Paul Herendeen
Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open
Thank you, Juan Ramon, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. I am going to review our performance compared with our full year 2014 guidance, provide some color on the fourth quarter results and update you on our full year guidance for 2015. I hope to do all that quickly so that we have plenty of time for Q&A, so here we go. Starting with full year 2014 results, the big stories here are revenue, revenue growth and revenue growth from a variety of sources. In 2014, we delivered 7% operational growth in revenue, the second consecutive year of 7% operational growth and second consecutive year of growth above the long-term industry trend. Pretty good, right? Even better, in the fourth quarter we delivered 9% operational growth versus Q4 of 2013, overcoming some significant FX headwinds to post 5% reported growth with positive operational trends that are heading right into 2015. Changes in FX rates reduced our Q4 reported growth rate, but we were able to overcome that and still put a solid growth number on the board. Good stuff indeed. Since mid-November FX rates have continued to move against us. I will help you think about the impact of FX rates on 2015 in a minute. Now for a look at our full-year performance versus guidance. As you can see on the Web cast slides, our revenue of 4.8 billion exceeded the high end of our expectations. The operating growth of 7% was driven by 9% growth in livestock and 4% in companion animal. On a regional basis, the U.S. accounted for almost half of our growth, up 8% compared with 2013. CLAR accounted for about third of our operational growth, up 13%. APAC was about 11% of our operational growth, up 5%, and EuAfME accounted for about 8% of our operational growth, it was up 2% versus 2013. But in going to belt, and all growth rates are on an operational basis. Continuing with 2014 performance compared with our guidance, our adjusted cost of sales as a percentage of revenue was 35.1%, a bit better than our guidance of 35.5%, and that's primarily due to the positive impact of changes in foreign exchange rates. Adjusted SG&A meanwhile, was 1.507 billion for the full year, approximately 27 million higher than the top end of our guidance range. There were a number of factors that contributed to the increase in SG&A above expectations. First, as we trended above our revenue forecast for the latter part of the quarter, we saw an increase in costs associated with higher revenue, such as sales incentive compensation and distribution expenses. We also authorized additional promotional spending in the quarter, spending that is expected to support revenue growth into 2015. Next, we accelerated some actions in Q4 that triggered additional G&A expense in the quarter, including for example, severance, software license expense and some additional business development expenses. As successful as we have been in driving our top line, we are still a young Company, just finishing up our second year on our own. We have plenty of work remaining to build and fine-tune our G&A organizations and the systems needed to support our global business model. As that process continues, there will be opportunities to move forward and towards a more efficient cost structure. In other items, adjusted R&D expense came in at 393 million, in line with our full-year guidance. This continues to be an essential investment for both developing new products and managing the life cycle of the more than 300 product lines that provide us with our durable and growing revenue streams. Our adjusted effective tax rate for the full year was almost 27%, and 18% in the fourth quarter. This reflected the full-year impact of the R&D tax credit which, you will recall, was not anticipated in our guidance. Also contributing to the lower-than-expected tax rate was a resolution of prior tax matters and changes in the mix of our earnings. It's important to know that the elements that drove the rate down below our and your expectations were not structural and we continue to expect that our tax rate in 2015 will be approximately 29%. As with our 2014 guidance, our tax rate guidance for 2015 does not include the potential benefit of an extension of the R&D tax credit. We exceeded the top end of our guidance for adjusted diluted EPS by $0.03 a share, posting $1.57 per share for the full-year. This was due to the strong revenues and the lower-than-expected tax rate, offset in part by increased spending in the fourth quarter And finally, we exceeded our range on certain significant items and acquisition-related costs for 2014. This was the result of costs associated with certain shareholder activities and some changes associated with our global manufacturing organization. As a result, our reported diluted EPS came in at $1.16, the lower end of our guidance range. Now let me switch gears and dive a bit more into the fourth quarter results. You can see our income statement and adjusted income statement slides on our Web cast. Repeating from my opening remarks, fourth quarter revenue grew 9% operationally and 5% on a reported basis. And while nine minus five equals four, there is some rounding in there so the negative impact of currency movements on our growth rate was roughly 330 basis points. Our U.S. and CLAR