Michael A. Norona
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thanks, George, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start by thanking all of our talented team members for their continued efforts to improve our business and serve our customers as we navigated through our second quarter. I plan to cover the following topics with you this morning: 1, provide some financial highlights from our second quarter of 2013; 2, put our second quarter results into context with our expectations and key financial dimensions we use to measure our performance; and 3, provide some insights on the remainder of 2013. As we shared on our first quarter earnings call, we were encouraged with the strong start we had to our second quarter, and we were somewhat tempered with our sales expectations. Looking forward, as we were unclear of how much of our strong start was the result of a bounceback from the delayed spring versus a fundamental rebound in consumer demand. We are not satisfied with our second quarter comp sales performance, which softened in the final 6 weeks of the quarter after tracking up 2% in the first 6 weeks. We believe this softness was the result of record levels of precipitation in our core markets and a continued challenging macroeconomic environment on our consumer, such as increased payroll taxes. While we are disappointed with negative comps sales, our operating profits grew 15.1% versus second quarter last year and exceeded expectations, driven by both an increase in gross profit rate and disciplined expense management, which led to a 98 basis point increase in our operating income rate of 12.6% for the quarter as we work towards our longer-term operating margin goal of 12%. We remain focused on influencing the things that are in our direct control and positioning our company for longer-term growth and profitability by maintaining our strategic focus, executing on the fundamentals and simplifying our operations. While we are pleased with our bottom line results during the quarter, we realize, in order to achieve our 12% goal, we must improve our sales performance while continuing the disciplined spending we've exhibited over the last 2 quarters. As a result of the weaker consumer demand and record levels of precipitation throughout the majority of the eastern half of the United States, our comp store sales decreased 0.3%. Our total sales, however, increased 6.1% to $1.5 billion, driven by the acquisition of BWP and the net addition of 175 new stores over the past 12 months. Our comp store sales decrease was driven by declines in our DIY sales, partially offset by positive growth in Commercial sales. Year-to-date, our total sales increased 4.3% to $3.6 billion, and our comp store sales declined 2%. Our gross profit rate in the second quarter was 50.3% versus 49.9% in the second quarter of 2012 or an increase of 40 basis points. The increase was primarily due to higher merchandising margins, driven by lower product acquisition costs and a favorable product mix, partially offset by planned increases in supply chain costs associated with the operation of our new Remington DC and the impact of BWP sales, which have a lower gross margin rate due to their higher mix of Commercial sales. Year-to-date, our gross profit rate increased 30 -- 13 basis points to 50.1% from 50% over the same time period last year. Our SG&A rate of 37.7% decreased 58 basis points versus the second quarter of 2012, primarily driven by the timing of last year's company-wide leadership meeting, lower marketing expense, improved labor productivity and a decrease in credit card fees as a result of the insourcing of our commercial credit program. These were partially offset by higher incentive compensation due to individual store team member performance and operating income growth, fixed cost deleverage as a result of our negative comparable store sales and increased new store openings. Year-to-date, our SG&A rate increased 46 basis points to 39% versus 38.5% over the same period last year. All in, our operating income was $194.7 million, which was an increase of 15.1% versus second quarter of 2012. This exceeded expectations and is a testament to our ability to drive our gross profit expansion and the team's disciplined focus on expense management despite softer comp store sales performance. Our operating income rate increased 98 basis points to 12.6% in the second quarter. The increased operating income rate came both from our Advance stores, as well as our Autopart International business, which grew operating income over 20% during the quarter. Our EPS increased 18.7% versus Q2 last year to $1.59 per share and includes $0.01 of transition costs associated with the integration of BWP. We still anticipate the transition of BWP will occur over an 18-month period from acquisition, and the associated costs with 2013 to be in the range of $0.15 to $0.20. Through the first half of 2013, our operating income dollars increased 1.3% to $398.8 million, and our diluted EPS increased 2.9% to $3.23, including $0.03 of BWP integration costs. Year-to-date, free cash flow is $27.9 million, which is down 89.5% over the same period last year, primarily as a result of the acquisition of BWP. Excluding the net impact of the acquisition, our free cash flow would have been $198.3 million compared to $265.4 million over the same time period last year, primarily due to an unfavorable change in owned inventory, offset by less capital expenditures. Our owned inventory is approximately flat to Q2 2012, and our accounts payable to inventory ratio is 85.1% versus 82.9% in the second quarter of 2012. Our total inventory increased 14.8%, driven by our new Remington DC, more hubs, more new stores and the acquisition of BWP. This increase was higher than our expectations due to a lower-than-anticipated sales performance. At the end of the second quarter, we had roughly $605 million of debt on our balance sheet, and our adjusted debt-to-EBITDAR was 2.2x, which is below our previously stated ceiling of 2.5x. We continue to measure our performance of our business through the financial dimensions of growth, profit and value creation. We continue to prioritize growth as our primary use of capital in order to increase