Earnings Labs

AMC Networks Inc. (AMCX)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, May 5, 2016

$8.54

+1.25%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Andrea, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the AMC Networks' First Quarter 2016 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Seth Zaslow, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Seth Zaslow - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to the AMC Networks' first quarter 2016 earnings conference call. Joining us this morning are members of our executive team: Josh Sapan, President and Chief Executive Officer; Ed Carroll, Chief Operating Officer; and Sean Sullivan, Chief Financial Officer. Following a discussion of the company's first quarter 2016 results, we will open the call for questions. If you don't have a copy of today's earnings release, it is available on our website at amcnetworks.com. This call can also be accessed via our website. Please take note of the following. Today's discussion may contain statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of the future performance or results and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. Please refer to the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a discussion of risks and uncertainties. The company disclaims any obligation to update the forward-looking statements that may be discussed during this call. Further, we will discuss non-GAAP financial information. We believe the presentation of non-GAAP results provides you with useful supplemental information concerning the company's ongoing operations and is appropriate in your evaluation of the company's performance. Please refer to the press release and related footnotes for GAAP information and a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP information, which we'll refer to on this call. With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Josh. Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, all for joining us this morning. AMC Networks is off to a solid start in 2016 with healthy revenue and AOCF growth in the first quarter. And looking ahead, we remain on track to…

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Brendon (sic) [Bryan] (21:46) Goldberg with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Bryan Goldberg - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Thank you. Can you hear me? Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. We can hear you, Bryan.

Bryan Goldberg - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Good. Thanks. So I had two questions, one on The Walking Dead and then a follow up on Hulu. First, on The Walking Dead, there has been a lot of focus on the Nielsen ratings for the franchise and I was just wondering, at this point in the show's lifecycle and in terms of its ability to drive growth for the company into 2017, how should we think about or frame the type of pricing power you have with advertisers with a show of this size? And when you sell ad units in the upfront market, how are you balancing ratings guarantees for Season 7 in light of the Nielsen C3 headwinds we saw in Season 6? And then I have a follow up on Hulu? Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure Bryan, this is Josh. I guess, on our answer on Walking Dead, if I may, broadly and then try and comment on 2017. As we mentioned in the prepared remarks, in – generally we really do look at it as franchise management. And so, we – it is of course a TV series, but we now have Fear the Walking Dead which premiered as the number one cable premiere in history. So, it's a related show. And we have an after show which is beneficial and we're selling The Walking Dead around the globe. So, our horizon for The Walking Dead is very long. We look at it over in really five year chunks going forward. And with an eye toward, if I can use the word delicately, delicately managing all of the creative aspects, it's exposure consumption to creative group that we have attending to it and the like. So that's the broad perspective. I think you probably have a sense of it. The performance last season was good in 18 to 49 and particularly in 25, 54, very good. So, we think that we're – it is a very, just said to say it bluntly, a great advertising vehicle. If you have a product you want to sell a spot in The Walking Dead sales stuff, it's really that simple. And some of that has been reflected in unit pricing that we've already seen and we think in today's market, as we go forward, if you have something to sell, you want to be in The Walking Dead and we frankly we hear it. It has some unique qualities, both volume, scale, and deep depth of engagement. So, we will – we think it will be a good vehicle for the upfront. We think it will be a good vehicle next year and it will be very attractive and valuable for our business.

Bryan Goldberg - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. And then, on Hulu, there has been a lot of news flow around it this week and I'm just curious to hear your thoughts on the new digital video service that they're working on the live feed and SVOD like hybrid. Do you see a service like this as incremental or cannibalistic to your current subscription and advertising model and just a type of packaging that could fit your distribution strategy in addition to your output deal with Hulu? Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. So, good question. That really is a good question, because we do have a relationship with Hulu already as you know and you just mentioned. So, we're proximate to their operations and their executives. And we think that they're doing frankly a superb job and have grown terrifically over the past couple of years. We have embraced multichannel video over the top offerings from, to date from Sony and from Dish in the form of Sling and we're very happy participants in them. We think that they are in fact additive to our distribution in United States and that our channels as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, we really believe it are very, very, very strong among key target audiences that OTT services want, notably, younger people 18 to 49 and to some between 25 to 54. So we think we're in an easy and happy marriage and further, Bryan, we think we're really well priced. If you look at comparative pricing for channel offerings from us and our siblings, we think that we've come up really top of the charts in terms of price value. So when there are new OTT entrants, which Hulu is in its description, we look at it with fondness and think that it will add a competitive frame, a consumer option and that the strength of our channels and brands will be elevated as by degree the system, or as it's commonly called, ecosystem has different options in it that the AMC Networks will rise up in terms of their price value and attention. So that's a long way of saying, we look at it fondly.

