Earnings Labs

Ziff Davis, Inc. (ZD)

Q3 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 1, 2012

$47.41

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the j2 Global Third Quarter Earnings Call. It is my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Scott Turicchi, President of j2 Global Communications. Thank you, Mr. Turicchi. You may begin.

Robert Scott Turicchi

Management

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, and welcome to our Investor Conference Call for the third quarter 2012. As the operator just mentioned, I'm Scott Turicchi, President of j2 Global, and with me today is Hemi Zucker, our Chief Executive Officer; and Kathy Griggs, our Chief Financial Officer. This has been a very exciting and strong quarter for j2, which both Kathy and Hemi will outline in greater detail. We will discuss the Q3 financial results, as well as provide an update on the business. I would also alert you that our board has approved an increase to quarterly dividend to $0.225 per share. We'll use the corporate presentation for today's call. A copy of that presentation is available at our website. When you launch the webcast, there is a button on the viewer on the right-hand side, which will allow you to expand the slides. I understand that earlier, there were some difficulty with the provider in terms of having that presentation available, so if you cannot access it through our website under the webcast, you can go to the Investor tab and download the document where the investor call presentation is a feature document. Also to receive the press release, if you do not already have access to it, it may be found to our website at j2global.com under the tab, Press. After completing the presentation, we will conduct the Q&A session. At that time, the operator will instruct you regarding the procedures for asking a question. I'll remind you that any time, you may e-mail your questions to investor@j2global.com. Before beginning our prepared remarks, I will read the Safe Harbor language. As you know, this call and the webcast will include forward-looking statements. Such statements may involve risks and uncertainties that would cause actual results to differ materially from the anticipated results. Some of those risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the risk factors that we have disclosed in our various SEC filings, including our 10-K filings, recent 10-Q filings, various proxy statements and 8-K filings, as well as the additional risk factors that we've included as part of the slideshow for the webcast. We refer you to discussions in those documents regarding Safe Harbor language, as well as forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Kathy.

Kathleen M. Griggs

Management

Thank you, Scott. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Please refer to Slide 5 of the presentation for a recap of our Q3 GAAP and non-GAAP operating results, and to the supplemental schedules at the end of the presentation for a reconciliation of all non-GAAP financial measures to their nearest GAAP equivalent. I'm pleased to report yet again that for Q3, we achieved record quarterly revenues. Our revenues worth $93.2 million, the highest quarterly revenues in the company's history. Revenues increased 4.2% over Q2 of 2012 and 8.4% over Q3 of 2011. We achieved $3.6 million in revenue from our patent portfolio, which demonstrates continued success from our intellectual property licensing efforts. We expect our future patent revenues to exceed our past patent revenues, but they will continue to fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. Paid DIDs grew more than $19,000 in the quarter, with corporate fax and voice being the largest contributors. Our cancel rate for the quarter improved again from 2.34% to its record low rate now of 2.28%. ARPU grew to $13.27 for DID this quarter versus $13.19 last quarter. On a non-GAAP basis, our earnings for the quarter were $30.2 million, an increase of $200,000 from Q3 2011. Let me remind you that in Q3, we issued $250 million in senior unsecured notes, and for the quarter, incurred $3.8 million of interest expense compared to only $41,000 in Q3 2011. A full quarter of interest expense, which we will experience in Q4, is $5.1 million before tax. Non-GAAP growth and operating margins were 82.7% and 47.9%, respectively. GAAP earnings for the quarter were $31.7 million. Our operating earnings were $42.3 million. Gross and operating margins were 82.5% and 45.3%, respectively. For Q3 2012, we achieved non-GAAP EPS of $0.65 per diluted share, up $0.01 from $0.64 in Q3 2011. Interest…

