Duncan Russell
Analyst · Michael Huttner from Berenberg
Thank you, Lard. Let me start with an overview on Slide 7. In the first half of 2025, the operating results increased by 19% year-on- year mostly reflecting an improvement at Transamerica. Operating capital generation before holding, funding and operating expenses decreased by 2% over the same period, mainly driven by higher new business strength. Free cash flow in the first half of 2025 amounted to EUR 442 million, and this is a significant increase compared to the EUR 373 million generated last year. Cash capital at holding remains very healthy, standing at EUR 2 billion for the end of June, allowing us to announce an increase of our ongoing share buyback program. On a per share basis, valuation equity, which consists of the sum of shareholders' equity and the CSM balance after tax decreased by 5% in the period, mostly from the impact of unfavorable exchange rate movements on the group CSM, which were partly offset by a strong net result. Exchange rate movements were also the driver for the reduction of gross financial leverage. And lastly, the group solvency ratio decreased by 5 percentage points compared with year-end 2024 to 183%, mainly from the new share buyback program and the reservation of the 2025 interim dividend. Using Slide 8, I will address the development of our IFRS net results in the first half of 2025. The operating results amounted to EUR 845 million coming in at the top end of the EUR 750 million to EUR 850 million run rate range we had indicated with the full year 2024 results. In the U.S., the operating results improved materially year-on-year to EUR 685 million within our guided range of EUR 650 million to EUR 750 million. The result benefited from growth in our strategic assets, notably the Protection Solutions business with some offset in distribution where the operating margin fell in the first half of 2025 as previously flagged, as we invested further in the business. We had an improved result in financial assets because of less unfavorable experience variances from onerous contracts. Claims experience was largely offset by reserve releases. Unfavorable reserve changes due to premium variances that we saw in the U.S. in the second half of 2024 continued into the first half of 2025. As we previously flagged, but to a materially lesser degree. The operating results of the U.K. increased is benefiting from business growth and favorable markets. In the International segment, the operating results increased mainly from a higher CSM release in TLB and Spain and Portugal. Aegon Asset Management's operating results as well as out of the holding was broadly stable compared with the same period of last year. Moving on. Nonoperating items were an aggregate favorable in the period, driven by hedging results recorded in fair value items. Other charges amounted to EUR 207 million, mostly because of the assumption updates in the U.S. and at TLB to address the experience we've recently seen. Finally, we booked a EUR 50 million contribution from our stake in ASR. Looking forward to the second half of the year, we are increasing our guided operating results range for the U.S. by $50 million to EUR 700 million to EUR 800 million, but we're keeping the group guidance of EUR 750 million to EUR 850 million, reflecting the current exchange rates. I'm now moving on to Slide 9. Based on the strong net result and a positive contribution of the assumption updates to OCI, shareholders' equity increased slightly over the period. The CSM balance decreased over the period, mostly because of unfavorable currency movements. In U.S. dollars, the CSM of our strategic assets in the U.S. increased thanks to profitable new business, while the CSM of our financial assets decreased due to the runoff of the book, the impact of claims experience as well as the impact of strengthening policyholder behavior assumptions. Outside the U.S., the changes to the total CSM balance were limited with the U.K. CSM decreasing modestly on a local currency basis and the International segment, CSM increasing modestly from assumption updates. Overall, valuation equity per share decreased by 5 percentage points over the first half of 2025 to EUR 8.47 per share mostly due to the exchange rate development. Slide 10. Operating capital generation or OCG decreased by 2% compared to the first half of 2024. OCG from the U.S. decreased by 4% or 3% in U.S. dollars. OCG from the strategic assets decreases our investments in business growth, drove higher new business strain. OCG from financial assets increased mostly from higher fees as variable annuity account balances increased on the back of favorable markets. Furthermore, claims experience in the period was less than favorable than in the same period last year and included $86 million of unfavorable mortality, largely related to the Universal Life book. Looking through the unfavorable claims experience in the period, we continue to observe a quarterly OCG run rate for the Americas of around $200 million to $240 million. The OCG benefited from favorable markets as well as favorable nonrecurring variances. The International segment reported lower OCG with improved underwriting experience in TLB being offset by lower OCG from China. Aegon Asset Management's OCG was stable compared to the same period of last year. Looking ahead, we continue to expect OCG before holding, funding and operating expenses of around EUR 1.2 billion in 2025. I'm now turning to Slide 11. The capital positions of our business units remain robust and above their respective operating levels. The U.S. RBC ratio decreased by 23 percentage points compared with year-end 2024 to 420%. Market movements had a 15 percentage points negative impact on this ratio. Of this, 5 percentage points was due to hedging, rebalancing and cross effects as a consequence of elevated market volatility in April, which we flagged with the first quarter trading update. The remaining unfavorable impact was largely driven by valuation moves in our alternative asset portfolio and lower interest rates. Onetime items had a 9 percentage points unfavorable impact due to restructuring costs, the annual actuarial assumption update and several smaller items. For the remainder, operating capital generation in the period was offset by remittances to the group. Finally, in mid-August, we decided to expand the dynamic hedge program of our variable annuities to cover the equity market exposure of the fees of 25% of the base contracts. This represents an additional lever available to us to manage our risk profile going forward, reduces our economic equity market exposure on the VA block, and thus capital requirement and first solidifies the expected runoff profile, albeit with a small negative impact on run rate OCG. In the U.K., the solvency ratio of Scottish Equitable decreased by 1 percentage point to 185% as operating capital generation in the period was offset by remittances and investments in the business. Slide 12. Cash capital at holding remains extremely healthy, standing at just over EUR 2 billion. Free cash flow amounted to EUR 442 million in the period and included remittances from all our units as well as capital returns from our stake in ASR. We returned EUR 110 million of capital to shareholders through share buybacks. And in addition, we purchased 14 million worth of shares, which will be used for share-based compensation plans. Today, we have announced a EUR 200 million increase for the currently ongoing share buyback program, bringing it to a total of holding, around EUR 1 billion by the end of 2026. Let me conclude our presentation with the final slide on Page 13. Taking into account our performance in the first half of 2025 and the outlook for our businesses, we are on track to achieve all of our financial targets for 2025. We look forward to meeting you at the Capital Markets Day on December 10 in London. At the event, we will share the conclusion of the review regarding a potential relocation of Aegon's head office to the United States. And with that, I would now like to open the call for questions. Please limit yourself to 2 questions per person. Operator, please open the Q&A session.