Earnings Labs

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)

Q2 2018 Earnings Call· Sun, Aug 12, 2018

$170.14

-2.65%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Farmer Mac Second Quarter 2018 Investor Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lowell Junkins, Acting President and CEO. Please go ahead.

Lowell Junkins

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Good morning. I’m Lowell Junkins, Farmer Mac’s Acting President and CEO. Farmer Mac is pleased to welcome you to second quarter 2018 investor conference call. We posted a slide deck on our website that we’ll refer to throughout today’s call. Information about where these slides can be found is included in this morning’s press release. Our General Counsel is not available today. So, I’ve asked Anjali Desai to -- Farmer Mac’s Assistant General Counsel, to comment on forward-looking statements that management may make today as well as Farmer Mac’s use of non-GAAP financial measures.

Anjali Desai

Analyst

Thanks, Lowell. Some of the statements made on this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements under the securities laws. We make these statements based on our current expectations and assumptions about future events and business performance, and we may not be obligated to update these statements after this call. We caution you that forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from the results expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. In evaluating Farmer Mac, you should consider these risks and uncertainties as well as those described in our 2017 annual report on Form 10-K and our subsequently filed quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. In the analysis of its financial information, Farmer Mac sometimes uses measures of financial performance that are not presented in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States, which we refer to as non-GAAP measures. The three non-GAAP measures that Farmer Mac uses, are, core earnings, core earnings per share and net effective spread. Farmer Mac uses these non-GAAP measures to measure corporate performance and to develop financial plans. In management’s view, they are useful alternative measures for understanding Farmer Mac’s business. These non-GAAP measures may not be comparable to similarly labeled non-GAAP measures disclosed by other companies. Farmer Mac’s disclosure of non-GAAP measures is intended to be supplemental in nature. And these measures are not meant to be considered in isolation from, as a substitute for, or is more important than, the related financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP. Disclosures and reconciliations of Farmer Mac’s non-GAAP measures can be found in the most recent Form 10-Q and earnings release posted on Farmer Mac’s website, www.farmermac.com, under the Financial Information portion of the Investors section. A recording of this call will be available on our website for two weeks, starting later today.

Lowell Junkins

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Thank you, Anjali. Thank you all for joining us. Our second quarter 2018 results largely reflect the strong underlying fundamentals driving Farmer Mac’s business. From double-digit core earnings growth to continued favorable credit quality, Farmer Mac’s continues to post strong results. Our business volume grew to $19.5 billion, our substandard assets remained unchanged as a percentage of our portfolio, and our core earnings per share grew 22% year-over-year. These results demonstrate the focus and commitment of our team throughout the course of an ongoing agricultural cycle -- excuse me economic cycle in Farmer Mac’s transition period as we search for CEO. Our core earnings grew more than 20% year-over-year this quarter. The growth would have been even more significant in the absence of the paying off of an interest-only mortgage security in our investment portfolio, which had a $1.6 million after-tax impact. In fact, growth would have been more than 30% year-over-year. Our strong year-over-year growth was driven by a combination of good business volume growth, stable spreads, and the benefits of lower federal corporate income tax rate. Dale Lynch will describe this and other financial results in more detail shortly. Farmer Mac continues to execute its strategic initiatives to increase capacity and efficiency which includes investing in our people, technology, infrastructure, and maintaining our leadership position and financing the rural America. Benefits from the new lower tax rate has allowed us to further these initiatives while also increasing returns to our common stockholders. As guided by our mission, Farmer Mac’s has committed to find innovative ways to reach customers to increase availability and affordability of credit to rural America. And as demonstrated by our second quarter performance, Farmer Mac’s business model is performing quite well. Now, I’d like to turn to Curt Covington, our Executive Vice President, Agricultural Finance to provide you with an update of the current agricultural environment. Curt?

Curt Covington

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Thanks, Lowell. Good morning. Much has been said and written about the decline in farm income over the past three years. For 2018 USDA forecast real farm net cash income at about $91.9 billion, which is about 38% below levels experienced during 2012 farm income peak. The past three years have been very near the inflation adjusted average cash farm income. Finding three consecutive years with a lower average income level at this period, you must have to go back to 1980s. However, conditions in the farm today, while not as rosy we’d like them to be or perhaps not as bad as some thought it might be, there’re few dynamics that work and they help explain the better than expected credit performance. First, farm balance sheet generally came into the current downturn in very good shape, low leverage and good liquidity. Second, as markets deteriorated, farmers knew when and how to effectively tighten their belts. Third, with the earnings on their side, lenders didn’t panic, adhering to their time-tested and pragmatic underwriting standards. And finally, relatively low interest rates combined with active buyers in the market continue to support generally stable to higher farmland prices. These factors, when added together, may help explain why agricultural loan delinquency and loss rates remained better than expected. From a commodity perspective, USDA’s cash farm income is mixed. Of the 11 main commodity sectors identified, nearly all point to lower income in 2018 than in 2017. And while the income forecast is -- not particularly good for grain, oilseeds and certain meat proteins, other commodities, particularly specialty crops such as nuts, tree, fruit and vegetables appear to remain profitable, despite lower average farm gate prices. Farmland values have remained stable to slightly stronger across many parts of the country. Just last -- USDA…

Lowell Junkins

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Thanks Curt. Now, I’d like to ask Dale Lynch, our Chief Financial Officer, to cover our financial results in more detail. Dale?