Nehemia Zucker

Management

Thank you, Kathy, and good afternoon, everybody. This is an exciting quarter full of records. Let's turn to Page 7 and let's start talking about our cancel rate. This is our lowest cancel rate ever. We are now at the 2.28%. It is an improvement over the last 4 quarters, and it is the third consecutive calendar year over the 3 I've seen the improvement. It's -- a lot of work was put into reducing the churn rate, and I'll try to name some. I'm not sure if DIDs the order of important, but definitely it is a task that involves everybody in the company. The number one reason that I believe it reduce our churn is the quality of our latest sign-ups in customers. We are more focused on getting the highest-quality customers versus quantity. And as you can see, it's also reflected in our marketing expenses as percentage of revenue. They're reducing a little bit while we are getting better churn. Efficiency is key here. The second issue that I believe is a large contribution is our customer support. We are now having all our customers support native speakers. It is impacting both our ability to retain the customers, save the customers and cross and upsell, and I will talk about it shortly. Also, we have done a good job in our billing and finance department in reducing our decline rates. As you know, many of our customers are paying with credit cards, and efficiency on this side of the business is an improvement. Also, we have more corporate customers. They come with contracts and with a longer-term on the business. And we have more cross-sales. We have learned over the past that customers that buy more than one product with us are more loyal, and of course,…

Robert Scott Turicchi

Management

Thank you, Hemi, and I will turn your attentions to Slide 12 to discuss our financial outlook. Before we go to the guidance, though, as was noted, during this quarter, we issued $250 million of bonds. We actually touched on that in the last earnings call. But as part of our presentation going forward, for the benefit of our noteholders, we have noted the important ratios and covenants. So as Kathy mentioned, we have just under $470 million of total cash and investments; $250 million of the 8% notes, so we have $220 million of net excess cash; market capitalization based on yesterday's close of slightly less than $1.4 billion; and I'm very proud that the EBITDA on a trailing 12 basis through the end of 9/30 is now almost $190 million, versus the approximately $180 million we went out and offered the bonds. As a result of that, our 3 key ratios, primarily utilized for the incurrence of future activities is that, one, our restricted payments basket remains, at this time, unlimited as to our ability to pay dividends and repurchase stock. Because our leverage ratio, which is gross debt divided by the trailing 12 EBITDA, remains comfortably under the 1.75 ratio, it is currently at 1.32. Our ability to incur additional indebtedment [ph] also remains at a very comfortable level, as our coverage of interest is in excess of 9x and we are permitted to incur additional debt as long as our ratio is in excess of 2x. And as long as we're greater than 2x on the leverage ratio, we can also lien that debt. So all of the -- from the borrower's perspective, all of the covenants have only improved since we issued the bonds approximately 12 weeks ago. Now in terms of the guidance. With…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Shyam Patil with Raymond James & Associates. Shyam Patil - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: First question. Just on the patent revenue, how should we be thinking about modeling that maybe on a quarterly basis going forward, given that it is lumpy? Is there maybe a safer range that you think is kind of a better first to use?

Nehemia Zucker

Management

It's very tricky. We have pipeline of various procedures, various stages. The settlement is very hard to predict. We do believe that 50 over 4 years is good. We -- you can be -- maybe you can assume $12 million a year. But more than that, I think would be risky to predict.

Robert Scott Turicchi

Management

And I think in the near-term, I would look at the current quarter as being outstanding, but I would certainly not predict to replicate it in the succeeding quarter, meaning Q4. And I think I would take it back down the levels that you saw earlier this year. But having said that, there are obviously 8 weeks to go in the year. A lot can happen, which is not even totally known to us.

Nehemia Zucker

Management

Yes. Also because they are big, it's not like when you work with a lot of small numbers, you can calculate it and spread it over time, but some of them are big, and when they happen they kind of put the quarter in a certain direction. Shyam Patil - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: Got it. And then, Scott, could you talk a little bit about just the M&A pipeline, particularly around large opportunities. And then as a follow up to that, when we look at the areas that you are currently in, are there any that you don't think are likely for -- where we're likely to see a large acquisition in the near-term?

