Earnings Labs

Adient plc (ADNT)

Q2 2019 Earnings Call· Tue, May 7, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome and thank you for standing by. At this time, all participants will be on a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session of today’s call. [Operator Instructions] Today’s call is being recorded and if you have any objections you may disconnect. I’d now like to introduce Mark Oswald. Sir, you may begin.

Mark Oswald

Analyst

Thank you, Robin. Good morning. And thank you for joining us as we review Adient’s Results for the Second Quarter of Fiscal Year 2019. The press release and presentation slides for our call today have been posted to the Investor section of our website at adient.com. This morning, I am joined by Doug DelGrosso, Adient’s President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeff Stafeil, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. On today’s call, Doug will provide an update of the business, followed by Jeff, who will review our Q2 financial results. After our prepared remarks, we will open the call to your questions. Before I turn the call over to Doug and Jeff, there are few items I’d like to cover. First, today’s conference call will include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on the environment as we see it today and therefore involve risks and uncertainties. I would caution you that our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements made on the call. Please refer to slide two of our presentation for our complete Safe Harbor statement. In addition to the financial results presented on a GAAP basis, we will be discussing non-GAAP information that we believe is useful in evaluating the company’s operating performance. Reconciliations to these non-GAAP measures to the closest GAAP equivalent can be found in the appendix of our full earnings release. This concludes my comments. I will now turn the call over to Doug. Doug?

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Thanks, Mark. And thanks to the investors, prospective investors and analysts joining the call this morning, spending time with us as we review our second quarter results. Turning to slide four, first just a few comments on recent developments, including certain of our key financial metrics, which are called out at the top of the slide. Although, our second quarter results are down year-over-year, the sequential improvement in the most recent quarter compared to our first quarter results demonstrated actions taken to improve the operating and financial performance are taking hold. Sales and adjusted EBITDA for the quarter totaled $4.2 billion and $191 million, respectively. Sales were in line with our internal expectation. Operational challenges within the Americas and Europe segments combined with significantly lower vehicle production in China were the primary contributors to the $171 million year-over-year decline in EBITDA. Adjusted earnings per share of the $0.31 in the most recent quarter at the lower level of operating profit dropped right to the bottomline. We ended the quarter with $491 million of cash at March 31st. Important to note, the adjusted results covered exclude certain charges that we view as one-time in nature or otherwise new trends in core operating performance of the company. A list of adjusting items can be found in the appendix. Outside of the financial results, other recent developments include the successful execution of our debt refinancing, which provide strong liquidity and flexibility to our capital structure, a key element to enable our turnaround efforts. Jeff will provide full details of our financial performance, including comments around our recent refinancing in just a few minutes. Adient Aerospace, our 50-50 joint venture with Boeing announced its first customer Hawaiian Airlines. The Ascent Seating System will be debut on the Hawaiian Airlines Dreamliner in 2021. We have…

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Great. Thanks, Doug. Good morning, everyone. And starting on slide 10 and before jumping into the numbers, I wanted to point out how the organizational changes Doug mentioned earlier impacted our reportable segments. As you know, prior to Q2, we reported our results between seating, SS&M and interiors. As we drove responsibility to the regions and transitioned away from heavily matrix organization, we were required to realign our reportable segments. The new segments, America, EMEA and Asia, and the composition of those segments are shown on the right-hand side the slide. The second quarter results shown today reflect the new segment structure. We realized the big part of Adient turnaround story related to our former SS&M segments. The performance for that business will be included within the results for the Americas, EMEA and Asia segments going forward, but for transparency purposes and to help demonstrate progress of the turnaround within that business, we plan to provide commentary and color within our new segment structure. In addition, within the appendix of our earnings presentation we plan to call out as a memo, SS&M results similar to what we disclosed in the path. Turning to slide 11, and adhering to our typical format, the pages formatted with our reported results in the left-hand side and our adjusted results in the right-hand side of the page. We will focus our commentary on the adjusted results. These adjusted numbers exclude various items that we view as either one-time in nature or otherwise skew important trends in the underlying performance. For the quarter the biggest drivers of the difference between our reported and adjusted results relate to asset impairment and restructuring. Specifically, the realignment of our reportable segments and past operating performance required us to tap SS&M’s long life assets for impairments. As a result…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question is from Colin Langan with UBS. Your line is open.

