Ken Bernstein
Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open
Thanks, Kamil. Great job. Good afternoon. Happy Valentine's Day. As you saw in our press release, we had a solid quarter, driven by continued momentum in leasing fundamentals especially in our higher barrier to entry street and urban assets. So today, I'll start by discussing some of the retailing and leasing trends that we're seeing and their positive impact on our portfolio. Then I'll also discuss what we're seeing in the transactional market. Amy is out on maternity leave, so I will also update you on the progress we're making in our fund platform. And then John will drill further into our operating metrics and balance sheet strength. Our solid operating results last quarter further confirms our thesis that we're in the early stages of an ongoing long-term separation between the haves and have-nots, both in terms of retailers and retailer real estate. Our fourth quarter fourth quarter leasing activity also provides a clear contrast of 2017 compared to 2018 from the perspective of tenant interest and leasing activity, with 2018 being significantly stronger than what we experienced in 2017. Starting early last year, driven by an improving economy and tenant performance, we begin to see a variety of tenants selectively going back on offense. What we're increasingly hearing from these retailers is that great real estate is going to be a key component of their growth and a critical area of differentiation for them especially in an omni-channel world. We're seeing this shift playing out in our portfolio, especially in our street and urban assets. In 2018, we set forth important goals to accomplish for our leasing in our core portfolio. Thanks to the combination of improving tenant demand and the hard work of our team, we substantially achieved the $8 million of incremental lease up that we sought. Notably, we accomplished this while still having a few very high-quality locations left to lease. Thus, the total incremental NOI from our releasing efforts will ultimately be closer to $9 million. This growth came from a variety of retailers and in many of the key markets that we're active in. For example, in Georgetown and Washington, DC, a market where young and expanding brands are enthusiastically entering, in the fourth quarter, we signed leases or opened stores with Aritzia, Reformation, Outdoor Voices. Similarly, in Lincoln Park, Chicago in the fourth quarter, we added digitally native retailers, Allbirds and Outdoor Voices, who are joining Serena & Lily, Bonobos and Warby Parker in our Armitage Avenue property with even more retailers to follow. While even the best streets, whether they be in SoHo or Georgetown or Lincoln Park, has enough vacancy to make this a tenant's market for now, in 2018, we saw a shift in sentiment and a shift in activity. The right retailers are showing up and aggressively enough that it's becoming clearer to us that the tides will turn. This improvement in tenant interest is not limited to just a few new young brands or screens to stores retailers in smaller format locations. It's broader than that. For example, as we mentioned on the last call, we anticipated that H&M would not renew their 28,000 square-foot lease on our State Street location in Chicago. That lease expires later this year. Compared to a year ago when we probably would have asked for your patience while we searched for a replacement, in the fourth quarter, our team successfully and profitably replaced H&M with Uniqlo. This lease is significant for a couple of reasons. First of all, there's been concern about our overall exposure to H&M. This solves that. And then secondly, there have been fewer large-format leases accomplished over the last year, but this lease shows that for the right location, retailers will show up. Not only did we see a significant improvement in tenant interest from 2017 to 2018, as we look at leasing interest in activity for 2019, we see a continuation of the momentum that began last year. And then as we think about the longer-term growth in our core portfolio, the combination of this current lease up with then additions from contractual and mark-to-market growth that we expect over the next several years, plus the contributions from our two key redevelopments, these three drivers should provide us with the 4% annual NOI growth over the next several years that we have outlined on prior calls. In terms of the redevelopment, we also made important progress on that last quarter. Most significantly, at our City Center property in San Francisco at year-end, we executed a lease with Whole Foods. While this lease is still subject to a variety of approvals, assuming we get through this, it will be a great additional anchor to this property. As you may recall, we commenced the redevelopment of this urban shopping center over a year ago with the densification of the property resulting in the addition of approximately 40,000 square feet of retail. We also took back the former Best Buy space and began looking for the right additional anchor to complement Target and the other retailers there. Whole foods will be that perfect addition. At our second redevelopment, Clark and Diversey in Chicago in the fourth quarter, T.J. Maxx opened as the anchor on the second level and we are now in the process of leasing up the street-level shop spaces. Then as we look beyond our two current redevelopments, there's additional properties in our portfolio that