Bob Barton
Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open
Last night we reported third-quarter 2017 FFO of $0.524 per share. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $0.19 per share for the third quarter. Our retail portfolio ended the quarter at 97% leased combined with the highest annualized base rents amongst our peers. On a year-over-year basis our retail occupancy of 97% was the same as reported in the third quarter of 2016, leaving roughly 99,000 square feet vacant in our approximately 3.3 million square foot retail portfolio. During the trailing four quarters 71 retail leases were signed representing approximately 310,000 square feet or 9% of our total retail portfolio. Of these leases signed, 62 leases consisting of approximately 293,000 square feet were for spaces previously leased. On a comparable basis the annual cash basis rent decreased approximately 7.6% over the prior leases. This roll down relates primarily to the 155,000 square feet Lowe's renewal in the second quarter at Waikele Center. As you may recall, Waikele Center is a 537,000 square foot high quality dominant retail destination located in Waipahu within the fast growing area of West Oahu, Hawaii. It is approximately 10 minutes from the Honolulu airport. It is a strategic location fronting Simon Premium Outlets and enjoying a half a mile of frontage along the north side of the Interstate H1, which provides excellent visibility as well as immediate access to major vehicular arteries. This center was developed in 1993 and we acquired it in 2004 and have experienced very strong same-store growth for the past 12-plus years. As the major leases like Lowe's and others that have or will come up for renewal in the current marketplace, several of such tenants' in place rents have brands such that they are above the current marketplace. Once they are reset to market we expect to see same-store growth at the center once again. Our office portfolio ended the quarter at approximately 89.9% leased. On a year-over-year basis our office occupancy of 89.9% was the same as reported in the third quarter of 2016. Approximately half of that vacancy relates to Oregon Square which is still in operations until we finalize the path forward in the current marketplace. As you may recall, Oregon Square consists of four city blocks adjacent to the State of Oregon building and has the designation of a superblock within the Lloyd District of Portland, Oregon. And carries with it a minimum of 12:1 FAR with flexibility on the type of product that can be developed. Approximately a year and a half ago, we deliberately began non-renewing the operating leases as they expired so we could be in the position of moving forward quickly if we could match the right product in the current marketplace with the right tenant and economics that are accretive to our shareholders. We continue to evaluate the possibilities and believe that eventually we will create long-term value that will be accretive to our shareholders. During the trailing four quarters, 67 new leases were signed representing approximately 466,000 square feet or 17% of our office portfolio. Of these leases signed during the year, 47 leases consisting of approximately 353,000 square feet were for spaces previously leased. On a comparable basis the annual cash basis rent increased 16.4% over the prior leases. Let's talk about same-store cash NOI for a moment. Same-store retail cash NOI remained relatively flat in the third quarter and consistent with our initial 2017 guidance for our same-store retail, which is primarily due to the vacant Sports Authority space at our Waikele Shopping Center. Same store office NOI remained relatively flat as well, increasing 1.7% in the third quarter, primarily due to the rent abatement we received in Q3 2016 on our rent expense for the six story building known as The Annex adjacent to The Landmark building in San Francisco that we lease from Paramount pursuant to a long-term master lease. So, in Q3 2017 we paid the lease rent expense for The Annex of approximately $600,000 and in Q3 2016 it was fully abated. On a comparable basis, if you add back the rent expense for the prior year, you will see that we had strong same-store office cash NOI which would have been approximately 5% for the current quarter. Same-store multi-family NOI consisting of our San Diego multi-family property, except for the newly acquired Pacific Ridge, was up 6.6% on a cash basis for the third quarter. Higher year-over-year rents is the main driver of the same-store growth for the multi-family portfolio. We continue to be pleased with the execution and direction of our multi-family portfolio. Waikiki Beach Walk, our mixed-use property consisting of the Embassy Suites Hotel and Waikiki Beach Walk retail, reported a combined decrease in same-store cash NOI of approximately 8.1% for the third quarter, or approximately $617,000. Approximately 70% of that relates to the Embassy Suites Hotel as a result of a lower ADR by approximately $16 and a lower RevPAR by approximately $11, in large part due to the changes in the Japanese wholesale market. Said another way, we are currently operating at a higher occupancy with a lower ADR. The remaining portion that relates to Waikiki Beach Walk retail relates primarily to one or two lease expirations that occurred in the first quarter of 2017 and we are in the process of re-leasing those spaces. Tenant sales at WBW retail were at approximately $1,119 per square foot for the rolling 12 months as our tenants continue to benefit from the excellent location and good economy. Turning to our third-quarter results, FFO increased approximately $1.9 million or $0.03 to $0.524 per FFO share compared to the second quarter and primarily relate to the following activity. Number one, the Embassy suites at Waikiki Beach walk in Hawaii increased approximately $0.016 of FFO due to the seasonality over the summer months. Number two, interest expense increased as a result of the new unsecured debt in Q3 and Q2 resulting in a reduction of