Adam Aron
Analyst · MKM Partners. Please go ahead with your question
Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us. I would like to begin with a brief overview of our record-setting fourth quarter and our record-setting full year 2015 financial results and highlight some of our key accomplishments. I would also like to review with you my first 60 days as CEO of AMC and update you on the key priorities I have already outlined to further increase value for our guests, our associates and of particular importance, our shareholders. Before I do though, we could not possibly begin this call without mentioning that we are on the call from Dallas, Texas at our Annual Conference of all of our movie theater general managers. But just a few short hours ago and one brutal mid-continental redeye flight ago, I was in Los Angeles attending the Academy Awards. There I had the privilege of watching first-hand that a movie made by Open Road Films, Spotlight won two Oscars, one for best original screenplay and one the granddaddy of them all, the much coveted best picture of the year. Most of you may know that AMC owns 50% of Open Road Films. And on behalf of AMC, I now serve as Open Road’s Co-Chairman. This is a very proud day for AMC and Open Road. We are thrilled for our colleagues at Open Road Films. This success with Spotlight gives us a pedigree, which we would expect would improve the financial success of Open Road going forward. It certainly increases the value of its film library. Moving back to AMC, earlier this morning, in conjunction with our 2015 earnings press release we issued Craig Ramsey’s CFO commentary, which provides a detailed review of our financial results for the quarter and the year. Craig is with me on the call this morning. And after my formal remarks, we will open up the call for both of us to take your questions. Incidentally, speaking of Craig, he would tell you as I am now that we have established an instant friendship and a superb working relationship. Accordingly, you should definitely expect real management stability at AMC. We have a truly knowledgeable and proven executive team in place. So, let’s get started on the quarter and the year. 2015 was an impressive year for AMC as we set all-time highs across a broad array of full year financial metrics. Records in every single revenue segment, record adjusted EBITDA, record average ticket price, record food and beverage per patron sales and important above all else, record key gross profit indicators and record free cash flow. We finished 2015 with another strong fourth quarter effort as both revenues and adjusted EBITDA grew meaningfully compared to last year again to record highs for our fourth quarter for AMC. Total revenues increasing 10.1% to $784 million and adjusted EBITDA growing 10.0% to $154 million. The growth in adjusted EBITDA was even greater, more than 14% when we exclude the non-recurring $5.1 million California tax refund benefit that AMC recognized in the fourth quarter of 2014. These operating results translate into $41.6 million of net earnings and $0.42 of diluted earnings per share, both representing fourth quarter growth of 40% compared to the same quarter a year ago. After adjusted adjusting net earnings and diluted earnings per share for financing cost incurred during the fourth quarter of ‘15 and that $5.1 million aforementioned California tax refund benefit in ‘14, adjusted diluted EPS grew more than 59% year-over-year to $0.43 per diluted share. As strong as these year-over-year results are as you and as we analyze industry-wide results competitively, our results would have been stronger still but for three issues. First, AMC introduced a tax on top strategy back in 2014 meaning that we added admissions or sales taxes on top of listed retail movie ticket and concession prices. Many of our competitors copied our lead much later on doing so only in 2015. So, a pricing increase of that we realized in 2014, they realized for the first time instead in 2015 affecting year-over-year comparability. Second, as you know, the fourth quarter of 2015 results was all about Star Wars, Star Wars, Star Wars. Knowing that it had an unprecedented winner on its hands, Disney licensed more than 4,100 theater locations to show Star Wars in North America. A typical really big movie opens in between 3,000 to 3,500 theaters instead. Therefore, our so to speak capacity share for Star Wars was down somewhere between 15% and 25%. In that light, it’s really quite impressive that our market share for Star Wars fell only 2%. Candidly, that’s because where we had it licensed to our theaters we just played the hell out of that movie. Many of our AMC theatres showed Star Wars continuously, 24 hours per day, literally for days and days on end without stopping. And third, our new Starplex theaters acquired in mid-December in the fourth quarter operated substantially lower ticket prices, which impacted overall year-over-year pricing comparisons for AMC overall. Even with these three caveats, we are