Bryan Goldberg - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

That's really helpful. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Morris with Guggenheim Securities.

Michael Morris - Guggenheim Securities LLC

Analyst · Guggenheim Securities.

Thank you. Good morning, guys. Two questions. First, Josh in your prepared remarks you talked about the strength of your programming beyond the live window and perhaps beyond the C3 window. So my question there is, over the next year or two, where do you expect to make the most incremental progress monetizing that demand from where you are now? Is it in the ad market? Is it renegotiating with your traditional distributors? Is it going outside of the traditional ecosystem? And then my second question, you have an app on the Apple TV now at least that I have seen. I'm not sure if it's another services as well, but great look and feel, similar to what we see from other networks. How do you think about potentially making it available at a retail price on a non-authenticated basis, both in terms of the potential demand and also what it would mean for your existing relationships? Thanks. Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. So, in terms of where upside is for us, you mentioned three different categories of opportunity, and they are each different in both scope and in calendar. You saw our numbers this quarter and they indicated that to use just lay words, sale of shows, out into other markets had a very good trajectory. We think that will continue. And our system is – if you want – if you don't mind a holistic system, meaning, we make shows, we put them on our domestic channels, we look to see if they belong in our international channels, we premiere them simultaneously. And then we sell them as a studio would in the U.S., in what used to be called syndication windows, now commonly called SVOD, and we do the same thing internationally.…

Michael Morris - Guggenheim Securities LLC

Analyst · Guggenheim Securities.

Thank you, Josh.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony DiClemente with Nomura.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Nomura.

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking my questions. I have two. The first one is for Sean. Sean, I'm sorry because the script, I guess is on a little bit of a delay here. So can you just clarify what you said on the 2Q because I think you said strong sequential growth in advertising, and does that mean that 2Q advertising within National Networks will be higher in terms of dollars than it was in 1Q? Because, if that's true, given the seasonal weakness of the 2Q, that implies really substantial year-over-year growth expectations. So, is that what you meant by sequential? And then I could ask a follow-up. Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. No, Anthony, I was referring specifically to the percentages, not the absolute dollars.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Nomura.

So, you are saying the percentage growth rate will be higher in the 2Q than it was in the first quarter, not that ad revenue will grow sequentially. Do I have it right now? Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: That is correct. Yes.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Nomura.

Okay. Sorry, maybe just because I'm covering a lot of these Internet companies, which... Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: No worries.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Nomura.

...talk more about sequential growth, all right. So, I also just wanted to ask, I think it's interesting in terms of the timing of when a lot of the new AMC shows and franchises are launching relative to the timing of the upfront, right? So you have a lot of these new shows that are being launched right now, just as negotiations are getting going. So, I guess how do you add, the ad sales team go about bundling or are not bundling some of the newer franchises with the existing established inventory of content? And so, to what extent are you selling them on an à la carte basis versus on a bundled basis? Just be interested to hear how you are approaching that? Thanks.

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst · Nomura.

This is Ed. So, it is a mix in terms of the sale of our original series. Some of those series, we sell individually. Obviously, that tends to be the best way to drive pricing. As Josh alluded to you before, in this marketplace, we have a disproportionate – AMC delivers a disproportionate amount of the 18 to 49 impressions which are very, very highly valued by advertisers. So, selling individual units not packaged across the broader schedule for some of our shows is the best way to do it. For others, we offer a package. We offer a package for our advertisers depending on what they are looking for in their advertising upfront or in their scatter buy, what demos they want to reach, what duration their flight will be? So, we actually mile (35:54) it both ways.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Nomura.

Okay. Great. And maybe just one really quick follow-up on the buyback. You have the $500 million authorization, but didn't buy back any stock in the quarter. Have you bought back any stock in the 2Q so far, sorry if you mentioned that? Will you – how should we think about the pacing of when that buyback actually gets going, Sean? Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. No, Anthony, good question. So, as I said, we implemented the program late in the first quarter.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Nomura.

