third-parties when and if it makes sense to do so. As the distribution and streaming landscape continues to evolve, our digital platforms are evolving and expanding creating new avenues for monetizing our high-quality content and tying to our third goal, maximizing the value of new digital opportunities and taking full advantage of the strength of our linear television business as we manage winning economics and profitability. We are utilizing our deep content libraries as we lean into the FAST and AVOD space. And we now have 14 FAST channels on 7 leading platforms, including Roku, Pluto, Samsung, VIZIO, Plex, Sling and Comcast Xumo. Our linear networks are outpacing other cable networks by a wide margin, demonstrating the strength of our channel portfolio. For the first nine months of the year, the primetime average delivery across our five linear network matches our performance across the first nine months of 2021, outperforming the wider landscape in which cable networks on average are down 13% year-to-date. Our linear networks and our digital platforms are a complete strategic distribution ecosystem that we use in a dynamic way to elevate our popular and acclaimed content and use it to reach our fans, particularly younger and digitally savvy viewers. This ecosystem allows us to effectively and efficiently window our content. One of the foundations and core strengths of the television business, and also to apply new tech-enabled areas of monetization. In particular, we are seeing strong growth year-over-year in digital advertising and increasingly meaningful revenue category for us. Relative to affiliate distribution, we have an expanding array of long-standing and mutually beneficial partnership relationships that bring hest and strength to everything we do. Yesterday, we expanded our partnership with Roku to feature AMC Networks’ high-quality original programming, FAST channels and targeted streaming services across Roku’s broad and growing ecosystem. This agreement highlights the value we bring to our distribution partners with our premium content and platforms. Internationally, we are proceeding with an opportunistic approach, leveraging the strength and reach of our strong global partner relationships. We are launching AMC+ in international markets, including new launches in the third quarter in Australia and New Zealand through strategic partnerships. Overall, we are mindful that the most effective way to successfully navigate the dynamic and evolving consumer landscape is to focus on the needs and interests of consumers, and on our ability to super serve fans of our content with the entertainment they love and value. We will continue to innovate strategically and opportunistically and balance the importance of driving winning economics with profitability for the long-term. I would like to take a moment to acknowledge and thank our talented global AMC Networks’ team for all they are doing to drive our success. And I would like to officially introduce Patrick as our new CFO. It is an honor to be working with Patrick again. I have no doubt that his proven track record for strong and strategic financial leadership will serve us well and will be a driving force for further value creation for AMC Networks.
Patrick O’Connell: Thank you, Chris and good morning, everyone. It’s great to be working with Chris again. Having spent a couple of months taken a deep look at our business, it’s clear to me that AMC Networks’ unique assets and capabilities, coupled with our nimble strategic approach position us to succeed as the landscape shifts and consumer behaviors evolve. AMC Networks, a strong studio and original programming powerhouse occupies a unique position in the media ecosystem, punching above our weight class with culture-defining entertainment and a differentiated streaming business model that sets us apart. As Chris mentioned, our foundation rests upon carefully curated world-class programming for discerning and passionate audiences. Nevertheless, we’re keenly aware of both the secular shifts and the macro headwinds the industry faces and are taking a prudent path where we see strategic and financial opportunities as we calibrate investment levels and profitability. Strategically, we will continue to super serve our target audiences. Financially, we will continue to monetize AMC Studio’s owned IP on our platforms and on others, and maintain our disciplined approach regarding programming investments and expense management. Now I will review our third quarter 2022 financial results. Consolidated revenue decreased by 16% to $682 million, largely driven by the timing and availability of content licensing deliveries, lower affiliate and advertising revenues and unfavorable foreign currency translation, partly offset by strong streaming revenue growth of 41%. Consolidated adjusted operating income decreased by 14% to $194 million, with a margin of 28%, reflecting lower revenue, partly offset by lower operating expenses and SG&A, driven by disciplined cost management and the timing of our content and marketing