Alejandro Lew
Analyst · Frank McGann with Bank of America. Your line is open
Thank you, Sergio, and good morning to you all. Before going into our financial results, let me go deeper on how we are working to protect our people and to address the energy transition. Sustainability is at the core of everything we do. And therefore, safety of our people is a top priority. As we have gradually started to assume activity, the index that measures the frequency of accidents per million hours worked reached its lowest historical value at 0.2 in 2020, improving more than 50% when compared to 2019. However, while we continue to strengthen safety precautions, we have to regret the casualty of a fellow worker who lost his life in January of this year, while performing maintenance tasks at one of our oilfields. As regards to our response to the pandemic, our COVID committee continues overseeing the critical services and operations are mundane with the utmost care for our employees, suppliers and customers. Over 90% of the people whose positions do not require face to face interactions are still working remotely. We are also monitoring the health of our employees and contractors on a daily basis to prevent contagion. And we have performed necessary testing and distributing more than 500,000 masks in our operational units. We are also helping the communities where we operate with equipment to face the COVID outbreak. We have helped hospitals and local municipalities and provide the essential workers with protection and equipment to face the pandemic. In addition, Y-TEC, our R&D subsidiary, has developed NEOKIT, a molecular test that can diagnose the COVID virus in a simple and fast way. So far, more than 1 million tests were produced, distributed, commercialized, and some of them even exported, besides 200,000 liters of hydroalcoholic were produced for use of our employees and the donations. Further focusing on sustainability, we have significantly improved our ranking position within the oil and gas industry to the 10th place based on a voluntary participation in the Corporate Sustainability Assessment designed for the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. In addition, YPF was included in S&P’s The Sustainability Yearbook 2021, which includes companies with top tier sustainability and ESG practices, ranking in the top 15% among oil and gas companies. In line with our policy to promote cleaner and more efficient energy solutions, we have been working hard on reducing our direct greenhouse gas emissions. We have set a target of 0.34 tons of CO2 equivalent per unit produced by 2023, and we are making good progress. In 2020, we reduced the intensity of direct emissions by more than 2% as compared to 2019, already reaching 0.367. Moreover, natural gas, which accounts for almost half of our hydrocarbon production mix, plays a key role not only as a transition fuel, but also as a smart flexible partner for renewable's intermittency. We are committed to a cleaner oil and gas production by minimizing flaring, venting and methane leaks along our supply chain. In addition, nearly 20% of the energy used in our operations in 2020 came from renewable sources, significantly advancing our target that was originally set for 2025. In this front, YPF Luz, a power company controlled jointly with GE, represent our strategic arm for the energy transition. Despite the pandemic, YPF Luz managed to reach COD on several power generation projects between September and October for an aggregate capacity of over 400 megawatts, including efficient thermal assets and renewables. When including these projects now in commercial operation, the company has reached a total installed capacity of over 2.2 gigahertz, including more than 200 megawatts from wind farms. In addition, another 231 megawatts are expected to be commissioned in the first half of this year, including 174 megawatts of renewable energy. I will now go through our financial results for the year. 2020 figures were fully impacted by the effects of the pandemic. It was an extremely challenging year for the worldwide oil and gas industry, and we were not the exception. Top of the list, our revenues for the year contracted by 32% mainly explained by a similar decline in fuel sales, both on lower volumes dispatch as well as lower prices, while natural gas revenues and jet fuel sales also contributed to the decline, as natural gas prices dropped by about 30% while jet volumes collapsed by more than 70%. Compensating at least partially the severe decline in revenues, we managed to achieve a significant reduction in total costs that were down by 25% during the year, or an even larger 30% when normalizing OpEx by eliminating one-off items, as I will comment in a few moments. While this was partially generated by the contraction in purchases and royalties on the back of lower volumes and prices, a key aspect was the reduction in OpEx, which produced savings of about $1 billion when eliminating one-off items. This was the result of a companywide structural cost cutting program initiated last year that has already started delivering initial encouraging results. But even more critical, as already commented by Sergio, we have reacted quickly and decisively upon the outbursts of the unexpected pandemic to prioritize financial discipline by helping our investment plan, which was cut by about $2 billion when