Operator
Operator
Good morning. My name is Amy, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Yum! Brands' First Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Thank you. Steve Schmitt, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy, you may begin your conference. Steve Schmitt - VP-Investor Relations & Corporate Strategy: Thanks, Amy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. On our call today are Greg Creed, our CEO; and Dave Russell, our Interim CFO. Also on today's call is Larry Gathof, Yum!'s Treasurer, and we're very pleased to have Micky Pant, Yum! China CEO on our call as well. Following remarks from Greg and Dave, we'll open the call to questions from the entire team. Please keep in mind, Micky is dialing in from Shanghai, so there could be a slight delay in some of his responses. Before we get started, I would like to remind you that this conference call includes forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to future events and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements. All forward-looking statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statements in our earnings release and the risk factors included in our filings with the SEC. In addition, please refer to the Investors section of the Yum! Brands website, www.yum.com to find disclosures and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures that may be used on today's call. We are broadcasting this conference call via our website. This call is also being recorded and will be available for playback. Please be advised that if you ask a question, it will be included in both our live conference and in any future use of the recording. We would like to make you aware of the following upcoming Yum! Investor Event, our second quarter 2016 earnings will be released on Wednesday, July 13. Now, before I turn the call over to Greg, I would like to bring your attention to two items you may have noticed in yesterday's release. First is new terminology, we reported core operating profit growth of 21% for the first quarter of 2016. Core operating profit growth is our operating profit growth year-over-year, excluding foreign currency translation and special items. Second, as previously announced, effective January of this year, the company's India business integrated its three brands into our global brand divisions. Prior year figures have been restated in the release. Now, it's my pleasure to hand the call over to Mr. Greg Creed. Greg Creed - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased we're off to a strong start in 2016, with better than expected core operating profit growth of 21% in the first quarter. This includes 42% growth in our China business due to outstanding Chinese New Year results at KFC, underscoring the power of the KFC brand in China when we deliver insight-driven marketing that resonates with our customers. Company-wide, all four of our divisions posted positive same-store sales and operating profit growth in constant currency. Furthermore, we are on track to finalize the spin-off of our China business by year end, creating two powerful independent, focused growth companies. As you saw in our release, we're raising full year core operating profit growth guidance for Yum! Brands to 12% from 10% previously. Even though it is still early in the year, we are confident about the revised guidance, and will update you as the year progresses. Today, I'll give you an overview of each of our operating divisions, and then Dave Russell, our Interim CFO, will walk you through the financials. So first China. For the China Division, same store sales grew 6%, led by 12% same-store sales growth at KFC. Our KFC business, as a reminder, represents about 75% of our operating profit in China. We saw particular success at KFC during the Chinese New Year with Bucket Meals, which we tailored across four customer groups, ranging from kid's buckets to larger group meals. As a result, buckets mix had a much higher percentage than normally. This lifted average ticket as we focused more on group occasions. And we gained even more consumer insights this year, which will help our business both going forward as well as next New Year. Pizza Hut Casual Dining, which represents about 25% of our operating profit in China, remained challenging. System sales declined 1%, and same-store sales declined 12% in the quarter. A tough macro environment and competitive landscape continued to weigh on performance. We're addressing this with urgency, but realize a recovery will take time. So wrapping up on China, we're pleased with our first quarter's overall operating profit growth, which came in well ahead of our expectations. The strong margin performance reinforces our confidence in the future earnings power of this business. When we generate sales growth, profit flow-through is impressive. As Steve mentioned, Micky Pant, our China Division CEO, is on the call today and will be happy to assist in answering questions you may have on the China business. Now, turning to our three global brand divisions. In our KFC Division, same-store sales grew 1% in the first quarter or 5% on a two-year stack. Operating profit grew 7% in constant currency when adjusting for incremental advertising spend in the U.S. The division opened 79 new international restaurants in 32 countries. 