investments. Adjusted earnings per share was $2.09. For our segments, domestic operations revenue decreased 14% to $587 million driven mainly by delivery and timing related to content licensing. Domestic operations content licensing revenue decreased 63% to $58 million due to fewer deliveries in the third quarter. As we have previously stated, the timing of full year content licensing revenue remains heavily weighted to the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, we delivered fewer episodes of The Walking Dead and Fear the Walking Dead, both of which were strong contributors in the prior year quarter. In 2022, these titles are delivered content licensing revenues in the fourth quarter. Domestic operations subscription revenue growth of 8% was driven by continued strong streaming performance. Paid streaming subscribers grew 44% year-over-year to $11.1 million at the end of the quarter. We are also beginning to realize the benefits of the price increases in May 2022 for Acorn and ALLBLK. Streaming revenue grew 41%, more than offsetting affiliated revenue declines. Domestic affiliate revenues declined in the mid-single digits, driven by subscriber universe declines, partly offset by contractual rate increases. Domestic operations advertising revenue decreased 10% to $180 million, primarily due to lower linear viewership, softer scatter and direct response markets, and fewer original hours, partly offset by digital and advanced advertising revenue growth. Domestic operations adjusted operating income of $207 million representing a 35% margin decreased 11%. The decrease in AOI from the prior year was primarily attributable to revenue performance and partly offset by lower operating expenses, including lower programming and marketing investments. For our international and other third quarter results, revenue decreased 24% to $99 million, the result of lower distribution and advertising revenues and unfavorable foreign currency translation. Excluding the impact of FX, revenue decreased 16%. International and other distribution revenue decreased 22% to $82 million, primarily due to the timing of production of 25/7 Media and unfavorable FX. Excluding the impact of foreign currency translation, distribution and other revenues decreased 15%. International and other advertising revenues decreased 31% to $17 million primarily due to the impact of the planned wind-down of two channels in the UK, the unfavorable impact of FX and softer ratings in the UK. Excluding the impact of foreign currency translation, advertising revenues decreased 20%. International and other adjusted operating income decreased 40% to $13 million in the quarter, reflecting decreased revenue and unfavorable impact of FX. Excluding the impact of foreign currency translation, adjusted operating income decreased 36%. Next, moving to consolidated free cash flow and the balance sheet. Free cash flow for the third quarter of 2022 was $4 million reflecting the current timing of productions for our 2023 and 2024 content slates. We ended the third quarter with net debt and finance leases of approximately $2.1 billion. Our consolidated net leverage ratio was 3 times at quarter end, and we remain comfortable with our balance sheet and current leverage ratio. Our capital allocation policy remains unchanged. First, we will look to invest organically in projects that provide attractive returns to our shareholders. This includes return-based investments in our streaming services. Second, we will maintain leverage that is appropriate for our business outlook. Third, we will consider disciplined strategic M&A. And fourth, we will be opportunistic in returning capital to shareholders. Moving to our subscriber outlook for 2022. We continue to expect that our yearend total subscribers will approximate $12 million, driven by the strength of our fourth quarter programming. Regarding our financial outlook for the full year 2022, we anticipate total company revenue growth to be flat-to-low single-digits, driven by the current ad market and foreign exchange headwinds. And we continue to expect year-over-year growth in both subscription and content licensing revenues. Adjusted operating income will be approximately 10% lower than 2021, consistent with our prior guidance due to strategic investments in programming and marketing. Moving to our free cash flow outlook. We expect to deliver free cash flow between breakeven and $50 million for the full year of 2022, reflecting our current revenue outlook and the timing of certain production items. On our programming spending, while quarter-to-quarter timing will vary, it is important to note that we do not anticipate material increases to our current full year programming investment levels. In summary, we believe in the value of world-class, carefully curated content that super served our targeted audiences and we’ll continue to be careful and thoughtful stewards of capital as we focus on balancing investments in growth and the maintenance of strong profitability. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.