Michael S. Geltzeiler
Analyst · Stifel
Thanks, Naren. As Naren mentioned, our second quarter results improved versus Q2 2013. We grew EBITDA, increased free cash flow and delivered better bottom line results. Although subscriber growth remains a challenge, I feel we are striking the right balance between customer adds and customer retention to return the business to net subscriber growth. We are also finding the right balance between investing in growth and streamlining installation, customer care and administrative activities to enhance profitability. This quarter, we continued to invest in our business organically and through M&A to strengthen our core and extend our leadership position, all while continuing to return capital to shareholders by shrinking our capitalization. Our balance sheet remains strong, as evidenced by our success this quarter in issuing $500 million of 5-year debt at a very competitive 4 1/8% interest. In summary, we remain encouraged that the fruits of these efforts will be more evident in the second half of fiscal 2014. Now let me go into more detail on our 5 valuation drivers, as well as the financials. Moving first to Slide 6. Customer gross adds were flat sequentially and remained a challenge in the second quarter. Gross adds in our direct channel declined slightly, due to an expanded rollout of our enhanced customer screening process, continued pressure on lead generation, as well as some negative impact related to the poor winter weather throughout the country. We're continuing to expand our lead generation activities, including a larger focus on self-generated leads, which improved about 10% on a per rep basis in our residential channel. In addition, we continue to divert some of our sales and installation resources to focus on Pulse upgrades for existing customers. Gross adds in our dealer channel were down compared to last year, excluding bulk purchases, driven primarily by a lower number of dealers. If you recall, in last year's second quarter, we had a 34,000-account bulk purchase, while this quarter, we bought about 2,500 accounts. Bulk account purchases are just one of the 4 ways we can require accounts. In the past, bulks were a greater part of our strategy to grow the business and supplemented production in both our dealer and direct channels. In today's environment, we believe bulks are a less attractive option for a variety of reasons, namely, many of the available accounts will at some point need to be upgraded to 3G and/or interactive services, and as a result, it may be more likely to attrit. Furthermore, these purchases do not come with a growth engine or potential synergies, as they would with a full company acquisition, which puts pressure on future net subscriber growth. Therefore, we will be more selective with bulks and continue to skew our focus towards acquisition and upgrading our existing customers. We continue to implement the dealer initiatives we outlined during the Investor Day, including taking actions to align dealer activities with our growth objectives. While sales in our dealer channel did grow 5% sequentially this quarter, the initiatives will take some time to have a more positive effect, and we expect they will contribute to better growth results later in the year. We've restructured our dealer organization under a new senior executive, and the team remains committed to return this channel to growth. The continued success of Pulse helped fuel ARPU growth for new and existing customers. In the quarter, new and resale ARPU was $46.08, an increase of 4.3% over the prior year. ARPU of our overall customer base, as of the end of the quarter, was $41.05, an increase of 3.2% year-over-year. Roughly 30% of the gain in average revenue per customer was due to the richer mix from new customer additions, including new Pulse sales. The remainder was from price escalations to existing customers. These gains were partially offset by the addition of Devcon customers, many of whom pay a lower rate as part of a homeowners association. But remember, these homeowner association accounts also have significantly lower attrition rates, and as a result, very attractive financial returns. Average ARPU growth was 3.8%, excluding the impact of the Devcon acquisition. The ARPU for new Pulse customers continues to be about 25% higher than non-Pulse accounts, providing a long-term tailwind for the company as our customers continue to adopt Pulse. Slide 7 shows account attrition calculated 2 ways: revenue attrition and unit attrition. Net revenue attrition, which is a stat we've been reporting since our spin from Tyco, was flat quarter sequentially for the first time since the spin at 14.2%. Revenue attrition remains above prior year levels. We're beginning to see evidence that the housing market has begun to stabilize, as relocation disconnects have been in decline for 2 straight quarters. We are aggressively implementing all the customer retention actions that we previously communicated, including tighter credit screening, enhanced resale efforts, improved non-pay procedures and pursuing Pulse upgrades. As we discussed, our strategy for 2014 is to focus on the levers we can control to stabilize attrition around year-end 2013 levels and eventually go lower. Also, on this slide, we're introducing unit attrition, which we believe is a more meaningful view of attrition and is more closely aligned to how we measure attrition internally. This metric measures unit attrition for our Residential and Small Business