77% of these units were opened by franchisees, and 71% of our new international openings were in emerging markets. I'm encouraged by our ability to generate growth in both emerging and developed markets. System sales and international developed markets grew 5% and international emerging markets grew 8%. I recently visited with the team in Canada and was thrilled to see the assets being upgraded and the marketing position around Always Original. With 6% same-store sales growth in the quarter, I would say it's working. I'm also pleased to see success in emerging markets, which are a key contributor to KFC's growth story. KFC is a franchise-led emerging powerhouse, and I'm confident the brand is getting even stronger and will produce strong growth this year and for many years to come. Pizza Hut grew same-store sales 3% in the quarter, and was led by 5% same-store sales growth in the U.S., which makes up approximately 60% of total sales. Our $5 Flavor Menu helped drive system transactions, with company stores leading the way, up 8% in the quarter. Our discipline around making it easier to get a better pizza is holistic and driving traffic. We are focused on the entire customer experience, from ordering, payment and delivery tracking, to our assets and menu. And I believe this quarter's results are further testament to our maniacal emphasis on this way of thinking. We are on track to replace over 1,300 U.S. ovens in 2016. For those stores replacing older ovens, this should result in average energy savings of 25% in ongoing operational costs and a faster cook time. From a marketing calendar perspective, we are focusing on balancing premium price innovation, such as Stuffed Garlic Knots Pizza to protect and improve unit level economics with compelling value offerings such as our ongoing $6.99 Any Pairs deal. All of this will enable us to provide our customers with a better pizza at great value. Our international business at Pizza Hut saw systems sales growth of 3% in constant currency and a 1% decline in same-store sales in the quarter. Sales were especially strong in Latin America and Canada but offset by weaknesses in Korea, Australia, and India. We are committed to offering consistent everyday value to our customers, and will leverage proven value strategies across markets with similar characteristics. We have high expectations for the international Pizza Hut business. Over the last five years, we have opened 1,200 international restaurants, and we will continue to grow this business over time. The bottom line is that we have established solid momentum with our strategy in the U.S., especially around the $5 Flavor Menu. And as we roll this overall strategy out internationally, we hope to achieve similar success. Now, turning to Taco Bell, same-store sales grew 1%, lapping 6% growth a year ago, and operating profit grew 4% in the quarter. Restaurant margins were an impressive 21%. While 1% same-store sales growth is not what we're used to seeing at Taco Bell, the timing of our key launches had an impact on same-store sales growth for the quarter. The Quesalupa, which launched in February, makes it almost 10% and drove a meaningful lift in transactions. We also launched our $1 breakfast menu in March. The $1 price point is consistent with Taco Bell's reputation as the value leader in QSR. Taco Bell's new breakfast $1 Value Menu differentiates itself from the competitors and puts it at the forefront of value in a growing daypart. We now have 10 $1 items on the breakfast menu, and are seeing breakfast sales hold at 8% and transaction growth accelerating. The Taco Bell team is exhibiting great flexibility to read and react to the competitive value pressures, and adjusted their 2016 promotional calendar accordingly to highlight even more value. Insight-driven innovation, cravable food, and breakthrough value such as the upcoming launches of the $1 Beefy Crunch Burrito and steak value later this year, should boost sales and further the brand's momentum. So, we're off to a great start at Yum! Over the past several quarters, we have really had three businesses that needed dramatic improvement: KFC China, Pizza Hut China, and Pizza Hut U.S. I'm pleased that we have been able to turn two out of these three businesses, as KFC China and Pizza Hut U.S. are on more solid footing. Now, let's be clear, we're not out of the woods on these businesses, but we've made a lot of progress and will continue to focus on delivering better results. As you heard me say before, this is a transformational year for Yum! as we finalize the spin-off of our China business, creating two powerful, independent focus growth companies. Our brand strength, unwavering focus on the customer, and innovative food offerings driven by consumer insights will allow us to grow Yum! into an even better global company. This is an exciting time and pivotal time for our company, and I look forward to what the future holds. And with that, I'll hand the call over to Dave. David Eric Russell - Interim CFO, Vice President-Finance & Corporate Controller: Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. In my remarks