Earnings Labs

YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Fri, Mar 6, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Fiscal Year End Fourth Quarter 2019 YPF S.A. Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon and I will be your operator for today At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to Ignacio Rostagno. You may begin sir.

Ignacio Rostagno

Analyst

Thank you, Brandon. Good morning ladies and gentlemen. This is Ignacio Rostagno, IR Manager. I would like to thank you for joining us today. In this occasion, we'll present YPF's 2019 full year and fourth quarter results. With me on the call today are our new Chairman, Guillermo Nielsen; and our CEO, Daniel González. Guillermo will start with some opening remarks. Daniel and I will go through the main aspects and instantly explain our results. And finally, we will open the call for questions. Please Guillermo go ahead.

Guillermo Nielsen

Analyst

Okay. Well good morning to all of you and thank you for taking the time on this very difficult day for the markets to join us. This is one of these days in which most of you are glued to screens looking at what happens in Vienna and what we can envisage for the very near future on the energy sector in general on a worldwide scale. We are looking closely to what happens to the Brent crude as well as what happens -- what is happening right now with the taxes intermediate which are on very low levels as you know. Let's say that crude has declined by almost a third since January. So, this impacts all of us without any doubt. But let's assume for this call that the coronavirus outbreak is largely contained in the second half of the year at least we have to make some bold assumptions no matter what. So -- but let me focus a bit on Argentina because we are also living challenging times in Argentina. And, of course, Daniel Gonzales will explain to you the results of last year as well as what's going on and we can -- what we can envisage about the macro scenario that will make a very important impact on the decisions to come. So, let me say just to round this up this introductory statement and I'm very proud I'm very committed to lead a company that has a 100-year history. A company that has discovered the main oil and gas bases in Argentina and pioneered the development of the energy sector in shale which is which was something new at the time and very important. It's also the fifth electric generator of Argentina. So, in a short, we can say that YPF is really…

Ignacio Rostagno

Analyst

Thank you, Daniel. Vis-à-vis the fourth quarter of last year. In Q4 of 2019, our metrics were mainly affected by the freezing in fuel prices, driving down revenues 12% and reducing 31% adjusted EBITDA. Natural gas prices also affected revenues, as they were 26% lower than the same period of last year. As a response to Presidential Decree 566 reacted recently, we focused on execution and continued our cash preservation strategy linked on our financial discipline. We immediately reassessed our budget and reduced CapEx from what we originally planned to invest with the aim of minimizing the cash impact of a lesser EBITDA, while we renegotiated rates with suppliers and contractors. We also reached the government to explain the negative effects of the measures they have taken and propose alternatives to reduce those effects. As a consequence, well an agreement was still in place, they allowed us some price increases. Furthermore, after it expired, we were able to keep on with gradual adjustments to narrow the local prices with import party as Daniel said. In terms of production, we had a significant increase of more than 5%, driven by higher sales of natural gas. Crude oil production remained flat through the quarter, while natural gas production increased compared to the previous summer due to the short-term levers Daniel mentioned that started to work and execution of a more aggressive pricing policy. We added new commercial agreements with customers', primarily external clients and power generators that generated an increasing demand. All in all, although both prices of fuel and natural gas who are lower, we had a strong quarter in cash flow generation and we were able to increase our cash position by year-end. Going into details of the annual cash flow, our cash position remains strong including short-term and medium-term…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And from Bank of America we have Frank McGann. Please go ahead.

Frank McGann

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much. Yes, I was wondering if you could just talk about your spending plans, not so much the level, but how you're thinking about allocation of capital right now, between oil and gas, between shale and tertiary investments. What factors are leading you to emphasize certain areas versus others? And what could change potentially, that might make you, for example, go back to a little bit more of a focus on gas? Daniel González: Good morning, Frank. Thank you. Well, in terms of the breakdown between oil and gas. What I can tell you is that, we are only investing in a few natural gas projects, which are non-operated by us and with good prospects. And in addition to that, in finalizing some facilities related to natural gas development, as I said earlier, to make sure that we are not putting at risk long-term growth prospects. But in all, we are talking about a couple of hundred million dollars of total CapEx. So really, really low. In terms of the investment in oil and you ask conventional versus unconventional, I'd say, 60% of the investment is in unconventionals and 40% in conventional. So we are trying to preserve a balance and we are still seeing opportunities in conventional production in addition to the opportunities that everybody has discussed and that we have discussed at length during the call on the unconventionals. Now, how we're going to be investing those moneys in the unconventional. I would say the following: we are going to be much more focused in investing in those areas which are already under full development mode that is where we can bring that oil off the ground faster, where we have proven already the economics and therefore it makes all the sense in the world to us to focus on that, and doing less delineation and less piloting as we have been doing in the last couple of years, which has worked very well for us. Otherwise, we would not be in a position to develop these blocks today. But given the restrictions, it's probably not a year to invest that heavily in delineation. Having said that, we do believe that there are a few opportunities outside of the three main blocks and as I mentioned Aguada del Chañar is one Bajo del Toro is another one and Bajada de Añelo is third one. So we will keep investing, but less heavily in some other shale areas outside of the three core.

