Earnings Labs

Ameren Corporation (AEE)

Q2 2019 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 2, 2019

$111.97

-0.20%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Ameren Corporation Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andrew Kirk, Director of Investor Relations for Ameren Corporation. Thank you. Mr. Kirk, you may begin.

Andrew Kirk

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. On the call with me today are Warner Baxter, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Marty Lyons, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; as well as other members of Ameren management team. Warner and Marty will discuss our earnings results and guidance as well as provide a business update. Then we will open the call for questions. Before we begin, let me cover a few administrative details. This call contains time-sensitive data that's accurate only as of the date of today's live broadcast and redistribution of this broadcast is prohibited. To assist with our call this morning, we have posted a presentation on the amereninvestors.com homepage that we will reference by our speakers. As noted on Page 2 of the presentation, comments made during this conference call may contain statements that are commonly referred to as forward-looking statements. Such statements include those about future expectations, beliefs, plans, strategies, objectives, events, conditions and financial performance. We caution you that various factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. For additional information concerning these factors, please read the Forward-looking Statements section in the news release we issued today and the Forward-looking Statements and Risk Factors sections in our filings with the SEC. Lastly, all per share earnings amounts discussed during today's presentation, including earnings guidance, are presented on a diluted basis, unless otherwise noted. Now here's Warner, who will start on Page 4 of our presentation.

Warner Baxter

Analyst

Thanks, Andrew. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Earlier today, we announced second quarter 2019 earnings of $0.72 per share compared to $0.97 per share earned in 2018. A summary of the key drivers of the year-over-year decrease to $0.25 per share as provided on Slide 4, which Marty will discuss in more detail in a moment. I'm pleased to report that despite some weather related headwinds in the second quarter, we continue to effectively execute our strategic plan. And today reaffirmed our 2019 earnings guidance range of $3.15 per share to $3.35 per share, reflecting solid year-to-date results. In particular, I would like to note that during the second quarter some of our customers and the communities we serve were affected by historic flooding and tornadoes. While, the impact on our operations and financial results was manageable, the impact on our customers and communities by these severe weather events was in some cases devastating. Our thoughts and prayers remain with those who have been affected by these events. We continue to work with our customers, local communities, agencies, and governmental leaders to help our customers in several ways, including providing energy assistance funds. I also want to thank our co-workers for their extraordinary efforts to safely restore service to our customers, maintain safe and reliable service throughout our operations as well as volunteering their time to help those in need during this challenging period. It was clearly a tremendous team effort. Moving to Page 5, here we reiterate our strategic plan, which we have been executing very well throughout the year, we expect our plan to continue delivering significant value for our customers and strong long-term earnings growth for our shareholders. The first pillar of our strategy stresses investing in and operating our utilities in a…

Marty Lyons

Analyst

Thank you, Warner and good morning everyone. Turning now to Page 9 of our presentation. As Warner mentioned, today we reported second quarter 2019 earnings of $0.72 per share, compared to earnings of $0.97 per share for the year ago quarter. Here we highlight the key factors by segment that drove the overall $0.25 per share decrease. Ameren Missouri, our largest segment reported decreased earnings of $0.25 per share. This reflected lower electric retail sales which decreased earnings by an estimated $0.22 per share, primarily due to mild early summer temperatures in the quarter compared to extremely warm temperatures in the second quarter of last year. Ameren Missouri’s results also reflected this year's scheduled refueling and maintenance outage at our Callaway Energy Center that reduced earnings by $0.08 per share compared to 2018 when there was no refueling outage. The next Callaway refueling is scheduled for the fall of 2020. These items were partially offset by the positive comparative impacts of timing differences in 2018 related to federal tax reform, which are not expected to impact full year earnings comparisons. Earnings for Ameren Illinois Natural Gas were down $0.01 per share primarily due to a change in rate design, which is not expected to impact full year results. And finally, Ameren Parent and other results decreased $0.02 per share, primarily due to timing of income tax expense, which is also not expected to impact full year results. Earnings per share for Ameren Transmission and Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution were up $0.02 and $0.01, reflecting increased infrastructure investments. In addition, Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution earnings reflect a lower expected allowed return on equity under formulaic rate making of 8.5% in 2019, compared to 8.9% for the prior year. The 2019 ROE is based on a projected 2019 average 30-year treasury yield…

Operator

Operator

At this time, we'll be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Warner Baxter

Analyst

God morning, Julien.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

Hey good morning.