compared with the previous year. And on this same line, we managed to reduce our net debt by about $500 million along the year. However, as conditions started to normalize in the second half, we have been gradually increasing activity, leveraging on the cost efficiencies already secured with CapEx reaching $538 million in Q4, more than doubling the amount invested in the previous quarter. Based on the key variables already laid out, adjusted EBITDA for the year totaled $1.5 million, contracted 60% year-over-year. This figure was significantly impacted by non-recurring charges in 2020 totaling close to $600 million, mainly related to abnormally high operating costs from rigs in standby mode, the voluntary retirement program for non-unionized employees, the reversal of Decree 1053 and the charge related to the termination fee of the floating LNG contract with Exmar. When adjusting for these charges, normalized EBITDA would have reached over $2 billion or 40% higher than reported adjusted EBITDA, but still contracting by 44% year-over-year. In terms of operating income, it is worth highlighting that during the fourth quarter, we recorded a reversal of an impairment charge of over $820 million, resulting in positive operating income for the quarter and leaving the cumulative figure for the year at a loss of $911 million. The impairment reversal was driven by the revaluation of certain gas projects on the back of the confirmation of the New Plan Gas, which resulted in improved economics and midterm visibility for these projects, which was taking into consideration for the reassessment of the economics of our resources. On a quarterly basis, adjusted EBITDA reached $183 million in Q4 or 385 million after normalizing for the non-recurring items affecting this quarter. This normalized adjusted EBITDA figure represented a 30% sequential decline, mainly driven by lower oil and gas production and higher OpEx resulting from the resumption in pooling and workover activities, despite the steady improvement in demand for refined products and the gradual recovery in fuel prices, all of which is fully in line with the guidance providing during the previous quarter’s webcast. Going into all the upstream business, total hydrocarbon production for the year declined by 9%, in line with guidance provided in previous quarters, as we adjusted investment and workover [ph] activity to face the effects of the pandemic on our financial situation. Crude oil production went down by 9% year-over-year averaging 207,000 barrels of oil per day during 2020 we lower conventional production being partially offset by higher shale oil. On the natural gas front, production came at 36 million cubic meters per day, a decline of 10% versus the previous year aligned with the company's objectives taken in late 2019 to reduce natural gas production on the back of prevailing low prices, as the supply overhang remained in place. Finally, NGL production decreased by 5% year-over-year, mainly associated to lower gas production. As economic conditions recovered on the back of the flexibilization of the lockdown measures, we have gradually resumed investment and workover activity, which have a negative impact in production in Q4, as total output decreased by 10% sequentially due to the temporary closing of wells to avoid interference, while fracking and connecting new ones, as well as program maintenance activities in natural gas pipelines. During the year, our crude oil realization price averaged $40 per barrel, 24% down from the previous year. This decline was lower than the close to 35% drop in Brent, as local prices were not fully impacted by the collapse in international prices, given the introduction of the [indiscernible] on May 20, which established a minimum reference price for Medanito quality crude at $45 per barrel. However, after the [indiscernible] expire in mid August on the back of the recovery in Brent prices, local oil has since been freely negotiated following export parity. On the natural gas side, and still as a consequence of the excess offer, market prices were also below the previous year's realization price. Our selling price averaged $2.6 per million BTU compared to $3.6 per million BTU in the previous year. Going forward, we expect higher average realization prices given that about 60% of our natural gas production will be sold through the four-year contracts granted on the back of the New Plan Gas 4 at average prices of $3.66 per million BTU. In terms of costs, during 2020, we were able to reduce our average lifting costs by 19%, averaging $9.7 per barrel of oil equivalent, driven by operational efficiencies achieved on the back of our cost cutting program, as well as lower pooling and workover activities primarily in the second and third quarters. Therefore, although we expect cost reductions to be maintained, and even increase in the future, as the focus on efficiency became the new norm, lifting costs could increase in 2021, but still be well below 2019 levels, as activities fully restored and natural decline in conventional fields impacts the overall average. Looking deeper into our shale production, despite the challenging environment, we were able to increase our shale production for the year by 9% when compared to 2019. However, in Q4, shale production contracted 14% sequentially, due to the maintenance works in gas pipelines and the temporary