Gayn Erickson
Chief Executive Officer
Okay. That's a good question and kind of tease out how we are looking at our forecast. And I know there is -- we have lots of feedback with respect to people on how we look at our forecast and what we're doing. Primarily what we've discussed is forecast for revenues and less about exactly what the bookings are. And obviously bookings come before revenues because you book, ship, get revenue. Right or wrong, when we started off the year, we tried to be clear in communicating that when we set the expectation for the year, we had basically communicated the majority of the forecast was only with installed base customers, customers that were already won, were already communicating to us that they intended to buy more, arguably, believed to be a conservative stance at that time, because the alternative was just sort of looking into when is COVID -- and what's going to happen etcetera, how do we anticipate. So we quite frankly just listened to what our customers are telling us. Generally speaking, when you look at forecasts, you actually forecast not only what the customers specifically tell you, but we anticipate winning new deals or that the customer will ramp or something, and that tea leaves that was a bit of a challenge to do. In our latest, if you will, guidance, we again took now our current specific customers, including the deal that we just won again and what are they specifically telling us. This is what we and the Board have decided is our best way to communicate our guidance because we have clear line of sight to those deals. It also helps to explain and I in my prepared comments, , it says, oh, and then we have other deals. So again, I just want to make sure people understand that most of what we talk about when we guide is, I have -- customer A has told me they need this configuration for this price by this month. And that's how we built up our forecast. The downside of course to that is, if a customer knew something we can be wrong in specific incremental steps. And this is -- we just try to do our best at building that out. In that range, if you want to interpret because this is -- I guess, we could have been as clear, what they tell us right in the middle of that, okay? So as we said, okay, there is some downside, upside and we are just -- we're trying to be as appropriate as we can in this environment to give people some guidance, while we continue to be -- still, we manage the business to ensure that we are profitable. By the way, in that range, you could also interpret we are profitable at the low end, so we must be pretty profitable at the high-end and that's a fair way of thinking about it. So there's still dynamic range within that forecast. And you specifically asked about customers and the target Tier 1 and Tier 2 and just for folks that have not listened in the last couple of few calls, we were describing Tier 1s as customers that were significantly large enough to do maybe $6 million to $10 million a year on a, call it, average or a good year, whereas maybe a Tier 2 might be $1 million to $3 million. It's not how much we love those customers, but just sort of the buying power, which is a combination of their size, the markets they serve, etcetera, and we have a number of both of those -- both as customers that are already qualified and those new opportunities. So back to your question in terms of, do we anticipate in our forecast for current customers, absolutely include some of our biggest current installed base customers, as well as some of the smaller guys. And in the case of the Tier 1 that we announced that we won late in May, at the end of the last fiscal year, as they shift from buying the first NPI system to production, we see them being a Tier 1 customer. I mean, they are physically a very large company and have a significant forecast with us. And so that's an example where they are small to begin with, we consider them a Tier 1, they were already a customer but they'd only bought a small amount and they're about to buy a, call it, significant test out from us. So we have that in silicon photonics for certain. We have many more customers. We had both -- I think five or six customers that are already qualified for silicon photonics and then we have -- over twice that many companies we are engaged with on the silicon photonics and the photonics space. Again, in our revenue forecast primarily there is no revenue in the range that we shared with you relative to new customers coming in. One of the challenges we have right now is the reality is we're month into our third quarter. And while we do have inventory, there is only so much time until even with large orders, we're not going to be able to necessarily ship at all before the end of May. And so I think as we anticipate this year, we can see that the bookings, for example, would continue to be strong as the ramp is near mostly just shifted, which would afford us to have a believable strong backlog going into next year. Related to just new customers going forward, again, we're not talking -- we try not to forecast all the bookings and things like that, but for certain, we do have, over these next 18 months and certainly in the next year, anticipate that we will win a number of new customers across several segments, including silicon photonics, including silicon carbide, as well as some new application spaces that we haven't spent a lot of time talking about, but we kind of alluded to in the memory and microcontroller space and some other things. There's actually a lot of activity and a lot of discussion in the market around wafer level burn-in right now, but I think one of the themes that -- and I really spend a lot of time answering this, but one of the challenges right now is there is a lot of folks that are -- the semiconductor industry, I want to make sure people understand, is actually doing really well right now, which seems to be a big disconnect with respect to why is Aehr having a couple of the worst quarters in recent memory. This is kind of a straight away, if you will, where everyone going as fast as they can, the Microns of the world, many semiconductor companies, they're basically buying exactly what they're doing and they are just going fast. There is actually not a lot of kind of new development. There is not a lot of new process turns. People are kind of just sticking to the knitting and doing exactly what they're doing. And so in a scenario like us where we're just winning into these new silicon photonics, silicon carbide applications, some of those customers have, kind of, pulled back, slowed down those ramps to their customers. And as a result, the bulk of our business was involved in this NPI or this new product introduction space. I'll just say one more thing here. Last quarter, I mentioned it. It was absolutely dead on that prior to then, everybody was just completely holding their breath. They -- it was -- we couldn't fly in and see them, they were just sort of -- things were just sort of moving laterally, but over the last, let's say, three months, customers have realized they're not going to wait for the pandemic to be over and the conversations -- here is the order, it's coming, how we going to install it. We could -- maybe later in the call I'll go into the actual tactical logistics of -- us flying in people and they're sitting in quarantine then they do the installations in the -- how to manage through all that, but we need to do that, because we're going to be installing a bunch of systems in the second half. And back to you, Tyler.