Earnings Labs

AMC Networks Inc. (AMCX)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 25, 2016

$8.54

+1.25%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Christie and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to the AMC Networks Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call over to Seth Zaslow, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Seth Zaslow - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to the AMC Networks' full year and fourth quarter 2015 earnings conference call. Joining us this morning are members of our executive team: Josh Sapan, President and Chief Executive Officer; Ed Carroll, Chief Operating Officer; and Sean Sullivan, Chief Financial Officer. Following a discussion of the company's full year and fourth quarter 2015 results, we will open the call for questions. If you don't have a copy of today's earnings release, it is available on our website at amcnetworks.com. This call can also be accessed via our website. Please take note of the following. Today's discussion may contain statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of the future performance or results and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. Please refer to the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a discussion of risks and uncertainties. The company disclaims any obligation to update the forward-looking statements that may be discussed during this call. Further, we will discuss non-GAAP financial information. We believe the presentation of non-GAAP results provides you with useful supplemental information concerning the company's ongoing operations and is appropriate in your evaluation of the company's performance. Please refer to the press release and related footnotes for GAAP information and a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP information, which we'll refer to on this call. With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Josh. Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning and thank you for joining us today. I'll start by providing an overview of our business during the past year before getting into more detail by segment. 2015…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And your first question comes from Michael Morris of Guggenheim Securities.

Michael Morris - Guggenheim Securities LLC

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, guys. Two questions. First, Josh, you spent a fair amount of time talking about – you mentioned a couple of times, time-shifted and VOD consumption. My question is, given the importance of your content to time-shifted consumption and the growth in that, are your economics keeping pace with that growth as you look at the affiliate fees and your ancillary revenue streams? Or is there additional opportunity as you work through contract cycles that you think maybe that growth should accelerate given your importance to the time-shifted ecosystem? And then I have a follow-up after that. Thanks. Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. Well, I guess, Mike, you saw last year what our rate of growth was on the affiliate side. So I would say that that is a testament I think in the numbers to the value that MVPDs see and the strength that they see in our channels and our content and from their point of view, your comment I think has wisdom whether consumed on a linear basis or consumed on an on-demand platform, and I think that – I further add that, when we say immersive and must-watch and with intent to view, we mean it, it's urgent material. Even though we have greater numbers of people watching on a delayed basis, we also have the greatest number of people watching it live, as it happens in same day. So we think that we have – we are as strong as you can be in terms of content that matters a lot, content that people want to get, the content that people will watch live and delayed for an MVPD, and it positions us well. And we'll continue to execute on that. And we think over the year and over the years, it is as important a factor as you can have for strength.

Michael Morris - Guggenheim Securities LLC

Analyst

Thanks, Josh. And then on the outlook for affiliate growth, some of your peers have noted a rate normalization factor, which I think has been a function of some consolidation on the distribution side of the business. Do you expect to have – in the coming year do you expect an impact from consolidation on your rate of growth in that guide that you gave, Sean, the mid to high-singles? And then more broadly, how are you thinking about consolidation and distribution on the growth profile? Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. So, I think Sean just indicated where we think our performance will be on rate of growth in 2016, and there's a lot in that Mike, everything that we anticipate occurring in the next year, what you referred to on every other variable. Subscriber growth, any other consolidation is factored into that view of 2016. So, it's all in there. As one goes further, beyond 2016, of course, it goes without saying, the longer the horizon, the less specific and clear one can be. But we think that what we've seen in the strength of our content and in the fact that each of our five channels are a truly meaningful brand, AMC, IFC, WE, Sundance, BBC AMERICA and supported by content that matters a lot that it puts us in a good and strong position.

