Chris Greiner
Analyst · Truist Securities. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, David, and good afternoon, everyone. Before diving into the details of our quarterly results and updated 2025 guidance, I want to highlight four key takeaways. First, despite global macro uncertainty, we report in a strong quarter with broad-based contribution across all areas of our business. Second, our increased 2025 projections are reflective of our momentum exiting the first quarter and the good visibility we have into the second quarter, while being thoughtfully conservative in the second half, given macroeconomic and policy uncertainty. Third, we've looked at our capital allocation strategy and are taking significant steps to reduce dilution and stock-based compensation expense. And fourth, Our increased focus on free cash flow generation is evident in our first quarter results, with free cash flow growth significantly ahead of revenue and adjusted EBITDA, and a substantial improvement in free cash flow conversion. Now, let's get into the details of our first quarter results. In Q1, we delivered revenue of $264 million, up 36% year-over-year, or 26% excluding the contribution from LiveIntent. Total scaled customer count grew to 548, up 19% year-over-year, and an addition of 21 customers sequentially. We had 159 Super Scaled customers at the end of the first quarter, an increase of 10% year-over-year, and 11% quarter-to-quarter. Scaled customer quarterly ARPU of $467,000 increased 12% year-over-year and Super Scaled customer quarterly ARPU of $1.4 million increased 23% year-over-year. From an industry perspective on a trailing 12 month basis, sis of our top 10 verticals grew faster than 20% year-over-year. We ended the quarter with 173 quota carriers, up 22% year-over-year and down [7 heads] (ph) sequentially. The sequential decline was in line with our expectations and driven by the completion of the LiveIntent integration. Our direct mix in the first quarter was 73%, down from 74% in the fourth quarter of 2024, but up from 67% a year ago, resulting in direct revenue growth of 48% year-over-year. Our GAAP cost of revenue in the quarter was 39.1%, 90 basis point improvement sequentially, and a 30 basis point improvement from the first quarter of 2024. This improvement in cost of revenue, as well as leverage in other areas of our operating expenses, resulted in our 17th straight quarter of expanding adjusted EBITDA margins year-over-year. In the first quarter, we generated $46.7 million of adjusted EBITDA at a margin of 17.7%, 200 basis points higher year-over-year, and $2.2 million better than the midpoint of our guidance. One of the addbacks to adjusted EBITDA was $3 million of restructuring expenses, which were anticipated and primarily related to the integration of LiveIntent. Our GAAP net loss for the first quarter was $22 million, an improvement from $40 million in the first quarter of 2024. First quarter net cash provided by operating activities was $34.8 million, up 41% year-over-year, with free cash flow of $28.2 million, up 87% and representing a margin of 10.7%. This translated to a free cash flow conversion of 60%, a significant improvement from 45% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 50% in the first quarter of 2024. We also repurchased 1.6 million shares for $25 million, accounting for 89% of our free cash flow generated in the quarter. We continue to repurchase shares after the close of the quarter, acquiring an additional 1.8 million shares for $21 million between April 1st and April 25th. We have approximately $38 million remaining under our current share repurchase authorization and upon completion of this authorization, we plan to initiate a new one. Before diving into our 2025 guidance, I want to highlight a few key elements of our business model that are especially relevant given the current macro environment and informed how we approached guidance. First, as David discussed earlier, we deliver a clear, measurable ROI to our customers. This value proposition has helped us maintain an annual net revenue retention rate of 111% or higher every year since our IPO in 2021. Second, nearly all of the marketing and advertising spend we support is tied to measurable KPIs, particularly lower funnel conversion metrics. We believe this makes our platform more resilient in volatile macro environments as lower funnel spend tends to be less discretionary than top of funnel brand awareness efforts. Third, we primarily address large enterprises whose marketing spend tends to be more stable than small businesses in our view. And fourth, typically more than 90% of our annual revenue comes from customers that have been with us more than a year. These dynamics have contributed to our relative outperformance during challenging periods. For example, in 2022, a year when many tech companies experienced a sharp slowdown in growth, and then rising inflation and broader budget rationalization, our revenue growth accelerated by 4 percentage points, reaching 29%. Lastly, and relevant in the context of the current macro environment, our direct exposure to Federal Government and China is minimal. Following a strong quarter and considering our current data points, including a robust sales pipeline, positive customer interactions, and good visibility into the second quarter, we would typically revise our full-year guidance upwards by the amount we exceeded the first quarter's expectations, as well as increase our second quarter forecast. However, we'd all agree these are not typical circumstances. Because of this, we prefer to adopt a thoughtful approach that blends short-term momentum and visibility with second half conservatism. We are increasing our second quarter revenue outlook by $2 million, while adjusting our growth expectations for the second half of the year. The conservatism in our guidance can be seen through three lenses. First, we are one month into our second quarter and have good visibility for this period. Second, although we continue to see healthy demand, our guidance assumes a softer macro in the second half of the year. Third, to meet our guidance, our four fastest growing industries in the first half of the year only need to grow at half that rate in the second half. To be clear, our customers have not expressed intentions to decrease their investments with Zeta due to macro uncertainty, nor has there been pull forward in spending. Our intent is to create buffer by exercising prudent conservatism regarding expectations for the remainder of 2025. Our 2025 revenue guidance is now $1.242 billion, at the midpoint, an increase of $2 million versus the midpoint of our prior guidance. This represents reported growth of 23%, growth of 21% when adjusting for LiveIntent, and political candidate revenue in the year-over-year comps. For the second quarter, we now expect revenue of $297 million at the midpoint, $2 million higher than our previous guidance. For adjusted EBITDA, we're increasing the midpoint for our 2025 guidance to $258.5 million, up $2 million from our prior guidance, and representing a year-over-year increase of 34% at a margin of 21%. In alignment with our conservative approach to revenue projections, we're confident we can achieve our adjusted EBITDA margin target for 2025 just through leverage in sales and marketing, R&D, and G&A. We have many levers we can pull within operating expenses and are confident we can protect our margins in the event our top line is adversely affected due to macro weakness. For the second quarter of 2025, we now expect adjusted EBITDA of $54.9 million at the midpoint, up from our previous expectation of $54.4 million and representing growth of 42% at a margin of 18.5%. We are increasing the midpoint of our 2025 free cash flow guidance to $131.5 million, up $2 million from the midpoint of our previous guidance, and representing year-over-year growth of 43%. As I mentioned up front, we revisited our capital allocation strategy. In addition to aggressively buying back shares, we have also decided to significantly reduce dilution and stock-based compensation. As such, we're introducing a new guidance item this quarter, stock-based compensation expense, which we expect to be $190 million for 2025, lower than the $195 million in 2024. In addition, for 2025, we expect our normal core share count dilution to be 4% to 6%, and for 2026, we expect to improve further to 3% to 4%. This is a significant reduction from 15% total dilution in 2024, which included 8% normal course equity grant dilution. Slide 20 in our earnings supplemental outlines how we plan on achieving these targets. Part of the improvement will be driven by David, Steve Gerber, and myself not participating in the annual equity grant process in 2025, and instead, we'll have our compensation tied to longer-term goals. We recognize that stock-based compensation expense and dilution are important topics for our investors, and we're taking significant steps to improve both. Lastly, we remain confident in our Zeta 2028 plan and are reaffirming our long-term targets, which project over $2 billion in annual revenue, at least 25% adjusted EBITDA margin, and 16% plus free cash flow margin in 2028. Now, let me hand the call back over to the operator for David and me to take your questions. Operator?