Dale Lynch

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Thanks, Lowell. Our second quarter 2018 results reflect Farmer Mac’s commitment to delivering upon our mission while at the same time producing strong returns for our stockholders. We provide the unique combination of high quality assets positioned within a market that provides attractive growth opportunities and the GSE funding advantage designed to benefit rural America. In terms of business volume. As you can see on slide five, outstanding volume grew to $19.5 billion as of June 30 2018. We completed more than $1.3 billion of new business this quarter, resulting in a net growth of $145 million after maturities and repayments. This increase in outstanding business volume was driven by net growth in our Farmer & Ranch and Institutional Credit line of business. We purchased $825 million of AgVantage securities in the second quarter which resulted in net growth of $66 million. During the second quarter of 2018, Farmer Mac purchased AgVantage securities from MetLife and Rabo Agrifinance in the amounts of $500 million and $175 million, respectively. And these proceeds were used to refinance maturing AgVantage securities in the same amounts. Also contributing to the business volume this quarter was $30 million of net new business with four other institutional counterparties in a series of smaller transactions, primarily with AgVantage for funds product Our Farm & Ranch loan purchases were $224 million in the second quarter of 2018, which was lower year-over-year, primarily due to the absence of three larger loans totaling $85 million completed in second quarter 2017, but which were not replicated during the second quarter of 2018. Excluding these larger purchases, business volume loans for purchased in the first six months of 2018 was in line with that of first half 2017. We also added $126 million of Farm & Ranch loans under standby purchase commitments…

Lowell Junkins

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Thanks, Dale. Farmer Mac’s performance is strong as we continue to deliver upon the mission throughout agricultural’s economic cycles. Our capital base is also strong and growing, providing capacity for future growth. And we believe the dividend policy has helped stockholder value. We continue to bring in new personnel to fill the key positions here at Farmer Mac and to expand our investment in the technology and capacity to better grow our business. Farmer Mac has been a champion for and an integral part of this nation’s rural economy for 30 years, and we look forward to the decades ahead. Our CEO search efforts have made significant progress, and Farmer Mac’s Board expects to hire a new President and CEO with the perfect qualifications and expertise in a timely manner. We look forward to being able to provide you with more information on our next earnings call. And we would be happy now to answer your questions that you may have.

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Scott Valentin at Compass Point. Please go ahead.

Scott Valentin

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Just a couple of questions regarding credit. I know you can make reference to the fact that at some point credit may return to more historical levels, implying kind of an increase in delinquencies and substandard assets. Just wondering what that implies for the level of the allowance for loan losses, as a percent of loans. I think, you mentioned right now you’re running about 0.13% of loans. Just wondering what that could increase to if we get it back to a more kind of say 4% substandard assets and 1% delinquency level.

Dale Lynch

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

So, we’re not -- we haven’t gotten that level of specificity around that forward-looking component. I mean, if I were you, i.e. good proxy would be to look through our cycles over the past 10 years or so and sort of calculate historic substandards and allowances as a percent of our relevant portfolio. And then, that would give you good applicable long-term average. But, again, we’ve been trending at this 12 or 13 basis-point amount for a long period of time now, good five years or so, exclude ethanol. So, even reverting to historical averages would presumably take some time because they’re higher than that. But we’re not going to get specific, as you’d like on that statistic.

Scott Valentin

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Okay, fair enough. Yes. I know excluding ethanol, since it’s a high loss content in that product, so I just wanted to see if there is way that you should adjust for that and figure out what the appropriate level of loan loss reserve. But I will look back at the historical.

Dale Lynch

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

I think we gave you all the dollars on the ethanol. So, if you wanted to do that labor, you could get there. You could exclude the ethanol I think and get a good proxy for that.

Scott Valentin

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Okay, will do that. And then, just secondly, I think in the past, you said July 1st, is typically a large pay date or due date for loans. Just wondering if there is any way you can provide kind of a view into what you are seeing, post July 1st, if you see any change -- material change in delinquencies?

Dale Lynch

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Yes. We haven’t disclosed that. And good questions, but we don’t have the data on that yet.

Scott Valentin

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Okay. All right. And then, just in terms of tariff impact, I appreciate the macro color in terms of land values and crop prices and farm income. Are you seeing any signs -- when you talk to various banks and people that you purchase loans from, are you seeing any signs of reduced loan demand as farmers may be pull back on production because of the perceived impact of tariffs?

Lowell Junkins

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Curt, do you want to take that?

Curt Covington

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

No. Our -- it’s a good question. But we keep pretty close track of that. And what we are seeing in terms of demand is -- for loan products is still fairly robust. There was a lot of renewal activity that could take place over the last six months. But, we haven’t seen any significant drawback in terms of demand for loan credit across the country.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Lowell Junkins for any closing remarks.

Lowell Junkins

Analyst · Compass Point. Please go ahead

Seeing no more questions, I’d like to thank you for listening and participating this morning. I look forward to the next call to report our third quarter 2018 results in November of 2018. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.