closing of oils, in addition to a technical adjustment in the way we account for the NGL production coming from some non-operated blocks that generated a rare categorization between natural gas and liquids for the previous quarters, with a net negative impact in total production in Q4. More recently, in January, our oil and gas shale production has already started to recover, reaching 95,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 7% versus average levels in the fourth quarter. While preliminary figures for February show a historical high from our operated areas, showcasing our investment focus on these assets. Going into the right side of this slide, oil and gas conventional production for the year contracted by 12% compared to the previous year, with similar performance in both crude and natural gas production. However, I would highlight that full natural decline was partially offset through the advancement of secondary and tertiary recovery techniques with encouraging results. As an example, Manantiales Behr closed 2020 with the highest production in its history, reaching 21,600 barrels per day, increasing by 8% year-over-year, thanks to innovation and top notch technology that allow us to improve the oil recovery factor. Tertiary production averaged 22,000 barrels per day during the year compared to just about 800 barrels per day in 2019, and further increasing to 45,000 barrels per day last January. YPF’s ambitious strategy in Argentina has included the risking of areas with high polymer potential to further expand those areas with proven pilot response. The successful experience with tertiary recovery commenced in 2015 through an initial pilot using polymer flooding techniques at the Grimbeek field in Manantiales Behr becoming the basis for the current operation of five polymer injection units at that field, while three additional PIUs are expected to be connected in 2021. In addition, full planning for 2021 also includes the installation of seven more PIUs, four for the massification [ph] production at Chachahuén in Mendoza as well as three pilots at Los Perales and Cañadón León in Santa Cruz and El Trebol in June [ph]. Total investment for EOR development in 2021 is estimated between $60 million and $90 million. Moving into the next slide. As mentioned before, we have gradually started to resume activity in Q4 after having gone into a full stop during the second quarter. As of the end of the year, we’ve had over 80 rigs back in operation, including drilling, workover and pulling towers, which compares to an average of less than 20 pulling equipment in operation during the second quarter. We have resumed activity in a more efficient way, as each dollar invested is having more power than in the past. We have seen a significant improvement in frac speed, reaching seven stages per day in Q4. And while we expect these figures to be slightly worse in 2021, as the resumption in activity has mainly focused on our core half, which has better logistics due to lower distances, it still results significantly better than the average figure for 2019. In addition, in January, we reached our historical record in terms of monthly stages totaling 412 fracs, outpacing the previous record of 385 reached in September of 2019. We have also drilled the longest horizontal well in Bandurria Sur, which reached a lateral length of 3,800 meters and an IP of 2,200 barrels per day. On the conventional side, we have accomplished a significant reduction in pulling intervention time, as total hours per intervention in Q4 were 26% below the average for 2019. And in terms of future opportunities, for 2021, we come with efficient sources of growth thanks to the drilled and completed wells that we have in our backlog. By the end of 2020, we have already connected 18 of the 81 DUC wells that resulted from the complete activity halt in Q2, and plan to connect 48 additional wells during the first half of this year, with their associated production expected to reach 33,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by the end of the second quarter. Going into the evolution of hydrocarbon reserves, in 2020, 1P reserves contracted to 922 million BOEs. This decline was mainly driven by the reduction in investment activity, while also being negatively affected by the impact from lower prices. We generated a downward revision of over 100 million barrels of oil equivalent, which more than offset the upward revision related to OpEx savings for about 50 million BOEs. Despite this, the reserves replacement ratio for shale is still close to 150% with our high quality natural reserves expanding by 5% year-over-year, now representing 39% of total crude reserves, up from 31% in 2019, led primarily by the incorporation of natural gas reserves, given the viability of new projects associated with the New Plan Gas that was already commented in this presentation. Finally, the price visibility provided by the New Plan Gas together with the overall lower cost base also led to a significant addition of 2P and 3P reserves. Total reserves, including proved, probable and possible grew by 7% during the year, as 3P reserves increased by more than 100%. Switching to our downstream business, demand for refined products dropped significantly during the year, affected by the lockdown measures in place since late March. During 2020, gasoline contracted by 30% and