segments demonstrated strong double-digit sales growth, leading the way for Zoetis , while the APAC segment grew modestly and EuAfME declined 1% on an operational basis. On the last call I talked about the hazards of reading too much into any one quarter in isolation. EuAfME illustrates that clearly. In Q1 revenue was down 4% operationally and in Q2 revenue was up 4% operationally. In Q3 was up 12% operationally in Q4 it declined 1%. But for the year, operational growth for EuAfME was about 2%, broadly in line with the long-term expected growth rate for that segment. Moving to SG&A. Our adjusted SG&A expenses in the fourth quarter were up 14% operationally due to the timing of promotional spending and other items that I called out earlier in my discussion of the full-year. Our adjusted R&D expense was up 4% operationally in the quarter. R&D, as I had noted before, can vary quarter to quarter due to the timing of clinical trials and other factors. For the full year we performed in line with our guidance. And finally as I mentioned earlier, our catch rate in the quarter was 18%, due to a number of factors that got worked out in the fourth quarter. You also have a full set of regional tables and quarterly commentaries in the press release and Web cast slides. With that material available to you, let me just highlight a few takeaways on the revenue and profitability for each segment. Beginning with the U.S., fourth quarter revenue increased 14% driven by very strong livestock sales, which were up 19%, a truly stellar quarter for the largest segment of our business. The growth in livestock products, especially cattle in United States was based on higher demand for our premium products as producers continue to benefit from strong market conditions, some of which Juan Ramon just touched on. In companion animal products in the U.S., we generated growth of 7% driven by APOQUEL and other key brands, and despite continued competition for RIMADYL and competitive pressure in vaccines and parasiticides. Based on the U.S. segment strong sales and lower relative expense growth, their segment earnings increased by 20%. In Europe, Africa and Middle East, revenue decreased 1% on an operational basis compared with the fourth quarter 2013. This was the result of revenue increases in Southern Europe and Germany, driven by livestock as well as APOQUEL sales in the UK and Germany, with those increases more than offset by declines in other markets such as France and Russia. In France, we had anticipated some softness in the fourth quarter based on the fact that customers bought large amounts of anti-infectives in the third quarter ahead of more restrictive legislative changes that went into effect January 1st. The EuAfME segment earnings decreased by 4% operationally in the quarter, primarily due to declines in revenue and the timing of promotional spending. Moving to CLAR, which is our Canada and Latin American segment, we generated an increase of 16% operationally compared with the fourth quarter 2013. Brazil and Canada are the principal drivers in the CLAR region, given their relative size, and we saw growth in both livestock and companion animal products in these two countries. In Canada we saw significant cattle product sales due to strong market conditions for producers. Increased medicalization rates for companion animals in Brazil have been a driver of growth there as well. We also saw strong growth in Venezuela and other emerging markets in Central and South America. These high inflationary markets afford attractive growth opportunities that need to be carefully monitored. The CLAR segment earnings increased 20% on an operational basis, driven by the revenue growth and limited growth in operating expenses. Finally, in Asia Pacific we had an increase of 4% operationally compared to the fourth quarter of 2013. Sales of livestock products did well, particularly in Australia, Southeast Asia and across the board in emerging markets. A growing vaccine portfolio for swine and new parasiticide products continued to drive our performance there. Sales of companion animal products, however, declined 6% operationally, primarily due to the termination of a distributor agreement in Japan that we talked about last quarter. The APAC segment operating earnings increased 6% operationally due to the revenue growth and limited growth in operating expenses. Now let me turn to guidance for the full year 2015, which we first provided at our Investor Day in mid-November. We’re updating certain elements of our full year guidance today to reflect three things. First, a factor over which we have no control and that’s FX rates. We're adjusting our guidance based on the changes in foreign currency exchange rates from mid-November when we first reported our guidance for 2015 to reflect rates as of late January. In those roughly 70 days the U.S. dollar strengthened against almost all of the major currencies in which we transact. For emphasis and in round numbers, the dollar was up 9% versus the euro, 8% versus the Canadian dollar, 8% versus the Aussie dollar, 4% versus the British pound, 1% against the Japanese yen and against the Brazilian real it was flat. Those are our top six currencies. The movement in exchange rates since mid-November reduced our revenue expectations for full year 2015 by 125 million or 