Doyle Arnold
Analyst · Reg Q
Thanks, Harris. Good afternoon, everyone. As noted in the press release, Page 1, we have posted net income applicable to common shareholders of $29 million or $0.16 per diluted common share for the quarter. As we've done previously, we also presented the earnings in a way that excludes a couple of noncash items related to the sub debt amortization and conversion into preferred stock; and the FDIC loan discount accretion, which we believe is useful to longer-term oriented investors, as we don't expect those 2 income expense items to be with us into perpetuity. On that basis, earnings improved to $0.45 per share from $0.29 per share in the prior quarter. There are also a few small items that we can call noise that are in the numbers, but they net to a fairly immaterial number. For the rest of our agenda today, I'll highlight 4 key topics: Revenue, some additional detail on credit, capital and last, some housekeeping items for those of you trying to update your models. And in that vein, I will also then provide you with our current outlook. And then, we'll try to respond to questions. First of all, revenue drivers. As usual, spread income accounted for 3/4 of net revenue. On Page 12 of the release, you'll note that for the first time in several quarters, there was positive loan growth amounting to $279 million or about 0.8% sequentially, which compares favorably to what the industry average reports have been on the Fed H8 data of about 0.4%. Our growth was driven primarily by relatively strong increase of nearly $300 million in the C&I category or about 3.2%, which also compares favorably to recent industry growth reports. We also had growth in residential mortgage up about $880 million or 5% sequentially. Other color on the C&I growth, much of it is a function of existing customers drawing on existing credit lines or requesting an increase in lines of credit. Commercial loan utilization rates increased to 36% from 34.8% last quarter, and that's in spite of a 2% larger commitment balance in the denominator. While we're seeing some erosion of underwriting standards within the industry such as only getting partial guarantees instead of full guarantees or lengthening of tenure, the most common form of competition still's on the pricing side, and we are subject to those same pressures. They're there, but they did not seem to accelerate in the second quarter per se. Most of the pressure -- the real shift came earlier this year kind of 6 to 12 months ago. And as loans mature and are renewed at the current pricing levels, we are experiencing pricing pressures on renewals. Construction loans declined $198 million sequentially. And only a minimal amount of that decline, of about $12 million, was due to loans moving from construction into term CRE. An additional $37 million of the decline related to net charge-offs on construction loans. But that $37 million compares to nearly $100 million in the second quarter a year ago and a total of nearly $600 million in dollars of charge-offs in 2009 in construction and development loans, so. There's been very good progress over time in reducing risk in that portfolio, and loss rates continue to decline. One housekeeping item that I'll interject for those trying to track the subcomponents of loan balances, net, we reclassified approximately $156 million this quarter of term CRE loans to owner-occupied commercial loans, which if adjusted, results in a linked quarter term CRE increase of about $21 million, very modest. That same adjustment applied to owner-occupied loans drops the growth in that category to about $19 million, also very modest. So if that wasn't clear, we'll take questions or James will take your questions and I'll answer it. But net, $156 million of what had been term CRE last quarter got moved into owner-occupied, as we reinvestigated just what those loans were. On Page 16, the GAAP net interest margin declined 14 basis points to 3.62% compared to 3.76% in the prior quarter. That's related entirely to the larger amount of sub debt that converted second quarter compared to first. The core NIM, which excludes the amortization effects of sub debt conversion and items related to FDIC loan outperformance, was quite stable. It was 4.07% compared to 4.06% in the prior quarter, and I believe that was consistent with our guidance throughout the quarter. So the adverse effect of the sub debt conversion amortization on the NIM was 53 basis points compared with 36 in the prior quarter. And note on the rates and yields chart the discount amortization impact shows up as the cost of long-term debt, which was 22.5% this quarter, even though the coupon on that debt ranges from 5.5% to 6%. Finally, as has been the case for a while now, our balance sheet remains asset-sensitive. Under a scenario where interest rates were to rise 200 basis points in a parallel shift and assuming approximately $6 billion of noninterest-bearing or other low-cost deposits were replaced with market rate funding, we would expect to see about a 9% increase in net interest income. Our modeling shows that we are still asset-sensitive, but less so in various nonparallel shifts in the curve. Shifting to credit, on Page 13 as Harris mentioned earlier in the call, virtually all of the major credit quality metrics improved when compared to the prior quarter. We had a couple of highlights that aren't not in the tables on Page 13 through 15 of the release. First, inflows of new nonaccrual loans again declined. They were down 22% from the prior quarter to $263 million. Loss severity as