Operator
Operator
Good morning. My name is Shelby, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Yum! Brands Q1 2018 First Quarter Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Keith Siegner, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead, sir. Keith R. Siegner - Yum! Brands, Inc.: Thank you, Shelby. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. On our call today are: Greg Creed, our CEO; David Gibbs, our President and CFO; and Dave Russell, our Senior Vice President and Corporate Controller. Following remarks from Greg and David, we'll open the call to questions. Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that this conference call includes forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to future events and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements. All forward-looking statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statements in our earnings release and the risk factors included in our filings with the SEC. In addition, please refer to the Investors section of the Yum! Brands' website, www.yum.com, to find disclosures and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures that may be used on today's call. Please note the following regarding our basis of presentation for today's call. First, system sales results exclude the impact of foreign currency. Second, core operating profit growth figures exclude the impact of foreign currency and special items. And third, the revenue recognition accounting standard was prospectively adopted on January 1. As a reminder, this is a GAAP required change adjusting the timing of recognition of upfront fees received from and incentive payments made to franchisees, the effect of which have no impact on cash. In addition, it requires the gross-up of advertising fund revenues and offsetting expenses within our income statement. We're broadcasting this conference call via our website. This call is also being recorded and will be available for playback. Please be advised that if you ask a question, it will be included in both our live conference and in any future use of the recording. We'd like to make you aware of the following changes in upcoming Yum! investor events. Disclosures pertaining to outstanding debt in our Restricted Group capital structure will be provided at the time of the first quarter Form 10-Q filing. Second quarter earnings will be released on August 2, with the conference call on the same day. The remainder of our 2018 key earnings dates are available on the website. Artie Starrs, Pizza Hut U.S. President, will be presenting on June 20 at the Oppenheimer 18th Annual Consumer Conference in Boston, Massachusetts. And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Greg Creed. Greg Creed - Yum! Brands, Inc.: Thank you, Keith, and good morning, everyone. Yum! Brands delivered first quarter system sales growth of 4% in constant currency, including 1% same-store sales growth and 3% net new unit growth. Consistent with our expectations, core operating profit growth for the first quarter was flat, and we are maintaining all aspects of our full year 2018 guidance. As a reminder, our full year core operating profit guidance of approximately flat includes 6 to 7 percentage points of headwind from the timing impact of refranchising and associated G&A savings, along with 2 to 3 percentage points of headwind from the revenue recognition accounting standard. Regarding our transformation initiatives, this quarter marks the start of the second full year of our transformation journey. And I am pleased to report we remain on track with our efforts to ensure Yum! is a more focused, more franchised and more efficient company. We've discussed that part of this transformation journey is to accelerate growth by focusing on four key drivers: distinctive, relevant and easy brands; unmatched franchise operating capability; bold restaurant developments; and unrivaled culture and talent. I'll talk to you about distinctive, relevant and easy brand and unrivaled culture and talent. Then David will follow up with unmatched franchise operating capability and bold restaurant development. I'll begin with some examples of how our brands are becoming more distinctive, relevant and easy. At KFC, system sales grew 6% with same-store sales growth of 2% and net new unit growth of 4%. Internationally, same-store sales grew 2%. The executive leadership team and I recently traveled to Russia and Turkey. And I was impressed with the strong leadership and powerful in-store culture in both countries. Turkey, with first quarter same-store sales growth of 10% and a two year stack of 27%, has embraced the idea of building sales overnight and brand over time by going back to the basics and executing them well. Our local franchisees have invested in their team members, ensuring they are properly trained and designed the menu to drive velocity around core menu items. Turkey also has had some great new unit growth, opening 23 gross units over the last 12 months. In India, first quarter same-store sales growth grew 10%, marking their eighth consecutive quarter of same-store sales growth. India's success is supported by their focus on three key occasions: snacking; weekend groups; and delivery. In addition, by using both digital and TV to advertise value, the market has grown transactions. And like Turkey, India has also growth their assets base, opening 50 gross new units over the last 12 months. These two markets are examples