Warner Baxter

Analyst

How are you doing?

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

How are you?

Warner Baxter

Analyst

Terrific, thank you. How are you?

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

Not bad. So maybe just to kick things off, if I can, I'd love to go back to your comments Warner on the terminated agreement with EDF and how you're thinking about next step? And also just to make sure that you've secured your interconnection upgrade costs and firm those up on the other projects as well, do you think this was very much isolated in this project or is this kind of a wider theme that you're seeing in the MISO footprint?

Warner Baxter

Analyst

Yes, thanks Julien. So a couple of things, number one, yes, with regard to the two projects that we have, the 400 megawatt project and the 300 megawatt project we have the final interconnection costs done. And that the case with the EDF that was only in the second stage so now those other two are done. So now keep in mind for the 400 megawatt project, we have the CCN already and so a well positioned that can move forward on that. We still have to get the interconnection agreement, but we expect that by the fall. And so we don't see any major issues with that. With the 300 megawatt project, as you heard me say, we’re real pleased to get a non-unanimous stipulation with the Missouri Public Service Commission staff. And so we're well positioned to have that the review by the Missouri Public Service Commission and we look forward to having that in, hopefully a decision by October. So as I step back and look where we're at with the 700 megawatts that we have in place, I think we're very well positioned to get the necessary regulatory approvals and to begin construction in those projects and to get them all in service by the end of 2020.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

Got it. And just to clarify here, with respect to the initial project that was terminated, your expectation then you'd go back to try to find an alternative project, restructure this project somehow to address some of the transmission costs, however that might ever be possible or perhaps just forego it altogether because obviously as you said, you're ahead of the plan as you initially described anyway.

Warner Baxter

Analyst

Yes, so good question Julien. So look, the bottom line is, is that with the 700 megawatts now that we've announced, we are in compliance with the Missouri Renewable Energy Standard. So we're well positioned and in fact that's consistent with what we've said at the outset of these conversation and consistent with our integrated resource plan. But like I also said, we continue to look at renewable energy investment opportunities and now I mentioned that the Renewable Choice program certainly will file an updated integrated resource plan next year. So we're not done taking entire renewable energy projects is my message. But with regard to the Missouri Renewable Energy Standard, we will be in compliance with these two projects that we plan on executing next year.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

Got it. And if you permit me just to follow up here, with respect to transmission once more, we've seen some interesting headlines thus far on the MISO 2019 plans and where those budgets are coming in. Also, I suppose September we're going to see the next round of the draft FY2020. How are you thinking about altogether, transmission spending trajectories, if you can comment at least initially on some of the procedures?

Warner Baxter

Analyst

Look, this is why I sit here today obviously with regard to the other project. I can't speak to the other projects, I can speak to ours. And as I said a moment ago, all the two projects that we got across the finish line, they were in line with what our estimates were. We certainly don't have visibility to all the projects that are going on in the system. That's certainly something that MISO has the visibility. But what I will say when you talk about broader transmission, you think about all the interconnection agreements and all the things going on here. I do continue to say and believe that when you look to the long-term that there is an opportunity for us as a system in MISO to look at multi-value projects to try and address the transmission matters issues that we see today and the continued desire to put more renewable energy generation on our system. So this is an area of focus as Shawn Schukar and all of our team are working with MISO and many others to be thinking about. We have to get through these interconnection agreements today, but we need to be speaking about those multi-value projects down the road because that's what's going to enhance our overall system prospectively.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

Great. Another round of MVP. Excellent. Well, thank you there. I'll leave it.

Warner Baxter

Analyst

Thank you, Julien.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Greg Gordon with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Warner Baxter

Analyst

Good morning, Greg. Good morning, Greg. Greg, you there?

Operator

Operator

Greg, are you muted? Greg, you're live with our speaker.

Warner Baxter

Analyst

Well, let me go to the next question. If Greg can get back into queue, if he jumps back on, please.