Gene Vladimirov

Analyst

Hey, guys. This is Gene Vladimirov on for Colin. Good morning.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Good morning.

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Good morning.

Gene Vladimirov

Analyst

When you think about getting margins in line with peers, can you sort of quantify how much of the opportunity as you see, it is operational versus what’s commercial. Just trying to get a sense of the magnitude of the margin improvements within the timeline that you laid out on slide eight?

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Yeah. I -- I mean, the way we have initially talked about, it’s one-third commercial, two-third operational. But when you think about operational and that’s why we try to provide a little bit more detail. It’s -- this third element that we anticipate taking time which is not just a function of addressing those issues, but there is a portion of the business, primarily on the SS&M side that is going to need to roll-off and in the replacement business will either be not the program, because we are downsizing that business for where we are much more selective on customers and products that we historically proven to be more profitable, had a return on investment. So it’s a -- how do you want to capture that, you can call that commercially, you can call that operational, it’s really both, it’s bringing products in line with the right pricing and launching them effectively.

Gene Vladimirov

Analyst

Got it. Okay. Very helpful. Thank you. And then could you breakdown the performance you saw in the JV’s, like what sort of decrementals are you seeing in the business and are you seeing any additional margin pressure beyond what would be expect given the sales line ?

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Yeah. So, good question, generally you can expect that the contribution margin of those businesses across all our business is roughly two times EBITDA margin or maybe even a little higher. So a 12% sort of margin reduction or I mean sales reduction in the region, you would expect something closer to25% percent decremental margins on a variable basis. But it requires us to really take out the necessary headcounts and flex the workforce as if you leave too many direct workers you are going to be worse than that. I would characterize the business having, which has never gone through a period like this, the last seven months and eight months in China are somewhat unprecedented at least for that duration and time and magnitude of a setback and the teams have performed very well. I’d say that they have taken out the variable cost. They have even managed to takeout portion to fix and have performed well. So I’d say the margins you see are really just a reflection of the sale. The margin reductions are purely a reflection of the sales reduction that we are seeing today.

Gene Vladimirov

Analyst

Great.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Maybe just a little bit more color regarding customers, I would characterize the market moving quickly, we are anticipating at some point that customers will come to us and that’s why we have revamped our activity in VA/VE to better support that. But you also have to think that we also have counter to that commercial claims for the volume drops and we run into contractual obligations, so what we have to manner plants for versus the rate that they are going to run their plants. So I think the smart suppliers just anticipate the environment they are operating in and we fully expect that we will try and be instrumental in finding solutions and not with our customers but not at the expense of margins in the business.

Gene Vladimirov

Analyst

Got it. Okay. Thank you. And then, finally, congratulations on the airline seating contract, how should we be thinking about when that actually begin to hit the P&L in a meaningful way?

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Yeah. I guess the way I think about that business is, it’s running, maybe couple factors, I think, about that. Is it -- it’s costing us around $30 million in EBITDA and roughly free cash flow, maybe just a little bit more than that free cash flow is a little bit of CapEx. But that’s probably what will run out the next couple of years or so, couple of few years as we develop that program and then develop few others. And but on that point roughly half of the free cash flows and earnings are being contributed or funded in cash, which is outside of our free cash flow or earnings through our partner Boeing. They are contributing half their share. So the real impact to us is less. I expect that to run the next couple of years, what you are looking at in the 2020, 2021 timeframe when revenues start to hit on this business.

Gene Vladimirov

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thanks for taking our questions.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Emmanuel Rosner

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, everybody.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Good morning.

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Good morning, Emmanuel.

Emmanuel Rosner

Analyst

I was hoping to see if you can give more color around the gradual pace of improvements you are expecting in the operational and in commercial actions. Obviously Q2 showed some traction, but I guess on the EBITDA basis is still, I guess, a modest sequential improvement. Is there potential for acceleration in the sequential improvement as we move through the year or are you essentially signaling that what we have seen in Q2 is sort of like the sustainable pace of improvement?