have embedded redevelopment potential down the road. This includes the redevelopment opportunity from our eventual recapture of our Kmart at crossroads in Westchester. This lease remains in the list of stores Kmart intends to retain, given that there is a limited lease term left and best and highest use would require either the densification or multi-tenant use, all of which would require our consent and our cooperation. We are highly confident that sooner or later, we will have an opportunity for real growth here. In terms of adding properties to our core portfolio. While up until recently, sellers in key street locations have been reluctant to mark their assets to market, we are starting to see some movement there. Although it's still a bit premature to map up adding assets that are both consistent with our long-term growth strategy and accretive to our net asset value, we're hopefully getting closer. Turning to our fund platform. As it relates to the leasing trends I just discussed, we're also seeing a similar selective but solid rebound in tenant interest. This includes the opening of a ShopRite supermarket and a TJX HomeSense in our Fund 3 Cortlandt Crossing development. It includes the successful releasing of our Fund 4 Fort Point project in Boston. And then at our Fund 2, City Point development, our hard work over many years is starting to finally gain real traction. The major large-format and anchor retailers are all private. Our Alamo Drafthouse is one of the strongest performing theaters in the country, and we recently signed an agreement with them to profitably expand them on the fourth level, which will more than double the number of screens and increase their overall square footage by over 50%. Target, Century 21 and Trader Joe's are all very pleased with their results. Our DeKalb Market food hall is best-in-class, performing ahead of our expectations, and we have very recently expanded it to include a bar lounge as well as an entertainment component. All of this progress is finally bringing us to the critical traffic and attention we need to bring the right curation of exciting and relevant merchants to our Prince Street passage on the street level. Based on the leases that our team is now negotiating, no property in our portfolio is speaking to the evolution of retail more than Prince Street at City Point. Then as it relates to our Fund 5 investments in higher-yielding but lower growth suburban assets, the properties remain stable and are performing consistent with our goals. We're clipping mid-teens leverage returns, which we find compelling as long as we remain disciplined. After all, our high-yield thesis is not predicated on strong NOI growth, but it does require NOI stability. In terms of new Fund 5 investments, in the fourth quarter, we acquired an additional high-yielding investment just outside of Atlanta for $45 million. That being said, 2018 volume was lower than we hoped. Fortunately, we're seeing a pickup in actionable investment opportunities. In fact, we already have an equivalent amount of transactions in our pipeline as we closed in all of 2018. On the value add front, new demand is just beginning to reemerge sufficiently as that we're starting to see some interesting opportunities for redevelopment. We have significant experience in retail development, redevelopment as well as mixed-use projects. All of them can be compelling. But we need to carefully watch construction costs, tenant demand and other risks of development and have a sober view of the realities of these types of projects. Since most of these projects, while sounding exciting and sounding accretive, will not be profitable, discipline and selectivity is essential. In conclusion, while 2018 had plenty of ups and downs in the capital markets capped off with a confusing and painful December, from a leasing fundamentals perspective, we're pleased with our solid performance and we like how we're positioned. Our highly differentiated core portfolio with its focus on high barrier to entry, retail assets in key gateway markets is poised for solid growth with very manageable redevelopment activity and very manageable capital expenditures. Our balance sheet is right where we want it. Our fund has plenty of dry powder to drive growth. But as important as the type and quality of our properties and the strength of our balance sheet and our profitable Fund 1nvestment platform, I am firmly convinced that an equally critical part of our differentiation comes from the talent, the commitment and the focus of the team members I have had the good fortune to work with at Acadia. A key member of our team has been Joel Braun. Joel has led our acquisition team and been an important part of Acadia since before we went public 20 years ago. At year-end, Joel announced his retirement. He has provided leadership and guidance to the company and friendship to many of us, especially me. Thankfully, Joel will still be working with us on a variety of important initiatives. More importantly, Joel has brought along a very strong team. Our acquisition division is now coheaded by Jessica Zaski and Reggie Livingston, both who have been with the company for many years. So I thank and congratulate Joel for a job well done. And I am thrilled to be working with our new acquisition leaders as we continue to drive Acadia's growth. With that, I'd like to thank the team for their hard work, their focus and their success last year. And I'll turn the call over to John.