of why we continue to believe KFC has significant runway for growth. In the U.S., with flat same-store sales growth in the first quarter, our first female Colonel, Reba McEntire, introduced consumers to Smoky Mountain Barbecue, an innovative flavor profile added to our extra crispy chicken. The innovation has continued into the second quarter with the launch of our new sandwich platform, the Crispy Colonel, which gives customers the option of enjoying a classic version of the sandwich or adding our delicious flavor profiles including Nashville Hot, Georgia Gold and Smoky Mountain Barbecue to the Extra Crispy fillet. We are excited about these new and innovative offerings and believe they are what we need to successfully sustain our long-term momentum and drive this business forward. Before I wrap-up KFC, I want to address our UK business, which suffered a setback this quarter as a result of disruptions in supply when we changed distribution partners. Despite the challenges, the team worked with our new partners, leveraged our culture and rose to the occasion, truly all hands on deck, working around the clock and countless hours to correct the issue, even responding with clever advertising in the brand's unique voice. I would like to take a second to say thank you to our franchisees and our local team, as our progress to-date could not have been accomplished without their collaborative spirit and hard work. Encouragingly, the customers are responding to our efforts in a very positive manner. As of today, all 871 restaurants are open for their normal hours. Approximately one-third of the restaurants are up and running with the former supplier and the remaining two-thirds of the restaurants are successfully receiving product from the new supplier. As we recover from the incident, clearly, we are applying our lessons learned to ensure this does not happen anywhere else in the world. Now to Pizza Hut, in the U.S., system sales grew 2%, with same-store sales growth of 4%. While net new units declined 2% compared to prior year, encouragingly, unit development was flat sequentially. Consistent with what I've said before, the turnaround of the brand in the U.S. will be a gradual build. However, we continue to see positive momentum as a result of the Transformation Agreement and focus on being hot, fast and reliable. Our investment in digital, operations, advertising and delivery drivers, is paying off with improvements in internal operating metrics, including online conversion and delivery times. In February, we announced we are now the official sponsor of the NFL and we are proud of the way the team has kicked off this partnership at last week's draft. In tandem with being the official sponsor of the NCAA, Pizza Hut now owns the full weekend from Thursday to Monday, providing us even more opportunity to put the fan at the center of everything we are doing. At Pizza Hut International, system sales grew 2% as a result of continued strong net new unit growth of 5%. Our solid unit growth has resulted from the benefit of the division realignment we undertook several years ago, resulting in dedicated brand leadership teams as well as new partners who possess our three Cs of a healthy franchisee, being capable, capitalized and committed. For these reasons, we remain confident unit growth will sustain a healthy rate. That said, Pizza Hut is a global iconic brand, and the recent same-store sales results are simply not acceptable. While we are seeing pockets of strength, such as seven consecutive quarters of same-store sales growth in India, we understand we have a lot of work to do to turn sales around. Specifically, we are taking the following three steps in each of our markets. First is ensuring we have strong operations and digital execution in place to deliver on speed, taste and ease. Second is making sure we are offering compelling value. And third is consistent communication of our For The Love of Pizza brand positioning. We are diligently working to implement these steps at each of our international markets and will update you as we progress. Now to Taco Bell, where system sales grew 4%, with 1% same-store sales growth and 4% net new unit growth. In the U.S., we successfully lapped an 8% same-store sales growth in the first quarter of last year, due in large part to the very successful launch of Nacho Fries. Everything about this product was innovative, from the Web of Fries faux movie trailer to the Mexican seasoning and Nacho Cheese sauce. Even better, customers could enjoy our praiseworthy Nacho Fries for only $1. Selling more than 53 million orders in the first five weeks, Fries were part of one of every four customer's orders. And as a result of this success, we extended their limited-time offering into April. Following Fries in the second quarter is the $1 Triple Melt Burrito and Nachos, featuring our seasoned beef alongside melted cheddar, mozzarella and pepper jack cheese, wrapped in a warm flour tortilla or over crispy nachos. These products are another example of delivering value without compromise, a delicious offering for only $1. Internationally, we are seeing great momentum and are on plan to set a record for the number of net new unit openings. I recently visited my hometown of Brisbane, also home to the first Taco Bell in Australia, and I'm excited to see the restaurant is off to a flying start. The franchisee is very encouraged by this success and is planning to aggressively expand in the