Robert Scott Turicchi

Management

Sure. First of all, I think that since we raised the bond offering, we, from an M&A perspective, have put increased attention on trying to do what, for us, would be larger-sized deals. And I think for those that are -- have not been part of this conversation for a number of quarters, we're talking about revenue -- acquired revenue between $50 million and, say, $100 million. There might be a little higher, it might be a little lower, but in that ilk of range where we -- it would be a meaningful deal for j2 to bring it in-house. I think in terms of -- so that's kind of the background. So we put intense focus on that over the last 10 to 12 weeks, although we actually had our sights on some situations prior for raising the bond offering, but nothing was imminent. Nothing still may be imminent. However, we have seen that pipeline grow both domestically, and there are even international opportunities as well. I think in terms of what you're not likely to see it occur in is, number one, the Fax category. Not that we wouldn't do additional deals in Fax, but to the best of our knowledge, there really aren't ideals that meet the criteria that I just mentioned available, both because there's almost no one left in terms of size that meets that criteria, or they are part of larger entities that are probably not going to sever that piece of their business. And it's also not likely to occur at this point in the CRM space. As you know, we acquired assets in the CRM space early this year in late January, and I think we said consistently over the course of this year that it's in an incubation mode under our…

Nehemia Zucker

Management

Yes. So Japan, our forecast for the year was in the high teens -- yes, customers, yes. I'm supposed to go there next month. I believe we will be able to be at a level of 20,000 customers, which is above our original forecast either in December or beginning of January. We are adding area codes, and we find out that the more area codes, the more they like it. We have now started to engage with some major-league resellers. The Japanese market is conservative. They want you to show what you can do before they engage. So we have high hopes and all the signs that we got so far are positive and they are all -- I think I mentioned, but I don't mind to mention it again, in Japan, we have the lowest churn we have ever seen and the highest ARPU, meaning revenue per month. As we see, the cost per acquisition is still high, but it's coming down all the time. We even tried TV advertising, which we actually never did in the U.S. as a test. And everything looks good. I'm just am afraid to be too optimistic about the speed of the growth, but I have no doubt that it's growing and it's going to be big.

Robert Scott Turicchi

Management

But it doubled. It looks -- it's on the pace to double this year.

Nehemia Zucker

Management

Yes, yes.

Robert Scott Turicchi

Management

Within this calendar year.

Nehemia Zucker

Management

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of James Breen with William Blair & Associates. James D. Breen - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Great. Can you talk a little about the geographic diversity business? Are you seeing different trends in different markets? And then also, with respect to churn, it's very good this quarter. Do you think it can stay low, get lower, and what's driving that lower churn?

Nehemia Zucker

Management

Okay. So regarding the regions of the world, I think that we are coming close to see Australia and New Zealand being the size of Europe. Our -- the economy -- the worst economy of our business is in Europe, but they are still growing. Our U.S. market, as you know, is the majority of the business. We are doing well in Canada, and...

Robert Scott Turicchi

Management

Japan. [indiscernible].

Nehemia Zucker

Management

And in Japan, yes. So I think that -- most likely, the fastest growth in the next year will be down under -- Japan, Australia, New Zealand. It's too early to turn my statement into something that is for sure, for sure. But if I have to get -- this is where we will see the largest international penetration from the standpoint of large opportunities that we can do with M&A when we are going to do a large deal there in the U.S. The largest competitors, the largest opportunities are in the U.S. But we believe that we can do relatively larger than ever deals in that part of the world [ph], yes. Now about the churn, I kind of covered it, but I will be happy to -- the lowest you go, the hardest it is to improve it. There is no such thing as negative churn. So at 2.28%, I can tell you, I believe and hope that we can do some improvement, but I will be very pleased if we can just maintain it. As we have more larger customers, corporate, they help, because the corporate churn rate is less than 2%, but the average of everything is above 2%. And the beauty of the churn is that it adds a lot of money to the bottom line, as you know. If you have a specific question, I will be happy to answer that. But I think in general that this is what I can say, James. James D. Breen - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: So do you think that the churn is coming down as a result of the size of the customers you're winning, as well as existing customers taking more services?

Nehemia Zucker

Management

Yes. I think that -- it's not so measurable, so I'm just telling you things on metrics -- they're based on metrics that I see. The more cross-sell, the more loyalty. The more corporate, the more loyalty. Better job of decline, better. Not trying to take the edgy customers that you have to give them 6 months to -- free to try. You get a higher customer. Customers that come through searching the word eFax are better than customers resulting [ph] the -- that are looking for the word fax machine. So all those things that I can see on the activity are indicative of things that increase or -- sorry, improve the churn. And also, as I mentioned before, I believe that our customer support are doing terrific job in -- we have recently -- after the acquisition of Protus, we have basically took their customer support out of Ottawa and actually added people there, and they are doing terrific job. I think that staying at the 2.2% range, 2.3% range will be a huge achievement. If we could do that, I'll be very happy.

