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YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Mon, Nov 10, 2025

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Transcript

Margarita Chun

Management

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Margarita Chun YPF IR Manager. Thank you for joining us today in our Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. Today's presentation will be conducted by our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Horacio Marin; our Finance VP, Mr. Pedro Kearney, and our Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling VP, Mr. Maximiliano Westen. During the presentation, we will go through the main aspects and events that shape the quarter results. And then we will open the floor for a Q&A session together with our management team. Before we begin, please consider our cautionary statement on Slide 2. Our remarks today and answers to your questions may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by these remarks. Our financial figures are stated in accordance with IFRS, but during the presentation, we might discuss some non-IFRS measures such as adjusted EBITDA. I will now turn the call over to Horacio. Please go ahead.

Horacio Marin

Management

Thank you, Margarita, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by highlighting that this was another quarter in which we continued to deliver solid operational performance. Despite the contraction in international prices, we maintained strong profitability levels compared to last year, gaining further operating efficiency and consolidating the tremendous progress that has been achieved in our Shale operations. Revenues amounted to $4.6 billion, 12% below the previous year, in line with the 13% year-on-year decline in the Brent price in addition to other offsetting effects. Adjusted EBITDA reached approximately $1.4 billion, representing a sequential increase of more than 20%, while remaining flat versus the previous year. The sequential improvement reflects higher shale production, coupled with the successful strategy of reducing exposure to conventional mature fields. The year-on-year comparison shows YPF's ability to maintain its profitability despite the contraction in international prices, driven by an improved production mix with a higher proportion of shale and continuous improvement in operational performance. That exit strategy led us to an impressive lifting cost reduction of 28% quarter-over-quarter and 45% year-over-year. During the third quarter, our shale oil production increased by 35% internally, reaching 170,000 barrels per day. More recently, in October, preliminary figures indicate shale oil production expanded by another 12% over the average of the third quarter, totaling around 190,000 barrels per day. This production level is fully aligned with our annual target of shale oil production of roughly 165,000 barrels per day. Moreover, it will enable us to slightly exceed the December 2025 production target of 190,000 barrels per day. Furthermore, the higher shale oil output that generate a remarkable shift in our production mix has allowed us to improve our EBITDA by around $1.3 billion on an annual basis versus 2 years ago. CapEx activity continue to be focused on developing…

Maximiliano Westen

Management

Thank you, Horacio, and good morning to you all. Let me begin by expanding on Horacio's comment about the evolution of our oil and gas production. During the quarter, total hydrocarbon production averaged 523,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, declining 4% on a sequential basis and 6% on a year-over-year basis as a result of the divestment program of mature conventional fields, partially offset by the expansion of our shale production that accounted for approximately 70% of the total output, increasing its portion once again and as expected, vis-a-vis the previous quarter. Oil production reached 240,000 barrels per day 3% below the previous quarter and 6% down against last year. Nevertheless, it is worth highlighting that shale oil production recorded an impressive growth of 35% against last year and 17% versus the previous quarter, almost neutralizing the conventional production decline driven by the successful exit strategy of our mature conventional fields that accounted to only 14,000 barrels per day in the quarter. Beyond crude, natural gas production totaled 38.4 million cubic meters per day, down 3% on a sequential basis. This decline reflects an 18% contraction in conventional production from mature fields, partially mitigated by an expansion of 5% in shale gas production. Regarding prices within the Upstream segment, crude oil realization price averaged $60 per barrel in the third quarter, essentially flat on a sequential basis and contracting 12% year-over-year, aligned with the variations of Brent. Natural gas prices increased by 6% quarter-over-quarter to an average of $4.3 per MBtu, supported by the seasonal factor included in the planned gas program between the months of May and September. Now let me dive into the evolution of our shale oil output. YPF reinforces its leading position in the development of Vaca Muerta oil, accounting for roughly 1/3 of the…