Michael Morris - Guggenheim Securities LLC

Analyst

Great. Thanks, Josh.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Anthony DiClemente of Nomura.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

Thanks very much for taking my questions. One for Sean and one for Josh. Josh, Sean, why don't we hit on the margin guidance. So, in your prepared remarks you talked about how excited you are about the new shows in 2016. By our estimates and who knows if we're right, we think you're increasing the number of programming hours a lot in 2016, maybe north of 30%. So, can you just help me with, if you include all these new programming hours year-over-year, what are the dynamics that allow you to be confident in guiding investors to broadly stable margins 2016 versus 2015? And then, maybe I'll follow-up for Josh after that. Thanks. Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure, Anthony. Thank you for the question. So, just to reiterate what I said, I think we expect given the number of hours of originals, the state of the advertising market both scatter and what that may or may not indicate for the upcoming upfront I think that that should be a positive growth driver in the advertising in terms of the core affiliate rate of growth which we just chatted about with Mike, I think that given the visibility we have there. And then, lastly the non-affiliate where we are distributing it to SVOD to international platforms, et cetera in terms of the nature of those arrangements that gives us comfort. Obviously, we're launching a lot of new shows, not all of which have been announced nor the number of episodes. So I won't comment specifically on the percentage increase until the channels have actually announced all of those things. So, those are a lot of the reasons why I made the comments I made in terms of our philosophy managing to a largely consistent margin in 2016 versus 2015. So that's how we feel about it.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: ...and that's our best information as of today.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thanks, Sean. And then Josh, back to the broader topic of distribution, over the last year or two, I think your company has been aggressive on pushing for distribution for all six of your networks and the recent renewals and you've had success there in terms of the DIRECTV renewal and NCTC but it brings to light a broader question longer term. It sounds to us when we talk to executives in the media industry that there are varying degrees of flexibility in terms of whether or not newer light packages that are being created would or should include secondary and territory networks. So, for you the non-AMC network. So, just wondering if you can give us an update on your philosophy and strategically as these new distribution packages, if we call them skinny packages or lighter packages are created, what's your degree of willingness to detach the non-AMC networks from a lighter distribution package whether they are your existing partners or newer partners? Thank you. Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. Sure, of course. So, thanks for the question. It's of course one that's on our minds. Although I would – although it's on our minds I would say that what's occurred to-date as opposed to what's been talked about is quite different. What's occurred to-date is that there are in those packages that you identify those what's really manifest to-date are. I guess. most notably Sling from DISH and Sony. And then there is some experimentation, I guess, one might call it, going on in early ways, but different ways at Amazon. So I think the experience to-date may be different from what everybody is conjecturing about and we don't know actually what will happen, what will be deployed, what pricing will be and what the landscape will actually invite and lead MVPDs to go with. And I think it's worth noting that because otherwise there is a presumption that this is occurring when in fact it's not. With all that long preamble said, we've really do think that brand, shows that support brand, and price will determine if things move around where strength sits. And so, we think that if we have brands that really are in people's heads and that we have a core constituency that cares about BBC AMERICA and about IFC and about the Sundance Channel and about WE tv that will stand us in very good stead. And if we have shows that – and I won't list them all, but you've heard us talk in the prepared remarks about what we're making, what we've achieved and what we're investing in. So we take seriously that we have to be accountable and really good and have shows supporting each of those channels. If we have those and if we're fairly priced and we think we're very fairly priced.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

Right. Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: If not, underpriced for our value that we will be in very good position as any evolution occurs. Sorry for that little length of that answer.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

It's helpful. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Ryan Fiftal of Morgan Stanley. Ryan Fiftal - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Great. Thanks. Good morning. I have one for Josh and one for Sean. Josh, one of the advantages of Walking Dead is obviously it's such a strong platform for you to launch new shows, worked very well with Badlands last year. And, I think Fear already has the tonnage to be used in a similar more way. So, I'm wondering if you've decided how you can use those assets to launch new shows this year?

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst

Yeah. Ryan, this is Ed. I think we're doing it. I mean, there is a couple of things that we've done, both to extend the franchise and to what we call super serve the fans. So, Talking Dead just registered the biggest performance numbers that it has in its history coming out of the premiere of Walking Dead a week ago, Sunday. And, you talk about the success of Fear, and we will continue to use both Fear and Walking Dead to introduce new shows or to promote to shows on the next night. One of the things that's important to AMC now is establishing a new beachhead of original content. Sunday nights and increasingly in 2016, you'll see our originals on Monday night. So, the observation that you make is an important one and it's one that we spent a lot of care within our scheduling strategy. Ryan Fiftal - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. Thanks. And then, I guess, a similar one on launching new shows. I'm wondering if there is any change in the margin on how you're putting marketing dollars to work. So, SG&A was up quite a bit in the quarter. It was up 24% I think. I understand some of that is BBC AMERICA and some of it's show timing, but it was still a bigger number than we expected. And I'm curious if you're finding it makes more sense to put more marketing weight behind some of these new shows than perhaps you used to?

