Andrew H. Beck
Analyst · Jeffries
Thank you, Martin, and good afternoon. AGCO's regional net sales performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2012 is outlined on Slide 6. Currency translation had a negative impact of about 4% on AGCO's consolidated net sales, and acquisitions added approximately 4% to the sales in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to the same period in 2011. The Europe/Africa/Middle East segment reported a net sales increase of approximately 4%, excluding the impact of currency translation during the fourth quarter 2012 compared to the fourth quarter 2011. The negative impact of Fendt's lower production, especially on German sales, was offset by growth in France and Russia. North American sales increased approximately 8%, excluding currency translation impacts during the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to the same period of 2011. The GSI acquisition accounted for most of the increase. AGCO's fourth quarter net sales in South America grew about 30% from comparable 2011 levels, excluding currency translation impacts. Higher sales in Brazil due to healthy farm fundamentals and attractive government financing plans accounted for most of the increase. Net sales in our Asia/Pacific segment increased approximately 28% in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to 2011, excluding the impact of currency translation and the benefit of acquisitions. Sales growth in Australia and China produced most of the organic increase. Part sales were $295 million for the fourth quarter 2012, an increase of approximately 4% compared to the same period in 2011, excluding the impact of currency. Slide 7 details AGCO's sales and margin performance. Adjusted operating margins were down about 240 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to the fourth quarter of 2011. Gross margins were negatively impacted by costs associated with the start-up and low production at the Fendt facility in the fourth quarter of 2012. The decline in gross margins was partially offset by positive net pricing. Operating margins were also negatively impacted by market development expenses. In Europe/Africa/Middle East, operating margins were down about 400 basis points for the fourth quarter 2012 compared to the same period in 2011 due to lower production volumes, a weaker mix of products and the impact of the Fendt factory start-up costs. North American operating margins exceeded 8% in the fourth quarter of 2012 and exceeded 10% for the full year compared to the same period in 2011, including the benefit of GSI. Core margins were up significantly due to higher sales, a favorable sales mix and cost control initiatives. In the South American region, operating margins improved to 10% in the fourth quarter of 2012, up approximately 180 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of 2011. Favorable exchange impacts, cost-reduction benefits and higher sales volumes produced the increase. Excluded from our adjusted results is a noncash intangible asset impairment charge of approximately $22.4 million related to the company's Chinese harvesting business, as mentioned in our earnings release. The development of our harvesting business in China will likely take longer than originally estimated. We are optimistic that the Chinese farm equipment market remains a significant opportunity for AGCO. In the second half of 2012, we started to feel the impacts of the U.S. drought on our grain storage and protein production businesses in North America. Slide 8 details GSI sales by region and by product for the full year of 2012. Despite the unfavorable second half conditions, GSI sales grew by about 3% in 2012 compared to pro forma 2011 sales. Strong growth in Asia was partially offset by a decline in North America. GSI contributed approximately $0.38 of earnings per share during the full year of 2012 and was diluted by about 12% in the fourth quarter. Slide 9 looks at our depreciation and capital expenditure trends. We increased the investment in some of our plant productivity projects and new products during 2012 to support our growth and margin ambitions. Looking ahead to 2013, we expect to further increase our CapEx, as we continue to work to meet Tier 4 emissions requirements, refresh and expand our product line, upgrade our system capabilities, improve our factory productivity and establish assembly capabilities in China. Slide 10 addresses AGCO's free cash flow which represents cash provided by operating activities less capital expenditures. As a result of the strong free cash flow AGCO had generated over the last few years, our balance sheet and liquidity position at the end of 2012 remains strong. In 2013, we plan to continue investing for growth and profitability improvement and additional investments in our plants and new products. After covering increased spending on these strategic investments, we are targeting another year of solid free cash flow for 2013. At the end of December 2012, our North America dealer month supply on a trailing 12-month basis was approximately 5 months for tractors, 3 months for combines and 7 months for hay equipment. Other working capital details are as follows. Losses on sales receivables associated with receivable financing facilities, which is included in other expense net, was approximately $5.4 million during the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to $6.4 million in the same period of 2011. Shifting focus to AGCO's financial management, Slide 11 shows how our net debt to total capital remains at very conservative levels even after adding the debt associated with the GSI acquisition completed late in 2011. In 2012, we reduced our debt by approximately $200 million and going forward, we look to maintain our conservative balance sheet and investment-grade rating as we begin to return cash to shareholders. With a healthy balance sheet and improved U.S. cash flow generation capacity, AGCO took the first step in returning cash to shareholders during July when our Board of Directors approved a share repurchase [indiscernible] repurchased $18 million of its common stock during 2012. The primary purpose of the new program is to limit dilution resulting from our equity incentive plans. We took the next step last month when we announced the initiation of a $0.10 quarterly dividend which will be paid in March of this year for the first time. Our outlook for 2013 for our regional markets is captured on Slide 13 and has not changed since we first communicated it to you during our analyst meeting in December. We're anticipating relatively flat demand on a global basis. In North America, the strong financial position of row crop farmers and the expectation of farm income above historical averages should support healthy demand from the professional farming sector. Strong farm fundamentals are expected to continue in Brazil in 2013 and clarity around government financing programs are expected to stimulate growth between 5% and 10% compared to the levels in 2012. We are expecting a mixed demand pattern in Western Europe, with weakness in Northern Europe due to the lingering impacts of a wet Fall and continued softness in Southern Europe due to tight credit and dry weather. Solid demand across some of the larger European markets is expected to offset most of the decline in Northern and Southern Europe. We are currently forecasting 2013 demand in Western Europe to be flat to down 5% compared to 2012. Slide 14 highlights assumptions underlying our 2013 outlook. Our forecast assumes price increases ranging from 2.5% to 3% on a consolidated basis and we expect the impact of currency to be approximately neutral. In 2013, expenditures on new product development and Tier 4 emissions requirements will cause an increase in engineering expense by approximately 10% to 15% or about $40 million. We also look for new products in our productivity and purchasing initiatives to drive improved gross margins for next year. For 2013, our SG&A expense will include expenses associated with site and manufacturing start-up and market support cost amounting to about $10 million for our Chinese operations. We mentioned at our analyst meeting in December that the recognition of certain U.S. deferred tax assets was under review. We did make a change in the fourth quarter of 2012 which resulted in a write-up of our deferred tax assets due to improved profitability of our North America business. Subsequent to the write-up, our effective tax rate will increase in 2013. However, our U.S. cash taxes will remain lower through at least 2013. We are now forecasting an effective tax rate of between 32% and 34% for 2013. Slide 15 lists our view of selected 2013 financial goals. We are expecting 2013 sales in the range of $10.2 billion to $10.4 billion. We expect it to continue to improve gross and operating margins from 2012 levels, including significant investments and product development, market development and startup costs associated with our manufacturing projects. We expect increased capital expenditures to be in the $400 million to $425 million range and free cash flow in the $125 million to $150 million range after funding the expected increase in capital expenditures and higher inventory levels associated with Tier 4 product transition. Slide 16 lists our updated view for 2013 earnings per share. The only change from our December analyst meeting is the negative impact of the new higher effective tax rate, which we are currently estimating at about $0.40 per share. We are now forecasting earnings per share in a range from $5.10 to $5.35 per share. In 2013, we expect more normal seasonality for our production and our sales. As a result, our forecast assumes first quarter and second quarter sales will be approximately flat with the same periods in 2012, and we are projecting first quarter earnings per share of approximately $0.85 per share. With that, operator, we are ready to open the call for questions.