measured by loss experienced in classified loans, or loss given classified status, continue to trend moderately lower for the portfolio overall. C&I loss severity improved the most for the second quarter in a row with owner-occupied following close behind. The performance of classified and nonaccrual construction loans was quite strong this quarter. Classified residential construction loans declined 39% from the prior quarter, and nonaccrual residential construction loans fell 26%. Classified commercial construction loans declined 19%, and nonaccrual commercial construction loans declined 13%. Additionally, classified term CRE loans declined 12%, a strong improvement compared to the prior quarter's modest decline of only 2%. The allowance for credit losses, which includes both the ALLL and the reserve for unfunded commitments, declined to $1.34 billion from $1.45 billion last quarter. Nevertheless, all of the coverage ratios strengthened relative to problem credits and loan losses. And in fact if you annualized the second quarter net charge-offs, the reserve now covers nearly about 3 years of charge-offs. Quantitative factors declined significantly due to the aforementioned trend, namely, the reduction in both classified loans and the continued improvement in loss rates on classified loans. However, we increased the qualitative component of our loan loss reserve by about $35 million due to some of the clouds that formed on the horizon, namely things like European debt situation uncertainty over U.S. fiscal policy and a number of disappointing economic reports and forecast revisions during the quarter. Let me touch briefly on troubled debt restructurings. As you know, there's new reporting guidance that comes into effect for the third quarter. We're currently reviewing all loans within the portfolio to see which ones may meet the new FASB guidelines for a TDR that weren't reported previously. We are not -- we have not completed that review, but we do expect a modest increase in TDRs as a result of the more broad criteria for whether a loan was renewed or restructured at a market rate, whether the loan was troubled, which was broadened to include the loans likely to become troubled within the foreseeable future. Again, though, we think that increase will be modest. And any increase in the TDRs will have no impact on our net charge-offs, the allowance for loan losses or provision expense. Thus, while change in accounting may be helpful to some, it will not fundamentally alter how we run the business or our outlook for profitability and earnings growth. Shifting now to capital. The tangible common equity ratio declined 6 basis points to 6.95%, entirely driven by the increase in deposit balances of nearly $600 million. Those are primarily noninterest bearing deposits, and this led to a nearly similar-sized increase in assets, with a majority of the increase going into cash and cash equivalents. Another headwind of the TCE ratio is the sub debt conversion, wherein tangible common equity balances were reduced through the conversion process. And that direct impact on common just about offset, not quite, but largely offset the net earnings to common during the quarter. Tangible common equity relative to risk-weighted assets was steady in the prior quarter or compared to prior quarter. Tier 1 common ratio was unchanged at 9.32%. Other reg cap ratios were stable through very modestly stronger compared to prior quarters. With regard to the bank trust preferred CDO portfolio and as it relates to capital, you'll notice on Page 5 of the release 2 changes in the carrying values of all 3 classification buckets. This was driven largely by an increase in trading volume in the markets for these securities, but also by a sale of some of the CDOs. First as trades occur, and in no way would we have classified the market as liquid, we nonetheless consider the pricing of such trades if they're non-distressed relative to our portfolio marks. This has been our practice for several quarters now. And last quarter, you may recall that there were more trades in the original AAA-rated securities, which caused us to reduce their carrying value last quarter. Additional trading in the original AAA-rated securities in the second quarter actually drove an increase in their value, taking that group up to 65% of par from 59% last quarter, more or less reversed the decline that we posted last quarter. However, we observed this quarter a few non-distressed trades in the original A and BBB-rated securities that were somewhat comparable to ours. Consideration of these trading prices and valuation process led us to reduce our estimates of fair value for these junior tranches. In addition, we took advantage of the slight increase in liquidity to sell a handful of CDOs for a net loss of $4 million, or about 4% haircut to our amortized costs on those securities. This had the primary benefit of reducing classified assets, and it reduced the par value of our TruP CDOs by $185 million and amortized costs by $95 million, as noted in the text of the press release. I know many of you will have questions about the timing of TARP repayment, and let me address those in advance by saying I'm not going to address them. We note that we've achieved some important milestones or are well on the way of achieving them, as we've discussed previously. These include return to profitability, dramatically better credit quality ratios, stronger capital levels and enhanced operating practices. Beyond that, I'm simply going to refer you to previous guidance and we're not