Gary Fields
Analyst · Zane
So the first thing I’d like to talk about is net sales and what we’re looking at so far. The number of rooftop units sold in Q1 of 2019 was up 8.5% versus Q1 of 2018. Condensing units were slightly down, not material. Air handlers were up 8%. Outdoor mechanical rooms were down slightly by three total rooms. Water-source heat pumps were up by 42%. The overall increase in number of units was up by 16%. So we’re seeing some increase in production over Q1 of 2018. The price increases have come along nicely in our backlog. We are looking at a current backlog as of today of about 28% of our total backlog is at our June 15 price level, which was 5% above the level before that. So essentially, what we built in Q1 was at that June price level. But at 28%, you can do the math and figure that, that’s going to be exhausted by mid-to-late Q2. 48% of our backlog is based on our December 5 pricing, which was plus 4% across-the-board and as much as 5% on some small portion. Then we had another price increase in March, and we currently have 24% of our backlog based on this March pricing. So my anticipation is the March price increase was 2% on nearly all items; 5% on some select items. So my anticipation is that in Q2, we will see about half of that 4% price increase, maybe 1/3 to a half of that 4% price increase, hit the bottom line or hit the plant floor, which will affect the bottom line in a positive manner. Then as we move into Q3, we’ll begin to see that additional 2% from the March pricing and will be solidly on the December pricing. So we’re going to have escalating value of our backlog going forward. We’re just about past the subpar backlog. And the June 18 priced backlog is what you’ve been seeing, roughly, most of Q4 and all of 2018 and Q1 of 2019. So the water-source heat pump business is coming along nicely. I told you it was 42%. I’ll give it to you in exact units. We’ve got 2,289 units that we shipped in Q1 versus 1,614 in Q1 of 2018. So the back – the water-source heat pump is still a small percentage of the overall revenue, but it is beginning to increase as we had anticipated earlier. We continue to refine the design on existing legacy products. If you’d like to call them that, the core products for the company. These are very attractive to the marketplace. As you can see, our backlog increased again nicely. And our backlog will also – and I want to back up here, we’ve got a price increase coming up. It was announced. It comes up the first part of June, and that’s another 5%, and that one is across the board. So the backlog continues to improve in its quality and it’s a reasonably nice quality at this moment. Back to the redesign on products. We have begun to use our new laboratory for accelerated development of products. And we’re already seeing a very beneficial aspect to having this ability in-house as opposed to our former limited facilities or outsourcing it. Our replacement market versus new construction market remains fairly stable at roughly 50%. We have seen some growth again in the cannabis market. I’m going to tell you that there’s probably more substantial opportunity and growth in Canada due to their nationwide adoption of the cannabis product. We’re seeing still some acceleration in the U.S. market for the certain areas that have cannabis legalized for primarily medical purposes. Data centers remain stable for us. They had grown substantially in 2018 over any previous year, and that percentage is very stable. The general tone of business is we saw Architectural Billing Index for the first time in 14 months go below 50. And so we talked to our sales channel partners to see what material effect that might be having on them, and there’s been no reported slowdowns as of yet. Looking at our booked sales performance, year-to-date versus what we forecast, we’re currently at about 97% of our forecast on booked sales, and at the end, that was on our forecast. So we’re not seeing any weakness in any particular markets. The backlog number today for March 31 at $166.6 million, represents the highest backlog that the company’s ever had. The lead times have obviously stretched out some, because you can see that we’re not shipping $166 million per quarter rate, which is what would have been. If historically the company’s backlog represented two, maybe a stretch three months of production. So while our production rates are accelerating, the rate of order intake is outrunning what’s going out the door. Continues to be that way. But what we’ve done is very aggressively manage these projects and the expectations of our clients. And while I don’t want to declare that everybody is 100% happy with the outcome of that, I’m going to say it’s been manageable, and we’re very appreciative of our very loyal customers that have been with us for many years that continue to send us substantial orders. So for the remainder of 2019, the water-source heat pump production will continue to accelerate. Our capabilities now exceed what’s coming in the door. We had only recently been balanced to where the order’s coming in the door was about in line with what we were capable of putting out the door. So the water-source heat pump is the one shining star in the product family group that is able to meet or exceed the market’s expectations for lead time. Our Longview products, they maintain almost as good a position with regards to orders coming in the door versus what’s going out the door. Only in the last 60 days have their orders coming in the door outpace what they’re capable of putting out the door. The R&D lab remains with portions yet to be completed. Yet we have had beneficial use on occupancy of certain functions at it. In the next 30 days, we will begin using the Marquis portion of the lab, which is our 108,000 cubic feet acoustical chamber, reverb chamber, that sits on top of 2 50,000 cubic feet reverb chambers. And we will be testing a unit that is 72 feet long for acoustical, thermal and airflow performance. It will be the first test of its type in the entire world, and especially of a unit of this size and capacity. So the lab is already showing beneficial aspects to it and we’re within 30 days of demonstrating something else that’s monumental. That job name is Jacob Javits Center, New York City. They are adding approximately 50% to the building – to its current footprint. AAON was awarded the majority of HVAC equipment for that. And our laboratory testing capabilities played a big part in securing that project. We are within two to three weeks of opening a new parts store here in the Tulsa area. There’s two primary purposes with that: One is to serve the local market more thoroughly than what we currently do, but the other one is so that this is a prototype of what we expect our sales channel partners across North America to duplicate in one form or fashion. It’s a great example given best practices for a parts store business. Our gross profit, we believe, will be improving throughout the year quarter-over-quarter, with direct impact coming from the price increases that I described earlier and how they’re affected relative to the backlog. We believe that the majority of material prices have stabilized. While there could still be some that are moving around a little bit, there’s nothing on the immediate horizon telling us there’s any shakeup like there was back when we had the tariffs and so forth imposed. Labor, we have some small escalation planned in our labor rate on the plant floor to keep pace with the needs in the market so that we keep bringing in qualified people for our expansion and that we retain these people. Salaries, I think, are set for the year and are stable, so we’re not seeing anything there. So there’s some upward pressure in entry-level for any new hires that we might need. CapEx for 2019 is still looking like $40 million. Like normal though, some of these things are a little longer lead times but they don’t actually get the bill in, so I’m hesitant to say we’ll actually get the $40 million extended. But we’ve certainly written purchase orders to allow that to occur. So now, I’m going to turn it over to Norm for any additional comments that he might have.