Robert Scott Turicchi

Management

Yes, I would just like to add a comment, that if you recall, for a number of years, and I think we've been reporting this cancel rate for in excess of a decade, 2.5% to 2.75% per month has been considered within a normal range of cancel, and the exceptions of that have been the 3 times that prices were raised and, of course, the recession. So I would agree with Hemi that if on a annual basis the cancel rate can move down 25 basis points in terms of its range to 2.25% to 2.5%, that would at least, as a first step, be a big achievement.

Nehemia Zucker

Management

And also, James, you have to note that at the same time, the ARPU went up. So it's much harder to have the prices inching up while the churn goes down. So this is a unique one. James D. Breen - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Okay. And then just one follow-up, Scott, on the M&A side. You talked about sort of the size of revenue you'd like to acquire and some of the spaces. Just any color you can give on the thought about the types of targets. Is it targets that would drive higher ARPU or drive more customers?

Robert Scott Turicchi

Management

I think -- well, they would all drive -- they would all be customer-focused. Some of them would lend themselves over time to cross-selling. So the nature of the services would permit a cross-sell. And to the extent the bases are different in customers and there's not a high degree of overlap, you could have cross-sells going in both directions. Some of them would be more from a consolidation and synergistic play, and some would be adding new areas to j2. So we're-- as I mentioned earlier, we're looking very broadly at a wide array of opportunities. I think the key thing to understand, and you probably know this about j2, we're looking to put our money to work to make the good return. That is really, as we talked about in M&A all along, it's really what is the invested capital and what is the expected return of that invested capital. That is our primary marker. When we look at M&A -- and as I say, we look sometimes right down the middle in terms of things we're already doing that can be consolidation plays, and sometimes, we look 1 or 2 degrees to the right or to the left.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Murphy with Piper Jaffray.

Pinjalim Bora - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division

Analyst · Piper Jaffray.

This is Pinjalim for Mark. Could you please remind us what's the organic net new DID addition for this quarter. Did Zintel contribute anything?

Robert Scott Turicchi

Management

A little bit. It wasn't much. So the $19,000, I would say, 2/3.

Nehemia Zucker

Management

More organic. We did the acquisition of Zintel New Zealand, but they have larger customers, so the DID count is not so high but the ARPU is high. So some of it [ph] closer -- but if I -- and we didn't measure it, sorry, so otherwise, we would give you the number. But I'd say that, the $19,000, $15,000 or more organic, but this is just an estimate. We don't -- we didn't try to look at it that way.

Pinjalim Bora - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division

Analyst · Piper Jaffray.

Okay. And well, how should we think about modeling ARPU going forward since Zintel Australia as well as New Zealand is in the mix now? Going through 2013, how should we think about it?

Nehemia Zucker

Management

I think that the main event will be the currency fluctuation, to be honest, because between Japan, Down Under, Canada, the U.S. dollar versus the currency, I think, will be the first influencer, then the mix. Because the -- we're not trying to drive higher ARPU. We're trying to get more relationships. So I don't know yet, but I think that $1 out, $1 down is the maximum. But I don't know.

Robert Scott Turicchi

Management

Yes, I would say, you froze the business today and did no more M&A, that -- and Kathy highlighted this, if incremental or -- we'll call it the organic gross adds, come from Corporate Fax and Voice, they have usually a lower ARPU than the $13.27. So I would expect, as has been the case for a number of years, that they will continue to be subject to currency fluctuations and of course, we're not a static business in terms of the M&A, a downward bias on that aggregate metric of ARPU. Now I have actually, I think, encouraged some of you to do this, to go back to 2007 when we had a peak ARPU of in excess of $17 a month and to look at the ARPU trends over the last, now 5 years, and sort of fit a regression line to it. And my recollection is that on average, there's like a 4% to 5% decline, although per year in the ARPU, but it will vary based upon the currencies, based upon the pace of M&A, but based upon the type of M&A that's being acquired. But in general, the corporate business, Fax and Voice, and the Voice business in its entirety with some corner case exemptions have lower ARPU than $13.27 a DID, so it tells me there's downward pressure. Remember, there will be definitely downward pressure in Q4 because of the 5 business days that are missing and call it the $1.35 million variable revenue that comes out of the equation. That is almost $0.20 a month, maybe $0.25 a month in ARPU just in -- for Q4 alone, and then of course, that reverses out by Q2 of next year.