FFO per share of approximately $0.019. Number three, straight-line rent increased approximately $0.015 of FFO per share as a result of new leases signed at City Center Bellevue, Waikiki Beach walk retail and lease renewals at The Landmark in San Francisco. And number four, acquisition of Gateway Marketplace contributed approximately $0.01 of FFO per share. Now as we look at our balance sheet and liquidity at the end of the third quarter we had approximately $344 million in liquidity comprised of $94 million of cash and cash equivalents and $250 million of availability on our line of credit. Our leverage at the end of the third quarter remains low at 34.2% on a total debt to total capitalization basis and a net debt to EBITDA of 6.4 times; although our focus is to get our net debt to EBITDA back down to 5.5 times or below. Our interest coverage and fixed charge coverage ratio ended the quarter at 3.6 times. We have tightened our 2017 guidance range and are introducing our initial 2018 guidance. Let's talk about 2017 guidance first. We are tightening our 2017 guidance and lowering the bottom end of the range by $0.01 for our full-year 2017 FFO per share to a range of $1.99 to $2.01 with a revised midpoint of $2 per FFO share, which was at the low end of our previous guidance. We are lowering the bottom end of our range due to a more conservative outlook on the Pacific Ridge acquisition as we incurred higher-than-expected transition costs during Q3 to bring it up to AAT standards. Long-term this will be a great asset for purposes of providing guidance -- long-term this will be a great asset, but for purposes of providing guidance we thought it would be best to adjust the range accordingly. We are reducing the upper end of the 2017 guidance range primarily because of straight-line rents on lease renewals at City Center Bellevue, Torrey Plaza and Torrey Point did not materialize as we had anticipated at the beginning of 2017. For example, at Torrey Plaza where we are located, we had hoped that the renovation that is currently undergoing would have been completed by the end of August, which is now estimated to be closer to the end of 2017 -- which has been primarily due to the extended time required to get permits processed on this project in San Diego. At Torrey Point we had initially thought that we would have completed construction by the end of the first quarter in 2017 and it got pushed out due to the unprecedented rains and additional time required for the city of San Diego to sign off on final construction. Construction is not a perfect science, yet the long-term value that is being created will be accretive to our shareholders. This is more about the timing of the cash flows than anything else. Based on the projected FFO per share midpoint of $2, we will have grown the FFO by approximately 8.1% over the 2016 FFO per share of $1.85. Now let's talk about the 2018 guidance. We are introducing our 2018 FFO guidance range of $2.01 to $2.09 per FFO share with a midpoint of $2.05 per share, which is approximately a 2.5% to 3% increase in FFO over the 2017 midpoint. While our 2018 guidance produces less than a stellar growth in our FFO as compared with prior years, it does reflect our commitment to reinvest in our high-quality portfolio no matter what cycle we may be in. Our focus continues to be in NAV creation for our shareholders and the production of consistent predictable cash flow with increasing dividends. Let me walk you through what makes up our 2018 guidance. Number one, same-store retail cash NOI is expected to increase 3.15% and add $0.028 of FFO. We expect the same-store retail portfolio to end the 2018 year at 97% occupancy. Waikele Shopping Center is being taken out of the same-store retail portfolio effective January 1, 2018 due to the significant redevelopment that will be taking place. Number two, same store office cash NOI is expected to be relatively flat for guidance purposes and reflects five floors at City Center Bellevue, two of which have expired October 31 this week, and three remaining floors that are expiring on December 31, 2017. For guidance purposes we have left all five of these floors vacant for 2018 assuming it takes a minimum of four months to find a tenant and get a lease signed and six months to build it out. Hopefully we are able to lease these floors out sooner versus later as we are in active discussions with several prospective tenants. The loss of revenue from these five floors for all of 2018 is approximately $4.6 million. We believe the in-place rents are approximately 10% or more below market. The rest of the office portfolio is performing strong. Absent these five floors at City Center Bellevue that we are leaving vacant in our guidance until leased, our same-store office cash NOI would've been 8% for 2018. We expect the same-store office portfolio to end the 2018 year and 94.7% occupancy. Number three, same-store multi-family cash NOI is expected to increase 3.45% and add $0.01 to FFO. We expect the same-store multi-family portfolio to end the 2018 year at 95.8% occupancy. Number four, same-store mixed-use cash NOI is expected to increase 2.8% and add $0.01 to FFO. We expect the same-store mixed-use portfolio to end the 2018 year at 93.4% occupancy. Number five, let's talk about non-same-store guidance, which includes, A, Waikele shopping center, which is expected to reduce FFO by approximately $3.4 million or $0.053 with the expiration of Kmart on June 30, 2018, reflecting six months of no rent for the remainder of 2018; B, Gateway Marketplace that was acquired early in the third quarter is expected to increase FFO by approximately $1.2 million or $0.019; C, Pacific Ridge apartment community that was acquired in the second quarter is expected to increase FFO by approximately $3 million or $0.047; D, Torrey Point development in San Diego which is now 35% leased with rent commencing March 1, 2018 is expected to increase FFO by approximately $1 million or $0.016. For Torrey Point we assumed that we would be 93% leased and stabilized by