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst

The spending on marketing, we really look at it on a show-by-show basis. And we look at the schedule, we look at where in the year we are, what our competitors have on. And most importantly, we look at the profile for the intended audience where we think we can target them. It is interesting, on some of the shows, I should say historically on cable, marketing spends were frontloaded, enormously frontloaded. But now as programmers are thinking about getting to season two, are thinking about sampling, are thinking about catch-up on VOD; one of the trends that you're seeing is marketing spends a bit more spread out over premiere season. So it's something we spent a lot of time analyzing and we look very closely at target audience and their habits. Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And Ryan, just specific to the fourth quarter, we obviously launched Into the Badlands, which was a new show, which was a contributor to that increase and obviously The Walking Dead was in the fourth as well. So those are probably the two contributors to your expectation. Ryan Fiftal - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson.

Michael B. Nathanson - MoffettNathanson LLC

Analyst

Thanks. I have one for Josh and one for Sean. So, Josh, increasingly a lot of your peers are not putting the Nielsen subscriber counts in their press releases, because there is claims of the sub counts not being totally accurate. You guys put it in. It shows very little erosion of your subscriber base. So I wonder how accurate from actuals to what Nielsen reports is the change in your subscriber base? And how much has Sling played a part of that, because Sling is not reported in the Nielsen numbers? Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Right, Michael. Nielsen, as you know, is the arbiter of trade today and the trade and commerce moves around the numbers that they report. You probably know their methodology better than I do and the vagaries and changes in how they collect data, sample and project. It is the manner of trade. So I would say that we are engaged with them as the arbiter of trade and we accept it and we use it. And I'll restrain from commenting on any imperfections or vagaries and leave it to that and simply say, we're engaged with it today. We do think and hope that ever more accurate data will be a benefit to us and the industry.

Michael B. Nathanson - MoffettNathanson LLC

Analyst

But directly Josh, if you look at the subscriber numbers in the press release on page seven, based on what you know to the actual numbers, is this a good representation of AMC's changes in subscriber levels year-over-year? Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: I'd say it's a reasonably good representation of what we've seen over time, yes.

Michael B. Nathanson - MoffettNathanson LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then for Sean, could you remind us again, you mentioned your capital usage thoughts. But, what's the right target leverage ratio for AMC Networks at this point in time? Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: So Michael, as you know, we haven't socialized a target leverage. What I would just say is remind you of the history. We obviously entered 2015 levered four times, we exit 2015 at 2.9 times. We are very much focused on investing in the core business organically de-levering, generating strong free cash flow. And at the appropriate time, the management, the board will evaluate capital allocation policies and whether or not we need the stated target leverage.

Michael B. Nathanson - MoffettNathanson LLC

Analyst

And then you'll socialize it to us, right? Thanks. Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Todd Juenger of Sanford Bernstein. Todd Juenger - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Hi. Good morning. Thanks. Want to hit if I could on two of the harder to forecast revenue items of your company, see what you could maybe help us with. So, on the international side, forgive me if I missed it, Sean, if you said but, anything you could provide, maybe an organic rate of growth compared to the currency headwinds impact and then, maybe something on advertising versus affiliate growth, I think it's mostly affiliate fee growth. So, anything there on price versus volume? Obviously, just basically anything you'd say to help us gauge the stability going forward would be great. And then, separately on the advertising line item, let me just put it out there a very frequent but probably poor way that we on the outside go about this is, we often start with thinking about The Walking Dead and thinking about how that is looking year-over-year. And then, thinking about the new shows you're launching, and the audience that they add back or contribute on a new basis, and trying to figure out where we think that all comes out from an audience perspective, mapping that against the demand assessment in coming out with the revenue projection. I'm sure it's the better way to do it. And so, can you suggest – is that as best as we could do or is there a better way that the outsiders, basically evidence we have should think about the overall advertising profile of your business would love to hear it? Thanks. Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Todd, I'll attempt to respond if I may. I don't know that I'll be any more helpful.…