diesel by 11%. The worst monthly record was in April when gasoline and diesel volumes contracted by about 70% and 35% year-over-year, respectively. Since then, demand has gradually but steadily improved, closing the year with gasoline and diesel demand at minus 7% and minus 5%, respectively, compared to December 2019 levels. Additionally, preliminary data for this year shows further improvement in diesel and stabilization for gasoline. Separately, given the collapse in local demand, we explored the regional export market as an opportunity to take advantage of our idle refining capacity. On this front, we managed to once again export fuels to Bolivia after 12 years and to Uruguay after more than five years, thus regaining our ability to act as a regional exporter of refined products. In terms of refinery utilization, we reacted quickly to the fall in demand and immediately adjusted our processing levels. Thus, capacity utilization averaged 73% in 2020, down from 87% in 2019. However, utilization has been increasing in line with recovery in demand after reaching its lowest level in April at 47%. Utilization for the fourth quarter averaged 75% and that for January shows average refinery utilization already at 86%. On this topic, it is worth highlighting that despite the logistics complications generated by the pandemic, we decided to move forward with the programmed major maintenance at our La Plata Refinery taking advantage of the low demand environment to minimize economic impact. Excluding these works, which ended in October, utilization would have been at 79% during the fourth quarter. With regards to prices, the pandemic affected international reference oil and refined product prices in a very significant way, reaching levels not seen since 2003. In this context and on the back of a weak macroeconomic local environment, our net fuels realization prices in dollar terms were on a sliding scale until we have managed to start with periodic adjustments back in August. This permitted to stabilize our net prices in dollars, and more recently regained some margin. However, even after the cumulative increases since August, our average net prices for 2020 measured in dollars still stood about 15% below the average levels of 2019 and about 30% below the average for the past 10 years. As mentioned before, we launched a cost cutting plan across the company and these efforts should not only render very significant savings in our structural operating expenses, but also an equally or even more importantly, on our CapEx costs. We have already reviewed about 90% of our vendor contracts and revisited a good portion of our internal operating processes, achieving important savings in key activities and have renegotiated conditions with the unions, introducing KPI related compensation and flexibilizing working conditions. Furthermore, in July, we launched a voluntary retirement program for non-unionized employees, which closed by the end of August, and will allow us to organically reduce our overall size and G&A costs. This program resulted in a reduction of 13% of our non-unionized workforce, having a total estimated cost of $125 million and generating future savings of over $50 million per year. And the results are very encouraging for both OpEx and CapEx. Normalized OpEx was down 24% year-over-year, both for full year 2020 and in Q4. Normalized OpEx was calculated by excluding one-off items affecting the figure in 2020, such as the termination charge for the contractual agreement with Exmar, the cost of the voluntary retirement program, standby costs and the provisioning of gas distribution companies receivables related to FX valuations granted by Decree 1053. However, while it is fair to highlight that this decline was also the result of reduced activity during 2020, we expect cost efficiencies secure primarily during the second half of 2020 to render overall OpEx savings for 2021 when compared to pre-pandemic levels in the order of 20%. On the CapEx side, further to the significant reductions in development costs already achieved along recent years at our core oil hub at Vaca Muerta, we are very confident about the investment efficiencies that we are currently achieving through renegotiated contracts and new world designs. We, therefore, expect average development costs for our core shale oil hub to decline by an additional 15% in 2021 when compared with pre-pandemic levels. Turning to cash flow, let me start by reiterating something that was already mentioned in previous quarters about the impact of Central Bank Communication 7030 on our liquidity position. The regulation established by that communication, which restricts corporates in Argentina from holding liquid assets abroad if they want to continue being granted access to the official FX market, has led us to hold most of our liquidity locally and in pesos. Given this situation and taking into consideration the dollarized nature of our long-term business, we have been monitoring our liquidity exposure related to FX variations, net of the stock of peso-denominated debt, which acts as the natural hedge. And based on the receivable exposure, we have decided to reduce the overall liquidity position while at the same time actively entering into FX derivatives to further hedge at least partially our net exposure. As a result of this, as of December 31, our net FX exposure related to our