Okay. Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: We had not affected any repurchases in Q1 as you know. It is a opportunistic program that we will execute on with no set time horizon. So, I wouldn't necessarily read too much into the lack of activity to date.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Nomura.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael (sic) [Ryan] (36:52) Fiftal with Morgan Stanley. Ryan Fiftal - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Good morning. It's Ryan Fiftal actually. But – so, Josh and Ed, I was wondering if I could get some of your thoughts on The Night Manager. I mean the show is excellent and it did very well in the UK. But the ratings so far in the U.S. have been comparatively modest and the press reports are – it was not an inexpensive show to make. So, I'm wondering what your thoughts are on the performance so far and whether there're any takeaways for how you think about investing your programming dollars? Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. So, this is Josh. I think, first of all, I'd say the show is superb and that – I think, that actually matters a lot, meaning that the sort of qualitative judgment of it that we saw evidenced by third-parties and meaning, critics, does matter for its future and we'll see exactly how. But we have seen in certain instances TV shows develop momentum that were not necessarily discovered rapidly when they premiered on linear TV. We did premiere it on AMC on the Tuesday night, that's a new night. And so that creates a bit of a lift in terms of, meaning, what we have to achieve in terms of getting audience to it. There is a greater objective in that for us obviously. But it probably influenced the rating inevitably versus a Sunday night obviously. And when we had done Saul, we did it sort of in a two step, so it had a different sequence in terms of premiere. So I think, and just on price I would say that…

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst

We do in some of them, and we don't in others. I'm not going to go into one individual deal, but in some of them we do. Ryan Fiftal - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Todd Juenger with Sanford Bernstein. Todd Juenger - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Hi, good morning, everybody. I've got a question of sort of the longer variety and then a short one I'll say for a follow-up. The longer variety question simply is just an exploration of your appetite in future years to continue adding original programming, new franchises at the rate you have in a couple of years. It's a little bit of context around that to help you cater your answer is. And if you just juxtapose Q1 of this year to Q2 of this year, I think it's really informative, right. In Q1, with a relative comparable balance of shows year-over-year, a very strong advertising market, on the advertising side, you delivered a small positive growth number. Next quarter, we are talking about a sequential growth as we've already turned about with a lot of new programming hours, but a much bigger number with much bigger cost and risk. As we think about 2017, 2018, 2019, there are more nights of the week, there are more networks you have. Should we think about an appetite to continue pursuing something that looks like Q2 or something that looks more or like Q1? And I'll save a follow-up for after. Thanks. Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. So, hey Todd, it's Josh. So I think the best way to think about it is a little bit holistically if I may, because when we do shows now, there is a few key variables. Variable one is what is absolute cost, meaning, net cost after what does it really cost to make it? And the second is, do we have a partner? Are we sharing in it? And…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Vasily Karasyov with CLSA.

Vasily Karasyov - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA.

Thank you. It's Vasily Karasyov. Good morning, everyone. Ed, I think my question is for you. Can you please dumb it down for me what Josh was saying that The Walking Dead has pricing power. Does it mean that you can command price increases above what the scatter price increases year-on-year are? And then, can you just do a back of the envelope analysis on how a show that has 15% decline in ratings can see overall advertising revenue growing?

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst · CLSA.

Right. So, in terms of pricing power on The Walking Dead and in AMC generally, we go into this upfront, and we look at what AMC is bringing to the table, which is a disproportionate amount of 18 to 49 impressions. We also model out what we anticipate our competitors will bring to the table. Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And so, we think we're in a very good position. And so we look at it two ways. Of course, on a monthly and quarterly basis, we will look at driving our scatter pricing or our CPMs higher. Right now, what's in front of us is the upfront, and we anticipate real pricing increases for The Walking Dead, significant pricing increases for The Walking Dead. Does that get to the root of your question?

Vasily Karasyov - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA.

Well, if I may ask a follow-up.

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst · CLSA.

Sure.

Vasily Karasyov - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA.

Josh would say, we are proximate to the answer here.

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst · CLSA.

Yeah.

Vasily Karasyov - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA.

So does it mean that you did not 100% monetize The Walking Dead's audience?

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst · CLSA.

No, I...

Vasily Karasyov - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA.

Does it mean that the declines were not eating at your inventory?

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst · CLSA.

