Marty Lyons
Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Warner and good morning everyone. Turning now to page 10 of our presentation. Today, we reported first quarter 2019 earnings of $0.78 per share compared to earnings of $0.62 per share for the year-ago quarter. The key factors that drove the overall $0.16 per share increase are highlighted by segment on this page. Earnings for Ameren Illinois Natural Gas were up $0.05 reflecting higher delivery service rates that were effective in November 2018 incorporating increased infrastructure investments and a higher allowed ROE as well as a change in rate design. The first quarter 2019 benefit from the change in rate design is not expected to impact full year results. Earnings for Ameren Transmission and Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution were up $0.03 and $0.02 respectively reflecting increased infrastructure investments. Ameren Missouri, our largest segment reported earnings that were also up though slightly. The results reflected higher electric retail sales due in part to colder winter temperatures in 2019 compared to the year-ago period, which contributed approximately $0.03 per share as well as recognition of MIA performance incentives related to the 2013 and 2016 energy efficiency plans, which contributed $0.05 per share. These favorable factors offset $0.08 of timing differences in 2018 between income tax expense and revenue reductions related to federal tax reform. These timing differences will impact 2019 quarterly earnings comparisons, but are not expected to impact the full year comparison. Finally, Ameren Parent and Other results increased $0.06 reflecting a lower effective tax rate, primarily due to tax benefits associated with share-based compensation and timing of income tax expense. This income tax expense item is not expected to impact full year results. Before moving on let me briefly cover electric sales trends for Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution for the first three months of this year compared to the first three months of last year. Weather-normalized kilowatt-hour sales to Missouri residential and commercial customers on a combined basis increased about 1% excluding the effects of our Missouri energy efficiency plan under MIA. Kilowatt-hour sale to Missouri industrial customers decreased 3% after excluding the effects of our energy efficiency plan. We exclude MIA effects, because the plan provides rate recovery to ensure that earnings are not affected by reduced electric sales resulting from our energy efficiency efforts. Weather-normalized kilowatt-hour sales to Illinois residential and commercial customers on a combined basis decreased about 1.5% and kilowatt-hour sales to Illinois industrial customers decreased 2%. Recall that changes in electric sales in Illinois no matter the cause did not affect our earnings, since we have full revenue decoupling. Moving to page 11 of our presentation. I would now like to briefly touch on key drivers impacting our 2019 earnings guidance. We're off to a solid start in 2019 and as Warner stated, we continue to expect 2019 diluted earnings to be in a range of $3.15 to $3.35 per share. Select earnings considerations for the balance of the year are listed on this page and are supplemental to the key drivers and assumptions discussed on our earnings call in February. I will note that our second quarter earnings comparison will be negatively impacted at Ameren Missouri by the return to normal weather and the spring 2019 Callaway refueling and maintenance outage. Together, these two items are expected to reduce second quarter earnings by approximately $0.30 per share year-over-year. I encourage you to take this into consideration as you develop your expectations for our second quarter earnings results. In addition, we expect the first quarter timing differences related to income tax expense in Ameren Missouri and Ameren Parent to cause quarterly variations for the balance of the year. However, they are not expected to impact the full year earnings comparison. Moving now to page 12 for a discussion of select regulatory matters. Last Friday Ameren Missouri provided a 60-day notice to the Missouri Public Service Commission of its intention to file for an electric rate review, which we plan to file as early as July. Some of the key drivers of this rate review include increased infrastructure investments and other costs of service, and it will incorporate lower coal and transportation expenses into base rates. Base rates were last reset, April 1 2017 and are required to be reset at least every four years to allow for continued use of the fuel adjustment clause. This filing will allow us to meet that requirement and provide flexibility to time our next rate review to include our wind generation investments. We will provide additional information when we file and won't go into any further details today. Our goal remains to invest in energy infrastructure to improve customer service and satisfaction while keeping rates affordable and keeping earned returns close to the allowed returns in all of our jurisdictions. Moving to Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution regulatory matters, last month we made our required annual electric distribution rate update filing, requesting a $7 million base rate decrease. Under Illinois' formula ratemaking, Ameren Illinois is required to file annual rate updates to systematically adjust cash flows over time for changes in cost to service and to true-up any prior period over or under recovery of such costs. The ICC will review the matter in the months ahead with a decision expected in December of this year and new rates effective early next year. Turning to page 13, for Ameren Transmission there have been recent developments that may impact the base allowed ROE from MISO transmission owners. In November 2018, the FERC issued an order in the MISO ROE complaint cases proposing a new methodology for determining the base allowed ROE. The MISO transmission owners, including Ameren filed initial briefs and reply briefs regarding the proposed new methodology. We believe the FERC proposed methodology with certain modifications, would be an improvement over the existing approach. In addition, in March the FERC issued two notices of inquiry regarding transmission ROEs and incentives. The base ROE notice of inquiry broadens stakeholder input beyond the parties to ongoing complaint cases. The transmission incentives notice of inquiry seeks comments on FERC's electric transmission incentives policy. We are unable to predict the timing and ultimate impact of the proposed ROE methodology on the complaint cases or the notices of inquiry at this time. Finally, turning to page 14 I will summarize. We expect to deliver strong earnings growth in 2019 as we successfully execute our strategy. As we look to the longer term, we continue to expect strong earnings per share growth driven by rate base growth and disciplined financial management. Further, we expect this growth to compare favorably with the growth of our regulated utility peers. In addition, Ameren shares continue to offer investors an attractive dividend. In total, we have an attractive total shareholder return story that we believe compares very favorably to our peers. That concludes our prepared remarks. We now invite your questions.