Warner L. Baxter - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead
Thanks Gary. I would now like to refer you to the slide presentation on our website as that provide a more detailed discussion of our first quarter 2008 earnings. Turning first to page 3 of our slide presentation, today we announced first quarter 2008 net income, in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, of $138 million or $0.66 per share. Including the first quarter 2007 GAAP net income of $123 million or $0.59 per share. Excluding certain items in each year, Ameren recorded first quarter 2008 core or non-GAAP net income of $134 million or $0.64 per share compared to first quarter 2007 core net income of $145 million or $0.70 per share. We had several non-core items in the first quarter of 2007 and 2008 that we have excluded from our discussion of core earnings. In first quarter of 2008, the cost of the 2007 Illinois comprehensive electric settlement reduced earnings by $0.03 per share; however, this was more than offset by net mark-to-market gains from non-qualifying hedges which benefited first quarter 2008 earnings by $0.05 per share. This is the first period in which we have eliminated mark-to-market gains or losses on non-qualifying hedges from our core earnings, because the amounts in the past have been immaterial. This quarter we recorded significant mark-to-market gains, principally on option contracts to hedge diesel fuel costs imbedded in our transportation contracts for coal we ship from the Powder River Basin. The sharp run-up in diesel fuel prices drove this gain in 2008. For comparative purposes we also carved out the net mark-to-market loss we had in the first quarter of 2007. This loss of $0.02 per share related primarily to energy swap transactions. Accumulatively, the current and prior year mark-to-market impact caused $0.07 per share favorable variance in year-over-year GAAP earnings. Other items which we excluded from core earnings include the impact of severe ice storms in the first quarter of 2007, which reduced earnings by $0.09 per share. In addition, a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission order retroactively adjusting prior year's regional transmission organization costs reduced first quarter 2007 earnings by $0.05 per share. Finally there was a benefit of $0.05 per share in the first quarter of 2007 for the reversal of a 2006 charge related to funding commitments, below income energy assistance energy efficiency programs. Again we've excluded all of these items from our core earnings comparisons. As Gary said earlier, our first quarter 2008 core earnings were consistent with our expectations. Core earnings in the first quarter of 2008 were below the same period in 2007, principally because of higher fuel prices, increased distribution system reliability spending and the impact of electric rate redesign in Illinois. The earnings impact of these unfavorable items was reduced by, among other things, improved generation levels, higher power sales prices, the impact of colder than normal weather on natural gas and power demand, and the benefit of the 2007 Missouri rate cases. The results of Missouri electric and gas rate cases added $0.06 per share to earnings in the first quarter compared to the year ago period. This includes the benefit of higher electric and gas rates as well as lower depreciation and decreased tax expenses pursuant to Missouri Public Service Commission electric and gas rate orders affective in June and April 2007, respectively. In late 2007, the agency [ph] authorized redesigned electric rates to reduce seasonal fluctuations for residential customers who use electricity to heat their homes. The affect of these redesign rates shifted $0.05 per share of earnings out of the first quarter of 2008. The new rates were also expected to shift earnings out of the fourth quarter of 2008. These earnings are expected to be recovered during the third quarter of 2008 with no impact on full year earnings. I should note the magnitude of this quarterly variances on earnings are lower than previously indicated, because the power cost associated with the rate redesign are being recorded as a regulatory asset. Other electric and gas margins increased $0.16 per share in the first quarter of 2008, primarily as a result of increased generation output and higher power sales prices. As Gary said earlier, our base-load generation was up 4%, as base-load plant capacity factors increased from 79% to 82% and hydro plant production was up 55% due to heavy rains. In addition, power prices were stronger in the first quarter of 2008 over 2007, but it [ph] was also a benefit in the first quarter of 2008, earning $0.03 per share over the prior year period and $0.02 per share compared to normal. Heating degree-days were 11% above 2007 and 6% above normal. As expected we experienced higher cost for fuel and related transportation which reduced first quarter 2008 earnings by $0.09 per share. Two-thirds of this was in our Missouri regulated operations, and about a third was in our non-rate regulated generation segment. Plant operations and maintenance costs increased $0.02 per share in the first quarter of 2008 compared to the year-ago period due to increased outage costs between periods. Distribution system reliability and maintenance expenditures reduced earnings by $0.06 per share in the first quarter 2008 compared to the year ago period, as we continue to make significant incremental investments to improve reliability and customer satisfaction. In addition we had several smaller storms that added to these costs in the current year quarter. Finally other labor and employee benefits, bad debt expenses, depreciation and amortization, other taxes and other expenses increased year-over-year and the quarter. Moving on to our 2008 guidance, and slide 4. As we stated in the our news release this morning, we reaffirm that we expect 2008 GAAP earnings to be in the range of $2.68 to $3.08 per share and core or non-GAAP earnings to be in the range of $2.80 to $3.20 per share. The $0.12 per share difference between GAAP and core earnings guidance is because of the estimated negative impact in 2008 on GAAP earnings of the 2007 comprehensive electric settlement agreement among parties in Illinois. We've also not assumed any net mark-to-market gains or losses in our guidance. Regarding specific items on the reconciliation of 2008 earnings guidance to 2007 actual earnings, we have increased expected margins to both realized and expected higher power prices. In addition, we also increased our estimate for depreciation and amortization expenses as well as financing costs. Financing costs are higher as a result the recent refinancing of our option rate debt. Since the beginning of the year, we have been very active in the capital markets as we've issued nearly $900 million of debt to refinance outstanding option rate securities and to repay short-term debt secured to fund out construction program. As you know early this year the auction rate securities market collapsed. We moved quickly to obtain the necessary regulatory approvals to refinance approximately $600 million of the $800 million auction rate that we had outstanding. I am pleased to report that our auction rate securities that had high default interest rates, in the event of an auction failure, have been successfully refinanced. The remaining $200 million of our auction rate securities have reasonable default interest rates. However, we will continue to monitor market conditions for these securities. We have also modestly revised the expected contribution to 2008 core earnings by Illinois regulated and non regulated generation business segments as shown on slide 5. We have lowered the range by $0.05 per share for the Illinois regulated segment. Primarily because of higher financing and bad debt costs and raised the non-rate regulated generation segment by the same amount, because of higher power prices. Ameren's consolidated and segment guidance for 2008 assumes normal weather and is subject to, among other things, regulatory decisions and legislative actions, plant operations, energy market and economic conditions, severe storms, unusual or otherwise unexpected gains or losses and other risks and uncertainties outlined or referred to in the forward-looking statements section of our press release. This concludes my prepared remarks and we will be happy now to take your questions. Question And Answer