Frank McGann

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. Just a follow-up, how do the returns vary based on -- and I know there are a whole range here for all of these categories. But the average returns in shale investments versus the conventional? Daniel González: Frank, as you know, we have never disclosed expected IRRs for any of our projects. You know that we have a cutoff rate of 13%. But I can tell you, shale oil projects have expected returns well above that cutoff rate.

Frank McGann

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

From Credit Suisse, we have Regis Cardoso. Please go ahead.

Regis Cardoso

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Thanks, Daniel, Guillermo for the very in-depth presentation. So, I mean, we have a bit of a Déjà vu feeling, I mean, best recent years at least have not been very easy for YPF and I think you've done an extraordinary job in keeping capital discipline and maintaining leverage under control. So, really, the point I want to understand is, still very focused on that front going forward. How much CapEx flexibility do you have? And how do you balance that compared to your plan on upgrading the rigs? What kind of assumptions are you using for 2020 guidance? What you believe to be the CapEx required to maintain production? So all of those questions, if you could comment on the CapEx front? And just another topic. How do you plan to rollover the debt and of increasing costs? So I'm referring to you to maturities now in the market around 10% compared to average cost about 7.5%? Is it easy to rollover the trade financing? Is it easier to roll over the bank loans? Can you go in the market and divest assets to make some liquidity without having to tap the market? So if could share your views on how to maintain the, let's call it, the financial health and balance sheet strong? Daniel González: Good morning, Regis. Thank you. Well to elaborate further on CapEx on top of what we just described on the Frank's question. I think that this level of $2.8 billion of CapEx is really one where we feel extremely comfortable, we can fund, we can finance, right? There's always flexibility. And I think the perfect example is what we did in the fourth quarter of last year when very rapidly we reacted and we cut CapEx. The company's intention is…

Regis Cardoso

Analyst

Thanks, Daniel. If I may just a follow-up again on the CapEx front. I understand, you're very comfortable with financing the CapEx plans. I just wanted to understand, what are the assumptions behind that plan I mean the $30 billion EBITDA guidance what sort of oil price level are you maintaining? And you have -- I mean, you could get some production growth still under that level of CapEx if I get it correctly. Do you have any views on how low could you go and still maintain production? Daniel González: Well, we were using for crude oil projects a $60 per barrel brand estimate. Obviously, now it seems really high. It was not that high a month ago or so. But anyway, the good news again is that, where we are investing, especially when we speak about the shale, it's in projects which are already in development mode meaning that the breakevens that we look at are breakevens of the new wells being drilled in those existing blocks. And there is where the breakevens are really low, okay? It'd be more difficult today with a brand that's below 50, as I saw on the screen this morning to make a final investment decision on a brand-new shale development, where you have the facilities, you have the learning curve and probably the breakeven needed for a brand-new development is much higher than the one that we are seeing in the 30s for the existing blocks, okay? So, what I'm trying to say with that is, obviously, higher the international crude oil prices the better. But still at these prices the investment decisions that we have made in a shale would not differ from those that we would make today with that knowledge. Now, I did mention that we expect oil production to go up 2% this year. If your question is well how much CapEx, you can actually cut in order to see oil production flat vis-à-vis 2% growth? I really don't know. But it would be very limited the reduction needed for that. So, as I said previously, this is not about growing oil production by 2% or being flat. This is about pursuing only profitable projects with the capital available that we are foreseeing at this stage.

Regis Cardoso

Analyst

Thanks, very clear.

Operator

Operator

From UBS we have Luiz Carvalho. Please go ahead.