today, I'll cover three areas: our first quarter results, our outlook for 2016, and an update on our planned recapitalization and a spin-off of our China business. As Greg mentioned, we are very pleased with our strong first quarter results where core operating profit increased 21%. EPS before special items grew 19%, including a five-point negative impact from foreign currency. These results were led by better than expected sales and restaurant margins at KFC China. EPS also benefited from a 5% reduction in our diluted share count compared to our first quarter last year due to our significant share buybacks over the past 12 months. I'll now take you through our results by division starting with our China business. For the China Division, overall, same-store sales grew 6% in the quarter. KFC grew same-store sales 12%, which was sequentially better than Q4, and exceeded our expectations. A successful Chinese New Year promotion drove results. As Greg said, the KFC brand in China is really powerful when you deliver insight-driven marketing that resonates with our customers. Same-store sales at Pizza Hut Casual Dining remain sluggish, declining 12% in the quarter. We are working to turn the Pizza Hut business around in a difficult macro and competitive environment. Restaurant margin improved 3.5 percentage points versus the prior year to 22.4%, helped by sales leverage at KFC, productivity initiatives, and commodity deflations, more than offsetting sales deleverage at Pizza Hut. While our first quarter is a seasonally high sales period for the China Division, restaurant margins of over 22% give us tremendous confidence in the future earnings power of this business. When we deliver solid top-line growth, the profits are impressive. One other note on China's first quarter results, we had a leap year benefit that added an additional $6 million of operating profit in Q1 to China's results. However, we pulled sales from the leap day out of our same-store sales calculation, so the extra day had no impact on our reported 6% same-store sales growth. The way our reporting calendars work here at Yum!, none of our other divisions saw any impact from leap year in Q1. Now, moving to our global KFC Division, which posted its ninth consecutive quarter of same-store sales and profit growth. Emerging and international developed markets, each grew comps 1%. The U.S. recorded its seventh consecutive quarter of same-store sales growth despite overlapping 7% comps in the first quarter of last year. Operating margins improved 30 basis points in constant currency, and core operating profit grew 4% in the quarter. Adjusting for the incremental advertising expense associated with the Acceleration Agreement we reached with our franchisees in 2015, core operating profit grew 7% in the quarter. As a reminder, the Acceleration Agreement with our U.S. franchisees, which went into effect during the second quarter of last year called for us to invest incremental media of $20 million in 2016 as opposed to $10 million last year. Our global Pizza Hut Division delivered 3% same-store sales growth for the quarter, led by 5% same-store sales growth on our U.S. business. Same-store sales growth and lower G&A expenses drove core operating profit growth of 9%. This is the best result we've seen on Pizza Hut U.S. in years, and we believe our strategy is working to drive incremental transactions. I am pleased to see momentum behind the business, and believe we can transfer our U.S. learnings to benefit the system globally. Digital continues to grow in importance to our sales, comprising 46% of U.S. delivery and carryout sales, a three percentage point increase versus a year ago. On Super Bowl Sunday alone, we took over 500,000 digital orders, representing about 50% of sales on what was an all-time record day for the business. With digital orders comes higher levels of loyalty and higher average spend, so we are investing as you would expect. Along those lines, we are making progress in migrating to a single point of sale system in the U.S. by the end of 2017, which will allow us to be more nimble as we roll out digital initiatives going forward. Finally, Taco Bell faced increased value pressure from the burger chains in the first quarter, and posted 1% same-store sales growth. Same-store sales improved throughout the quarter, and we remain confident in achieving 3% same-store sales growth for the year, with a stronger second half than first half. Despite the lower than expected full quarter sales, operating margin improved 150 basis points to 28%, and operating profit grew 4%. Restaurant margins also improved 150 basis points at 21%, and we expect full-year margins to be greater than 20% this year, albeit slightly lower than last year. On the development front, we opened 49 new restaurants in the first quarter, with 90% opened by franchisees and licensees. Of our new openings, seven were international units. We expect to open a record number of Taco Bell units internationally in 2016 as we continue to make progress in building out the unit level economics as we enter the new countries. I'd now like to shift to our 2016 outlook with our strong first quarter results and a change in China's tax laws whereby a value-added