Earnings Labs

Ameren Corporation (AEE)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Fri, Jul 31, 2015

$111.43

-0.70%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Ameren Corporation Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Doug Fischer, Senior Director of Investor Relations for Ameren. Thank you, Mr. Fischer. You may now begin.

Doug Fischer

Analyst

Thank you and good morning. I am Doug Fischer, Senior Director of Investor Relations for Ameren Corporation. On the call with me today are Warner Baxter, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer and Marty Lyons, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, as well as other members of the Ameren management team. Before we begin, let me cover a few administrative details. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet and the webcast will be available for 1 year on our website at ameren.com. Further, this call contains time-sensitive data that is accurate only as of the date of today’s live broadcast and redistribution of this broadcast is prohibited. To assist with our call this morning, we have posted on our website a presentation that will be referenced by our speakers who may use terms or acronyms which are defined in the presentation. To access this presentation, please look in the Investors section of our website under Webcasts & Presentations and follow the appropriate link. Turning to Page 2 of the presentation, I need to inform you that comments made during this conference call may contain statements that are commonly referred to as forward-looking statements. Such statements include those about future expectations, beliefs, plans, strategies, objectives, events, conditions and financial performance. We caution you that various factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. For additional information concerning these factors, please read the forward-looking statements section in the news release we issued today and the forward-looking statements and risk factors sections in our filings with the SEC. Warner will begin this call with comments on second quarter financial results, full year 2015 earnings guidance and a business update. Marty will follow with a more detailed discussion of second quarter results and an update on financial and regulatory matters. We will then open the call for questions. Now, here is Warner who will start on Page 4 of the presentation.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

Thanks, Doug. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us. Today, we announced second quarter 2015 core earnings of $0.58 per share compared with core earnings of $0.62 per share in last year’s second quarter. Results reported today, we remain on track to deliver solid earnings growth in 2015 and expect that 2015 core earnings to be in the range of $2.45 to $2.65 per share. Key drivers of our second quarter core earnings are listed on this page. I will highlight a couple of them and Marty will discuss each of these drivers later in the call. Consistent with our strategic plan, year-over-year earnings comparisons are benefiting from the significant investments we are making to better serve our customers. These incremental investments continue to be targeted towards our electric transmission and delivery businesses that operate on their formulaic ratemaking. However, in the second quarter of 2015 milder weather grow retail electric sales volumes and earnings lower than second quarter 2014 levels. Further, seasonal rate redesign and variances in the timing of revenue recognition and the formulaic ratemaking in Illinois also negatively affected the comparisons for the quarter and year-to-date periods, but these effects are expected to reverse over the remainder of the year. Our second quarter 2015 core earnings do exclude two unusual items. Those are results from discontinuing operations, primarily reflecting recognition of a tax benefit related to the favorable resolution of an uncertain tax position and a loss provision resulting from discontinuing the pursuit of a construction and operating license for a second nuclear unit in Ameren Missouri’s Callaway Energy Center. This relates to development costs incurred in 2008 and 2009 and is reflected in continuing operations. While we continue to believe nuclear power must be an important clean energy source for our company and country,…

Marty Lyons

Analyst · Wells Fargo

Thank you, Warner. Good morning, everyone. Turning now to Page 11 of our presentation, today we reported second quarter 2015 GAAP earnings of $0.61 per share, which matched second quarter 2014 GAAP earnings. Excluding results from discontinued operations and 2015 loss provision for discontinuing pursuit of a license for a second nuclear unit at Callaway, Ameren recorded second quarter 2015 core earnings of $0.58 per share compared with second quarter 2014 core earnings of $0.62 per share. Second quarter 2015 earnings from discontinued operations were $0.21 per share, primarily resulting from recognition of a tax benefit related to resolution of an uncertain tax position. This tax benefit reflects a settlement reached in June with the IRS, which resolved tax matters associated with the divestiture of our merchant-generation business. As Warner mentioned, with this settlement in hand we have even greater confidence in our ability to fund the growth plan we announced in February, as well as the potential incremental investments discussed without issuing any additional equity, including no issuances of equity through our dividend reinvestment and 401(k) plan. As of June 30, our combined tax benefits from net operating loss carry-forwards, tax credit carry-forwards and expected refunds stand at $643 million, including $454 million at the Ameren parent company level, which are expected to offset income tax liabilities into 2017. In addition to excluding discontinued operations, core earnings also excluded the previously mentioned Callaway license-related provision, which was $0.18 per share. Turning now to page 12, here we highlight factors that drove the $0.04 per share decline in second quarter 2015 core earnings compared to second quarter 2014 core earnings. Key factors included lower retail electric sales volumes, which reduced earnings by $0.04 per share. Milder early summer temperatures accounted for an estimated $0.03 per share of this decline with…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question.

