Adam Aron
Analyst · Eric Wold with B. Riley FBR. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Sean. As you just heard we had a successful fourth quarter where AMC solidly outperformed the industry yet again. These results are directly tied to the continued commitment to innovation in the AMC platform through which we deliver a personalized and targeted end-to-end experience for our guests leveraging technology and data driven insights that all drive consumer loyalty. We believe that AMC is blazing a unique trail in creating nothing less than the quintessential 21st Century movie going experience. Before turning to your questions, I'd like to comment on eight important specific topics. First, on the attractiveness of the industry box office looking ahead. As I said a few minutes ago, globally the 2019 box office hit an all-time record high. Much has been written that the domestic box office may face challenges this year in 2020. That may be true. But some have tried to draw conclusions out of potential short-term softness and argue that this is due to a secular decline in out-of-home movie going. We could not disagree more strongly. As we look ahead, especially to 2021, we see dramatic growth in the size of the domestic box office not so far away. When the 2021 box office eventually is reported, we believe it will be the pessimists and the naysayers who will turn out to have been wrong. You will recall that as recently as 2017, some were writing the obituary of theatrical exhibition only to find that 2018 was the biggest domestic industry box office ever and 2019 was the biggest global industry box office ever. People have been forecasting that theatergoing is an anachronism for more than 70 years now. Television was going to put movies out of business. Television was going to put movie theaters out of business. DCRs, we're going to put movie theaters out of business. DVDs, we're going to put movie theaters out of business. Premium video on demand was going to put movie theaters out of business. And now streaming is supposed to be putting movie theaters out of business. And yet, the resilience of theaters has overcome and overcome and overcome. 2021 is right around the corner and 2021 in our opinion should be quite a wonderful year for AMC. As we look to 2021 and beyond, we see proven billion dollar franchises and incredible films slates anchored by the likes of Avatar, Jurassic World, Indiana Jones, Mission Impossible, and Star Wars to name just a few. This makes us extremely optimistic about our industry's future. Second, on AMCs revenue growth, cost cutting and margin improvements, we are ever so proud of for the seventh consecutive quarter, AMC outperformed the rest of the domestic industry with attendance per screen beating the rest of the industry like 284 basis points and admission's revenue per screen beating the rest of the industry by 607 basis points. That speaks volumes for the efficacies of all the competitive advantages that AMC enjoys in the United States. As industry-wide box office revenues grow globally to record levels this past year of 2019 we are reminded how smart it was for AMC to recently become the largest exhibitor in Europe. What's more our European theatres are responding to renovation and to the installation of recliner seating with growth rates 3.5 times that of the industry growth rate generally in Europe. Approximately 40 of our theatres have recliner seating installed now at approximately 60 of our theatres in Europe should have recliners seating installed by year end 2020. We are similarly pleased by our latest geographic expansion in the Middle East. We opened our second theatre there 10 weeks ago. Out of our 1,000 theaters in 15 countries on a per seat is that new theater that opened 10 weeks ago in Riyadh already is our highest grossing theater in the entire world. By year end 2020, we expect to have 15 open theaters in the Middle East and possibly more. We expect to have 25 or more theaters open there by year end 2021. On costs, at the end of the second quarter, we announced a $50 million profit improvement plan to enhance aspects of our revenue and optimize our operations and cost structure to improve efficiency and margins. We've already taken actions to heighten the certainty that we will deliver on or exceed this $50 million growth. Results of our significantly increased focus on cost discipline are already showing up adjusted for ASC 842, our EBITDA margin improved by 150 basis points for the quarter just completed. During 2020, we'll continue to see the benefits of the profit improvement plan ticking in throughout the year. Third, as to CapEx and free cash flow. As our capital expenditures come down AMC has turned the corner on free cash flow generation. Our investments in strategic initiatives are yielding strong returns and with the natural evolution of our US theaters needing less investment money with so many of the theaters already having been renovated. AMCs capital expenditures in 2020 will be somewhere approximately $110 million to $135 million less than they were in 2019. But these amounts still are more than sufficient to continue to invest in our business to drive growth, especially with the renovations in Europe and with technology innovations everywhere. Fourth. We made an important announcement today about capital allocation, especially as that relates to returning cash to shareholders. AMC is committed to a balanced capital allocation approach to achieve the highest long-term risk adjusted return for our shareholders. This includes investing in the business, reducing leverage and returning cash to shareholders through either dividends or share buybacks. We've been saying for some time now that we have raised the priority being accorded to reducing AMCs leverage, hence the significant reduction in our forecasted capital expenditures. Deleveraging remains our single highest priority at the moment. Today, we also announced that given the current depressed level of our share price and given that the financial markets seem to be giving AMC very little credit for paying an oversized dividend, we realized there's an opportunity to enhance shareholder value by deleveraging