No. It doesn't mean that. It means that we believe that we can command a higher unit price in this upfront, and we're able to command in last year's upfront and we've enjoyed that in recent quarters in scatter.

Vasily Karasyov - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst · CLSA.

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jim (sic) [Tim] (49:25) Nollen with Macquarie. Tim Nollen - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Thanks. I wanted to catch-up on the comments you've been making about the viewership after live or even C3. It seems like your programming lends itself well to catch-up viewing. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I saw some numbers that The Walking Dead final episode had something like a 35% increase in viewers, up today 7% (49:50) after live, and I think that doesn't even count the streaming. So, if you could comment a bit more on how you expect you can price for this type of advertising coming up in the upfront, so it's kind of a follow-on to the last question? And then, secondly, could you please comment a bit more on your international investments? What are you putting money into in programming? And I think you mentioned in OTT services internationally as well and just to double check, I think you said, you expect operating margin to be flat year-over-year in international. Is that in dollar terms, please? Thanks.

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst

Okay. So, Tim, so, you've asked a number of things there. I think in pricing strategy between linear and VOD/TVE catch-up, I won't break it out. I will say that we go into this upfront and we model the number of impressions that we believe we'll get in so called live same day and the number of impressions that we believe we'll get in plus 3 and plus 7 and in some cases, we are selling packages of linear and digital together, and then we also have a digital sales force that is going out to other buying group to monetize as such. You asked a question about international, I think it was the programs that we're investing in overseas, and if investing it means we are carrying them on our AMC Global, I would tell you that Fear the Walking Dead, and Into the Badlands are prominent series on AMC Global as well as Halt and Catch Fire and The Night Manager in many regions as well. And those have all met with strong degrees of success from territory to territory. Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Right. And then, Tim I think you also touched on OTT. That is not an international activity directly. We have some developmental activities here in the U.S. with, A, some investments in OTT video services and then our own activities in which we are experimenting with subscription services that bear names different than our channels, that are in niche areas of content, and we have an interest in being familiar with consumers purchasing directly and developing that facility in our company.

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst

And then, Tim, I think if we got the last, I think the last part of your question was about the International and Other segment, I think what I articulated in the comments was a modest decline in the second quarter as it relates to AOCF on an absolute dollar basis. Due to timing in these investments that Josh was referring to as it relates to OTT, and I did make some comments about the revenue growth in that segment for the full year, but no specific guide as it relates to margin or AOCF. Tim Nollen - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from... Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Andrea, can we make this – just in the interest of time, can we make this the last question please?

Operator

Operator

Yes, sir. Your last question comes from the line of Ben Mogil with Stifel. Benjamin Mogil - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Hi. Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. So, Josh, we've seen Netflix in particular when doing its own originals kind of buy out all of the participations and residuals at the beginning of the production, so that they've got the most amount of flexibility in terms of windowing and how to window or how not to window sort of for their own kind of larger strategic goal. As you look at AMC wanting to own more, wanting to own more shows and wanting to do more shows and obviously, you've got your own strategic agenda, do you see an environment where you and some of the other original programmers sort of began to sort of buy more rights out early, so that you've got more flexibility around windowing without having to worry if you're maximizing your talent obligations? Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: I think that, I guess, it's touching on a couple of different issues. Buying rights for territories and/or ancillaries, sort of I can just segregate the issues. Issue number one, we are interested in getting flexibility because we now have an international footprint and we are a seller to domestic and international ancillary markets. So, the answer is yes, we have that interest, but we're not fundamentalist about it. We will make deals depending upon what the material is and whether we think it's unique and spectacular and we'll do co-production deal. So, while we own The Walking Dead and Fear the Walking Dead, just to say it, we license from Studios, Preacher, and we look forward to sort of robust and happy activity on Preacher and we co-produce with the BBC, which is a whole different set of engagements. So the talent issue and participants is subsidiary to that. And we haven't, because we've been flexible and making deals for rights related to territories and ancillaries, we're happy to work with whatever recipe and agenda makes talent happy and gets the deal done. We don't want to do it only one way, and scoop up everything all the time, including everybody's participations. We'll be flexible, and we'll make – we hope the right arrangement at the right time. Benjamin Mogil - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: That's great. Thank you very much, Josh. Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: All right. Well, thank you, everyone for joining us on today's call, and your interest in AMC Networks. Operator, you can now conclude the call.