Duncan Russell
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thank you, Lard. I will zoom in on our second half 2025 results, starting on Slide 7. The operating results increased by 11% year-on-year to EUR 858 million, with all of our businesses delivering higher figures. Operating capital generation increased by 8% with strong figures from Transamerica. Free cash flow in the second half of 2025 amounted to EUR 388 million, and we received remittances from all units. Cash capital at holding decreased to EUR 1.3 billion at the end of 2025, mostly because of capital distributions to shareholders in the form of dividend payments and share buybacks. Valuation equity per share increased by EUR 0.60 with a positive contribution from both shareholders' equity and the CSM balance after tax. Gross financial leverage was stable at EUR 4.9 billion. Finally, the group solvency ratio remains robust at 184%. As announced in May last year, the eligibility of the perpetual cumulative subordinated bonds in our capital stack ended as of January 1, 2026. These bonds contributed 7 percentage points to the group solvency ratio as of December 31, 2025. Now using Slide 8, I will address the development of our operating results in the second half of 2025. Starting with the U.S., the operating result increased by 5% in euros or 14% in U.S. dollars, thanks to a combination of growth and more favorable variances. The operating results of strategic assets increased by 10% in local currency and benefited from business growth, notably in the individual life and retirement plan businesses, partially offset by a lower operating margin in the Distribution segment. In financial assets, the operating result increased because of more favorable experience variances compared to the second half of 2024. On the other units, the operating results of the U.K. increased, benefiting from business growth in favorable markets, which led to both a higher CSM release and increasing noninsurance revenues in the second half. In the International segment, the increase of the operating result was also driven by business growth and a onetime item in China. Furthermore, the results from China benefited from a true-up related to the local implementation of IFRS 17, which is booked in the second half. Aegon Asset Management's operating results improved in the global platforms business mostly from the impact of favorable markets on revenues and from an improved operating margin. Looking forward, as mentioned at our recent Capital Markets Day, over the 2026 to '27 period, we aim to grow the operating result of the group by around 5% per year from the EUR 1.5 billion to EUR 1.7 billion in run rate in 2025, taking into account an assumed euro-dollar exchange rate of $1.20. I now turn to Slide 9. Here you see our IFRS net results for the second half of 2025. Nonoperating items were unfavorable in the period and were largely driven by realized losses on assets transferred in the context of the SGUL reinsurance transaction. These realized losses were taken in the P&L, were fully offset in other comprehensive income and therefore, had no impact on the development of shareholders' equity. Net impairments reflect an ECL reserve increase from new investment purchases as well as a small number of downgrades and defaults of bond investments. Fair value items were negative mostly from revaluations of solvency hedges in the U.K. and other charges were mostly driven by various items in the U.S. and U.K. and partially offset by the positive result from the stake in ASR. I am now on Slide 10. In the second half of the year, our shareholders' equity grew by 2%, and our CSM balance increased by 4% over the same period. The increase in the CSM was largely from business growth in the U.S. strategic assets. We saw a 24% increase in CSM in the second half, thanks to profitable new business, favorable assumption changes and experience variances. The CSM of our financial assets decreased due to the runoff of the book as well as the impact of the SGUL reinsurance transaction. These developments mean that the CSM balance of our strategic assets now accounts for 57% of total Americas CSM. Outside the U.S., the changes to the total CSM balance were limited. Overall, valuation equity per share, which represents shareholders' equity plus net of tax CSM increased by 7 percentage points over the second half of 2025 to EUR 9.06 per share. Moving now to Slide 11. OCG before holding, funding and operating expenses increased by 8% compared with the second half of 2024. OCG from the U.S. increased by 19% or 27% in U.S. dollars over the same period with a higher contribution from both the strategic and financial assets. Mortality and morbidity claims experience was favorable in the second half of 2025, while it was unfavorable in the prior year period. OCG benefited also from a favorable release of required capital from the investment portfolio actions and a reduction in short-term financing. This was partly offset by a higher new business strain from growing our strategic assets. Adjusting for favorable items, the U.S. OCG in the second half of 2025 fell within the guidance of $200 million to $240 million per quarter. In the U.K., OCG decreased mostly because the second half of 2024 includes some favorable items, while the International segment reported lower OCG. At Aegon Asset Management, OCG increased due to favorable markets and an improved operating margin compared to the prior year period. Holding, funding and operating expenses were largely unchanged year-over-year at EUR 142 million, bringing the total for full year 2025 to EUR 295 million. As a result, OCG after holding, funding and operating expenses for the full year 2025 amounted to EUR 992 million. I'm now turning to Slide 12. The capital positions of our business units remain strong and well above their respective operating levels. The U.S. RBC ratio increased by 4 percentage points compared to June 2025 to 424%. The increase was driven by OCG from the operating entities applying the RBC framework. This is partly offset by remittances to the holding. Onetime items and management actions negatively impacted the RBC ratio by 3 percentage points during the period. The negative impact on the RBC ratio of the SGUL reinsurance transaction was offset by capital investment into Transamerica from the group. Market movements had a limited impact. In the U.K., the solvency ratio of Scottish Equitable decreased by 2 percentage points to 183%. Operating capital generation in the period was offset by remittances to the holding and investments in the business. Market movements here also had a limited impact. On Slide 13, you see that cash capital at holding has come down in the second half of 2025 to EUR 1.3 billion. This development is consistent with our aim to reach the midpoint of the operating range for cash capital at holding around EUR 1.0 billion by the end of 2026. Free cash flow amounted to EUR 388 million in the period and included remittances from all our units as well as dividends received from our stake in ASR. For full year 2025, free cash flow amounted to EUR 829 million, consistent with our target of around EUR 800 million for the year. We returned nearly EUR 1 billion of capital to our shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in this period. Consequently, our share count ended 2025, 5% lower than at the start of the year. Capital injections into the businesses amounted to EUR 751 million and mostly related to the investment in Transamerica to offset the impact of the SGUL reinsurance transaction. This is funded by the disposal of part of our ASR stake, 12.5 million shares, as indicated at our Capital Markets Day. The remainder mostly related to investments in our international investment management businesses and in Aegon Asset Management. We have already launched a share buyback for the first half of 2026, totaling EUR 227 million and expect this to be completed on or before June 30, barring unforeseen circumstances. This share buyback covers both the first half of EUR 400 million program for 2026 announced at the Capital Markets Day and EUR 27 million related to share-based compensation plans. After completing this first part, we expect to launch the second half of the EUR 400 million program. I am now moving to my final slide, #14. To conclude, the results over the second half of 2025 were strong, and we are confident we are well positioned to meet our growth ambitions for 2026 and 2027. As discussed at our 2025 Capital Markets Day, the next time we present our results will be in August with the first half figures. We will also move the timing of our results conference call to 2:00 p.m. Central European Time to accommodate U.S.-based investors. With that, I would now like to open the call for questions. Please limit yourself to 2 questions per person. Operator, please open the Q&A session.