Benjamin Rosenblum
Analyst · Dowling & Partners
Thank you, Rob and Dominic, and good morning. I am pleased to report third quarter 2024 adjusted operating income of $130 million or $2.42 per share. By comparison, in the third quarter of 2023, we reported adjusted operating income of $206 million or $3.42 per share, which included a $190 million after-tax gain on the Sound Point and AHP transactions net of expenses. Excluding this onetime gain, adjusted operating income increased significantly primarily as a result of a benefit in loss expense in the third quarter of 2024. Before I delve into the developments for the quarter, I would like to remind you that in the financial guarantee GAAP accounting model, loss expense, which is included in adjusted operating income is different than economic loss development in that period. GAAP loss expense reached below investment-grade, insured transaction is reported only when its expected loss is in excess of its deferred premium revenue. As a result, loss expense may be higher or lower than economic loss development in a given period, but will converge over time as the deferred premium revenue amortizes. Third quarter 2024 economic loss development was a benefit of $34 million and includes a benefit of $56 million on our U.S. RMBS exposures, which continued to improve as home prices remain high and recoveries on both first and second lien loans improved compared with previous assumptions. And a $23 million benefit in the U.S. public finance sector, primarily due to improvements in certain health care exposures. It also includes a $45 million increase in expected losses on certain U.K. regulated utilities that we downgraded to below investment grade in the third quarter, including our Thames exposures. It is important to note, however, that our Thames exposures, our Class A senior debt at the operating company, not holding company obligations. In calculating expected losses, we are required by GAAP to apply probability weights to all possible scenarios in determining expected losses, and therefore, may report a GAAP expected loss even if we do not expect one in our most heavily weighted scenarios. In the third quarter of 2024, the loss component of adjusted operating income includes most of the benefit related to U.S. RMBS and health care. However, the economic loss development on U.K. regulated utilities is not included in loss expense because deferred premium revenue was sufficient to cover the expected losses. Turning to net earned premiums. We reported $101 million in the third quarter of 2024 compared with $99 million in the third quarter of 2023. Our deferred premium revenue which represents the storehouse of future earnings in the Insurance segment remained strong at $3.8 billion and is a direct result of the new business production that Rob discussed. Our investment portfolio continues to perform well and demonstrates the value of having both a stable stream of interest income from the fixed maturity portfolio as well as income from a diverse portfolio of alternative investments. In third quarter 2024, equity and earnings from our alternative investments was $28 million compared with $25 million in the third quarter of 2023. On an inception-to-date basis, alternative investments have generated an annualized internal rate of return of approximately 13%. Net investment income was $82 million in the third quarter of 2024 compared with $101 million in the third quarter of 2023. Net investment income from our externally managed and short-term portfolio was consistent year-over-year. The decline in investment income is attributable to our portfolio of loss mitigation securities. As a reminder, these are Assured Guaranty insured bonds that had expected losses, which we had purchased at a discount to mitigate those losses. In recent years, we have not been actively purchasing loss mitigation securities and therefore, we expect this portfolio to continue to pay down over time with the proceeds reinvested in the alternative investment or externally managed portfolios. Breaking down the third quarter 2024 results by segment. Insurance was the largest contributor with $162 million in adjusted operating income and the Asset Management segment contributed $4 million, which is in line with our seasonally adjusted expectations as GAAP revenue recognition rules result in Sound Point's performance fees generally being recognized towards the end of its calendar year, which will be reflected in the fourth quarter and first quarter results due to the lag in reporting. The corporate division loss was $29 million. On the capital management front, stock buybacks continue to be one of our most accretive strategies. And last week, our Board authorized an additional $250 million in share repurchases. In the third quarter of 2024, we repurchased 1.7 million shares for $131 million at an average price of $78.87 per share. As of today, our remaining authorization is approximately $385 million and our holding company cash and investment balances are approximately $286 million of which $33 million resides in AGL. The share repurchase program, along with adjusted operating income and new business production collectively contributed to new records for adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share of almost $114 and adjusted book value per share of over $166. While adjusted operating income varies from period to period, the consistent quarterly increases in these book value metrics reflect how the successful execution of all our key strategic initiatives build shareholder value over the long term. I'll now turn the call over to our operator to give you the instructions for the Q&A period.