Neil Koehler
Analyst · H.C. Wainwright. Your line is now open.
Yes. That's a good question, Amit. The ruling takes effect immediately when it was -- when it came down, so in the 10th Circuit, which I believe is about 30% of all the refined gallons, mostly in the central part of the southwest of the country that the small refinery exemptions granted have to be only refiners that receive the exemptions when the automatic blanket SREs back in, I believe 2012, were eliminated. There is only two refiners that qualify for that. So, basically, it says there'll be no smaller fund exemptions. The real question now is, will the EPA take this legal precedent and apply it nationally? And it's hard to imagine that they wouldn't because that's the principle that was put down in this case is clearly national and its implication. And if the EPA were not to do that, then there would be an additional legal action to apply it nationally. It would also put one refiner at competitive disadvantage to another. So, there's a fairness issue. And in discussions with EPA, that was our indication that they agreed with that. So, there are stats. If the two -- refiners have appealed for a rehearing in the 10th Circuit, less than 10% of those requests are granted. So, just the law of average is there, which suggests there will be no rehearing. There could be an appeal to Supreme Court. We find that to be unlikely as well. So, now, it's about how does this get implemented? And that's going to be up to the EPA to provide indications that we -- would have expected fairly immediately. But, given the coronavirus there may be some delays in that to say how they are going to apply this nationally and what the implications are. The most immediate action will be how the EPA acts upon the small refinery exemptions that are in front of them, retroactive to 2019. And, we would expect that most of those, because of this ruling will not be granted. And if you recall, we already had a victory on the regulatory front when the EPA said that they would reallocate the anticipated small refinery exemptions gallons, and they essentially added about 770 million gallons to the RVOs for 2020, because that was what they anticipated, based on the three years of DOE averages, the recommendations that they would be granting. Our view now is that they will have a very hard time granting any of those small refinery exemptions. And that would then translate into a higher RVO than was passed with the 2020 RVOs. So, positive. There are steps along the way. It's really up to the EPA now to indicate how they are going to manage this new law of the land going forward.