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Yeah. I think it’s reasonable and certainly our expectation that the sequential pace increases as we implement operational improvement and resolve kind of this backlog of commercial issue. We -- on the commercial side what we wanted to communicate is, we have broken this into waves, so the first wave with our commercial negotiations with our customer is, okay, to stop [inaudible]. We -- these needs to be addressed most immediately. We balance that. We are thinking about our long-term relationship with our customer and making sure that we are not creating a problem with our backlog and walking that fine line on the pace of change. So we expect in the out years more to come. I would say on the operational side we are expecting a pretty significant performance improvements first half to second half in the range of kind of $50 plus million across all the segments. But some of that is being offset with just comments on what we think might have been in Asia, so we haven’t completely modeled it, but at least gives you some idea of the pace of change. And that’s not on annualized basis, it’s calendarize [ph], so it -- if we get those and can sustain that operational improvement on a full year basis, you can get an idea of the magnitude.

Emmanuel Rosner

Analyst

Okay. That’s very helpful. And then, I guess, as part of your commercial negotiations it obviously seems like a lot of it is focused on a very -- solving some very near-term and pricing issues. Are you also having some discussion with customers around the profitability of the business that’s in your backlog? So things that you haven’t necessarily launched yet, but may come and launch it in a less than desirable profitability, is that something that is going on or that’s still needs to happen?

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Yeah. That’s -- we have really increased activity there and we have been very transparent with the customers too, with all of our major customers [inaudible] where we are performing below what we deem an acceptable level, we have gone in and walk them through the profitability of our business by region, by product, where their strength and where their weakness is and that’s what business today. In addition to that, and I think, this is critical when we talk about effective program management is having the conversation and projected profitability on a program prior to launch with the customer and how that compares with our initial expectation and we talked about this backlog of commercial issues and scope change that occurs we had some pretty successful conversations with customers around those issues. And in our focus as we move forward is to do that well in advance ideally a year before start of production. When you are making -- we are making firm commitments on capital spending, that’s when the discussion needs to happen, not after production started or in the midst of a launch in some of the issues we run into as we have struggled with our most recent launches, since we -- our timing over there the commercial discussions during the launch and if the launch went bad then our customers basically postponed any discussion and that’s where we have started to build this backlog of open commercial issues and we have been slowly but steadily working our way through.

Emmanuel Rosner

Analyst

That’s great color. Thank you.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

You are welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from John Murphy with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

John Murphy

Analyst

Good morning, guys. Just wanted to kind of focus on slide eight here, but I just want to clarify one thing that you just said. I think you were talking about a $50 million improvement by segments in the second half versus the first half. And I am just curious, I want to make sure if I heard that right. And by segment you mean, Americas, EMEA and Asia so the new segments meaning that you might have as much as $150 million performance improvement from…

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

That was consolidated across all segments.

John Murphy

Analyst

Got it. Okay. All right. So the -- okay -- so that’s -- so it’s all segments not per segment?

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Yeah. I’d like to be per segment, but it’s not.

John Murphy

Analyst

Got it. Okay. And then, if we look at slide eight here, I mean, you have three kind of distinct periods. And I know, Jeff, you kind of said the improvement would be a little bit more linear over time, but is that the case and when we think about 2023, depending on what you deem as your peers and how you load costs into operating margins, because some people disclosing overhead differently, I mean, where should the ultimate margins be when you talk about peer. I mean, you could argue it to be 6%, you could argue it to be 8%, depending on how you are loading the operating margins. So curious what that ultimate sort of peer average is in your mind and sort of -- are there sort of step function as we work through these three periods or is it really linear like Jeff mentioned?

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

So that the way that I would answer the last part of that I will let Doug answer the first part, but just as it relates to the benchmark, one of our key peers has the seating business broken out in segment. They do have corporate side segregated out. So we kind of just simply take that corporate piece allocated by sales forum use their seating segment and we compare that back to our numbers. I would say the -- and then what we do is we back out our equity income and to some degree we back out a little bit, we have always used like 50 extra basis points support costs, because our large network of JVs in China. We have always said requires a little bit more governance cost within our consolidated numbers for that. So roughly 50 basis points less than that competitor would be where we have the benchmark. And ideally, we will do better than that we will now there’s a lot of reasons why we think are our footprint, our size, our capability, our geographical graph, our customer diversity, et cetera, should play for higher margins over time. But that’s the bogie we are chasing, but we have tried to lay out on slide eight, our reasonable projection of getting there. One of the reasons is going to take a little while John to is you think about some of this business Doug talked about we are stabilizing it, meaning it’s not going to really get up to where we would have desired the margins to be if we started with a blank sheet of paper. But some of these programs are in such a our goal has been to get them, so they are no longer emerging, meaning that they are costing cash on an ongoing basis and that’s a lot of the commercial negotiations. And some of those, you can take our business turns over about 17%, 18% a year and some of that business will be required to be turned over before we can really get up to the levels of what we call our benchmark.

