Paul Burdiss
Analyst · Evercore. Your question please
Thank you, Harris, and good evening everyone. As Harris mentioned, our financial performance this quarter was solid. However, the quickly changing interest rate environment, specifically the inverted yield curve and related expectation for falling short term rates, is creating revenue headwinds, which we are working to manage through.I'll began on Slide 8, which highlights two measures of profitability, return on assets and return on tangible common equity. As Harris highlighted, we expect to continue to actively manage the areas that we can control, including loan growth, fee income growth, expense control and balance sheet leverage, to improve balance sheet profitability.On Slide 9, for the second quarter of 2019, Zions' net interest income increased 4% from the prior year period, up $21 million to $569 million. While not at the same year-over-year growth rate as the prior quarter due in parts to reasonably lower short-term interest rates and the inverted curve, much of the growth in net interest income can be contributed to loan growth. The 14 basis point decline in the net interest margin was more than we had anticipated when we spoke in April. I'll describe this in a little more detail later. But at a high level, about half of that decline in the quarter was due to lower loan yields and about half was due to deposit cost and funding mix.Slide 10 breaks down net interest income by both rate and volume. You can see that our average loans grew 7% over the year ago period. Average loan growth in the second quarter was also strong relative to first quarter, increasing about 9% on an annualized basis. Over the prior year period, yield on loans increased 28 basis points. However, relative to the prior quarter, the yield on loans declined 8 basis points. This is attributable to a couple of dominant factors; first, the recent decline in short-term rates; and secondly, lower rates on new loans relative to maturing loans. This compression could be attributed to several factors, including competitive forces, as well as credit quality differences.We continue to maintain our discipline on underwriting standards, and have even tightened standards somewhat in select areas as we continue to prepare to be a positive outlier during the next economic downturn. This improvement in portfolio composition embedded in our book has adversely impacted our loan yields overtime. But importantly, has translated too much stronger performance in our stress test results. This has supported a reduction in the amount of common equity supporting the company, therefore, facilitating the repurchase of about 10% of our company's common stock over the past year.For average total deposits, we are reporting growth of 3% over the prior year period. We experienced a similar 2% annualized growth rate when compared to the first quarter. Although, not shown on this page, average non-interest bearing deposits decreased $550 million or about 2% from the year ago period, which is to be expected during the rising rate environment. We generate deposits through strong relationship banking, which is evident in the continued growth in deposit balances with a relatively modest increase in deposit cost.While that has been a benefit to us in the past and as we have discussed previously, this also means that it may be more difficult to reduce our cost of deposits as rates decline. When compared to the prior quarter, our cost of total deposits increased 6 basis points with most of this due to exception pricing activity on our strongest relationships. The increase was a little less than the change we reported in the first quarter 2019, and is generally consistent with our expectations and public comments over the past several months.Slide 11 depicts the key net interest margin components. Our net interest margin was down 14 basis points relative to the first quarter as loan yields reacted relatively quickly to lower interest rates, while customer expectations regarding deposit rates have yet to recognize the lower rate environment. Additionally, our funding mix has become somewhat more weighted toward relatively expensive wholesale funding. While the interest rate environment presents a significant challenge to the net interest margin, we remain focused on profitable balance sheet growth.Turning to loan growth. Slide 12 depicts the year-over-year period end loan growth by portfolio type with the size of the circles representing the relative size of the portfolio. For nearly all categories, we are reporting solid and consistent growth. Our growth outlook for each portfolio is unchanged and shown here on Slide 12.Interest rate sensitivity is reported on Slide 13. As we have discussed previously, we have been working for the past year or so to protect net interest income in the event of falling interest rate over the past quarter. Market expectations for the path of short term rates have incorporated multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Hedges are much less effective when falling rates have already been priced into the cost of the hedge. Although, we continue to look for opportunities to decrease our risk to falling interest rates we have paused and swapped at rates that already incorporate multiple rate reductions.It is important to note that we currently have over $2 billion of interest rate swaps on the books. Also, after quarter end, we increased the notional value of interest rate floors meant to protect against very low rates. We currently have $7 billion of interest rate floors with a strike price of 1%.Next, a brief review of non-interest income on Slide 14. Customer related fees were up a solid 4% from the year ago period due largely to strength in lending activity and sales of capital markets products. Non-interest expense remains controlled.As shown on Slide 15, non-interest expense grew less than 1% to $424 million from $421 million in the year ago period. Key drivers of the change were an increase in salary and benefits of about 2%, an increase of all other line items with the exception of FDIC insurance premiums of about 2% and a decline of FDIC insurance premiums of $8 million with the primary contributor being the elimination of the FDIC surcharge. Excluding this change, total non-interest expense increased about 2%.Looking ahead on non-interest expense, we expect to uphold our focus on expense controls and streamlining bank operations, while investing in technology and people to enable control continued business growth. We are reiterating our expectation for slight non-interest expense growth, which can be interpreted as growth in the low single percentage rate change. Although with headwinds on revenue, in the near-term, we are working even harder to further limit expense growth.Turning to Slide 16. The efficiency ratio was 59% compared to the year ago period of 60.9%. We continue to expect our efficiency ratio will be below 60% for the full year of 2019.As seen on Slide 17, credit quality continues to do remarkable with the trailing 12 month net charge-off ratio of only 1 basis point compared to the prior quarter classified loans increased $41 million. The increase is attributable to a few unrelated credits rather than any adverse trend. Oil and gas classified now stand at about 2%, and there is general stability in the other broad categories.Net charge-offs for the quarter were $14 million, of which about $8 million was related to a single larger credit as mentioned by Harris earlier. While the dollar value has increased, the allowance for loan loss as a percent of loans was slightly lower when compared to the prior year period. The linked quarter increase in the provision for credit losses was largely attributable to these net charge-offs previously mentioned, loan growth and a modest increase in the qualitative portion related to general and economic conditions.We continue to work toward compliance with the new CECL accounting standard, which will become effective early next year. I expect that Zions will be in a position to disclose more in the coming months, including an estimated financial impact from the adoption of CECL.Finally, on Slide 18, we depict our financial outlook for the next 12 months relative to second quarter of 2019. We have reduced our outlook for net interest income to stable to slightly decreasing. But I will caution you that net interest income is becoming increasingly difficult to predict in the current rate environment.Over the past several quarters, we have generally provided net interest income outlooks, which have not incorporated changes in short-term rates. However, due to the recent dramatic changes in the interest rate environment, we are incorporating into our outlook the shape of the current yield curve, which would imply at least 50 basis points of short-term rate decreases by the FOMC. Our net interest income outlook also assumes a modest decline in our securities portfolio balances.Further down the page and as we have said previously, we will work carefully to manage non-interest expenses to reflect overall revenues. Otherwise, our outlook remains relatively unchanged from that which was reported throughout the second quarter of 2019.This concludes our prepared remarks. Latif, would you please open the line for questions?