country, making Australia a market to watch for future growth. In addition, we continue to see success in our other priority markets through rapid expansion in Brazil, innovative menu items in Canada and the launch of U.S. innovations in India. And we are wrapping up our first international owners forum in the UK, bringing together global Taco Bell leadership and franchisees to share best practices from across the world, leveraging our scale. I'm excited for the potential of this brand internationally and know we are taking the right steps to move the brand forward. Lastly, as part of making our brands distinctive, relevant and easy, I'd like to provide you with an update on our partnership with Grubhub. We remain very enthusiastic about our opportunity with Grubhub. And I'm even more pleased that our franchisees are fully supportive and excited about their potential with delivery through Grubhub. One of the unique aspects of the agreement is to have the POS at all KFC and Taco Bell restaurants fully integrated with Grubhub, which will significantly aid the accuracy of the order and the speed of delivery. As our teams work to complete this integration, we are testing with Grubhub in a few select KFC and Taco Bell markets and are encouraged by initial results. We look forward to updating you more as the integration is completed and Grubhub is available nationwide. Now, moving on to unrivaled culture and talent, I strongly believe that our unrivaled culture and talent fuels our results, that our employees must reflect the global marketplace where we operate. That's why we've made a commitment to advance more women into leadership and achieve greater gender parity in senior leadership globally by 2030. This new commitment aligns with the Paradigm for Parity coalition, a movement of Fortune 500 CEOs, senior business leaders and academics who are committed to achieving a new norm in corporate leadership, one in which women and men have equal power, status and opportunity. It also builds upon Yum! Brands becoming one of more than 100 companies in 10 sectors named to the inaugural 2018 Bloomberg Gender-Equality Index, where Yum! was recognized and measured for gender equality across internal company statistics, employee policies, external community support and engagement, and gender-conscious product offerings. I'm very proud of our initiatives around a diverse and inclusive work environment and know this enhances Yum! as a great place to work. In summary, the second full year of our transformation journey is well underway. And I'm pleased with our progress towards delivering A World with More Yum! I remain confident in our four growth drivers as we lay the foundation for long-term growth that results in increased returns for our shareholders. And now, it gives me great pleasure to introduce our President and Chief Financial Officer, David Gibbs. David W. Gibbs - Yum! Brands, Inc.: Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will discuss: our first quarter results; progress towards our transformation initiatives; and two of our four growth capabilities, bold restaurant development and unmatched franchise operating capabilities. To begin, our first quarter results, consistent with our expectations, core operating profit growth was flat as a result of headwinds related to the timing mismatch between refranchising and the associated G&A savings and the revenue recognition accounting standard. As Greg mentioned, we remain confident in achieving all aspects of our full year 2018 guidance. This includes approximately flat core operating profit growth, which incorporates headwinds of 6 to 7 percentage points related to the timing mismatch between refranchising and the associated G&A savings, and 2 to 3 percentage points related to the revenue recognition accounting standard. To clarify, the level of unit openings is typically higher in the fourth quarter. And as a result, we anticipate the impact of the revenue recognition accounting standard to be more heavily weighted towards the fourth quarter. First quarter EPS, excluding Special Items, was $0.90, an increase of $0.25. Included in this is $0.16 related to our recently-closed investment in Grubhub. Accounting rules require that we begin reflecting the change in fair value of this investment beginning in the quarter of the deal announcement. And, as a result, we booked $66 million of pre-tax investment income in the first quarter. Note that our commitment to at least $3.75 in 2019 EPS was made prior to the Grubhub investment and our target will continue to exclude any impact to EPS as a result of our quarterly mark-to-market adjustments. Also impacting our first quarter EPS was our effective tax rate excluding Special Items of 14%. This was lower than our expected rate for the full year due to the timing of stock option exercises. First quarter same-store sales growth of 1% at Yum! and 2% at KFC were impacted by the supply interruptions in our KFC UK business. Adjusting for the impact of this, we estimate Yum!'s same-store sales growth would have been 2% and KFC's same-store sales growth would have been 3%. Additionally, we estimate an approximately 3% impact to Yum!'s core operating profit and an approximately 5% impact to KFC's core operating profit in the first quarter. As Greg mentioned, our local management team and franchisees collaborated and worked tirelessly to get us back on track. And our customers are responding positively as the business