tax, or VAT, is replacing the business tax, we are raising our full year core operating profit growth forecast to 12% from 10% for Yum! For a little bit of background on the VAT, China recently announced further reform to its retail tax structure, which is intended to be a progressive and positive shift to more closely align with the more modern service-based economy. Under this reform, a 6% output VAT would replace the 5% business tax currently applied to certain restaurant sales. Input VAT would be credible to the aforementioned 6% output VAT. This change is effective May 1, 2016, so it in no way had any impact on our first quarter performance. While it's difficult to estimate the impact of this VAT reform prior to its actual implementation, Yum! China currently expects a positive financial benefit, further enabling continued investment in the business, and creating thousands of additional jobs in China. While we are raising our forecast for core operating profit growth from Yum! from 10% to 12%, we are maintaining our guidance for China same-store sales of 2% to 3% for the full year. From a modeling standpoint, there are two other things to bear in mind as you build your forecast. First, the second quarter in China, which is typically our seasonally low quarter, happens to be our toughest hurdle of the year on a two-year, three-year, and four-year stacked same-store sales basis. Second, we have an RGM convention in the second quarter that we did not have last year that we expect to cost around $7 million. It is important for you to note that these factors were fully factored into our initial guidance and our first half and full year performance is expected to exceed our expectations coming into the year. All in for Yum!, we outperformed our expectations in the first quarter, and are raising our full year guidance to 12% core operating profit growth, including the 53rd week. This takes into account the strong first quarter produced by KFC China, weakness at Pizza Hut Casual Dining, and the expected VAT benefit in China, in addition to our brand divisions continuing to produce results consistent with our initial 2016 targets. It is early in the year to raise guidance, but we feel confident given where things stand and we'll update you as the year progresses. Now, I'd like to quickly update you on our spin-off plans. We remain on track to complete the spin-off by year end. We plan on filing our initial Form-10 by early May, and conducting comprehensive road shows ahead of the separation. This spin-off will establish two unique investment opportunities, and create one of the largest U.S.-listed China retail businesses. Another key aspect of our strategy is to optimize the capital structure of Yum!. Given the significant improvement we've seen recently in the debt markets, we'd like to announce another milestone in our previously communicated plan of targeting company-wide leverage of approximately 5 times EBITDA. In early May, we plan to enter into a new financing facility of at least $2 million, securitizing Taco Bell U.S. royalties. As the next step in our plan, subsidiaries that operate our KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell's businesses, excluding the Taco Bell subsidiaries included in the securitization financing are expected to enter into a new senior secured credit facility and issue new high-yield notes. More details will be forthcoming in a separate release later today. In line with what we've previously communicated, we plan to complete our rate (19:26) capitalization and have approximately $9 billion in debt outstanding by the end of the second quarter. Finally, since we announced in October 2015 our intention to separate the China business, we have bought back 24.7 million shares at an average price of $71, returning a total of $1.8 billion to shareholders, excluding dividends. As previously announced, our recap will enable us to complete an additional $4.4 billion return of capital return to shareholders. So let me wrap things up. I'm pleased we started 2016 off with a strong quarter. We're confident we'll deliver 12% core operating profit growth for the full year, and we're proceeding as expected with the separation of our China business into an independent publicly-traded company. We're working diligently to set up both companies for future success and look forward to updating you on any progress throughout the year. And with that, I'll hand the call back to Greg. Greg Creed - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Dave. Before we start Q&A, I wanted to provide a brief update on our plans for the China business. You may have seen recent news stories about a sale or a potential strategic investor. I want to assure you that we are fully committed to maximizing the value of our China business for the benefit of our shareholders, and we will carefully consider all options to achieve that goal. As you know, we announced in October that after careful consideration, we believe that the best way to maximize shareholder value is to spin off our China business by the end of this year, and we are making great progress towards the spin-off. We won't have any further comment on this. And with that, I'll open the call up to Q&A.