and by increasing the proportion of capital return to shareholders through buybacks rather than through dividend payments. Even so, the paying of a dividend remains an important component of our capital allocation. And in the current new dividend amount, we are doing so consistent with the average paid by other New York Stock Exchange listed companies. Some have speculated that we might not have the wherewithal financially to fund the higher dividend, that’s just nonsense and it’s completely belied by our $265 million of cash and $332 million of undrawn revolving lines of credit at yearend 2019, totaling approximately $600 million of total yearend illiquidity. The explanation is this, simply put, we cannot justify paying out a dividend with yield exceeding 11%, when our share price is currently one to three moldable points below historic EBITDA trading ranges adjusted for ASE 842. In our view, given current conditions, the smartest way to return cash to shareholders now is through share repurchase rather than a dividend within a typically large yield. So we are adjusting our capital allocation accordingly at this time. AMC’s Board of Directors as we issued in a press release a few minutes ago, have declared a dividend for the quarter ended December 31, 2019 of $0.03 per share on shares of class A and class B common stock, the 24th consecutive dividend since the company's initial public offering, but admittedly at a lower level starting this quarter. The dividend decrease of $0.17 per share compared to the fourth quarter of 2018 reduces the total dividend payout for the quarter by approximately $18 million. And should this dividend continue unchanged by approximately $72 million annually. Providing capital that we can optimally deploy towards both de-leveraging and equity buybacks that will create value for our shareholders. To that end, our board has also authorized up to $200 million of class A common stock repurchases over the next three years. Topic 5, we also announced today a new executive compensation program for our most senior officers that trades immediate pay reductions – reductions for a share equivalent grant that is considerably out of the money. AMC’s management team and I believe that our shares are fundamentally mispriced. Our shares are a bargain. As a result all of the relevant senior officers of AMC have voluntarily and enthusiastically signed on to a new reduced compensation program where our corresponding benefit is dependent on a one-time way out of the money share equivalent grant. Here are details at a high level more information will be contained in an 8-K filing. The current total target compensation of AMC’s participating senior officers will be immediately reduced by an amount equal to the sum of 15% 1-5 15% of their cash salaries plus 15% 1-5 15% of their target cash bonus opportunity. This compensation decrease will be split into thirds and applied evenly as reductions in compensation across each of three categories. One third lowering combined cash salary and cash bonus, one-third lowering at market restricted share ground amounts that time vest and one-third lowering ad market performance here grants that it, that’s based on performance. Importantly, these sacrifices now in lowered cash salary and cash bonus as well and lowered at market restricted shares and performance shares will continue at the new lower totals in each of the coming three years. In exchange, the officers reducing their pay now will receive a one-time grant of AMC share accruals that with certain exceptions has a three-year time vesting provision. And also requires that the AMC share price rise materially in order for any vesting to occur. This year, grant is split into six equal tranches. Initial vesting will occur, it will not occur – initial vesting will not occur until the AMC share price recovers on a 20-day VWAP basis to $12 per share a 102% premium at the yesterday’s market close. The second tranche, we’ll vest only when the AMC share price rises to $16, a 170% premium to yesterday's close. The third tranche vest at $20, a 237% premium to yesterday's close, the subsequent tranches that's the $24, $28, and $32 premiums of 305%, 372%, and 440% respectively. 14 senior officers of AMC were all participating in this effort including me partially of course. We’re all trading immediate compensation reductions for three years in exchange for a security that will have no value at all until the AMC share price more than doubles or triples and more. As you can see, all of us have deep conviction about AMC’s future and therefore each of us is putting our money where our mouth is. Management is totally aligned with shareholders and through cash pay cuts and lowered. at market share grants now, we are all putting more skin in the game. We are heavily incentivized to build the AMC share price back up. We have every confidence that will occur and we will be doing all in our power to make that possible. Six, as to A-List as we done each quarter, a quick update on our AMC Stubs A-List subscription program. The fourth quarter just completed with another quite successful quarter for A-List. A-List is one of our most vital and impactful marketing programs. We are constantly interactively managing the program to improve our company's overall profitability. We continue to have between 900,000 and 1 million paid members A-List members currently represent between 15% and 20% of our total U.S. admissions. The superb A-List News in the fourth quarter is that average A-List frequency for the fourth quarter was again 2.4 theater visits per member per month, right in the heart of the sweet spot of the mid to high 2x range, which defines program success and current membership pricing levels. Just as A-List has been ahead of schedule on membership counts and program profitability from right out of the suit, the fourth quarter frequency of movie going at 2.4x also per month is also favorable to our initial planning models. We continue to have a rock solid reassuring and confidence building analytic handle on the A-List program, and innovation continues with A-List. Our new Entourage feature has been a most welcome enhancement to A-List. It was launched in