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst

Todd, it's Ed. On the international side, I would just say to be helpful that affiliate revenue does represent the biggest part of revenue on our international business, but the rate of growth on the advertising side is actually quite high. Josh mentioned in his remarks when we introduced Fear the Walking Dead to the AMC Global feed around the world, it made us a top performing network that night and that month. And so, adding these shows has really ramped-up our ability to monetize the advertising revenue side. Fear the Walking Dead makes a day and date premiere. It premieres in the U.S. April 10, and it goes day and date around the world. So, both – and the investment in content on AMC Global is actually driving the whole portfolio on the affiliate side. So, we feel good about the top line on both advertising and affiliate, and I would say that rate of growth on advertising is most aggressive. Todd Juenger - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Okay. Thank you, guys both. Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Ben Mogil with Stifel. Benjamin Mogil - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Hi, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So, when you look at the originals that you're airing on your networks, the new ones coming up and leaving aside sort of Better Call Saul. For those that are licensed, are you seeing any ability or any greater ability to get either the SVOD rights directly, or have some participation in SVOD? Sort of thinking you guys are a gatekeeper to letting shows get aired and having SVOD live, and sort of how much leverage you're on the non-owned shows in getting participations around that? Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure, Ben. I think it's a good question and it's an area that has developed over time. I think the best way I can respond is really every deal is different, and the deals are really quite custom. It depends upon who initiates, it depends upon what the nature of the show is, and you're quite right that we are participants in SVOD in varying degrees of both on percentages and on activity, which is who holds the contract, if you will. And so, we determine that with our producing partners or if it's a studio partner, and we approach it on a reasonably fluid basis, so that both partners when if it's – and there is one in reference to those that are licensed a benefit. And so we work it out, articulate it, rearrange it and it's fair to say just as you indicated, that we do have both an equity role and an activity role frequently even when we do license. Benjamin Mogil - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: If you look back over…

Seth Zaslow - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Operator, we would like to take one last question, please.

Operator

Operator

Sure. Today's final question comes from Alexia Quadrani of JPMorgan.

Alexia S. Quadrani - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi. Thank you. My question is on really the opportunity on the affiliate side. Years ago, when we first started looking at this company, I think there was a great story in terms of you guys were being underpaid and there was a step-up expected into your affiliate rates and we've seen very good affiliate revenue growth sort of during that period. I know you've sort of gone through a large part of your renewals, but it's always ongoing. I guess, I am trying to get a sense of, how much do you think you're sort of under-earning still and how much opportunity do you think there still is ahead of us in terms of kind of a reset, if you will, in terms of getting paid what you think you deserve? Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Right. Alexia, I don't want to mislead or misguide you. I think – I'll tell you a couple of things, if I may, in response. This is Josh. We do think – first of all, that system and relationship between MVPDs and programmers has its obvious points of tension, as we're all aware. So we've been navigating in it now for quite a long time. We've been navigating it most recently in increasingly consolidated, on the MVPD side, terrain and we've been navigating it – I'd say quite successfully our numbers speak for themselves. So when we said several years ago that we thought that we were undervalued, even in a fairly sometimes pressured market, I think that that's been evidenced. We do think that given the changes in how people are consuming TV and the fact that there is more intention involved and less random channel flipping and, therefore, shows that don't have really big constituency are losing in their value by a degree that we're emerging as increasingly meaningful, which you see in our ratings and you see in critical reviews and you see in all those – in other symptoms, if you will, of strength. So I think and we think that we have more strength and that our value is greater than it is. I guess, I would caution you just a little bit to say that making that manifest in commercial contracts that often go anywhere between three, seven, eight years is a separate subject to take up when one puts numbers to that. So I think that our position is strong. Sean articulated what we think the next 12 months look like, and we think we're very well-positioned and situated for a longer horizon, and that's the backdrop that we'll have to effect and act in.

Alexia S. Quadrani - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Seth Zaslow - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us on today's call and for your interest in AMC Networks. Operator, you can now conclude the call.