Luiz Carvalho

Analyst

Hey, Daniel and Guillermo. Thanks for taking the question. For me three questions here. The first one on slide 9, you just mentioned about the selected Vaca Muerta transactions and you are pointing to dollars per acreage. This is kind of a recurring question from my end in terms of what was to be the potential divestments from the company. I mean, maybe, if you look them in over the next 12 months to 24 months, if there's something that you consider? Or due to the current economy environment in Argentina that's something that you should get a bit more? So just an update on this. The second one, it's just to understand and I do -- how can I say, the simple limitations that you don't have to answer the question. But when we look back to 2019 I mean a big chunk of the year actually in the entire year you were below the import barrier, right? So now you're back to, I don't know let's say to a neutral position. So of course it depends on several -- I don't know several assumptions. But how do you see the -- I would say parity scenario for 2020? Thank you. Daniel González: Give us a second Luiz that, I'm translating the question internally.

Luiz Carvalho

Analyst

Okay, yeah sure. Daniel González: Well, sorry, it took us some time to go over your question internally. But basically, the first part of the question has to do with M&A, and what we expect to do going forward. And if we believe that state of affairs in Argentina in any way negatively impacts our possibility of doing more deals in Vaca Muerta that's what I -- that we understood. And let me tell you two things. On the one hand, this transaction of Bandurria just happened a month ago and our 11% stake transaction happened today or last night actually. So, clearly, people are willing to invest in high-quality assets today at values, which were much higher than those that we've been seeing in the transactions over the last five years. And frankly, this proves our theory, because we've always said that, we did not want to dilute our asset base too early and therefore at lower valuations. Again, Bandurria is a perfect example of how we de-risked our block with other people's money. And we created value. Of course, the other investor also created value, but we created value for the rest in a way that we -- or most people would have not thought about. I mean, at the value that we are selling, our 11% stake, the block is worth over $900 million, just one block our third block, well behind the first two blocks in terms of production. So I think that there is a market, if we want to access of strategic investors in Vaca Muerta. Now are we working on a potential transaction? No, we are not working specifically on a transaction, but there are a couple of fields that we plan to put in production in the next couple of years that we are discussing with different partners as we always do. This is a dynamic process and we -- I have to tell you, we've never had a lack of interest in terms of potential partners to invest with us in Vaca Muerta. So bottom line nothing imminent to announce, but it's looking good in terms of what we have just seen and what we expect to see in the future.

Guillermo Nielsen

Analyst

Well, I quite frankly I had great difficulty in understanding your question. My guess is that you made a question about export parity versus import parity and what to expect for next year. I don't know I go back to my formation as a professional economist. And quite frankly today, I'm waiting for news from Vienna to see what happens if Russia gets to an understanding with Saudi Arabia about what can we expect about international prices. I think we are discussing export parity or import parity at a very, very shaky time. I don't think and I don't feel comfortable elaborating further on this. It's very unfortunately, but I think we are all -- I'm sure that most of you share my view that we don't have enough information as to confidently make projections for the coming months or for the rest of the exercise. Does it answer your question, because to begin with, I didn't fully understood your question?

Luiz Carvalho

Analyst

Sorry, if I may make the question a different way. I'm not asking for the projections about the FX rate or the Brent prices per se. I'm just asking, how do you think that YPF would address or aim to follow this volatility from the different variables through the course of 2020, because clearly in 2019 the company was unable to follow this volatility from different variables. So just trying to get a bit of a better sense on how do you think that by 2020 onwards, I mean we should see a bit more correlation between the domestic prices I guess the international prices? That was my question. I'm sorry, if I was not clear in the first one.

Guillermo Nielsen

Analyst

Well it may be the case certainly, it may be the case in particular with this very low prices we are looking in the international markets, it may well be that we get to a situation in which domestic markets are more linked to international prices. But as I said with this level of I wouldn't say volatility, but downside slide that we're going through, I don't feel confident as to elaborate further on this. But it's possible. It's possible that as you imply I think we will be more -- the domestic prices will be more connected to international prices.

Luiz Carvalho

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

From Raymond James, we have Pavel Molchanov. Please go ahead.