Brian Russo

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

Hi, good morning.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

Good morning Brian.

Brian Russo

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

The $0.5 billion to $1 billion of CapEx investment upside, when might we get an update on that and are there drivers or regulatory hurdles that you have to navigate through in order to feel comfortable increasing the existing CapEx budget?

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

Thanks for the question. I think really it's going to be a matter of – we have talked before about our annual planning cycles and certainly wanted to provide greater clarity on some of the growth pipeline that we have been communicating about in the past. But we will be evaluating that potential CapEx over the remainder of the year, taking into consideration multiple factors, which is really about customer needs, balancing that with rate impacts, coordinating these projects and the timing of these projects with other projects that we have got ongoing over the next five years, making sure we have got the labor, vendor support, etcetera available to complete all those projects. So there are number of things that go into the assessment, but we would expect to complete that over the remainder of this year and certainly have included on the exact amount by the time we give guidance next February.

Brian Russo

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, great. And I would imagine that would be upside to the 6% rate base CAGR and correct me if I am wrong, but probably put you at the higher end of your EPS CAGR?

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

Well, we are certainly – as we have discussed on the call not updating our EPS CAGR. This added CapEx would certainly be incremental to the rate base growth that we have provided in the slide that we have. And as we mentioned on the call, certainly this added CapEx bolsters our confidence and our ability to achieve the earnings growth within the previously communicated expectations.

Brian Russo

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. And correct me if I am wrong, but you will not be paying cash taxes through 2016, is that accurate?

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

Yes. Through 2016, so as it stands right now, we will begin paying taxes again sometime in 2017.

Brian Russo

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, great. And then forgive me that I haven’t read through the gas stipulation yet, but what drove the higher ROE in this case versus your previously allowed ROE?

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

I can’t really recollect, going back to the last case the factors that got to that. But certainly here, we were successfully able to reach a compromise and accord with the other parties in the case. And the 9.6% is the outcome of those conversations and will be the ROE pending final decision by the IPC later this year.

Brian Russo

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

Just remind me that the previous gas rate case outcome was that stipulation or did that go to hearing?

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

No, it wasn’t. It went to hearings until that 9.08 from the final – for the previous case was the result of an ICC decision.

Brian Russo

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question is coming from the line of Glenn Pruitt with Wells Fargo.

Glenn Pruitt

Analyst · Wells Fargo

Hi, guys. Good morning.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Wells Fargo

Good morning, Glenn.

Marty Lyons

Analyst · Wells Fargo

Good morning.

Glenn Pruitt

Analyst · Wells Fargo

Just for clarification, your statement that there will be no equity needs, does that include DRIP type programs?

Marty Lyons

Analyst · Wells Fargo

Yes, Glenn. Thanks. Yes, if we weren’t clear, that is correct. As we talked about on the call, we are able to reach a settlement of our 2013 tax return with the IRS, which not only gave us the ability to book the gain we booked in discontinued operations, but also it took away uncertainty relative to the overall tax benefit that we have at Ameren Corp., which we reiterated on the call today, was about $454 million of accumulated tax benefits at Ameren Corp. So, with that added certainty, as we look at the CapEx investment plans that we have got, as we look at our overall financial plans looking out over the next 5 years, we really don’t see the need for any equity, including from the DRIP and 401(k).

Glenn Pruitt

Analyst · Wells Fargo

Okay, great. Thank you.

Marty Lyons

Analyst · Wells Fargo

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, there are no additional questions. I would like to turn the floor back to Mr. Fischer for concluding comments. Thank you. We have next question coming from the line of David Paz with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead with your question.

David Paz

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead with your question

Hey, good morning.

Marty Lyons

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead with your question

Good morning, David.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead with your question

Good morning, David.

David Paz

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead with your question

Just on the incremental investment opportunities, could you just roughly breakdown at least as you see it today, how much of that would go toward FERC-regulated transmission?

Marty Lyons

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead with your question

Yes, sure. David, this is Marty again. That $500 million to $1 billion really breaks down about a third, a third, a third between Illinois Electric Distribution, Illinois Gas Distribution and Transmission, FERC-regulated transmission.

David Paz

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, great. And second question, in your 7% to 10% EPS target or outlook, do you – are you still assuming rising ROEs in Missouri and Illinois?

Marty Lyons

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead with your question

Yes, David. Sure. Just going back to the guidance we have given there, that growth has always been driven by the transparent rate base growth plans that we have got, the reduction of parent and other costs, monetization and reinvestment of the tax assets and certainly, the expectation of rising interest rates and ROEs over time.

