Ben Rosenblum
Analyst · UBS. Marissa, your line is now open. Please go ahead
Thank you, Dominic and Rob, and good morning. I am pleased to report fourth quarter 2024 adjusted operating income of $66 million, or $1.27 per share. By comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2023, we reported adjusted operating income of $338 million, or $5.75 per share, which included $208 million in non-recurring benefits related to tax law changes in Bermuda and New York State. The Insurance segment contributed $98 million of adjusted operating income in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with $339 million in the same period of last year. The most notable item driving the quarter-over-quarter variance is the prior year benefit related to Bermuda tax law changes of $189 million. In addition, the fourth quarter of 2023 included an after-tax fair value gain of $25 million on Puerto Rico Contingent Value Instruments or CVIs that we received in 2022 as part of the resolution of most of our Puerto Rico exposures. Comparable amounts in the fourth quarter of 2024 were negligible. Since 2022, we've been strategically reducing our CVI position, and as of December 31, 2024, we held only 21% of the original notional amount we received, or $123 million on a fair value basis. Lastly, loss expense increased from $7 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 to $31 million this quarter, mainly due to lower expected recoveries on certain long-dated US public finance transactions and increased losses on certain insured healthcare transactions. Loss expense is based on both the amount of economic development in a reporting period and the amortization of the deferred premium revenue. In the fourth quarter of 2024, net economic loss development was $17 million, primarily attributable to certain healthcare and UK-regulated utility exposures. Turning to net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues. In the fourth quarter of 2024, we reported an increase to $107 million from $86 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. This was attributable to both an increase in accelerations due to refundings and an increase in scheduled net earned premiums. Our deferred premium revenue remained strong at $3.9 billion as a result of the new business production. In addition to the Insurance segment, our participation in the asset management business is an important strategic initiative in terms of diversifying our stream of earnings. Sound Point has been working steadily towards maximizing the synergies with the Assured IM business. We contributed to them in July of 2023. In the Corporate Division, adjusted operating loss was $34 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with $16 million in the prior year, which included a $19 million benefit related to New York State tax law changes. In terms of our investment results, the company's portfolio of increasingly diverse assets continues to perform well with a stable stream of interest income from the fixed maturity portfolio complemented by income from alternative investments. On a consolidated basis, net investment income from our available-for-sale fixed maturity and short-term investments was $93 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with $95 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. The available-for-sale fixed maturity and short-term investment portfolio primarily consists of these three types of investments. The largest component mainly consists of investment-grade long-term debt securities and short-term investments. Income from this portfolio is relatively predictable but may vary based on short-term interest rates. Net investment income from these securities was $71 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, which is in line with the $70 million of income in the fourth quarter of 2023. We also have another portfolio consisting of loss mitigation securities, which are bonds that we insured and later purchased at a discount to mitigate losses and other securities, including those we acquired in the resolution of previously troubled insured exposures such as the 2022 Puerto Rico resolution. In recent years, we have not been actively purchasing loss mitigation securities and have sold most of our Puerto Rico securities. We expect this portfolio to continue to amortize down. Net investment income on these investments was $11 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with $24 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Lastly, in the fourth quarter of 2024, approximately $263 million in CLO equity tranches that we previously held in a consolidated Sound Point fund were transferred to the available-for-sale fixed maturity security portfolio. Net investment income on CLO securities was $11 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. The company considers these Sound Point-managed CLO equity tranches to be a component of the alternative investment strategy. Our partnership with Sound Point continues to promote our alternative investment strategy with the goal of increasing the company's overall investment returns. In addition to the income from CLO equity tranches in the fixed maturity portfolio, earnings from our alternative investments were $24 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with $22 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. On an inception-to-date basis, alternative investments have generated an annualized internal rate of return of approximately 13%. On a full year basis, 2024 adjusted operating income was $389 million, or $7.10 per share, compared with $648 million, or $10.78 per share in 2023. Our prior results included a $175 million after-tax gain associated with the Sound Point and AHP transactions and the $208 million in tax benefits I mentioned earlier. Offsetting these large non-recurring benefits in 2023 were lower loss expense and increased net earned premiums in 2024. Our full year tax rate on adjusted operating income was 19.2%. The effective tax rate is a function of taxable income across jurisdictions and varies from period to period. The strong results in 2024 reflects the cumulative effect of our long-standing strategic initiatives across all aspects of the business. First, we continued to write new business across all markets in accordance with our strategy to grow our deferred earnings, and we continued to work with troubled issuers to resolve underperforming exposures. We have also successfully diversified earnings through our Asset Management segment and improved investment results via our alternative investment strategy, where the annualized returns have consistently exceeded returns on the fixed maturity portfolio. And lastly, we have continued to return value to shareholders through our successful capital management strategies. In 2024, we paid $68 million in dividends, and the Board of Directors recently approved a 10% increase to our quarterly dividend per share from $0.31 to $0.34. We also merged our US subsidiaries and paid $400 million in special dividends from these subsidiaries to the holding companies, which is an important step in order to meet our share repurchase goal for the year. This program continues to be one of our most accretive strategies. In 2024, we repurchased 6.2 million shares for $502 million at an average price of $81.28 per share. This represents 11% of the shares that were outstanding as of December 31, 2023. Since the beginning of our share repurchase program in 2013 and through December 31, 2024, we have returned $5.4 billion to shareholders under the program and retired over 150 million shares, ending the year with 50.5 million shares outstanding. As of today, our remaining authorization is approximately $276 million, and our holding company cash and investment balances are approximately $352 million, of which $53 million resides in AGL. Share repurchases, along with adjusted operating income and new business production, collectively contributed to new records for adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share of over $114 and adjusted book value per share of over $170. While adjusted operating income varies from period to period, the consistent quarterly increases in these book-value metrics reflect how the successful execution of all our strategic key initiatives build shareholder value over the long term. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2025, I want to highlight the successful conclusion of a long-disputed claim bought against us by Lehman Brothers International Europe, or LBIE in 2011. Following the exhaustion of LBIE's appeals, we will be recognizing a pretax gain of $103 million in the first quarter of 2025, which represents the full satisfaction of the judgment in our favor and includes reimbursement of attorneys, fees and expenses along with the accrued interest. I'll now turn the call over to our operator to give you the instructions for the Q&A period.