John Murphy

Analyst

And Jeff I am sorry to be a painting the neck on this, but I mean the math and sort of that you do there could you in a couple of places. I mean, is that basically 6.5% to 7%, is that where you are landing when you do that math, that you just talked about?

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

We have shown that benchmark before. I want to say we put it in the Deutsche Bank presentation that we gave in January where we thought that peer margin was. But I think a little higher than what you just said.

John Murphy

Analyst

Okay. And then sort of the…

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Obviously, if numbers move, that kind of the number we have been chasing, essentially that one competitor and the math I just described.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

And the only thing I would add to Jeff’s comment is, really the intention there was, look, this is the minimum out of the path forward because they have someone in our same peer group making and checking products to get somewhat similar profile to us can achieve that and there is no reason we can’t and no reason that I am aware from a structural barrier. And to Jeff’s point, I think, in many ways the structure of our business is preferable to anyone else in the space. I don’t know that it was necessarily intended to be, it all that can be achieved, not that I am going to give you a different number right now. I think about it in terms of, you that they have a viable target out there that people can see and give their head around. Obviously, the issues we have in front of us right now are much more damaging to the business that needs to be addressed more aggressively and that’s really where our focus is right now. And I think about it in terms of getting to different advantage point and that’s why we broke it into these three segments, stabilized the business, get ourselves on solid ground operationally and our customer relations, then you can take another assessment of the business and redefine where you can take it. So I think about it more -- maybe the minimum that we should expect to achieve from the business. It’s just a question how fast we can get there and right now we have laid that it’s going to take a number of years to do that.

John Murphy

Analyst

Okay. And maybe just a follow-up on this, I mean, the free cash flow improvement on SS&M $425 by, it looks like the end of 2022. Is that kind of a smooth improvement or is that -- is there -- are there sort of lumpiness there, because obviously that’s a massive swing factor in the free cash?

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Yeah. Maybe think of it this way John. We published the numbers for last year roughly a negative $170 million on EBITDA, $240-ish, $250-ish on CapEx. So we have said with the downsizing about SS&M with narrowing our focus of where we want to compete in that business and getting the mechanisms conversion that we have been straining on over the last couple of years to launch once that CapEx is all spent on the mechanism side and we have re-shifted some of the focus on SS&M business. We think that CapEx should come down to $150-ish, maybe a little bit lower. And at the same time the CapEx -- the EBITDA that means over that time period is going to have to go from that minus $172 million to at least the $150 million. We think both of those are going to be more gradual. Hopefully, we will go faster, but I would expect more gradual will obviously work to go as fast as we possibly can.

John Murphy

Analyst

Okay. And then if you look at slide five, it looks like two of the regional heads are relatively new to the company. I am just curious, Doug, as you go through the process of bringing in and letting human capital on folks like this. They are going to run the business is for you. I mean, what’s the process and how are you kind of making sort of -- hit -- be so blunt about this and fixed that close process with the human capital in the company. I mean I should understand how this is changing, that seems like that’s a big part of the story here too?

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Yeah. It is. So I would think it two ways. First, for us to pivot and move as quickly as we needed to move, I think we just needed to be a bit disrupted the way we are operating organizationally as a group and simplify the business and simplify or eliminate the level of bureaucracy that we had and really within region give general managed for resource availability to drive issues. Not -- we talk about it had a commercial issue, had a operational issue, many of the issues fall in the multiple categories and they effectively solve them. You need to work collectively across the team very much true on launches and I think the way we were structured before we were the so functional in the -- in our structure of that yet. It was a detriment to teamwork and that sounds maybe a little bit corning, but pretty powerful tool when you get it in place that you work on these issues as a cross-functional team, because it requires multiple disciplines to resolve the issue. So that’s really what we are trying to achieve here. It’s a simple kind of business, getting the issues and point people accountable, but with the full complement of resource to address it. As far as how do we brought -- the folks we brought in. These are -- it’s maybe the benefit of being in the industry for 35 years. These are individuals who I worked with in the case of Jerome and Michel, when I worked at TRW. So I spend 2008 to 2012 working with these guys in a pretty challenging environment. So we talked about being battle tested, having a broad skill set. They are not seating experts, but they worked and complicated products arguably more complicated than…