Operator

Operator

Okay. Our next question is from Insoo Kim with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Warner Baxter

Analyst

Good morning.

Insoo Kim

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. Go back to your comments, I just want to clarify – want to make sure I understand regarding the potential solar/battery facilities. Is that something that new or something new that you guys are considering for the CCN? And again, it seems like the timing that you talked about at the end of 2020, kind of matches up with the last 157 megawatts of the other wind but is this potentially to serve as an offset to your plans?

Warner Baxter

Analyst

So I'm going to let Michael Moehn talk about this exciting project. And so Michael, I know this is part of your Smart Energy plan, so why don’t you talk a little bit about the benefits that he's going to bring to customers.

Michael Moehn

Analyst

Perfect. Thanks, Warner. Good morning. Yes, so really these three projects that Warner referred to these battery plus storage facilities, there's three projects across the Missouri footprint. And they really are focused primarily on reliability enhancement. So we are making these investments in lieu of investments that we would need to make in sub stations, et cetera, to enhance the reliability on that system. There will be some environmental benefits associated with them. They have some renewable energy credits that come as part of the solar project. So, I mean they – we will account for those, but they really are being driven by economics and reliability thing. We're excited about them, so hopefully more to come there. But as Warner said, we're going to be filing those CCN very, very soon for those two projects.

Warner Baxter

Analyst

So Insoo, you also had a question in there as to whether this was incremental to our existing plan. They are not incremental. They have been part of our five year plan, part of the smart energy plan. We mentioned these projects as part of our comments because these are innovative technology projects that we're doing on behalf of our customers and certainly have part of the renewable energy space as well.

Marty Lyons

Analyst

So yes, I think just one important note on that 15% requirement that we have as part of the Missouri Renewable Standard, there is a 2% requirement for solar as well 2% of that 15%. So these will go to satisfy some of that as well.

Insoo Kim

Analyst

Understood. That's all I had. Thank you.

Warner Baxter

Analyst

Terrific. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ali Agha with SunTrust Robinson. Please proceed with your question.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning. First question, can you Marty, give us any more insight to your thinking on how you're planning to fund the wind acquisitions next year? Should we assume for planning purposes that the financing will be next year or any thoughts to any kind of a forward component to get that off the table today, just what’s your latest thought there?

Marty Lyons

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson. Please proceed with your question.

Sure, Ali. Good morning. Thanks for the question. Overall, I have to say our financing plans haven't really changed from what we communicated to you and others on the February call and then again on the May call. On the February call, you recall that, we laid out our $13.3 billion five-year capital expenditure plan that included about, at that time $1 billion for wind, today as you heard on the call, it looks like $1.2 billion of wind. And as you also heard, we do feel confident about those projects. We said at that time, of course, and we reiterated May, I should say that our financing plan included equity issuances under our DRIP and our employee benefit plans about a $100 million a year and the issuance of common equity to fund a portion of Ameren Missouri’s wind acquisitions. We believe those two sources of equity, Ali, will allow us to fund the capital expenditure plan while maintaining approximately the same capitalization levels we have currently and our current credit ratings, which as you know, we've worked hard to achieve. So sifting through all that and answer your question, I would say that other than the DRIP and employee benefit plan issuances and with respect to our current capital expenditure plans, we have no plan to equity – external equities other than for these wind projects, which are expected to close next year in the fourth quarter of 2020. So with respect to your question about options, we do have options in terms of accessing the equity markets. We're clearly aware of the ways our peer utilities have approached the equity markets. We're monitoring market conditions and ultimately we'll move forward in the manner that we think is most appropriate given the funding needs. So I think that's what we've got to say on it, I don't think I'll comment beyond that but we recognized the options that we have before us.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson. Please proceed with your question.

And Marty, can you also remind us, do you still believe there is a further debt capacity at the [indiscernible] company level at this stage for Ameren?

Marty Lyons

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson. Please proceed with your question.

