Naren K. Gursahaney
Analyst · Oppenheimer
Ian A
Thanks, Craig. And good morning, everyone. Thank you, all, for joining us. Before I discuss our third fiscal quarter results, I wanted to provide a few important updates. First, we continue to make good progress in our search for a new CFO and we believe we are nearing the conclusion of this process. While I cannot share additional details at this time, I look forward to introducing you to our new CFO in the near future. Second, we've recently completed our first annual strategic planning process as a public company, and we feel very confident in our prospects and strategic plan going forward. I'll provide you with more details towards the end of the call. And we plan on sharing the full details of our strategy and associated capital plan at an ADT Investor Day in the fall that will roughly coincide with our 1-year anniversary as a public company. Third, we announced this morning our acquisition of Devcon Security from Golden Gate Capital for $148.5 million, which will be funded with cash. The acquisition includes over 117,000 quality-monitored accounts including residential, homeowners association and small-business customers, representing total recurring monthly revenue of $3.6 million. Devcon is a high-quality asset with an attractive customer base and strong financial and operating metrics. Now let's move on to our results for the third fiscal quarter. Overall, this was another solid quarter for us with a number of positive trends in our business. First, we're continuing to drive great results with ADT Pulse, with take rates increasing in all channels. We've also continued our efforts to market Pulse upgrades to existing customers, with ongoing positive results. The increase in Pulse take rates, greater upgrade activity and price escalations for base customers is fueling strong improvements in our average revenue per user. During the quarter, we also made significant progress against the $2 billion 3-year share buyback program we announced in November. To date, we've repurchased a total of 25.3 million shares for $1.15 billion, consistent with our commitment to front-load this year's repurchases. As of the end of the third fiscal quarter, we had 213 million shares outstanding. Now let's review some of our financial highlights for the quarter. Recurring revenue grew by 4.2% to $764 million and accounted for 92% of our total revenue. Total revenue was $833 million, up 2.3% over the third quarter of last year. As we've discussed before, total revenue growth continues to be impacted by the decision we made last year to shift our business mix towards having more ADT-owned systems. EBITDA during the quarter was $433 million, which was up 5.1% versus prior year, and EBITDA margin was 52%, which was up 140 basis points year-over-year. EPS before special items was $0.53 in the third quarter, up $0.09 versus the prior year, while GAAP EPS was $0.52, also up $0.09 versus the prior year. Included in our results is the impact of a true-up in the value of our deferred tax liabilities, representing a benefit of about $0.03 per share, as our mix of income by state is different than it was under Tyco which was the basis of our tax accruals throughout the year. Earnings per share using our cash tax rate came in at $0.80 for the quarter and represents 11% growth from the third quarter of 2012. Given the extended duration of our low cash tax rate, with single-digit rates expected through 2019, we'll continue to highlight cash EPS. As I mentioned earlier, our Pulse take rates continue to be a positive trend in the business. In our direct residential sales channel, our take rate was 38.5%, reflecting a 6-percentage-point improvement versus the prior quarter and an 18-percentage-point gain over the same quarter last year. In our small business sales channel, the Pulse take rate was just under 30%, up 5 percentage points sequentially and 19 percentage point compared to the third quarter of last year. We are continuing to customize our Pulse offering for small business owners by adding features such as commercial-grade cameras and a remote storage of video. As you recall, we formally launched Pulse in our dealer channel back in October. And during our fiscal third quarter, the Pulse take rate in this channel increased to nearly 15% from about 11% last quarter and virtually 0 in the third quarter of last year. In total, across all channels, almost 28% of our gross adds during the quarter were Pulse units, up from 23% last quarter and 10% in last year's third quarter. In addition to new Pulse sales, we upgraded over 11,000 existing customers to Pulse this quarter. This is over 2.5x the number we did in the same quarter last year. Our Pulse upgrade efforts result in higher ARPU and allow us to provide additional functionality to our existing customers. In addition, these upgrades allow us to enter into new contracts with these customers. We currently have over 420,000 Pulse customers, representing about 6.5% of our total customer base, so Pulse continues to represent a tremendous opportunity for us. We are continuing to invest to add new hardware and software capabilities to our Pulse offerings to ensure Pulse continues to be the best home security and automation solution in the industry. During the third quarter, we announced the addition of new indoor/outdoor cameras with motion sensor technology that triggers video recordings and other actions when motion is detected by these wireless cameras. In addition, customers can receive an instant alert with a video clip of the triggering event. During