Ian Siegel
Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open
Thanks for the question, Aaron. This is Ian. And I just want to start by saying some things as plainly as possible, which is, clearly, we're in a macroeconomic slowdown. And online recruiting has effectively cooled across the country, especially among SMBs. So if you look at other job companies at our scale, they're delivering the same message that we're delivering today. And similarly or correspondingly to what you would expect from a macro slowdown, we are seeing a surge in job seekers. When there are less jobs, it's going to take these job seekers longer to find work and that is, in fact, what we are seeing. So based on that backdrop, we made the assumption using the information that was available to us at the time from January that there's going to be a softer hiring environment throughout 2023. We don't have a better prediction than that. As we have repeatedly told you, however, that if there is a softening labor market, if there are less opportunities to invest, if we don't see the ROI, we have the ability to rapidly pull spending down. And then as you saw, in particular in the post-COVID period, when the recovery comes, we get very early indication and we're able to rapidly invest to ride it back up. This is going to be one of those periods where we pull back, and so profitability is going to go up. If you look at the short-term, yes, our top-line revenue is growing, our outlook for it is coming down. But if you look at our profit outlook, if you look at our cash flow outlook, if you look at our long-term growth outlook, those remain very strong. We continue to expect to grow our EBITDA margins to 30%-plus over time. And I just want to reiterate, if you ask me why am I feeling confident in our long-term, I would point to the fact that fundamentally, every quarter, we share the data with you, we get better at delivering the right candidates to employers. It's just something we're persistently improving at. We delivered 8 million [indiscernible] just last quarter, and that was in one of the tightest labor markets that any of us have seen a historically tight labor market. And then on top of that, not only do we have 80% brand awareness with employers, we've been able to drive brand awareness with job seekers to 80% after almost $1 billion of investment in order to build those brands. And that's a strategy that seems to be paying off because now that the labor market is rebalancing, the job seekers are coming back, and we are in a strong position to serve their needs as they look for work. And then I would just also emphasize that all of our long-term initiatives that are focused on innovation, whether it's Phil, our personal AI recruiter, or the modern matching techniques we're working on or the novel user experiences we're putting together, all of those remain fully staffed and funded, in fact, R&D investment is going to go up this year. And when you pair that with the size and scale of our existing marketplace and the brand awareness we have, I feel very confident in the long-term. As to the two questions you asked, one regarding, why do we have Q2 through Q3 climbing, obviously, I'm going to turn it over to Tim, our CFO, and let him take these two questions.