Look, we've laid out the financing plans that we have. I think you're aware of the credit ratings that we have overall and where the thresholds are. We've talked about that on prior calls, Moody's, we have a BBB+ and FFO to debt threshold of 13%. At Moody's, Baa1, the threshold is a little bit higher there with a CFO pre-working capital to debt of 17%. And so a little bit – I can say, less cushion there with respect to the Moody's rating. So we're conscious of that. We watch where the credit metrics are. We like those credit ratings, we'd like to hold those credit ratings. And we think about other factors, maintaining a strong balance sheet, positioning these various investments like the wind for success in the regulatory environments. And ultimately, all of that led us to the conclusions that we reached and communicated earlier this year. And as I just repeated that, overall we want to keep our capitalization levels approximately where they're at today at all of our legal entities. And we do plan to fund a portion of these wind investments with equity and we think that's the right balance overall.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson. Please proceed with your question.

Got it. And my second question related to the 13.3 billion five year plan. I know in the past you all have talked about that the Missouri legislation, incentive, that there was more CapEx potentially you could spend, there was more need for CapEx at Missouri. And I'm just wondering when's the next time you all will update us on the CapEx plans and should we assume that there is potentially upside to this plan that currently is at 13.3 billion.

Marty Lyons

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson. Please proceed with your question.

This is Marty and I'll start off in case others want to jump in, but I would say that, traditionally we update our long-term capital expenditure plans in February, on our year end call. As we noted on this call, we put out a $13.3 billion plan this past February. That included $1 billion for wind now we stand at $1.2 billion. So, logically we'd include that in February. And then with respect to further grid modernization, we'll continue to assess that. Last year when we rolled forward our five year plan, we updated our capital expenditures across the board, notably in Missouri, increased our capital expenditure plan excluding the wind about $1.5 billion versus the prior five year plan. So we've incorporated a considerable amount of incremental, infrastructure spending, in that plan. But you're absolutely right in terms of that $1.5 billion, that was only a percentage, a fraction of the overall, potential incremental capital expenditure that we can make, at Ameren Missouri over time. So I don't want to speculate today on what we may or may not add next February, but clearly we have a very large infrastructure, investment pipeline and some great projects incremental to those that we've already put in the current five year plan, incremental projects that we think would bring great value to our customers.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Gregory Gordon with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Gregory Gordon

Analyst · Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. So I know you did talk about the energy infrastructure legislation that I guess has been tabled for the potentially the veto session coming up in the fall. Can you talk about what it is that you specifically would like to see that legislation, accomplish if it does get considered and then also, Vistra had their earnings call earlier today and they've made a proposal with regards to coal to solar plant that I think, is the basically impacts the assets that you sold Dynegy all those years ago. How do you see that even though it doesn't have obviously a direct financial impact at Ameren’s P&L, how do you see that proposal? Do you think it's beneficial overall to your customers? Would you be supportive of it or any other comments you might want to, give us on that topic?

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Sure. Thanks Greg. This is Warner. So look, I think we've been clear and we'll continue to be clear that our focus has been and will continue to be on passing the grid modernization legislation that supports the extension of formula rates to the 2032. You heard me talk on the call about the significant benefits that it's brought to Illinois in terms of investment, reliability, jobs and still affordable. And so we think, and this is why this has been extended twice and it's why it's received such favorable votes in the committees, in both the Senate and the house. And we're hoping that the legislature takes it up because we think it would be a good thing for the state of Illinois for many years to come. So that's going to continue to be our primary focus. There's no doubt that there are several other legislative proposals being looked at in the state of Illinois. Very, comprehensive, very complex and so the only thing I can say is that Richard Mark and his team are at the table speaking with all these stakeholders trying to sort through all the details, including Vistra's proposal. So it would be premature for me to speculate just exactly where those proposals are, all the pros and the cons. The only thing I can tell you is that they're complicated, they're complex. They're big bills and that, doesn't mean that they won't be considered either in the veto session or next year. The only thing, rest assured we're at the table.

Gregory Gordon

Analyst · Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Okay Warner, thank you.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks Greg.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Sophie Karp with KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

Sophie Karp

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

Hi. Good morning guys.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

Hello. Morning.