liquidity position stood at less than 30%. Along this line, financial discipline continues to be a key priority for us, particularly during these uncertain times. During 2020, our conservative approach on the back of the FX of the pandemic led to positive net cash flow from our operation, as the results in operating cash flow was more than compensated by a further decline in investment activities. This, together with a decision to reduce our cash position, resulted in net negative borrowing of $471 million during the year. Moving into our debt profile. In July 2020, we managed to successfully secure a significant short-term debt relief after refinancing almost 60% of our 1 billion 2021 bond. However, the enactment of Central Bank Communication 7106 in September changed the landscape. Within this new regulation in place, and despite the refinancing executed earlier in July, we will require to either refinance at least 60% of the residual amount of $415 million on our 2021 bond, or otherwise secure an equivalent amount of cross border financing to be able to fully honor our commitments. Given the limited options at hand, and as the former confirmation from the Central Bank of our obligation to comply with the regulation in spite of the earlier refinancing performed on the March 2021 bond, we launched a broader exchange offer last January, not only inviting receiver holders of the 2021, but also holders of the rest of our international dollar denominated notes with an aggregate face value of $6.2 billion. It is important to highlight the rationale behind the decision to invite all outstanding bonds into the exchange offer. As was commented during the transaction, we can see that it was inequitable to offer such alternative only to holders of the 2021 bonds and not to the rest of our investor base in case those investors consider it convenient to also exchange their short-term cash flows for a piece of the enhanced senior security that was being offered. And if investors were to see value in the offer, the company would in exchange get a much needed cash relief to help in the process of obtaining indirect financing to fund the CapEx program for 2021 and that reverting the oil and gas production decline over the last five years. The exchange resulted in a global participation of 32% and 60% in the case of holders of the 2021, allowing us to comply with the Central Bank regulations, thus avoiding a potential and voluntary non-payment situation, and generating a financial relief of around $600 million on aggregate for 2021 and '22. We understand the successful result was possible primarily due to the reasonable proposal that was presented to the market and the open and constructive dialogue that we held with investors along the process, which permitted us to adjust the offer to accommodate investors’ concerns while staying within parameters that we could commit to in the long term. As a final demonstration of the success of this transaction, earlier this week S&P announced two large upgrade [ph] to our international grade rating, taking it to CCC plus and mentioning it now being limited by the sovereign rating while the standalone credit profile was further raised to B minus. Supporting this decision, the rating agency quoted the positive exchange cash flow relief that will free up capital to invest in production and recover volumes. Looking forward, we have included a pro forma amortization schedule of our consolidated debt to reflect the post-exchange adjustment of our debt stock as of December 31. In summary, with this exercise, we have managed to significantly reduce refinancing risk for 2021, as most of the debt that comes due is in the local markets, both local bonds and bank loans, while cross border maturities, excluding subsidiaries, that was already repaid or refinanced during January and February, and after netting the $165 million of the residual amount of 2021 to be cancelled on March 23 stand at $275 million and are primarily concentrated in trade finance bank loans, which are typically easier to rollover. Furthermore, very recently in February, after the consummation of the international exchange, we assess the local capital markets being able to successfully raise over $120 million equivalent through the combination of a reopening of a three-year dollar-linked security at a yield of 3% and the new 42-month inflation linked note at the real rate of 3.5%, both providing very competitive financing conditions. Finally, let me add that although we have managed to further reduce our net indebtedness in the fourth quarter, our net leverage ratio calculated as net debt over the last 12 months EBITDA has jumped to 4.9x on the back of the construction in EBITDA during the most recent quarters. And also worth noting, these ratios stood at the lower 3.7x when calculated based on the definitions for covenant purposes. However, while leverage is likely to continue to increase this quarter as the full effect of the pandemic will be included in the rolling 12-month used for EBITDA calculation purposes, although we anticipate that in net new funding during the year, we expect net leverage to decrease in coming years as net indebtedness stabilizes, while EBITDA recovers, provided that market conditions continue to normalize and no particular contingencies materialize. I will now switch back to Sergio to go through the outlook for 2021.