Peter Kraus
Analyst · Citigroup. Your line is open
Good morning, everyone and thanks for joining our call this morning. By now, you have heard about the challenges that all asset managers faced in 2016. We were certainly affected as well. Let's go through the numbers though beginning with the firmwide overview on slide 3. While total gross sales of $73 billion were down 3% in 2016, momentum picked up in the second half and gross sales of $39.2 billion increased 16% sequentially. Full-year 2016 net flows of negative $9.8 billion include the two lumpy redemptions we reported in the third quarter, a $7.6 billion redemption of a portfolio of alternative assets that we had been managing for a large institutional client at a low fee and a $6.7 billion outflow resulting from the conclusion of our Rhode Island college-bound 529 relationship. Excluding these two flows, annual net flows would have been a positive $4.5 billion. Fourth quarter net flows of negative $100 million improved year-on-year from negative $2.5 billion. Full-year average AUM was essentially flat, though fourth quarter average AUM was up 2.5% year-on-year. As we reported last week, January AUM increased 2% from December to $489 billion on market appreciation, net flows to institutions, slight net flows to retail, partially offset by private wealth net outflows. Now let's dive into the quarterly flows which you can see on slide 4. Institutional gross sales of $6.7 billion for the quarter were our highest since the second quarter of 2015, mostly due to higher-than-average fundings and passthrough activity. Net flows of $1.8 billion returned to positive territory in the quarter. Retail gross sales of $10.3 billion were up 27% year-on-year, but down 16% sequentially and net flows were negative $1.5 billion. In private wealth, net flows were negative $400 million, in part due to increased post-election charitable giving at year-end which was ahead of potential personal tax rate changes. Moving to slide 5, that shows the channel-specific impact of the third quarter's lumpy outflows for the year. Institutional would have been $2.2 billion net positive were it not for the one large alternatives portfolio redemption. In retail, the $6.3 billion 529 plan outflow took annual net flows from positive $1.5 billion to negative $4.8 billion and the $400 million 529 plan outflow from private wealth cut our annual net inflow number in half. We can't predict single large client redemptions or sales, but we can control our investment performance which, of course, drives flows. Slide 6 shows our strength in global fixed income. We attracted $9.7 billion in total fixed income net inflows in 2016, including $5.7 billion to taxable and $3.3 billion to tax-exempt as our fixed income services continued to perform exceptionally well. As you can see from the left side of this slide, our percentage of assets in outperforming services ranges from 81% to 89% across time periods and we stack up well relative to peers. Global Aggregate, Global Plus, Global Fixed Income all ranked top decile for the three year and European Income and European high-yield ranked top decile for the one year. Like many other managers, our equity performance was challenged in 2016. Now I have moved to slide 7. While our percentage of outperforming active equity assets for the one-year period declined significantly, our long term track records remain strong. 80% of outperforming equity assets for the three-year period is a multiyear high for us and our five-year number is very respectable at 64%. Top decile and quartile services across multiple time periods include concentrated growth, global core, U.S. mid-cap value, U.S. large cap and emerging markets growth and strategic core. We see these relative rankings as a positive leading indicator for flows. Now let's talk about our client channels beginning with institutional which is on slide 8. This slide demonstrates the diversity of our sales and pipeline activity in 2016. Fourth quarter gross sales increased year-on-year in the Americas and in EMEA. Sequentially, they were up in the Americas, EMEA and Asia. Fourth quarter pipeline fundings were 86% above our trailing five quarter average which largely drove our 56% year-on-year sales increase. The left side pies show our pipeline at the end of 2016 versus the end of 2015. Equity mandates representing $765 million in assets were four of our top six pipeline adds during the quarter and our year-end active pipeline shows a much more even split versus 2015. By region, Asia grew from 22% to 39% and was the largest slice of our active pipeline at the end of 2016. We also made progress in the new growth areas we've been pursuing. Our third quarter acquisition of Ramius Alternative Solutions added new capabilities in custom, factor-based and alternative risk premia solutions. We also funded our first target date multi-manager CIT mandate in 2016 and we're doing what we set out to do in our institutional business -- diversifying, globalizing and broadening our offering in a way that resonates with clients. Now let's move to slide 9 and that's retail. Retail gross sales of $41 billion in 2016 were up 15% and our fourth year of $40 billion plus sales out of the past five. Our momentum was driven largely by the resurgence of Asia ex-Japan retail fixed income. As the top left chart illustrates, industry-wide regional gross sales of $46.2 billion last year were up 68% from 2015. Industry sales in the areas where we compete, U.S. dollar and global high-yield bond rose by 186% and 25% respectively. Our sales in the region were up 40% in 2016 and combined sales of our flagship global high yield and American income portfolios increased by 85%. We're also seeing our investment in innovative new products begin to pay off. Now that these funds have had time to season, they are performing quite well. As