extraordinarily pleased with our fourth quarter results and we are energized as we start off in 2016. It’s hard not to be optimistic as we delivered record results in metrics after metric after metric. Taking a look at all four quarters of 2015, for the full year of ‘15, total AMC revenues increased 9.3% to a record $2.95 billion and adjusted EBITDA grew 15.6% to a record $536.5 million. We are especially proud that this story, growth was driven by our industry leading – I might add, industry-leading by a country mile, admissions revenue per screen of $384,000 and equally impressive food and beverage per patron of $4.62, again industry leading against the majors. These operating results yielded $103.9 million of net earnings and $1.06 of diluted earnings per share, representing growth of more than 62% and 61% respectively, compared to the same period in 2014. After adjusting net earnings and diluted earnings per share, again for those financing costs and gains incurred during 2015 and ‘14 and the aforementioned $5.1 million California tax refund benefit in ‘14, adjusted diluted EPS grew by more than 98% to $1.13 per diluted share. Importantly, free cash flow for the year ended December 31, 2015 increased approximately $51 million, up more than 72% to a total of $121.2 million, surpassing $100 million for the first time ever in AMC’s company history. There is no way to characterize these results by anything other than saying that these are strong results for AMC and they reflect the health of the movie industry as a whole. It’s an industry that’s generated three record years in industry box office out of the last 4 years, with the 2015 industry box office eclipsing the elusive $11 billion mark for the first time ever. Our studio partners delivered more than ever before in 2015. As you know, with three titles achieving top 10 status for the highest grossing domestic movies of all time: Avengers: Age of Ultron at number nine, Jurassic World at number four and I am sure you can guess, number one, the highest grossing domestic film of all-time in the history of moviemaking, Star Wars: The Force Awakens. At AMC, we actually are more optimistic about the slate of movies coming out in 2016 than many other observers. Just look at the popularity of the Deadpool for example, which has now become the largest grossing film ever to open in the month of February. We believe the studios will offer more solid films in 2016, but of course only time will tell for sure. Having said that, one of the beauties of the movie business is that, we have terrific visibility right now into the slate of films coming out in 2017 and 2018. Industry box office projections for ‘17 and ‘18 are frothy and robust. And within that industry, AMC has quite the enviable market position. AMC operated the top three grossing theaters in the U.S., number one, Empire 25 and number two, Lincoln Square both in Manhattan; and number three, Burbank 16, which I toured yesterday incidentally in Los Angeles. Indeed AMC with an 18.6% national box office market share operated fully 6 of the top 10 grossing theaters in the United States. We are also number one or number two in box office revenues in 80% of the top 25 largest markets in the United States, including having the number one market share position in the top three U.S. markets of New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. Now, reflecting back on my first 57 whole days here at AMC, my preconceptions about the company, which made me join it were true and are true. AMC is a strong company both financially and culturally. It’s in a glamorous and creative industry and it’s a truly fun place to work. Importantly, for our guests and for our shareholders, the innovation, imagination and excellence heretofore in AMC’s guest experience strategy has been immensely successful and producing the impressive financial results I have just described. But make no mistake, ours is a company that does not want to rest on its laurels. As such, I would like to talk to you about seven key priorities on which is a senior management team we are now all agreed that we believe will drive short-term and medium-term and longer term positive results for AMC. These have the ability to grow our market share to differentiate us from competition and ultimately to drive even better financial performance for AMC over time. These priorities will receive both, my full attention and focus as well as those of our entire executive team. Number one, we will continue to strengthen our bond with our current and future guests through world class marketing. I must admit, I am a marketer at heart and know there is readily identifiable low hanging fruit for AMC here. As an example, many savvy industry veterans think that our AMC Stubs loyalty program with its 2.5 million active member households is already the best loaded program among all movie theater chains. Of our 200 million tickets sold in 2015, fully 21%, more than $40 million were tracking their AMC purchases for AMC Stubs credit. But