Steve Belgrad
Analyst · Citigroup. Your line is open
Thanks, Brett. This morning, we’d like to give you additional context and perspective around that result, both the positive and the challenging elements. While this has been a difficult quarter for the industry and for BSIG with a number of metrics not where we want them to be and I actually feel no different about our business this quarter when we have significant outflows as last quarter when we had record inflows. I’m actually quite bullish about our prospects. By the end of this call, I hope you have a better understanding of the following five points, which underscore our optimism on the business. First, the profit share model aligns interest through the market cycle and provides financial cushion in choppy markets. Second, the net outflows you’re seeing are part of the normal cyclical evolution of our product mix, driven by performance challenges in certain products as well as reduced sales in growing asset classes in advance of new products coming online. Third, we continue to invest for the future and have seeds of growth firmly planted in various stages of development at all of our affiliates. Within our affiliates are market-leading growth engines. Fourth, long-term investment performance remains strong and the decline in short-term results is a macro driven anomaly. And fifth, we remain focused on capital management and providing a catalyst for sustainable stock price performance. We continue to balance allocation of capital to opportunistic stock buybacks with the pursuit of diversifying investments that will broaden our product set and drive future growth. I hope these points become clear in the following slides and in Aidan's and Dan's commentary. Turning now to a summary of our actual results on slide three. ENI per share was up 11.9% to $0.47 per share compared to Q2, '17 and produced a stable operating margin of about 38%. Of note, we’ve reduced center expenses including global distribution by about 20% year-over-year. Net Client cash flows of negative $4.1 billion for the quarter were certainly a disappointment, but in no way do I believe this represents any kind of new normal. Sales in an institutional business like ours can be lumpy. These results reflect the confluence of both fundings at their lowest level since Q2, '16 at $6.1 billion after an unusually strong first quarter, which saw $10.3 billion of gross sales, and redemptions at an elevated level of $10.2 billion compared to $8.4 billion last quarter. The biggest driver of this sales decline was in the alternatives area, which reflected the final close of Landmark’s real estate fund last quarter and the law before additional anticipated AUM growth in the second half of the year. We are confident that the decrease in overall sales is cyclical and we have a number product and initiative seeds planted and nearing fruition, particularly at Acadian, which will drive significant future growth, although as you know it’s always difficult to predict exactly when flows will come through. On the redemption side, we are seeing the impact of ongoing redemptions within U.S. sub advisory, a result we believe is secular in nature as well as performance driven outflows, which impacted both U.S. and non- U.S. small cap products. In particular, non-U.S. small cap is a higher fee product area, which we continue to monitor closely. The performance challenges driving these outflows been persistent over several quarters and are not related to the dip in one year performance you saw this quarter. In terms of leading indicators, our global distribution and affiliate one not funded pipelines remains strong and we are seeing an increase in global non-U.S. equity wins. But we also have known outflows and until our pockets of weak performance improve, or new products hit the net impact is hard to predict. With respect to investment performance, our longer term three and five year performance numbers remained very strong at 71% and 81% of revenue bidding benchmark respectively. However, our one-year results declined by 19% to 43% of revenue from 62% of revenue at March 31. While our goal is obviously to have all time periods at greater than 60% of revenue bidding benchmark, this reduction in the one-year period is not reflected of systemic underperformance. Rather, it’s the result of one emerging markets product, which accounted for 16% of our benchmark revenue having a bad June. As Aidan will discuss in more detail, the cause of this split is clearly understood, is not related to any structural process issues and is a clear aberration in the long-term stellar quantitative performance record. At the same time, on the positive side, the quarter saw continued improvement in Barrow’s large-cap value composite, which has generated almost 250 basis points of outperformance year-to-date through June 30, and is beating its Russell 1000 Value benchmark on a 1, 3 and 5 year basis. With respect to capital management, we’ve bought back 50 million of our stock in 2018 through July 31 with 3.4 million shares. We believe our shares have excellent value at current levels, particularly today, and will continue to balance opportunistic purchases with the financial flexibility to grow through acquisitions. I'll cover this more on the next slide. Finally, I'm excited to welcome Reggie Love to the board of BSIG as of August 1. Reggie brings a unique and valuable perspective to our board, with experience in both private equity investing in government. Having spent time with them during our search process, as well as over the last two weeks, I'm confident he will bring helpful insights to our board deliberations and assist us in expanding the reach and profile of our business. Turning to slide four, the growth pyramid. I know we keep this slide in every quarter, but I never want to lose focus on why we’re here, to grow the business and create shareholder value. Sophisticated institutional investors are constantly broadening their search for sustainable alpha generation, and as client demand continues to evolve across investment styles, asset classes and geographies we must be proactive in extending our product set to meet their needs and our growth objectives. With this in mind, I think there are two key points to be made this quarter, the first, with respect our acquisition pipeline and the second in regards to our internal product pipeline. In a way, these are two sides of the same coin, with the goal of expanding our product reach in the market segments with secular growth trends. In some cases this can be done by leveraging existing affiliate capabilities and in other situations these capabilities need to be grown through M&A. We talked about turning flows positive; this is how we’re going to do it. At each affiliate we have developed growth plans, our seeding products and have key initiatives in place. This year, we expect to increase our seeding pool by about $85 million to approximately $180 million. We grew the seed pool by about 40 million net in the first half. A significant portion of the current seed allocation is in the Acadian and Barrow Hanley. In addition, we are providing two investment capitals Landmark where there are a number of additional opportunities for us to support existing and new product lines. As noted in a recent Fundfire article, we also have a significant technology initiative in place at Acadian to expand their product development, flexibility and capacity, whether it’s leading-edge quantitative investing or artificial intelligence many of the future trends, we read about in asset management are embodied in Acadian, our largest affiliate and a key driver of our future growth. With respect to acquisitions, we continue to advance discussions with a variety of potential partners and I remain optimistic that we can execute on a transaction by year-end. We have the financial capacity to prudently invest $400 million or more funded with cash or borrowing in the right transaction or transactions. Our focus is on diversifying our mix of affiliates further into alternatives, in particular real estate alternative credit or fixed income statements, which have good secular flow trends. We’re making steady progress, but we will remain disciplined on pricing and need to take the time to structure transactions which offer the appropriate risk return trade-offs. There a lot of high prices being paid in the market right now, but we believe, we offer a unique and differentiated model, which allows our partners to optimize the value of their retained equity over time. Slide five gives a quick overview of our AUM trends, as well as assets broken out by affiliate and asset class. During the second quarter of 2018, AUM declined by 2.4% to $234.3 billion, driven mostly by the 4.1 billion of outflows we discussed, as well as by 1.7 billion or a 0.7% market decline. [Buried] within this aggregate market decline, however, is a disproportionate decline in our higher fee asset classes such as emerging markets and even benchmarks which decline more than U.S. value equity benchmarks in the quarter. This had the effect of dampening our weighted average fee rate excluding catch-up fees, which decline slightly from 38 basis points in Q1 to 37.9 basis points in Q2, '18. Now, I like to turn things over to Aidan, who can provide further insight into investment performance, and flow trends.