the third quarter, we made solid progress across several of our key value drivers. The continued success of Pulse helped fuel ARPU growth for new and existing customers. In the quarter, new and resale ARPU was $44.20, an increase of 3.9% over the prior year, while ARPU of our overall customer base as of the end of the quarter was $40.08, an increase of 4.5% year-over-year. The ARPU for new pulse customers continues to be about $50 per month, providing us with a good long-term growth tailwind. Recurring revenue margin on our existing customer base was 67.9% for the quarter, down 100 basis points versus prior year. Essentially all of this decline is due to dis-synergies associated with the split of our residential business from the commercial security business that remained with Tyco, as well as an increase in the costs associated with ADT becoming a standalone public company. On a quarter sequential basis, recurring revenue margin improved by 190 basis points primarily as a result of volume leverage and cost-reduction actions implemented during the quarter. Cost to serve in the third quarter included about $4 million of benefits, including supplier rebates, which we don't expect to repeat in the fourth quarter. As we noted in our press release this morning, our net attrition rates have been recast to properly reflect the treatment of certain resale customer accounts. There's no change to gross attrition, just a reduction in net attrition rates since we net resales against gross disconnects. This issue came to light as we began migrating accounts to our new IT platform. For your reference, we've recast net attrition going back to fiscal 2011 on Slide 14 in the slide deck appendix. On a recast basis, net attrition increased by 30 basis points sequentially to 13.8%, with the increase primarily attributable to the higher relocation disconnects as a result of the continued recovery in the housing market. On a positive note, the programs we've implemented focusing on reducing voluntary attrition are starting to gain traction and, in fact, drove an improvement quarter-over-quarter in this category. We also launched new programs such as enhanced screening of prospects aimed at reducing non-pay attrition. These efforts, in addition to ongoing investments in our loyalty desk and the proactive upgrading of customers to Pulse, should continue to benefit the controllable elements of attrition. Total gross additions declined year-over-year by 5.2% during the quarter primarily due to softness in the dealer channel. However, excluding the bulk -- the large bulk purchase we completed in our second fiscal quarter, our dealer channel production improved by 4.6% sequentially. In our direct sales channel, gross adds increased by about 5% year-over-year, aided by the recovery in the housing market and, specifically, our enhanced relocation program and partnerships we've established with a number of key homebuilders. Per-subscriber acquisition costs in our direct sales channel were up 12.8% on a trailing 12-month basis versus last year, reflecting ongoing success in selling Pulse to new residential customers and small-business customers, as well as costs related to Pulse upgrade for existing customers. We expect SAC to continue to grow as Pulse take rates improve further and as we continue to convert existing customers to Pulse. Keep in mind that Pulse customers come with a significantly higher ARPU than our traditional security customers. On a trailing 12-month basis, dealer channel SAC per customer was lower by 1.4% versus last year. This decrease was due to favorable dealer bulk pricing during the quarter as well as a pickup in volume from our smaller dealers. Turning to Slide 7, I'd like to walk through a bit more detail on our financial performance in the quarter. As I mentioned earlier, recurring revenue grew 4.2% year-over-year, driven primarily by the increase in average revenue per customer. About 60% of the gain in average revenue per customer was due to price escalations, with the remaining 40% due to the richer mix from new customer additions, including those who chose our Pulse service. Net account growth was relatively modest, as we were challenged by lower dealer channel production and the impact of increased attrition. Nonrecurring revenue, which includes the balance of the revenue categories you see on this Slide, was down 15% year-over-year due to the $15 million decline in install revenue as a result of the mix shift towards ADT-owned systems. Total revenue was $833 million for the quarter, up 2.3%. Turning to costs. Total operating expenses before items were $635 million, up 2.8%, as increases in cost to serve expenses, and depreciation and amortization were partially offset by a decline in the element of subscriber acquisition costs that run through the income statement. Cost-to-serve expenses increased by $17 million due to incremental corporate costs associated with the spend, dis-synergies from the split from Tyco and account growth. Depreciation and amortization expense increased by $23 million due to the increased penetration rates for higher-cost Pulse systems, as well as the mix shift to more ADT-owned systems. These higher operating costs were partially offset by $26 million of lower SAC expenses as a result of increased deferral of subscriber acquisition costs due to the mix towards ADT-owned systems. Details of our cost-to-serve expenses and subscriber acquisition costs can be found in the slide presentation appendix on Slides 12 and 13, respectively. EBITDA was $433 million this quarter, up 5.1%, and EBITDA margin was 52%, up 140 basis points versus the prior year. On a pre-SAC basis, EBITDA grew 2% to $528 million, with pre-SAC EBITDA margin at 67.3% for the quarter, 140 basis points lower than prior year. Margin compression was mainly driven by dis-synergies and corporate costs. On a quarter sequential basis, pre-SAC EBITDA margin improved by 170 basis points due to volume leverage and cost-reduction actions. On Slide #8, you can see, our clash -- our cash flow from operations increased $39 million or 9% to $461 million, driven by $21 million in EBITDA growth, a $16 million increase in deferred installation revenue from the mix shift towards ADT-owned systems and $17 million due to the timing of interest payments. This was partially offset by other working capital changes. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $308 million, with all but $20 million of that investment going towards new subscriber additions. This compares to $299 million of total CapEx in the third quarter of last year. Direct channel subscriber CapEx increased $54 million, reflecting growth in direct channel gross adds, higher Pulse penetration and the impact of Pulse upgrades, as well as $19 million attributable to the mix shift towards more ADT-owned systems. Dealer channel CapEx was lower than prior year by $33 million due primarily to the lower level of gross additions. Additionally, our maintenance CapEx was lower than prior year by $12 million due primarily to a reduction in activities related to the split with Tyco's commercial security. Our resulting free cash flow before special items was $165 million versus $132 million last year, up $33 million. On a year-to-date basis, free cash flow before special items was $416 million or $70 million higher than prior year. Turning to Slide #9. On a trailing 12-month basis ending Q3, unlevered steady-state free cash flow was $918 million, down $75 million versus last year's comparable period. The primary reason for the decline are the increase in direct SAC per unit driven by the higher Pulse take rates, as well as the increase in Pulse upgrades. In addition, higher attrition year-over-year contributes to the decline. Although we believe steady-state free cash flow is a useful metric to understand the underlying dynamics of our business, this metric does not fully reflect the benefit of moving to -- a larger proportion of our customer base to Pulse Systems, which constrains steady-state free cash flow in the near term but creates long-term value. Turning to Slide #10. We're updating our guidance for fiscal 2013. For recurring revenue growth, we are revising our full year range to between 4.5% and 4.8% based on the continued softness in dealer channel production. With respect to our EBITDA margins, given our strong third quarter performance, we're raising our target to approximately 51% for the full year. In terms of our effective tax rate, we are revising our expectations for the full year to between 35% and 36%. Regarding free cash flow, we now expect the full year to be between $450 million and $500 million, as CapEx in the dealer channel will likely come in below our original expectations for the year. In terms of steady-state free cash flow, we now expect the full year to be between $900 million and $950 million. This reduction is the result of better-than-expected Pulse take rates and Pulse upgrade activity throughout the year and the impact this has on steady-state free cash flow, which I mentioned in my commentary on our Q3 results. The share repurchases we have already completed as well as the expected dilution from prior equity grants will reduce our weighted average diluted shares outstanding from 219 million in the third quarter down to 213 million to 215 million range for the fourth quarter. We expect our full year diluted weighted average share count to be approximately 225 million. Before I open things up for Q&A, I wanted to provide some -- a further update on our recently completed annual strategic planning process, which was the first review with the new leadership team. We shared the outpour -- output of this process with our Board of Directors in our board meeting a couple of weeks ago. Management and the board are very well aligned with our priorities for the next 3 years, which include a balanced focus on improving the efficiency of our business operations, investing to accelerate organic growth in the market segments we serve and pursuing accretive acquisitions to complement our organic growth. We believe that optimizing our capital structure will help us achieve our strategic goals, and expect to target a leverage ratio over time of 3x debt-to-EBITDA. We expect to use proceeds from incremental leverage to pursue a flexible, balanced capital allocation plan on an ongoing basis, including investing in organic growth, completing acquisitions and returning capital to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. As I mentioned earlier, we plan to share details on our strategy and associated capital plan at an ADT Investor Day that we're scheduling for the fall once our new CFO is on-board and has had some time to settle in. We'll provide additional information on the venue and exact timing of this meeting as soon as we finalize the details. With that, we'll move to the Q&A period. In the absence of a CFO, I've asked Ken Porpora [ph], our Vice President of Finance Operations, to join us for the Q&A portion of the call. So if you hear a voice other than Craig's or mine, that will be Ken. With that, I'm going to ask Freida to provide the instructions for asking questions.