returns and drive shareholder value. As a result, our focus continues to be on accelerating our commercial growth and stabilizing our DIY business. We plan to achieve this goal by improving our availability through our hub store openings, inventory upgrades, supply chain investments and strengthening our market position with increased new store openings. We are proud of our improved coverage and in-market availability, driven by the areas that George covered. We're also proud of the accelerated pace of our new store openings, including the net addition of 21 new stores in the second quarter. This includes the opening of 21 new Advance Auto Parts stores and 5 new Autopart International stores, offset by the closing of 3 Advance stores, one Autopart International store and the consolidation of one BWP store into an existing Advance store. At the end of Q2, our total store count was 3,990. Including the acquisition of BWP in Q1, we've increased our net store count by 298 over the last 12 months. We remain on pace to open 170 to 190 new Advance Auto Parts stores and Autopart International stores this year. We continue to prioritize our use of capital to drive shareholder value by, first, investing in the business; second, looking at strategic opportunities; and thirdly, returning money to shareholders through share repurchases. In every case, we have taken a disciplined approach to capital deployment, weighing the long-term value creation opportunities of each. Over the past several quarters, we have built up our cash position as we wanted to maintain financial flexibility as we assess a range of organic and inorganic growth investments in our business. As our industry continues to consolidate, we believe there maybe opportunities which will enable us to drive profitable growth and value creation, particularly in the commercial space. As we evaluate these opportunities, we are focused on driving attractive financial returns like we have achieved with our recent acquisition of BWP, which year-to-date has added $0.04 per share to our earnings. With this context, year-to-date, we have deployed over $250 million of capital in a manner consistent with our priorities. This includes investing approximately $180 million in our acquisition of BWP and returning approximately $75 million to shareholders via share repurchases, including $15.7 million in our second quarter. At the end of the quarter, we had roughly $418 million left under our share repurchase authorization, and our average diluted share count was 73.3 million shares. As we have said before, we take a long-term view and look beyond individual quarters in making our capital allocation decisions as we balance investment opportunities against returning capital to shareholders. Ultimately, our focus is on maximizing long-term value to shareholders in a manner consistent with our capital allocation priorities. And to that end, we do not intend to maintain our current levels of excess cash beyond the short to medium term. Turning to profit. We are pleased that despite softer sales, we were able to exceed our profit expectations in the second quarter. During the quarter, the 98 basis point increase in our operating margins was driven by some of the key drivers we have identified that will help us get to our long-term goal of 12% operating margins. They include gross profit margin improvements driven by our merchant and field teams in the areas of merchandising capabilities, global sourcing and the execution and continued improvement in areas like shrink. We also made progress in our expense management, where our field teams delivered record labor productivity as measured by our sales per labor hour. And we continue to lower our administrative and support costs in areas such as professional fees and credit card fees. As a reminder, the pathway to our 12% goal requires sales growth, modest gross profit improvement and a significant improvement in our cost efficiency and execution. While we are disappointed with our comp store sales performance during the quarter, we believe our gross profit and SG&A progress is a solid step in the right direction. As a result of our commitment to build a more competitive cost structure while funding strategic investments and to employ a more disciplined approach to expense management, our total SG&A dollars per store decreased slightly to $654,000 per store in our second quarter versus $656,000 during the second quarter of 2012. With respect to value creation, we have maintained our disciplined approach to capital, which is reflected in our return on invested capital of 18.5%. For the quarter, our ROIC decreased 136 basis points versus the second quarter last year, as a result of our increased invested capital due to the acquisition of BWP, the insourcing of our commercial credit and the accelerated pace of our new store openings. Longer term, we see opportunities to improve our ROIC as we begin to generate benefits from our Remington DC, our acquisition of BWP and as our sales from our new store openings begin to ramp. We also see opportunities to reduce our net owned inventory as we move towards our goal of achieving an AP ratio of 100%. Turning to the balance of the year, given our year-to-date comp of minus 2%, we are now expecting comps will be slightly down for the full year. We continue to expect our gross profit rate will increase modestly, and we'll continue to adjust our costs appropriately given our sales trends to deliver on our profit expectations. All in, we continue to be confident, at this time, in our ability to deliver the previously shared earnings per share annual outlook of $5.30 to $5.45. In closing, we are committed to our strategies in Commercial and availability and remain confident in the industry fundamentals and how we are positioned as a company. We are focused on improving our sales performance while continuing to improve our profitability and strengthening our returns to continue to drive shareholder value. We also want to thank our 54,000 team members who lead us every day with their relentless focus on service and commitment to operational excellence and execution, which are key ingredients to delivering on our goals. Operator, we are now ready for questions.