Pavel Molchanov

Analyst

Thank you for taking the question. You said that there is almost no gas activity in Argentina now by you or by any other producers. Does the government understand this? And is there any suggestion of creating revising the subsidy program from similar for example to 2017 that would incentivize operators to begin investing in gas once again? Daniel González: Thank you, Pavel. Yes, I -- maybe I oversimplified when I said there was no activities. Clearly no activity in Neuquén. There is some very limited drilling activity in the south, but really limited. And when I say there's no activity in Neuquén, it's not just us, it's most of the market. Now prices in Argentina for natural gas are market prices. The -- unfortunately, okay? Because we are in a oversupplied market, okay? And that's why consumers in a way are profiting from oversupply. And the alternative of import as you know because you follow closely LNG global markets. It's not as dear as it was in the past, okay? So I think the one difference to a few years ago is that shale gas development in Argentina doesn't need any subsidies, okay? And the subsidy program in place actually goes away in 2021 and 2022. I'm not sure, I think it's 2021. And we haven't heard of any plans of renewing any subsidy program, because again I don't think there's a need to renew the subsidy program. Now as I said these are market prices today oversupply at some point, not very far from today, we're going to go from oversupply to short of supply, okay? And I think prices at some point will stabilize above where they are today. And I think that's the way we're looking at -- that's why we said, hey listen, we have plenty of natural gas opportunities each and every well we have drilled in Vaca Muerta where natural gas objective has had very positive results. So we wait and see. We are not eliminating in any way the prospects that -- we are not writing off our opportunity for natural gas for the future. All we are saying is, we need a slightly higher price and more important that prices we need certainty that we're going to be able to sell our gas 360 days a year another 180. So that's what we're looking at. I think everybody understands locally, the government, the rest of the players. It's just a market in transition.

Pavel Molchanov

Analyst

Understood. And then following up on that last fall at the Analyst Day, you talked about growing production on average 5% to 7% per year over the next five years. Obviously, that will not happen in 2020. Are you still anticipating, accelerating growth to that 5% level in 2021 and beyond? Daniel González: I think so Pavel. As we said, with all the capital restrictions, we are going to -- we expect to grow crude oil production by 2% this year. So we have all the comfort that we can grow 5% or actually much higher next year. Now with gas, it's tricky because the easy answer is -- to your question is yes 2%. But from a much lower base, okay because we're going to be producing 35 million cubic meters a day. This winter where two years ago, we were producing 45 million cubic meters a day. So can we grow 5% per year out of a 35 million, yes definitely. But the base is lower than before. So all we are doing when we make restriction decisions on CapEx is try not to affect -- there's always some affection, but try to affect the less, the growth, the long-term growth prospects, okay? And I think they continue to be there. From the last Analyst Day meeting to today, we can tell you that productivity of our wells is higher costs are lower. So there's no change in the strategic direction that we outlined at that point. And I do believe that we can grow at or beyond those levels, although we are not providing any long-term growth guidance today.

Pavel Molchanov

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

From Citigroup, we have Pedro Medeiros. Please go ahead.

Pedro Medeiros

Analyst

Hey, good morning guys. So I have a couple of questions. Most of them linked to your share development plans and results. Let me start with a question on how was the performance on the fourth quarter. So considering the ongoing changes in volatility in FX oil prices and production resuming growth in some of your core assets, would you mind sharing or giving some reference of how lifting costs behaved in your core shale developments, okay? You've given that disclosure before? So I just wanted to understand how those variables have impacted lifting costs in the fourth quarter? My second question is, if you can give some business plan updates for the development of campaigns in Cluster 2 and Cluster 3, I think you have already collected some results from drilling Cluster 2. So if you mind sharing some color of how those results look like? And I have a third question around production. Thank you very much for disclosing results on your EOR tertiary pilot, it looks very interesting. And I just want to make sure I'm looking at it in the right way? You disclosed an investment of $150 million for an expected incremental production of 29 million barrels. So does that mean development costs on a marginal basis for these projects will be around $5 to $7 a barrel? Is there any meaningful impact in lifting cost? Those are my questions. Thank you. Daniel González: Hi Pedro. Well let me start from the last one. Yes the development cost for this initial deployment of EOR is very low, okay? It is the low-hanging fruit also, okay? So we cannot necessarily extrapolate this to 100% of the EOR opportunity. And as you know the EOR economics are really different to the shale, the CapEx is lower. And…

Pedro Medeiros

Analyst

Perfect Daniel. Okay. This is very useful information. If I may I have one last question around your working capital, okay? Just to get a sense if you're seeing any change in the pace of YPF receivables for your natural gas sales and around your gas and power business, okay? And if there is any change is that a concern for YPF? Daniel González: Pedro, well the most significant improvement in working capital last year had to do with the collections of the old subsidy program for natural gas supplying gas. We still have collections this year. So we should also experience a positive working capital this year. We have not seen any negative -- significant at least developments in terms of collections for our sales generally and I think you probably referred to power natural gas sold to Gamesa to the power sector. There's always a few days of delay here and there but nothing to -- for us to worry about so far.

Pedro Medeiros

Analyst

Okay, got it. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

From Barclays we have Andrew De Luca.