John Murphy

Analyst

And maybe if I could seek one last one in, operationally at your JV, I mean, how much oversight or impact can you have there, if that market continues to sort of be the tough? I mean, is there anything that you guys can interject as far as operation -- operational efficiency or is that sort of outside the purview of how the JVs are set up?

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

No. We can have influence on it. We can share best practice. James and his team has not been best full of talking. We have always had a constructive relationship with our JV and where we have good ideas they have good ideas we look to leverage that. So that’s something we have been encouraging because it’s in both our interest.

John Murphy

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

You have welcome.

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Thanks, John.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Joe?

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Joe?

Operator

Operator

One moment please. Sir your line is open.

Joe Spak

Analyst

Yeah. Can you hear me guys now?

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Yeah. Yeah.

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Hi, Joe.

Joe Spak

Analyst

Okay. Sorry. Just -- thanks for taking the question. Maybe focusing on some of the bridges like the plus 3 in Americas, the plus 1 in EMEA of pricing within that sort of net material margin, is that the correct interpretation, is that the efforts of the commercial renegotiations and is that sort of the right pace we should expect here for the rest of the year, does that start to improve in the back half?

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Well, I will hit just sort of a basic question. What you would expect usually on a lot of these is to have a negative pricing. We usually get productivity on a net basis to our customers. But fact that you are able to see some positives in Americas and EMEA, basically reflects the work that Doug has been talking about on going after some of these key programs that caused us challenges, because we are still giving productivity on a large number of our programs as we normally would as the business.

Joe Spak

Analyst

Okay.

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

But some these offsets brought those up to positive numbers.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Yeah. And I would say, secondly, we were reflective of either a full year or second half, most of the commercial activity we had was focused on implementation in the second half. But to Jeff’s point, the fact that we are net positive with productivity, contractual productivity commitments we have had with our customer and to a lesser degree inflationary material economics is a pretty good outcome as well. But as we feel forward you should expect to see those numbers increase on a year-over-year basis.

Joe Spak

Analyst

Okay.

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

Probably not going into the long future but for the near-term, I would say that the case.

Joe Spak

Analyst

Okay. And then -- and maybe just to sort of a tact this sort of improvement question from a different angle, when you sort of our reporting regionally, now it’s quite striking that Asia’s margins are basing the 10s and versus low-single digits in Americas and EMEA, and my guess is that maybe that was part of the point of reporting it this way. But how much of that is the challenges versus sort of just a structural difference between the regions. Just so we can get a sense for sort of what we are really aiming for here in those regions.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Some of its structural, I mean we have a very -- I will say dominant positions in the Asian market, so there is not the same competitive tension that exist in North America and Europe, and some of it is execution. The team has done very well operating their business, many of the problems that we have had in North America, in the Americas and Europe. We simply have not experienced their launch costs have been better managed, operating efficiencies are in place and that’s why we didn’t make, quite frankly, the organizational change there, because they continue to run that business well. Probably less exposure to the metal and mechanism business in that region, which certainly, because there have been changes to them, I think, their cash flow numbers are also much better because their capital spending is significantly less.

Jeff Stafeil

Analyst

And I think just -- if you look back a couple years, Joe, the Americas segment had double-digit margins. And the reason for that -- I mean it’s an area where we should be able to make a solid margin if we are doing things well. We have very the programs tend to be bigger in nature, things like the F-150 or the [inaudible] are key high volume programs where we should be able to extract a good margin if all things are working well. So I think there’s -- I would characterize it more as there is a greater amount of opportunity for all the self-help to come into the regions in Americas, I think, is probably the biggest area of opportunity for us.

Joe Spak

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Doug DelGrosso

Analyst

Thanks, Joe. And Robin, it looks like we are at the about the hour. So, this will conclude the call today. Again, thank you everybody for joining us and if you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to reach out to myself or Investor today. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And thank you. This does conclude today’s conference call. You may disconnect your lines and thank you for your participation.