Pedro Kearney

Management

Thank you, Max, and good morning, everyone. On the financial front, the third quarter ended with a negative free cash flow position as expected that amounted to $759 million, mainly explained by the recent acquisition of the shale assets La Escalonada and Rincon La Ceniza blocks to Total astral, closed at a purchase price of $523 million by the end of September. Moreover, despite the third quarter adjusted EBITDA surpassed CapEx deployment and regular interest payment, we recorded negative working capital associated with the discontinued operations in our mature fields, income tax payments from our subsidiaries and longer collection days from natural gas clients and blank gas program that started to normalize during October. It is worth noting that excluding the one-off items related to M&A transactions and the negative impact of the mature fields exit strategy, our negative free cash flow would have amounted to $172 million in an environment of lower international prices. Finally, on the liquidity front, our cash and short-term investments totaled at $1 billion by the end of September, remaining essentially flat vis-a-vis the previous quarter. In terms of financing, during the third quarter, we continued progressing on our financial program by securing local loans obtained from relationship banks and by tapping the local capital market at very attractive financing costs. In that sense, during the third quarter, we issued 2 dollar net bonds for a total amount of $300 million at an interest rate of 7.5% and a tenure of 2.5 years. In addition, we issued $225 million from dollar capital bonds with a 5-year tenure and an interest rate of 8.5% tendered in the international market to local investors. That, combined with a $300 million international bridge loan allow us to find the recent acquisition of shale assets. More recently, during October, we…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Alejandro Demichelis with Jefferies.

Alejandro Anibal Demichelis

Analyst

Yes. Congratulations on the quarter. Production has been very strong, particularly on the shale oil side of things. Could you give us some indication of how you're seeing production growing into 2026, 2027? That's the first question. And then Horacio, you mentioned all of the improvements that we are doing on the refining side and so on. We have seen you recently taken full control of the revenue asset. So could you please give us some indication of how you see that asset developing on the rest of the refining portfolio?

Horacio Marin

Management

Okay. Thank you very much for the question. Regarding the production, we see -- you can expect the same that we talk in line what we see in New York this year but at average for next year in the order of 215 and '27 in order of 290. We can give you a better number in the next call. But we think that we are going -- we are in line with all the program, okay? Regarding the refining side, [indiscernible] what was important was for the [indiscernible]. The [indiscernible] was very, very important for YPF because they give us a very good logistical advantage comparing with our, I would say, our competitors. And that's why it was that we decided to take that step because it was a difficult situation with the partner in that matter. For the gas stations, there is no difference because we were supplying those gas stations. We are going to take the best one with the YPF brand and we maintain the other with [indiscernible] as is today. And on the other side, in the refinery, which is in Campo Durán is close. But our idea is to make value for all the shareholders by doing something of this sort that we say in Santa Fe Bio, okay? So we are working on in that direction.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Leonardo Marcondes with Bank of America.

Leonardo Marcondes

Analyst · Bank of America.

I have 3 from my side. My first question is regarding capital allocation and M&A. We have seen YPF quite active on the M&A front, right? In this regard, what should we expect from the company going forward? I mean, does the company continue pursuing new M&A opportunities? Or is it time to focus on the development of the assets within the portfolio? My second question is regarding the divestments and capital allocation as well. So could you share your plans for Metrogas and also YPF Agro? And when could we expect to hear more news on these matters? And lastly, my third question is regarding the LNG projects. I mean how do you expect to fund this project? And if we should expect any sort of project finance evolving there?

Horacio Marin

Management

Okay. Thank you very much for the question. For the first Okay. Thank you very much for the question. For the first one, Pillar 2 of our YPF 4x4, is active portfolio management, that means buy and sell. It depends where you can make more value for shareholders. We were active out with the bat field, and we see -- there was a big opportunity this year for the, I would say, core assets in Vaca Muerta. And that's why we decided to buy the total asset of Vaca Muerta. What you are going to expect, I don't see that there will be a lot of changes in our strategy, but we don't see that we will be active next year for major acquisition in Vaca Muerta, not in the others, okay? So that is what is our thought. Regarding Metrogas, Metrogas, we are in the process of the extension, the 20-year extension of the company, the contract. More than contract is the concession. They tell me concession here because remember I am an old man, I don't remember all the words as there are people here that they say you are wrong iss a concession, okay? So it's a concession. And our idea there is that after that, we start with the bank, and we are going to sell as soon as possible, okay? And for the law, we have to sell because of the -- I don't know how the -- I ask Herman that is the lawyer [Foreign Language] the vertical integration that they have the company, we have to sell before the plant gas is out. And so we are going to sell that. And YPF Agro is not necessary capital allocation. What is there is that we are -- YPF wonderful commercial channel that was built by YPF say, 20 years ago or so and it's extremely extremely successful. That's why there is the other company that refinery also they call with the name. So they copy the YPF. Our idea is because we have the knowledge of selling on the other things is that to have a strategic partner that can make more value for us and for all the shareholders and to have like a mixed company where we put the CFO inside, and we will have 50% and 50%, okay? That is the idea, and they will be very close now. That is on the stake right now, okay? And that is the second question that you asked. Regarding the LIC, you're right, it's a project finance that we are going to do with our partners. You're right.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from [indiscernible] with Morgan Stanley.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

First one on my end is, could you give us more color on what drove the working capital losses this quarter? And what should we expect in terms of working capital gains or losses in the coming quarters and how this should contribute to free cash flow generation into 4Q? Second one is if you could give us more color on what drove the lifting costs. Was it just higher shale output? Or are there any other factors which explain this decline and how this -- how should we should expect this into 4Q as well? And if I may, a third one, if we should expect an acceleration of 4Q '25 CapEx? And how should your CapEx stand versus the guidance?