Andrew De Luca

Analyst

The question is for Guillermo. I was wondering -- I'm sorry to follow-up on this. But given your close linkages to the current administration is there any discussion that you guys are having with them about diesel and gasoline price increases in the near term? And just generally how should we think about this and how it ranks for importance for Argentina at this stage, given the recent downward move in international prices? And then for Dan, I have two questions for you, going back to the question on working capital. I was wondering can you just let us know what happened to inventory and the payables line during the fourth quarter, it was a pretty big contributor to liquidity? And how should we expect this to behave for the remainder of the year? And the second question that I have also is, you mentioned that there's no intention to tap the capital markets at 10% yields. But you also mentioned that your intention is to address the 2021 maturity this year. So the question is if the sovereign restructuring drives on and given your bonds are yielding anywhere from 10% to 12%, what other options are you guys considering to address the maturity, if tapping the market at 10% and above isn't an option?

Guillermo Nielsen

Analyst

Yes. Regarding your first question, I used to keep in mind that YPF although it has a government majority it is essentially a private sector company. So we don't shape up policymaking. We take government policies and we'll do the best and we do the best we can as from a private sector perspective. Of course, this does not ignore that we give feedback to the government regarding where to go and how to go on the energy sector. We do that. No doubts about it. But we are not designing the policymaking of the government we are takers of the policies implemented by the government, many of whom are under discussion internally quite frankly. Things are not -- I would say, it's not the last and final touches of policymaking what we are seeing today. This is something that is a work-in-progress let's say, so we will see how things shape up. But essentially, although obviously, I come from a political appointment, my work is essentially a private sector work.

Ignacio Rostagno

Analyst

Andrew, this is Ignacio. Concerning inventory, it is true that this quarter we saw a significant difference compared to previous ones. But I would say that this is due to -- that we -- during the year we had been increasing stocks and they were a consuming impact, partially consumed and in addition to that, we also have a better position in the cash flow because of less product imported, okay? Due to the price increases but we try to minimize the imports. So looking forward, we don't see that this would change. And if you see the whole year, in fact in 2019, it was quite balanced. So 2020 should be the same case. Daniel González: Lastly your question regarding capital markets and it's a good one. I -- nobody knows if that 10% exit deal that you see today is going to be the same yield in the remainder of the year, right? All I'm saying as today when we look at the market and there's no need for us to do anything because we don't have a maturity before the next 12 months, we decided not to do anything at these levels. We have always -- if you look at our history over the last, at least since I'm around for last eight years, we've always been very opportunistic. Every time a window of opportunity opened and we were in need of financing, we were first out there. And I think that in all we did extremely well. And that's going to be the same behavior that we're going to be pursuing this year. We are monitoring the market on an hourly basis. And when we see an opportunity to deal with future maturities, we might decide to deal with them early on. And if there is no opportunity to deal with them early on, we will deal with them at maturity. But frankly running the company with excess cash, remember that we have more than a $1 billion of cash, remember that we have put together a plan that is cash -- at least cash flow negative if not positive for the year. So we feel very comfortable that we are in a very good position to deal with this at the right time. What I cannot anticipate today is the right time it's going to be a few weeks down the road, a few months or closer to maturity.

Andrew De Luca

Analyst

Great. Thanks for the answers guys.

Operator

Operator

From BTIG, we have Daniel Guardiola. Please go ahead.

Daniel Guardiola

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, guys. I have a couple of questions here. My first question is on geographic diversification. I wanted to know if you have ever considered to actually invest in oil and gas assets out of Argentina, in order to gradually diversify your geographic exposure? So that's my first question. And my second question is regarding the performance of YPF shares. We have seen that the stocks has dramatically collapsed. And I wanted to know your thoughts on potentially putting in place a buyback program. So those are my two questions. Daniel González: Thank you, Daniel. Yes, we have many times considered. But frankly, there's no point on us with competitive advantages that we have in Argentina that we have developed in Argentina and a proof of that is how majors and some of the best players in the world come and give us money to operate for them, we don't have those same competitive advantages outside of Argentina. So trying -- maybe in the future we will but it's definitely not the case today A. And B, we have limited CapEx. We did a good part of the call today explaining why is that we are limiting CapEx for the year and that we have more opportunities to pursue than the ones that we are actually pursuing today, okay. So I think that we have plenty of food in our plates in Argentina for the short term. Now we are doing some studies of unconventionals outside of Argentina, okay? And I am not going to be elaborating further but we are doing studies. Because maybe in the future as we have become the largest shale player outside of the U.S., maybe in the future we can replicate those competitive advantages that we have in Argentina elsewhere. But it's not something which is at the top of our priorities today. On share price, I can tell you, this is a priority. Guillermo is talking to us every day about that. It was a big part of our board discussion yesterday. But again in this situation in which we are trying to preserve capital, we probably don't think that the best use of that capital again over the short-term is a buyback program. But it's definitely something that is always out there in the works for us. And that if time comes and the financial situation improves, it's something that we will seriously consider.