when we look at other industries, more than 50% of their customers in other industries participate in their loyalty programs or loyalty schemes as the British referred to them with such term. We have already, as a result of this observation, 21% greater than 50%, we have already wholly redesigned AMC Stubs to be rolled out nationally in the second half of 2015 after some testing and research to make sure we have it perfectly attuned. We have a goal of more than doubling the participation rates in AMC Stubs within 24 months of launch. Similarly, we believe that we can triple or even quadruple the size of our avid moviegoer database over the next 36 months. And then we will mind that data to market movies much stronger than we can with a smaller database in place today. The increment in doing so is inexpensive, because it allows us to introduce highly targeted marketing to more and more people who are already inclined to be tempted to buy tickets to see movies at movie theaters in the United States. More on marketing social media outreach by AMC will continue to grow. We are entirely making it over our website in 2016 as we will do this year for our smartphone apps. We are increasing the number of theaters with consumer preferred reserve seating. All of these programs with the goal of driving increased business to AMC theaters. Our marketing department is also facilitating the increased convenience of being able to buy a ticket online ahead of time and bypassing the ticket counter entirely. This is an amenity that our guests are increasingly choosing. Our fourth quarter 2015 internet ticketing volume totaled approximately 14.5 million tickets purchased online, a 65% increase over the fourth quarter last year, representing a sizable 29% of our total AMC tickets being sold online. In Q4 of ‘14 online tickets instead accounted for about 18% of our total tickets sold. And importantly, our proprietary ticketing engine at amctheatres.com, our website, also continues to track guests. AMC online sold 5% more online tickets in the fourth quarter of ‘15 compared to the same quarter last year. These internet ticketing numbers are growing in leaps and bounds and we expect they will continue to grow markedly in 2016. And in describing all this marketing activity, we believe we could accomplish much of this added marketing activity without appreciably spending additional AMC marketing moneys to do so. As studios already spend billions of dollars marketing their movies, by creating more targeted and efficient vehicles to reach added movie fans, we expect studios with the keen to reach out to those in our loyalty program, to those in our database and to those who use our website and smartphone apps out of their publicity and advertising moneys. Second priority, two, our commitment to creating spectacular movie watching experiences at theaters will continue apace, we are still seeing that reseating projects and food and beverage concessions upgrades continue to drive cash on cash unlevered returns exceeding 25%. As of December 31, 2015, AMC had 1,119 screens across 93 theaters, with plus power recliners in operation and AMC’s out-performance of the industry at these theaters continues, as attendance of these theaters grew 16.6% and admissions revenue grew 23.2%, outperforming the industry by approximately 1,060 and all 1,210 basis points respectively. We will continue to aggressively pursue more and more reseating and concession enhancements at selected theaters in our system. Also on the theater innovation front, AMC’s IMAX and Dolby Cinema auditoriums simply offer the best, the absolute best in movie watching. They represent 3% of our total screens, yet generate more than 9% of our total box office revenues, an index of triple. Therefore consumers are clearly demonstrating that they are wowed about the IMAX and Dolby Cinema experiences. Fortunately for us, AMC has more IMAX and Dolby Cinema screens than does any other exhibitor worldwide and we are in active dialogue with both companies about significantly growing the number of so-called PLF locations, premium large format screens at AMC within calendar year 2016 and beyond. We are now also fully engaged in developing a third PLF private label in-house premium large format brand to further augment and complement IMAX and Dolby Cinema. All three of these PLF executions will be a major area of growth for AMC in 2016 and in the years ahead. Three, AMC is committed to establishing a much better dialogue with major movie studios. Our program organization has excellent relationships already, but we are approaching studios at the highest levels to further enhance open communication, dialogue cooperation and trust between AMC and the source of most of our movie content. The better relationships we can have in a relationship business the better off AMC surely will be. At the same time though, while we intend to strengthen our major studio relationships, we are also committed to increasing the showcasing of alternate programming, including art