Horacio Marin

Management

The first question after I will pass to Pedro, so they can explain in more detail than me. But I can tell you the more general, but I will pass to Pedro. For the second one in the lifting cost, remember that we are going out of mature fields and reducing the production from there, but you are increasing a lot of the production as you see in the presentation in the Vaca Muerta fields. So there is several reasons why we reduce. First, we have a clear in Pillar 3 that we have to make efficiency every day in our life. The second thing is when you increase a lot of the production, you reduce the fixed cost. And so you have to expect that we are going to maintain or reduce. But I think to maintain is a good number that we have, I think we are in a very low lifting costs, okay, is very low. Which more you asked any other factors explain this decline? I expected, I explained that. I think I answered that. In the fourth quarter '25, the CapEx, no, we think that we are going to end up in the year with a little less CapEx than we said at the beginning of the year. And the production, if you see the -- while you see, you don't see that, but I see the report, the daily reports, we are -- they -- now we are in more than 190. Today -- yesterday it was more than 284. We have someday 199.94. So I start discussing with the guy why it's not 200, but it doesn't matter. So we are close and we are in better shape than we thought at the beginning of the year. So we are focusing in looking at the results and looking at the best places to drill. That's why we are expecting those results. And with the CapEx, I say. I pass to Pedro so they can explain about the working capital.

Pedro Kearney

Management

Thank you very much for your question. So as you noted, during the third quarter, we recorded a negative working capital by about $360 million, and that was driven by multiple reasons. The first, the seasonality of the natural gas sales that was -- that were accrued in the third quarter and are expected to be collected in the fourth quarter. That's approximately $100 million. Second, we recorded in the third quarter longer collection days from the natural gas clients and from the plan gas program that started to normalize during October and November. That's approximately $50 million. Third, in the third quarter, we recorded a positive stock variation in the downstream business for about $60 million. That's the result of higher oil purchases to third parties to restock inventories given the inventory drawdown that we recorded in the second quarter. Then we recorded a particular lag in the OpEx and the CapEx from the mature fields that were out from YPF financial statements since the end of June, and those payments were phased during the third quarter. And finally, this negative free cash flow includes a decrease in the mark-to-market position of our sovereign bonds, which increased and changed fortunately during October and November.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Daniel Guardiola with BTG.

Daniel Guardiola

Analyst · BTG.

I have a couple of questions here. The first one is on costs. And I would like to know if you can share with us how do you envision the trajectory of your lifting and D&C costs for 2026 and eventually, if possible and onwards, it will be great, especially considering the asset sale you did of conventional assets and the potential renegotiation of contracts with some of the service companies. My second question is on leverage, given the fact we saw an increase in leverage during this Q to 2.1x. And I would like to know if you can share with us what is the maximum leverage at which the company feels comfortable operating at. And in that sense, given that leverage has been going up in the last couple of quarters, I would like to know if you guys have ever considered to hedge your exposure to oil prices to offset any potential volatility in oil prices. So those would be my 2 questions.

Horacio Marin

Management

Okay. With the listing and the drilling and completion cost, I can give you more details in the next call. We are working very hard to reduce the unit cost with all the service company, and we are in negotiation during the week, okay? So I cannot tell you exactly, but I think we are going to reduce the unit cost very important because Argentina is another country. So that's why we are going to work on that. In the listing, I think I answered that, okay? You have to expect that we are going to be in that region, okay, that we say. Regarding, that were -- you say our debt in -- I think you have to take into account that last year, we bought 2 assets, okay? That's why the ratio goes up. We don't go -- we are not going to increase. It's not our goal that we think that we are in the maximum that we want to be. And during '23, you are going to see a reduction. But taking into account what is that we bought 2 good assets in Argentina, the best in gas and the -- I don't say the best in oil, but one of the core that is very important. That's why we thought that was important to buy those assets and make more value in the future in the near future for all the shareholders.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Guilherme Martins with Goldman Sachs.