Nehemia Zucker

Management

And this quarter's $13.27 is exactly the same as Q3 last year. So it goes up and it goes down. I think that what helped us is, as I said, the Japanese yen is putting up a small -- what we just said about 2 deals, Zintel, they have higher ARPUs. But it's very hard to guess. I think as Scott said, we are growing in Voice, we are growing on Corporate. On the other hand, the dollar versus the other currencies is also an impact, and...

Robert Scott Turicchi

Management

Those are all pieces.

Nehemia Zucker

Management

Yes.

Pinjalim Bora - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division

Analyst · Piper Jaffray.

Okay. All right. Last one for me. I recently saw that you launched a channel partner program associated with the online backup business. I'm not sure if you already have a channel partner program for the core Fax business, but is this is something that you're looking at kind of to increase distribution of other products, as well?

Nehemia Zucker

Management

We have, over the years, tried, and nothing worked for us, but in the cloud, we have done some acquisitions when they had partnerships and resellers that worked, so we kept them. And we had a small one in the Voice and a small one in the Fax that are working well. They are unique companies that are not -- while they do nice business with us, they are not moving the needle for us. So to say, it depends on the geography. For instance, in the U.K., resellers are much more common in the U.S. And I don't think that j2 is standing in front of a huge change. We're always trying. And of course, if it's successful, we'll do more. But still 90%, I don't know, 89% of our business is sold directly.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Greg Burns with Sidoti & Company. Gregory Burns - Sidoti & Company, LLC: Just a quick question on the cross-selling opportunities. What's your highlight in today's presentation? Are those mainly cross-sells between Fax and Voice, or other -- are your other services included in that? And then also, what kind of investments do you still need to make, and when do you think you'll have the people and system in place to be at scale in terms of your ability to upsell?

Nehemia Zucker

Management

Okay, Greg. So yes, most of the cross-sales are -- the nature of it -- we have most -- a lot of Fax customers, and we convince them to buy Voice products. We have some other directions, but this is the most, as you predicted. There are several companies out there that are providing services for those type of opportunities. What they do is they take all your databases from all your -- yes, customers, all your product, plus everything that you have running -- your CRM, plus everything that you're running. Any system that you think is indicative, they do what some people call, like Big Data. And they try to help us to predict, based on usage, based on where they come from the website, based on many, many things, including fixer and everything, what is the best offer and the best time we invested in the system. Those systems cost a few hundred thousand dollars a year. But the core thing is how to implement them. So we already made a purchase, we have already the system. Now, we are starting to implement them. I want strongly that something will already -- they will have something to show by the end of this quarter. It will be period of time that we will train -- the system is as good as the drivers are. So we are already contracted with what we think is the leading company in this space. Now, we are installing it and basically, tying it to all the data sources. It's a trial and error, but those guys that sold us are a relatively known new public company that does a lot of businesses with companies like us based on this product. So we are -- we believe that because everybody else is successful and they are successful growing company, we'll be as successful. So I believe that we will see the fruits of it start in Q1, Q2 next year. We'll start on domestic market. We'll start on our mainstream product as -- and then move as fast as possible based on the results.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to management for closing comments.

Robert Scott Turicchi

Management

Okay. Thank you, very much. We appreciate your time today to listen to our Q3 earnings call and ask questions. There was going to be a couple of upcoming conferences in New York that we were going to be attending, but due to the situation with the weather, one of them has been canceled. So look for press releases to see what our attendance will be in terms of any conferences between now and the end of the year. We obviously do encourage you, though, to call or e-mail us with additional follow-up questions. And undoubtedly, we will be on the road, in a non-deal road show context also to reach out to investors in various cities. And then, we would look forward to talking to you again for our Q4 earnings call which, although not specifically scheduled is likely to be in mid-February of 2013. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.