David Paz

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. How about the assumed sales growth in that outlook?

Marty Lyons

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead with your question

The assumed sales growth in that outlook, David, has been about flattish as what our projection is really out through time. That’s about what we have been seeing this year, frankly, in terms of the overall sales growth when you take into considerations the energy efficiency programs that we have got. It’s about flat year-to-date and we expect residential and commercial sales this year again excluding the impacts of our energy efficiency programs in Missouri to be about flat. So, that’s the expectation embedded in those longer term plans.

David Paz

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead with your question

Great, thank you. Thank you so much.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead with your question

Thanks, David.

Operator

Operator

Our next question – gentlemen, at this time, we have a question coming from the line of Joe [indiscernible] with Avon Capital. Please go ahead with your question.

Andy Levi

Analyst

Hi, it’s Andy Levi from Avon. How are you guys doing?

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

Hey, Andy.

Marty Lyons

Analyst · Wells Fargo

Andy, how are you?

Andy Levi

Analyst

That was a really good rundown. Just want to make sure I heard it correctly, so literally no equity at all, DRIP, ESOP, anything through ‘19, is that what you said?

Marty Lyons

Analyst · Wells Fargo

Yes, Andy. That is what we have said.

Andy Levi

Analyst

Okay. So, whatever the share count is today that’s what it should be in 2019, is that correct?

Marty Lyons

Analyst · Wells Fargo

That’s our expectation as we sit here today, Andy, yes.

Andy Levi

Analyst

Okay, great, because I had built in a little bit. Okay, otherwise, I think everything else was pretty clear. When do you typically update your CapEx forecast and the $500 million to $1 billion or whatever else you may come up with, when could we possibly – will that be at EI or will that be next year?

Marty Lyons

Analyst · Wells Fargo

Andy, as I said in response to a question a little while ago, we will continue to evaluate that over the remainder of this year. Most likely, I would say we would give an update in February. And if we have greater clarity to provide before that, we would do so. But as we go through our annual planning process, it generally lines up that we would be able to give a comprehensive update on CapEx and rate base growth plans in February.

Andy Levi

Analyst

And I thought you and Warner gave a really good rundown today. So, good job.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead with your question

Thanks, Andy.

Marty Lyons

Analyst · Wells Fargo

Thank you, Andy.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Kevin Fallon with SIR Capital Management. Please go ahead with your question.

Kevin Fallon

Analyst · SIR Capital Management. Please go ahead with your question

Hi. I am sorry if you already walked through this and I missed it, but on the incremental $500 million to $1 billion of CapEx, I thought you said it was like a third each among the different buckets you highlighted. Can you walk through the thresholds of what you need to do to get approval to do that? Will the – is it purely formula rates that you won’t need to get approval from the ICC or the FERC or will they have to sign off on the spending?

Marty Lyons

Analyst · SIR Capital Management. Please go ahead with your question

No, no real sign-off on the spending. I mean, if you go back after the call and read through the transcript, I think we gave some pretty good description of the types of projects that we are looking at, which in a lot of cases is replacement of aging infrastructure, putting new service in where needed based on certain changes in growth, in customer usage, as well as certain expenditures that we believe we are going to need to make to meet the safety code requirement and otherwise improve the safety and reliability of our system. So, all of these expenditures look like they are needed for customer service and don’t look to require any specific regulatory approvals.

Kevin Fallon

Analyst · SIR Capital Management. Please go ahead with your question

So, just to clarify there, it’s effectively, as long as you guys, you being Ameren deem that they are required and needed that it’s basically file and implement?

Warner Baxter

Analyst · SIR Capital Management. Please go ahead with your question

Yes, absolutely. And as I said earlier in response to a question obviously, we have to weigh all this with the timing of other projects we have got in our pipeline, make sure that we can execute these well for the benefit of our customers and certainly need to weigh these customer needs in these projects again with other projects in our system and with the rate impacts.

Kevin Fallon

Analyst · SIR Capital Management. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, that’s great. Thank you.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · SIR Capital Management. Please go ahead with your question

Thanks, Kevin.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Thank you. At this time, I will turn the floor back to Mr. Fischer for closing comments.

Doug Fischer

Analyst

Thank you for participating in this call. Let me remind you again that a replay of the call will be available for 1 year on our website. If you have questions, you may call the contacts listed on today’s release. Financial analyst inquiries should be directed to me, Doug Fischer. Media should call Joe Muehlenkamp. Our contact numbers are on today’s news release. Again, thank you for your interest in Ameren and have a great day.