November of 2019 and it allows A-List members to link their accounts, so that they can make in a single quick and easy booking transaction, a movie reservation including specific reserved seats for multiple movie goers, the people in their Entourage. In just three months we have about a 115,000 members of A-List who’ve linked their hotels through Entourage. Overall A-List contributed more than $20 million of incremental operating income to AMC in 2019. Way ahead of our earlier announced expectations and a full year ahead of our expectations described during the launch of the A-List program back in June of 2018. We expect even more from A-List in 2020. It continues to exceed our expectations. It's increased loyal to AMC. It’s benefited our theaters, our studios and our premium format partners. A-List is a big reason why AMC’s US attendance has been robust and why AMC has outperformed the industry, quarter-after-quarter-after-quarter-after-quarter, after-quarter-after-quarter-after-quarter. Seventh, on the issue of streaming, some seem to accept on faith that an increase in streaming content will serve as some mortal threat to movie theaters. They choose to ignore the facts that 2019 was the biggest global box office year for movie theaters ever. Or that when television exploded with content from four major channels to hundreds of channels, theaters did just fine. Or that companies like AMC have invested billions of dollars to increase the creature comforts at our theaters enticing more and more movie goers to get out of the house. Or that our marketing and engagement programs are increasing loyalty on a customized basis like never before. Or that our technology interfaces have made it far, far easier to book a prime seat in a movie theater and for us to stay continuously engaged with our guests. Studies have indicated a clear and strong positive correlation between those who stream movies and those who also like to go to theaters to enjoy movie watching in person on a big screen with powerful sound and the smell of buttered popcorn. In short, movie watching, the gets movie going. Further, rather than looking at theaters as competitors we believe there is a significant opportunity for streaming providers to further utilize theatrical exhibition to create tremendous value for their content and for their shareholders. The theatrical format has always had strong branding power, particularly in today's world of endless scroll of content icons on streaming platforms. The theatrical exhibition helps to differentiate high quality content from low quality content, theatrical exhibition age users in discovery. Malleable studios have utilized the theatrical exhibition as the anchor in building incredibly valuable franchises which are then extendible in the TV content, streaming content, theme parks, video games and merchandise all with the building demand base that was created initially and encouraged and encouraged from that initial theatrical release. These studios are starting to do that now with their streaming offerings too and they do this while earning billions in profits via the theatrical box office which as the content arms race continues to play out we think it will be increasingly important to help fray the massive investments in content that is required to succeed. Importantly, the lore of theatrical exhibition keeps talented directors, cinematographers, writers and actors excited and motivated knowing that their work will be shown and enjoyed in the best possible way on a big screen. As a result, we have every confidence that we will maintain our century long partnerships with existing major studios and forge new alliances with emerging streaming powerhouses for them to use our movie theaters as vehicles to propel their own business success. With this in mind AMC just hired a new Senior Vice President of Strategy who joins us Monday. He is media world savvy highly regarded and has previously worked as a longtime executive vice president of business development and strategy of 20th century part – of 20th Century Fox Television and before that Universal Pictures. Based in Los Angeles his first major directive will be to create partnerships with streaming services both from established studios and from emerging streaming players to create value for the benefit of all parties but especially to create value for us here at AMC. And finally topic 8, just before we had your questions it seems appropriate to take a moment to briefly address the topic on everyone's mind the coronavirus. AMC Entertainment does not have movie theaters in China nor in South Korea nor anywhere in Asia. AMC does not have movie theaters in Iran. We do have theaters in Italy some of which in northern and northeastern Italy we have decided to close for a week starting three days ago as a precaution. As best we can tell the economic impact of Corona on AMC so far has been minimal, while it's conceivable that to change. As of today our theaters which are predominantly in the United States and northern Europe appear to have felt a little or no pain. It goes without saying that we are vigilantly monitoring reports and advice from governmental authorities in the United States and throughout Europe as well as from medical experts of course as you would expect we will be a responsible player here taking into account the safety of our guests and of our staff but importantly to report looking broadly at our circuit of 1000 theaters across 15 countries visited a million times per day by moviegoers around the world so far so good. And probably this is as good a place as any in this call today to remind one and all that AMC does not have a single debt maturity before the year 2024. Also our securities are covenant like. A flexible capital structure with no debt maturities for full, for four full years should be coming. In conclusion, the quarter just completed with another period in which AMC truly performed well, while we realize and looking at our share price that there are many who seem to doubt us. We have every confidence that as we continue to deliver results will be proven correct that AMC’s future is extraordinarily bright. With that operator, we're ready for questions.