continues to recover. The impact of full-year same-store sales growth is estimated to be 50 basis points for KFC and 25 basis points for Yum! The impact to full-year core operating profit growth is estimated to be 2% for KFC and 1% for Yum! While this is a significant event for our UK market and we are collaborating with our franchise partners to ensure they are set up for success, the limited impact to Yum! demonstrates the power of the franchise model diversified across brands and geographies. As such, we are maintaining our full year guidance, despite the UK supply disruption. Now, turning to our transformation initiatives, where we remain on track to deliver the key components of our strategy of: at least 98% franchise mix; approximately $100 million in run rate CapEx in 2019; reducing G&A to 1.7% of system sales; and 2019 EPS of at least $3.75. On our journey to achieving at least 98% franchise mix by the end of this year, we refranchised 144 units during the first quarter, including 52 KFC, 43 Pizza Hut and 49 Taco Bell restaurants for current franchise mix of 97% and pre-tax proceeds of $205 million. As part of our commitment to return capital to shareholders, we repurchased 6.5 million shares for $528 million at an average price of $81. Further, we paid $120 million in dividends at $0.36 per share. Total capital returned was $647 million during the first quarter and nearly $3 billion since the beginning of 2017. We remain committed to returning between $6.5 billion and $7 billion from 2017 to 2019. I'm also excited to share some good news regarding the financial markets' continued support of our business transformations and capital market strategies. In April, we successfully re-priced our $1.97 billion Term Loan B, which reduces the interest rate by 25 basis points to LIBOR plus 1.75% and is expected to reduce annual cash interest by approximately $5 million. I'm pleased with the enhancements we are making to our capital structure to further support our target of 5 times EBITDA leverage. Next, I'd like to discuss two of our four key growth drivers. First, bold restaurant development; at KFC in the U.S., we have remodeled nearly 1,000 restaurants over the last two years, or approximately 25% of the asset base, and remain on pace to make the new American Showman the most prevalent image for KFC in the U.S. by the end of the year. At Pizza Hut International, we achieved strong net new unit growth of 5%, as Greg previously mentioned. At Pizza Hut U.S., we had flat unit development during the quarter, as we improve on our last three years of unit decline. Taco Bell continues to grow their units through new asset formats, including the urban walk-in asset and the cantina subset of this, which serves alcohol. The most recent opening in Brooklyn represents our 24th urban walk-in asset and we are excited to see franchisees investing in this asset format. Internationally, Taco Bell opened 11 units this quarter in markets such as Latin America, Japan and the UK. All-in, during the first quarter, we opened 500 gross units and 239 net new units, representing a step-up in development from our recent historical rates in the first quarter. We are on track for 2018 to be the third consecutive year with a significant ramp-up in the pace of development. We have a growth mindset and are confident there is significant white space for each of our brands through new asset formats in the U.S. and untapped geographies internationally, which will drive net new unit growth over the long-term. Our next growth driver is unmatched franchise operating capability. Greg and I recently attended the KFC U.S. Franchise Convention and could feel the sense of pride these franchisees have for their restaurants. They are the ones making the culture come alive in their restaurants. And it is this culture which translates into a positive customer experience and fuels our results. In our Pizza Hut U.S. business, nearly 2,000 stores have changed hands in the last 18 months. This means over one-third of the U.S. traditional restaurants are under new leadership, possessing the three Cs of being a Yum! Franchisee: capable, capitalized and committed. We are confident that, in conjunction with our existing franchisees, we have leaders that are capable of running great restaurants, capitalized to ensure the brand grows, and committed to the brand's strategic objectives. Last quarter, I highlighted the operational improvements at Taco Bell during our highest growing daypart, after 5:00 p.m. And I'm pleased that customer satisfaction scores further improved over the last quarter, while maintaining speed during the launch of Nacho Fries. To continue the momentum through summer, Taco Bell has developed a unique after dark program focused on fostering a culture of speed while maximizing satisfaction and delivering world-class service, targeting dinner and late-night peaks. In conclusion, we are pleased with our first quarter results and the progress we continue to make on implementing our strategic transformation. First quarter underlying base operating profit was solid and core operating profit adjusted for the timing mismatch between refranchising and associated G&A savings and the revenue recognition accounting standard, was as expected. I'm confident we are taking the right steps to optimize shareholder value and our disciplined decisions will set us up for strength in the near and long-term. Now, the team and I are happy to take your questions.