clients. Unlike the revenue attrition metric, for units, we're excluding health and contract monitoring unit attrition, as these businesses require no or considerably lower levels of SAC. Trailing 12-month unit attrition was 13.7% for the quarter, up 10 basis points versus Q1, and compares to 13% in Q2 prior year. Revenue attrition was implemented prior to the separation with Tyco, when ADT had large commercial accounts, and it made more sense to look at revenue lost versus units lost. On a go-forward basis, we'll be reporting both revenue and unit attrition in parallel, but will likely move to reporting solely the unit attrition metric beginning next fiscal year. This aligns us more closely with the rest of the industry. That said, unlike our competitors, we continue to count relocated customers who sign up for service in their new location, both as a disconnect and a gross addition, rather than as a contract [ph] attrition. Slide 8 details the recurring revenue margin on our existing customer base, with 66.6% for the quarter, up 60 basis points versus prior year, due to the operating leverage created from higher recurring revenue and the effects of our cost efficiency program. On a per-unit basis, cost to serve was up less than 1% to $13.37 per month versus prior year and was down sequentially, despite a higher percentage of our base with Pulse and the inclusion of Devcon. Net creation multiple for both the direct and dealer channels combined, excluding the net impact of Pulse upgrades, was up 13% versus last year. The year-over-year deterioration is related to the lower level of gross additions for the fixed cost components of SAC to be spread, as well as a lower percentage of installation cost recovery in terms of the upfront installation revenue recouped from the customer. This is typical as our customers move up the value chain towards home automation. Although we expect Pulse take rates to continue to increase, we expect creation multiples to decline to more normal levels over the course of this year, as direct production improves and the cost efficiency programs take effect, as evidenced by the 1% decrease in the net creation multiple on a quarter sequential basis. Specific examples of initiatives to reduce SAC include the optimization of paid search between ADT and our dealers, which was completed this quarter, and the launch of electronic contracts and the planned hardware efficiencies, which will go live in the second half. We remain committed to the cost efficiency program outlined during Investor Day, which calls for a 10% overall reduction in the cost to serve per subscriber by 2016, including $50 million reduction in G&A and a onetime reduction in net creation multiple by 2016. SAC improvements will accelerate once the Pulse take rates stabilize year-over-year. Turning to Slide 9 and our results for the quarter. Recurring revenue grew by 2.2% to $773 million and accounted for 92% of our total revenue. Recurring revenue was up 2.8%, excluding the impact of FX from a 9% decline in the Canadian dollar. Although the lower Canadian dollar is impacting current period revenues, we do feel it is opportunistic, given the timing of the Protectron acquisition. Total revenue was $837 million, up 1.9% over the second quarter of last year, or 2.4% at constant exchange rates. EBITDA was $431 million, up 5.4%, or $22 million, over prior year. EBITDA margin was 51.5%, an increase of 170 basis points year-over-year. While gross SAC P&L expenses were down over 5%, cost to serve remained relatively flat year-over-year. Growth in EBITDA was offset by higher D&A expenses of $23 million, primarily from the increase in investments in Pulse and home automation. In addition, we added $1.5 billion of debt since last year, which contributed to higher interest expense, but also contributed to a 16% reduction in diluted shares outstanding. EPS before special items was $0.49, up $0.08 to prior year and $0.06 sequentially. In Q2, our book tax rate before special items was 35%, and our cash tax rate was only 8.5%. Earnings per share before special items, using our cash tax rate, came in at $0.69 for the quarter, representing a 10% increase over the prior year period. Looking at special items for the quarter, consistent with our guidance, we incurred expenses related to the separation from Tyco and the cost associated with upgrading 2G radios, 2 of the must-do items on our priority list for 2014. These costs were $4 million and $6 million, respectively. We also incurred $9 million in merger, restructuring and other costs, as we begin to accelerate our cost efficiency program and sunset some of our legacy IT systems as we migrate our subscribers to the new platform. We also incurred a special noncash tax item related to a pending pre-spin 2005 to 2007 IRS audit adjustment that resulted in a $13 million charge to tax expense. This item reduced our NOL carryforward and was not a current period cash item. Special items totaled $26 million in the quarter versus a $12 million benefit last year, as last year's results included a $15 million benefit associated with the tax sharing agreement with Tyco. Turning to Slide 10, let me focus your attention on our free cash flow and steady-state free cash flow. Cash flow from operations was $422 million, a 5% increase from Q2 last year, despite paying higher incremental interest on our outstanding debt this quarter. This is primarily due to higher EBITDA and improvements in working capital related to the timing issues impacting Q1. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $304 million, with all but $21 million of that investment going towards new subscriber adds. This compares to $322 million of total CapEx in the second quarter of last year. Direct channel customer subscriber CapEx increased, reflecting higher Pulse penetration and greater volume of Pulse upgrades, whereas dealer channel CapEx declined due to the lower level of gross additions. Included in the dealer CapEx are bulk purchases, of which we spent $2 million this year versus $36 million last year. Factoring all of this, free cash flow before special items for the quarter was $121 million versus $91 million last year and $68 million in quarter 1. Despite the significant investments in acquiring new customers, this business generates strong cash flows. Our steady-state free cash flow for the quarter was $786 million versus $936 million in last year's second quarter and $787 million in the first quarter. This metric is heavily skewed by current quarter pre-SAC EBITDA, creation multiple and last 12 months' attrition. As we lower creation multiples and attrition in the second half, steady-state free cash flow will improve accordingly. Slide 11 addresses our capital allocation and debt levels for the quarter. In terms of optimizing the capital structure, we issued $500 million in debt during the quarter, increasing our leverage from 2.6x to 2.7x on a trailing EBITDA basis. We ended the quarter with $332 million of cash on the balance sheet. We expect to fund the Protectron acquisition later this summer with cash on hand and from our existing credit facility. Even with this transaction, we expect to be below our leverage target of 3x on a pro forma basis, enabling us to pursue a flexible, balanced capital allocation plan, including investing in organic growth, making acquisitions and returning capital to stakeholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. In terms of dividend growth, we paid out $37 million in dividends during the quarter versus $25 million in Q1 2014, reflected in the 60% increase to our quarterly dividend. We continue to make progress against the 3-year, $3 billion share buyback program. During the quarter and through April, we repurchased approximately 6.7 million shares for $200 million, in addition to completing the ASR, which reduced our share count by another 2.9 million. Although the diluted weighted average share count for the quarter was 183 million shares, we ended the quarter with an estimated 178 million shares outstanding after dilution, a reduction of 24% in the share count since inception of the program. In fiscal 2014, we've repurchased $1.35 billion in shares, at an average price of $38.49 per share. And there's approximately $400 million remaining on the share buyback authorization. Turning to Slide 12, I wanted to provide you a little more color on our second half expectations and full year guidance. Overall, for the first half of the year, we're running light on revenue growth. We've approached our EBITDA margin target for the year and we're running behind our steady-state free cash flow. Our guidance is always to assume some level of nontraditional growth through bulks or tuck-ins. Consolidating Protectron into our operations will impact our results and these metrics in the fourth quarter and for the year. For revenue, although we expect sequential improvement in the second half in both sales channels, the weakness to gross adds in the first half now places our recurring revenue and total revenue growth to be below our 4% guidance on a constant dollar, constant portfolio basis. Based on our current outlook, we're lowering our recurring revenue guidance for the year to a range of 3% to 4% on a constant dollar basis. This guidance assumes Protectron is fully in our results by the fourth quarter. Regarding EBITDA margins, we've nearly reached our margin target by the second quarter. With the continuing benefit of cost efficiencies offset by investments we are making in growth and innovation, we expect margins to remain at these levels next quarter. However, margins in Q4 will be lower once we begin to consolidate Protectron into our results. And as I stated earlier, steady-state free cash flow is highly dependent on current quarter EBITDA, creation multiple and last 12-month attrition. We are running behind on this goal, given the slow first half in customer adds, higher Pulse take rates and greater skews towards automation, which increased cash utilization in the near term for better returns in the future years, but do we do expect improvements in the third quarter. Protectron will add incremental steady-state free cash flow once consolidated. Given the distortion from the addition of this new business, we have provided on the bottom of Page 12 a set of guidance metrics on a standalone ADT for the second half of this year. On gross adds, we're expecting sequential improvement in the second half in both sales channels. Attrition percentage should improve in the second half as we continue to execute upon our churn initiatives. With continued cost efficiencies and solid ARPU results, we're expecting to lower the creation multiple for our direct channel. Recurring revenue growth on a constant dollar basis will be lower than the first half, related to the effects of slower subscriber traction earlier in the year, and we're expecting improvement in the second half for steady-state free cash flow. Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Naren.