you can see in the bottom left chart, our number of four and five-star rated U.S. and Lux funds tripled between 2011 and 2016 to 56 today and of the funds that we added between 2009 and 2013 that are still open, 81% are four and five-star-rated today. One of our newer services, high-income muni, was ranked top 10 in its U.S. fund category by net flows in 2016. It joins legacy products like number one-ranked AB Global Bond and in Lux, number one-ranked American Income and number two-ranked, Global High Yield. Of course, everyone is wondering how fixed income will fare as U.S. rates rise. The bottom right chart shows how quickly bonds recovered from the Fed rate hike in the mid-2000s and in the 2013 taper tantrum. When rates are rising in a strong economy, equities typically perform better and high-yield portfolios tend to behave more like stocks than bonds and we don't see investors' demand for yield diminishing anytime soon. So we feel good about how we're positioned in both fixed income and in equities today. Now let's take a look at private wealth management which is on slide 10. This business had it best overall flow picture in 2016 since the financial crisis. Gross sales of $10.2 billion increased for the fourth straight year. That's the top left chart. Advisor gross production was the highest since 2008 and with client retention still near all-time highs, net flows were the best since 2007. We have this momentum because we're offering clients what they need most -- solid advice, stable performance and relevant offerings. We also have a motivated team of senior advisors on the ground. Our retention rate among principals was an impressive 99% in 2016. As you can see from the chart at the bottom left, it's averaged 98% for the past four years versus 88% for the for before that. Advisors are energized by how we have evolved our private wealth offering to fully meet client goals and preferences. A perfect example is our new series of research-based targeted services. Last year, private clients committed $1.3 billion to targeted services. More than half went to two new offerings -- Energy Opportunities which we closed at capacity with $435 million in committed assets and Global Research Insights which raised $400 million. Targeted services clearly contributed to our 33% growth in the average size of new client relationships in 2016 and the 13% rise in average production per advisor. Private clients want both institutional quality portfolio and risk management and access to unique investment opportunities. We offer both today and have satisfied clients and more of them because of it. I will finish with our business highlights with the sell side. That's on slide 11. U.S. composite volumes spiked in November following the surprise outcome of the U.S. Presidential election. You can see the sharp move in the top right bar. As a result, fourth quarter Bernstein research revenues rose both sequentially and year-on-year. We did still finish down 3% for the full year, however; those are the top left bars. Considering that global equity commissions declined an estimated 10% in 2016 however, we actually fared quite well and gained share across our regions. We attribute our relative strength to Bernstein's differentiated global research and our trading capabilities. Extending our global research platform has allowed us to leverage our expertise across regions, better serve clients and compete with firms much larger than us. We've grown our base of publishing analysts by 15% since 2012, primarily in Asia and in Europe. As you can see in the bottom left chart, our total non-U.S. publishing analysts and stocks under coverage now well exceed those in the U.S. Plus, we've taken our global marketshare to a record high with increases in client votes everywhere that we operate. Our growing regional research presence is being recognized. In the most recent European institutional investor survey, we delivered our best results ever, ranked number seven overall with 13 top three-ranked teams and three runner ups. In trading, our unique electronic capabilities enable us to grow in difficult times. We utilize 18 different dark pools and are cost-agnostic in our approach which allows us to access more liquidity for our clients and we're not exposed to high-frequency traders. In 2016, we increased our U.S. low touch trading revenues by double digits and one major independent industry survey has ranked Bernstein number one for both electronic trading quality and electronic trading service for the past two years. Even in a changing regulatory environment, we have good reason to believe our clients will continue to choose Bernstein. MiFID II has given us the opportunity to engage constructively with our clients on the Bernstein difference. They know that we're not afraid to change service models where we have to and are committed to getting the appropriate value for our research. So we feel even more confident today that we will have a position at the table no matter what happens. Now I will close with a recap of progress on our strategy. That's on slide 12. In a challenging year, kept our heads down and we executed. We delivered for clients with our long term fixed income and equity track records. We broadened our business by asset class and geography in every client channel. We continue to innovate in areas like target date multi-manager, custom alternative solutions, private credit and private wealth-targeted services and we delivered our fifth straight year of margin expansion for our shareholders. Times are always uncertain and we don't know what the future holds, but I do know that AB has the right strategy, talent and capabilities to keep our clients ahead of tomorrow in any market environment. That's where we've been focused for 50 years and where we will stay focused in the years to come. John, over to you.