going to talk about TARP repayment. At that time when I said sometime in the second half of the year, we'd be sitting down with the Fed. I still think that's the case, and I would rather negotiate with them, not with you folks on the line, and not negotiate with them through comments in public. So that's about all there is to say about that. Now a few other housekeeping items, noninterest income. Dividends and other investment income, you may have noticed jumped considerably. This was in part due to the reevaluation of an interest and in an equity investment. Well, we think the quarterly run rate on this item may be more or less $10 million in the near term, but again it will probably be somewhat volatile. But just to caution, you shouldn't extrapolate this quarter's revenue from that line into the future, maybe build off of something like $10 million in your model. As a reminder, we do expect to incur a quarterly expense of $5.3 million for the total return swap on the CDOs this quarter. That has not been in the last three quarters, as you may recall. It will show up as a contra item within the fair value of non-hedge derivative income line. Moving to noninterest expense. Salaries and benefits jumped by about $7 million, primarily due to bonus accruals. That's a function of recent better performance, absolutely and relative to budget. There's also about $4 million of expense that's more akin to onetime or temporary items that you probably would be advised not to annualize and grow. Regarding FDIC premiums, the new formulas for computing premiums became effective this quarter. And as you note, that line item was about $15 million compared to about $25 million in each of the last several quarters. $15 million, we think, is the starting point for the run rate going forward. And the amount may decline somewhat over time, as some of our credit quality metrics and other things that drive the rather more complex calculation improve. Although if there's any asset growth, that may somewhat offset that, but let's see. Our provision for unfunded lending commitments was negative $2 million compared to a negative $10 million in the prior quarter. Second quarter is more typical of the level we'd expect to see, assuming continued credit improvement and moderate growth in loan commitments. Credit improvement will improve it, loan growth will increase it. And so maybe somewhere around 0 should be your starting point for the near term. Okay, more broad guidance for the next few quarters. Regarding the balance sheet, we expect the overall balance sheet size will remain about flat through 2011, or possibly grow modestly. If there's growth, it will be driven, as it was this quarter, by cash equivalent asset increases that result from deposit growth. As a base case, we expect the loan portfolio to continue to show flat to very modest growth over the medium term. Pipelines are healthy. Production volume increased somewhat in the past few months. But there's more uncertainty today compared to 3 months ago with regard to the impact of economic news. And in fact, loan balances were flat in the month of June and are more or less flat here in early July. So I wouldn't take the change from first quarter's decline in loans to this quarter's growth in loans and just build that delta in. I think it's going to be more modest than that. With regard to the margin, we think the core NIM will remain generally stable during the next several quarters as it has been for the last several. Some modest pressure may arise if deposit growth continues at recent rates simply due to high ratio of incremental cash growth at very low yields compared to incremental loan growth. If loan growth does exceed deposit growth, we fully expect NIM expansion. With regard to credit quality, notwithstanding the weaker economic news, we still expect charge-offs to continue to decline over the next couple of quarters. We expect nonaccrual loans and other adversely graded loans will continue to recede at a healthy pace. This is likely to result in very low provision expense in the second half of the year. But we will watch closely the economic environment and leading indicator developments, which may continue to pressure upward our qualitative adjustments to the reserve. Tax rate, we would expect the rate to be between around 38% and 40% for the full year, which implies about a 36% rate for the second half of 2011. This assumes moderate amounts of sub debt conversion. If a large amount occurs, it would have the effect of raising the effective tax rate. Regarding sub debt conversions, we expect to file an 8-K in mid-August regarding sub debt conversion amount for the third quarter. That's when we will know the amount that has been posted for conversion by the owners of the debt. It's difficult to predict the conversion amount in advance, as you know. However, we would note that the outstanding balance that can convert this quarter is only $247 million, roughly half the dollar amount that was able to convert in the second quarter. As the conversion amounts in the first and third quarters tend to be lower. And all else being equal, we would expect this one to be lower as well. I'd also note that the ARB spread, i.e., the pop that one could get from converting sub debt, if you marked it up to market to preferred, has been very low of late. In some cases, it's even been negative. And thus, one of the major incentives to convert has moderated substantially. With that, I think we will give you a couple of minutes to queue up questions. And moderator, we'll turn it back to you.