Guilherme Costa Martins

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

[indiscernible], is a strong ramp-up of shale operations being seen in the second half of the year. I have 2 quick questions here. My first one is on downstream. I understand you guys were not able to price prices in line with international parity in 2Q, right? I would just like to get a little bit more color on what happened in the competitive environment. You mentioned a volatile dynamics, but any additional color would be grateful. And my second question, if you guys could please provide an update on the ongoing divestment of Metro fields. When we should see next divestments being concluded? When we should see production continue to decline following the exit of those assets? And whether we should see additional cash outflow from the exit of those legacy assets? Thank you.

Horacio Marin

Management

Sorry, okay. Talking about prices, we have a policy that I cannot open -- be totally open because it's not we are going to say to our competitor. But we have moving average because there was -- in the last -- this quarter, there was a lot of volatility in prices. And remember that we have the exchange rate, the oil price, the biofuels and the taxes. And so in our country, the consumers need to, we are not accustomed to have changes on prices every day, okay, and big changes. So we have a moving average. And I don't know if you remember that we built a new real-time [indiscernible] center in the commercial side that is unique. I don't know if you are making, I don't know if you are making [indiscernible], okay? We have there everything that you can imagine with use AI and a lot of things. And from there, we are working with the new policy of prices that is micro pricing. And we are working and always trying to maintain our policy in -- but the last quarter was the big volatility in -- also in Argentina. You know that there was a lot of volatility. And that's why it was very difficult to go up because sometimes goes up, sometimes goes down. But now we are in a good shape. And the second one was about the -- I think and all that stuff. Today in the afternoon, we are going to sign [indiscernible] that was the last one. And we have only one area that is in Rio Negro that we are going to sign very quickly. But after that, we are out [indiscernible], okay? It was the most important for the value of our shareholders. But we understood, we are in the process of negotiating now to go out from conventional. Those conventional are areas that make value for all, but it's very important because we have the determination to go to be unconventional -- integrated unconventional company. So that is our goal, and we are going to negotiate in the next month to be out more than we can lots of assets and to be next year or if we can to be totally unconventional company.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Tasso Vasconcellos with UBS.

Tasso Vasconcellos

Analyst · UBS.

I have 2 here on my side. First one, Horacio, can you remind us what legislations, I mean, either new legislations or adjustments on existing ones that YPF still relies on to move forward with and projects. As far as I remember here, there wasn't many new regulations that the oil and gas industry as a whole depend on, but there are some specific timing on some projects to be included under the region. So not sure if there is -- actually not check there is any kind of discussion on the 8% export taxes for the industry. So I think it would be great to have a broader recap on this political or regulation landscape. And the second question, actually a follow-up on the domestic fuel prices. You just mentioned about what did you notice in terms of upside or downside potation since the established a more dynamic pricing model, the real-time center and so on? And what can you tell us about the recent news saying that some politicians in Argentina wanted to create a law which you need to give a 72-hour notice advanced before adjusting fuel prices? Those are my 2 questions here.

Horacio Marin

Management

Okay. Thank you for the question. I don't know, thank you for the question. But beyond, the -- really is -- if you are refrain to the export duty for conventional, there is something new. I know exactly what you say on the new because remember, we are YPF, we are a private company, and we are not in the, I will say, regulation side. So really, I don't know. And conventional, remember that is not our -- now is not our core, okay? But I read in the news they sent to you that they are negotiation on that, but I have no idea what will happen. Regarding resi, for sure, the resi will be apply for LNG and if supply for infrastructure for LNG. And for LNG, we expect that to be in all the chain. The second one that you say that is -- yes, I read in newspaper the same to you, but that is regulation. I have to answer the same. I'm not working on regulation at all.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn the call back to YPF management team for closing remarks.

Horacio Marin

Management

Okay. Thank you very much for your attention, for your questions, and you are always very polite with us. So I would like to say thank you for that. And you have to expect that this is a company that will change a lot the way of management, the way of working every day. I'm very proud for all the work that all the employees is doing now and the energy that we are putting. And so you have to spread '26 a very clean year of the results. The problem of this year, and I imagine for you, it is very difficult to see because there is dirty with mature fees with taxes, with deferred taxes that only account I can understand. And when they explain, they are confused. So it's difficult to understand what you are saying. And so you have to 26, a very clean one, and you will see there how we are making the value for our shareholders that you can see in this quarter. I relate to for you because there are some people that are confused we say that the production is increasing operation where you're making value because we are reducing the conventionals. And if you annualize the value so far only to change the mixture is $1.3 billion. And this quarter, you can see that. So we are really very proud of we are doing all the people that we are an executive committee and all the people that are working there. Thank you very much for all of you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.