Daniel Guardiola

Analyst

Thank you, Daniel.

Operator

Operator

From Goldman Sachs, we have Bruno Amorim. Please go ahead.

Bruno Amorim

Analyst

Hi, good morning. So I have two questions. The first one, I just wanted some help to reconcile your guidance, you are guiding for flat net debt, which implies breakeven at the free cash flow level roughly. While you're guiding for $3 billion EBITDA to $2.8 billion CapEx…

Guillermo Nielsen

Analyst

A bit louder please?

Bruno Amorim

Analyst

Can you hear me well?

Guillermo Nielsen

Analyst

But a bit louder please? Can you repeat in louder?

Bruno Amorim

Analyst

Yes, can you hear me now?

Guillermo Nielsen

Analyst

Sure. It's better.

Bruno Amorim

Analyst

Okay. Sure. So my first question just wanted some help to reconcile the guidance. You are guiding for flat net debt which implies on breakeven at the free cash flow level. Why you are guiding for $3 billion in EBITDA and $2.8 billion in CapEx? And if you have to service the debt. So is it because you're assuming proceeds from asset sales or even the subsidies from the natural gas market? And the second question, you have already mentioned where you are creating CapEx. I know it's hard to quantify the impact on production but is there any metric you can provide us with in terms of every $500 million or every $1 billion left that you invest, what's the impact on production either in the short or the medium term? I understand you're still positive on production growth but there is some impact, right? So any metric you could provide us with would be helpful? Thank you. Daniel González: Hi, Bruno. Well on the guidance question, I think the answer to your question is twofold. On the one hand and the most relevant is definitely working capital, as it has been the case this year, look at what happened this year and you can replicate a good part of that next year. And the other part of the question is today, we are announcing a transaction in which we are going to be getting close to a $100 million. In addition to that, when Schlumberger exited, they had to contribute to us the remaining part of the carried interest commitment and that is also cash flow coming in. So rest assured that we did the math, okay? And we believe that we can have a net debt by the end of the year definitely. Now your second question is a very good one but unfortunately we don't have an answer to that other than saying that yes, there is an impact in production, definitely, especially in short term production. But as I said in one of the previous questions, I don't expect that impact to be meaningful over the long term. In a way, it's like delaying the whole development, okay? And some of our -- some of our production that maybe a year or two ago we were seeing in 2020 or 2021 moves out to 2021 and 2022. But in terms of the opportunity out there, the size of the opportunity, that hasn't changed, at least not in a negative way, because as I said earlier, every well we drill, every advance we make, we just improve our projections going forward.

Bruno Amorim

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

From JPMorgan, we have Barbara Halberstadt. Please go ahead.

Barbara Halberstadt

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Actually all my questions have been answered. So thank you.

Operator

Operator

And from Morgan Stanley, we have Yarney Levy [ph]. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, good morning. I just wanted to know if you could comment on the discussions regarding the new bill to protect your investments in Vaca Muerta? And if you -- like a company if you have a wish list of factors that should be explored in it? And a second question if I may. If you can only repeat the current discount of fuels to -- of gasoline and diesel to international parity, we did not hear it well when you commented it? Thank you.

Guillermo Nielsen

Analyst

Okay. Regarding your question about the bill, I think I do care of that with my previous intervention in the sense that we are policy takers, let's say, we are not drafting policy for the government. At the initial stage, we contributed -- myself, I contributed during the campaign for the new bill but this is a government problem. It's not a YPF problem. So we are really waiting for announcements on that respect. We don't have much to add to what you can read in the press of Argentina regarding this. Daniel González: And Yarney [ph], your second question regarding discount prices. What I said during the presentation is that our diesel prices are in no need of any further adjustment with Brent prices in the $50 range. And gasoline prices on the other hand still have some catch-up to make, which we are estimating in the 5% to 8% area.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And no further questions at this time. I'll now turn it back to our speakers for closing remarks. Daniel González: Okay. Well, thank you very much everybody. As usually Ignacio and his team are available to follow-up on any further questions. Have a great weekend.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.