Sophie Karp

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

So a couple of questions if I may. First, I wanted to follow-up on the solar plus battery projects that you discussed and I was wondering if, you looked at other applications of battery storage technology at this point, maybe replacing picking generation capacity or even addressing the one with some of those transmission interconnection issues that you discussed. Is that a potential solution to transmission interconnection costs?

Warner Baxter

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

So, Michael, why don't you talk a little bit about this innovative project that we're doing in Missouri and then we can talk a little bit more. Shawn, you can weigh in on some of the things on the transmission side.

Michael Moehn

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. Again, these are, exclusively focused on the distribution side. So, again, looked and found places within our system that we need to make some reliability enhancements and combining these two projects together to make those reliability improvements in lieu of traditional sort of substation investments. My sense is, and Sean can comment on this, with respect whether those kind of applications are available on the transmission side as well.

Shawn Schukar

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

Yeah, this is Shawn, on the transmission side, we do look across the system to see where there are alternatives just like Michael was describing on the distribution side. And, and continue to look for those, as we look for solutions to enable both reliability improvements on the system and those generating generator interconnection.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. So look at the bottom line is energy storage is something that we as a company look very carefully at per variety of different reasons. And, and we're pleased that we're – we'll look forward to having a conversation with the stake holders in Missouri on this Missouri project and we're going to continue to kick the tires on energy storage is probably, because this is, as I think we all know the costs continue to come down. There are various applications and so we'll continue to put our innovative efforts forward to see if we can actually do some of these projects for the benefit of our customers.

Sophie Karp

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Gregg Orrill with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Gregg Orrill

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, Gregg. Thank you. You spoke a little bit about the lag, in between cases on I guess the gaps in the PISA mechanism and I was wondering if it's possible to, scale that impact or quantify it in some way, how you're thinking about it.

Marty Lyons

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, Greg, this is Marty. Hey, thanks for the question. I don't know that I have a way to really, scale it, our objective and walking through those piece of mechanics was really just to help you and investors understand some of the nuances of the accounting rate making, because we still do receive a number of questions about it in the context of the need for this current rate review and the next one to incorporate the wins. So, look bottom line is, as you know this piece is really been a big step forward for us in terms of improving the Missouri regulatory framework for infrastructure investment. We've significantly increased our ongoing and planned investment, so it's really terrific. It's really, I guess to say again, there's a small amount of lag in terms of the rate making. That's for the 15% that doesn't get PISA deferrals. And then we have this delayed recognition of equity earnings due to the accounting for the piece of deferrals and that needs to be understood. Today we're booking those, debt returns at about a 5% rate. So, that may help you in terms of some of your modeling, and as we stated, we're going to continue to manage the business in terms of cost management, and regulatory rate reviews to earn as close to the allowed returns as possible. While as I said earlier, being mindful of operating and business needs. So, I think Greg, those are the components that we wanted to communicate and lay out and hopefully you can use that to help with your modeling.

Gregg Orrill

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, thank you.

Marty Lyons

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Neil Kalton with Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Neil Kalton

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Hi Guys. Good morning. Quick question just to clarify on new wins, so as you're evaluating and thinking about it, so ex the RCP would you will necessarily have to go be a part of the IRP process or not necessarily?

Michael Moehn

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Good Morning Neil. It's Michael Moehn, I’ll answer that question. Yes, I think as Warner stated earlier, I mean as we think about the future and think about future opportunities, it's really going to be part of that integrated resource planning process that we have here in the state of Missouri. And so those renewable opportunities will be, considered in the context of that again, we are complying with the Missouri renewable standard with the 700 megawatts and the $1.2 billion investment today. So future investments are really going to be contemplated in the IRP.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Neil I'll just add to this and you broke up a little bit at the front-end. Of course, the renewable choice program though is different. That would be outside of, that's a separate program that's been approved by Missouri Public Service Commission. And we already talked about that in the past, so just want to clarify that.

Neil Kalton

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Perfect. Thank you.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentleman, we've reached the end of the question-and-answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back to Andrew Kirk for closing comments.

Andrew Kirk

Analyst

Thank you for participating in this call. A replay of this call will be available for one year on our website. If you have questions, you may call the contacts listed on our earnings release. Again, thank you for your interest in Ameren. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. And we thank you for your participation.