255 basis points, based on the midpoint of our initial guidance range. We now expect the full year impact of FX to be about 600 basis points or almost 300 million on our full year 2015 revenue as compared with our 2014 actual results. I want to repeat that for emphasis. Since mid-November the change in FX rate reduced our expectations for the full year 2015 by 255 basis points or 125 million, comparing our revised expectations for 2015 back to 2014 actual results, the changes in FX rates account for a 600 basis point reduction in our expected growth rate. So natural hedging from expenses denominated in foreign currencies reduces the dollar impact of the movements in FX at adjusted net income, where the negative impact of the change rate was roughly $30 million or roughly 360 basis points down from the midpoint of our initial guidance range. Something for you to be aware of, if the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen against our major currencies, that can put upward pressure on our effective tax rate. At this point, we are affirming our guidance for our tax rate at approximately 29%, not including the R&D tax credit. But for emphasis, I am going to repeat something I just said, continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar could cause us to have to revisit that guidance. So that's another part we can monitor but don't control. The part we can control are our operating expenses in 2015. In addition to the expense reductions driven by the change in FX rates, we revised downward our range of expectations for SG&A expenses by an additional $35 million. This reflects targeted reductions in spending intended to help offset the FX impact on 2015 adjusted net income. Additionally we completed the acquisition of the assets of Abbott Animal Health this week. With that done now, we will begin integration and expect a positive impact of approximately 75 million to revenue for our full-year 2015 results, an accretion of $0.01 per share to adjusted diluted EPS for the full-year 2015. Taking the FX rate changes and our reduction of expected SG&A into account as well as the Abbott transaction, our revised guidance calls for revenue in the range of 4.8 billion to 4.9 billion and results in our holding our guidance for adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $1.61 to $1.68 per share. The net $50 million reduction in the revenue range represents a roughly 125 million, or 2.5%, decrease driven by the change in the FX rates. Meanwhile, the combination of the natural FX hedges inherent in our business and our targeted $35 million of OpEx reductions and the overall impact of Abbott, all those things combined enabled us to maintain our earlier adjusted diluted EPS guidance for 2015. While we provided out guidance in November, we expressed growth targets based on the midpoints of our 2014 guidance ranges. With 2014 now final, it won't be freshening the growth rates implied by our guidance. The more significant revenue base that we delivered in 2014 and our guidance as revised today to include Abbott and the expected expense reductions, we are expecting revenue growth on an operational basis in the range of 6.5% to 8.5% and growth of adjusted net income in the range of 11% to 16%. All the other details of our guidance are included in the table attached to our press release. Please note that our guidance does not reflect any future currency devaluation in Venezuela. While we do not guide on a quarterly basis, I will remind you of a comment I made at our Investor Day in November about the trajectory of our overall performance in 2015. We still expect the year to start low and end high. A key driver of our growth in 2015 will be the additional supply of APOQUEL, but we will not see that supply increase until Q2. I also want to note that the revenue impact of the Abbott acquisition in Q1 is nominal, less than $5 million. And that there will be a negative impact on reported Q1 results based on the changes in FX rates since my comments in November. To sum up the quarter and the year, we continue with very strong revenue and earnings growth, demonstrating the strength of our global business model. The diversity of our business across species, product lines, geographies and therapeutic areas is one of our core strengths. Our global footprint enables us to overcome weaknesses in some regions and deliver consistent revenue and earnings growth. We demonstrated an ability to drive gross margin improvements and operating expense containment in our regional statements, while continue to absorb some of the impact and buildup of costs for our corporate functions. Foreign currency was a significant factor on our reported results in the quarter and for the year, and we have updated our full-year 2015 guidance based on the rates in effect as of late January 2015. We expect to deliver strong revenue and profit growth on an operational basis in 2015, 6.5% to 8.5% for revenue and 11% to 16% for adjusted net income. While the currency headwinds are expected to be a drag on our reported results and growth rates, we have taken steps to mitigate some of those impacts and will continue to pursue means of protecting and growing our adjusted net income throughout the year. That concludes my prepared remarks and we'll now open the line for your questions. Operator?