October of 2018. Hopefully it is much sooner than that as we continue to actively tour prospective tenants through the new development. Number six, G&A is expected to increase approximately $900,000 to $21 million and reduce FFO by approximately $0.015 per FFO share. Number seven, interest expense is expected to increase approximately $340,000 and reduce FFO by approximately $0.005 per FFO share. Lots of moving parts and interest expense, but from a high-level perspective it reflects a reduction of $6.2 million in interest expense relating to the secured CMBS notes that were repaid in 2017 combined with the reduction in debt amortization of the fair value market adjustments on secured debt that was repaid in 2017. This is offset with an increase of $6.8 million in interest expense relating to the new unsecured private placement debt that was issued during 2017 combined with the increase in interest expense related to the reduction in capitalized interest in 2018. Number eight, net effect of straight-line rents is expected to increase FFO by approximately $400,000 or approximately $0.005 per FFO share. This could increase if office leasing exceeds our guidance expectations at City Center Bellevue and Torrey Point. Number 9, amortization of net above and below market rents is expected to reduce FFO by approximately $400,000 or approximately $0.005 of FFO per share. These adjustments would approximately reconcile our 2017 midpoint guidance with our 2018 midpoint guidance. When I compare our 2018 midpoint guidance to the 2018 full-year consensus that I see in my Bloomberg screen of approximately $2.21 per FFO share, we are different by approximately $0.16 or approximately $10.3 million of FFO at the midpoint. Below is a summary of the items that I believe are the timing differences in the cash flows between the two estimates due to delays in development, redevelopment projects and lease ups that may help to reconcile the difference. Number one, Torrey Point San Diego. The remaining 51,700 square feet of office space available per lease, which brings us to a 93% occupancy, is expected to produce an additional $0.036 of FFO based on the current market dynamics. Our guidance factors this remaining lease up by October 2018 and at full year in 2019. I believe Bloomberg's consensus reflects this as being leased up as of the end of 2017. Number two, Torrey Plaza San Diego where we are currently located. The remaining 70,000 square feet will be available once the redevelopment is completed in December of 2017. Assuming the space is leased at 375 per square foot on a modified gross net of utilities basis, the remaining lease up is expected to produce an additional $0.036 of FFO per share. Our guidance factors this remaining lease up by October 2018 and a full year in 2019. I believe Bloomberg's consensus reflects this as being leased up as of the end of 2017. Number three, City Center Bellevue Washington. As previously mentioned, there will be five floors of approximately 91,000 square feet of office space that will be vacated between now and year end. Assuming a market rate of $42 per square foot full-service gross, the re-leasing of these five floors is expected to produce an additional $0.042 of FFO per share. None of the space is forecasted to be occupied in our 2018 model. I believe Bloomberg's consensus is not factored in the vacancy of these floors. Number four, Waikele Shopping Center, the former Sports Authority space. As we mentioned in the past, we have entered into a letter of intent with a national grocer to lease the space. The delays have been tied to the time required for the national grocer to determine the most optimal configuration for their proposed space. We are hopeful that a lease will be executed in the coming months. Once this lease is executed it will take approximately 12 months between working drawings, permits and construction to complete. This is also dependent upon the final configuration of the space. Best case we could have it delivered in the first quarter of 2019 and worst-case would be several quarters beyond that. We believe ultimately it will add approximately $0.017 of FFO. The Waikele Shopping Center, the former Kmart space, our redevelopment plans are ongoing and we continue to evaluate the best ideas that will revitalize the shopping center with the right tenant mix. No leases have been signed, but our best information at this time is that we expect this redevelopment would add approximately $0.037 of FFO when completed. As leases get signed we will update you on our expectations. As to the timing, without any leases currently signed our best guestimate is that we could lease or redevelop the space for delivery by the beginning of Q3 2020. Number 6, Hassalo on Eighth, Portland, Oregon. We completed the 657 unit award-winning multi-family development late in 2016 as rent growth was slowing and new supply was coming on. We believe we are still approximately at least $0.015 per FFO below what our expectation was going into the development. The strategy was right; however, after eight years of positive rent growth from 6% to 10% annually, it came to a stop late in 2016 and into 2017. Long-term the project will do well and create value for our shareholders. Our occupancy is keeping steady around 93%. We see it as a timing issue until current supply is absorbed and the Lloyd District continues to evolve into a thriving community. We believe these reconciling items explain the differences in expectations between our 2018 guidance and consensus on Bloomberg. Lastly our operational capital expenditures are budgeted to be approximately $31 million to $35 million in 2018. We will continue to do our best to be as transparent as possible and share with you our analysis interpretations on our quarterly numbers. We are well prepared with an even stronger balance sheet than in prior years to capitalize and execute on the opportunities that we believe will present themselves over the coming quarters. Operator, I will now turn the call over to you for questions.