films, faith-based projects, Asian films, Indian films, Hispanic Spanish language films and special events as distributed by Fathom Events, even sports programming. Four, another important relationship to develop is the potential for increased cooperation with the cinemas operated by Wanda, our largest shareholder. During just my second week on the job, Craig and I flew to China to meet for an entire week with the Wanda leadership. As the United States and China are the two largest movie markets in the world, we could only benefit from exchanging ideas on best practices and exploring more joint purchasing. As but one example of recent benefit two distinguished, talented and smart individuals well-known to Wanda have agreed to join AMC’s Board of Directors, namely Gary Locke, former Governor of the State of Washington, former U.S. Secretary of Commerce and former U.S. Ambassador to China; also John Zeng, President of Wanda Cinema Line, both have added immediate value as new AMC directors. Five, we are committed to creatively exploring and if wise to do so, participating financially in the intriguing facets of technologic change that will surround the consumer’s choices in the entire range of experiences surrounding movie watching. Lest anyone forget, it wasn’t so long ago that Blockbuster might have invested in Netflix. Six, the sixth priority on my list will be the focus on all of you, our shareholders and other broader investment community as a whole. I have said this before and you will hear me say it often again, I am a firm believer that management teams work for the owners of a business and in our case that means the shareholders of our company, many of whom are listening this morning. You and the securities analysts who help you understand our performance and where we are headed are extremely important to AMC and you are extremely important to me. As CEO, I intend to be visible and transparent with the investment community. I look forward to hearing your ideas for AMC as well as sharing with you mine. And finally, seven, we are going to grow this company, from marketing and product activity for surely, but also through acquisition. With the acquisition of the Starplex theaters in the recent rearview mirror just 2 months ago, at AMC, we believe that we understand regulatory review and how antitrust policy will be applied to the movie theater business. Speaking of Starplex, that acquisition added about 10% to our theater count and we did not need to add even one single employee in our corporate headquarters to facilitate that growth. We have built a platform that can absorb well a larger scale than at current, which means that acquisitions of smaller original circuits can be added to the world of AMC with great efficiency. And given that AMC has demonstrated that it’s been a forward-thinking and innovative exhibitor, we believe we can offer more varied, high-quality movie-going experiences to the movie-going public. Our theater additions, therefore, will be pro-consumer and pro-shareholder. What’s more? Given the highly fragmented nature of today’s theatrical exhibition industry, we think there are any number of potential transactions that can be accretive in the very first year and pass regulatory muster. Having said that and this is pretty important this will be the last time that I talk about our acquisition strategy. As a matter of new clear policy, AMC does not now or in the future intend to comment on market rumors or speculative activity. Similarly, since we will not quantify acquisitions into our growth plans and projections, until actual transactions are at hand. Again, we will be silent on this front until we have something worthy of being said. As we sit here today, I simply cannot be commenting publicly on whether we will have M&A activity today or not until a year from today or maybe not until after the year after that. But do know and do rely on this, at AMC we will be out there prospecting aggressively. And the instant we know we have a good opportunity at hand we will then let you know as soon as we possibly can thereafter. For those of who tracked my year at the helm with Starwood Hotels just as I have done here this morning, I laid out clear commitments of activity in my earliest days the leadership chair and then showed laser light focus to make concrete and rapid progress on each. Before I turn on the call over to you for Q&A, let me conclude by promising that as AMC did in 2015 and as I did elsewhere in 2015, we will promise that we will continue to work as diligently as it is possible within the purview of the management team to deliver meaningful results and the focus on the priorities that I have outlined this morning and others as they may arise to realize the potential that exists for AMC in calendar year 2016 and beyond. Thank you for listening. We realize it’s a long commentary, but this is my first real quarterly call, and I wanted to share with you where AMC is headed. We will now turn the call over to you to take your questions.