Sergio Giorgi
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Thank you, Diego. As we have been flagging, and as we showed recently in our investor day in New York, safety is a core value for YPF as our daily work is done in places with flammable liquids, high pressure in confined spaces, we need to be very vigilant and ensure that all the safety measures are taken, so that we can produce, treat, transport and sell our products without harming our workers, the environment or the communities. As you can see in the chart, the current injury frequency rate, an indicator that measures the number of people injured every million hours worked, has been improving substantially in the last few years, proving that the actions that we have been taking over the last few years regarding safety measures are paying off. Despite this figure, recent events have reminded us that it’s important to remain extremely vigilant as we are now entering a phase of increased activity, particularly in our upstream operations. Let’s move now to analysis of the third quarter production. Total hydrocarbon production dropped 4.3% vis-à-vis the same quarter of 2018 to 529,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. As we mentioned before, this drop was mainly driven by NGL production that decreased 44.6% to a total of 26,900 barrels per day as a consequence of a scheduled maintenance stoppage in our affiliated company, Mega, and its main client. Crude oil production in the third quarter remained stable compared to the same quarter a year ago of 227,500 barrels of oil per day, while sequentially has increased by 1% compared with second quarter of 2018. Regarding natural gas, it is worth mentioning that Argentina is gradually shifting from a gas importer to a gas exporter. The good results obtained by YPF and by other operators developing shale gas resulted in a situation where the gas offer meets more often the gas demand and, therefore, we face a situation during the third quarter where we have to curtail some gas production mainly in our conventional fields. This resulted in a 1% decrease in our natural gas production compared to the same quarter last year, reaching 43,700,000 m³ per day. Natural gas production would have been 2% up instead of the minus 1% mentioned before if we haven’t had to curtail gas production. Indeed, we could have produced approximately 1,300,000 m³ per day of additional gas in the quarter. The situation will undoubtedly be solved in the medium term and long-term, but it poses a challenge for the short term. We have activated some short-term levers in terms of generating more demand, like exporting gas to Chile where we expect between 1,000,000 m³ per day to 2,000,000 m³ per day exports and installing a small scale LNG barge in 2019 that will allow us exporting up to 2,500,000 m³ per day, so that we don’t have to face this curtailment again. We are also actively working on medium and long-term levers, like a sizable LNG export terminal and petrochemical projects. Until then, and in order to avoid oversupply, we are redirecting more investment toward our already derisked oil production assets, and the optionality for our shale acreage allow us to do so. When we break down the sources of our production, we can observe that shale production contributed with 21,000 additional BOEs per day in the quarter, while tight production show a decrease of 10,000 BOEs per day, mainly related to a lower production of natural gas liquids as a consequence of the schedules stoppage in Mega, as explained before. As you can observe, growth is coming from our shale fields and, clearly, most of the decline came from our conventional fields. So, we would like to do a deeper analysis of these in our next slide. In this slide, you can see that our conventional production decreased by 9% vis-à-vis a year ago. As mentioned in the previous slide, production was affected by natural gas demand restriction observed during the quarter, which volumes of approximately 1,300,000 m³ per day or 8,200 barrels of oil equivalent are impacting the natural decline bar in the chart and also by the lower NGLs production due to the scheduled maintenance stoppage in Mega, as explained before. Having said that, we continue with our efforts to actively manage the decline of our conventional fields through primary, secondary, tertiary recovery and natural gas compression in order to extract a maximum value while remaining always profitable. While primary recovery is currently the main contributor to improve the recovery factor of our conventional fields, as we detailed during our investor day a few weeks ago, we are also working very hard in terms of adjusting secondary and tertiary recovery and we have run successful pilots on both, which makes us confident that we will be able to smoothen the decline in the near future. Moving now to unconventional, net shale production of the quarter reached 57,500 BOE per day, showing an increase of almost 58% compared to a year ago. If we add to our net shale production the 91,000 BOEs per day of tight gas and liquids, our total unconventional production of 148,000 BOEs per day represents now almost 28% of our total production. In terms of our activity as a shale operator, during the third quarter, we produced 97,400 BOEs per day and we connected a total of 19 new shale horizontal wells. In relation to costs, in our shale operations, the development costs in Loma Campana continues in the good trend, staying during the third quarter of the year in the $11 per BOE area; and operating expenses continued to improve, staying now at the $6 per BOE area. As we recently disclosed in our investor day, we would like to show again in this slide the progress achieved in Loma Campana during the last three years regarding well productivity since we started drilling horizontal wells. YPF has been gradually increasing the length of our horizontal drains, moving from 1,500 m in 2016 to 2,500 m in 2018. This has resulted in an increase in the number of frac stages for well and increasing production per well and an increased EUR per well. The average 2018 EUR per well is now at 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent, which represents a 35% increase versus two years ago. The cumulative wells production is also showing an increase of 40% when compared with values from two years ago. We have also put into production the first 3,200 m horizontal drain well, with 40 frac stages, a peak production of 1,500 barrels of oil per day and an estimated EUR in the order of magnitude of 1.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. We will be monitoring this well in order to define if this is going to be our new design from now on. Plus, in addition to increasing the length of our laterals, we’re also working in a number of different initiatives in order to continue optimizing our operation and reducing our cost, including high-density completion, increasing the number of wells per pad, the use of soluble plugs, new well design, use of spuder rig combining with the high-spec rig, increasing the propane plant efficiency, transgeo navigation, use of data analytics and many others. Based on all these improvements, we are planning the next developmental phase for Loma Campana, for which we’re lying [ph] with our partners. This slide summarizes the key figures for our Loma Campana second phase of development. We will drill with 4 to 5 rigs, completing around 300 new wells in the next five years. We expect to reach a plateau of about 120,000 BOE per day by 2023, growing 150% during the next five years. We will invest around $700 million per year in this development. As we mentioned during investor day a couple of weeks ago, in addition to Loma Campana phase 2, we’re also actively working with our partners to launch two other shale oil developments before the end of the year in La Amarga Chica where we are in partnership with Petronas and in Bandurria Sur where we are in partnership with Schlumberger. Moving now to our Downstream business segment, during the quarter, the volume of crude oil processed in our refineries was 280,000 barrels of oil per day, 4.6% lower than the third quarter of 2017, mainly as a result of scheduled maintenance stoppage in our industrial complexes. Regarding sales, total volumes were essentially flat as an increase in domestic volume was almost offset by lower exports. Although demand for our main products, diesel and gasoline, increased, total volumes in the local market all increased 1% as they were negatively affected by a significant reduction in fuel oil demand from power generation plants as there was more availability of natural gas. Now, to provide more detail about fuel demand, on this slide, we can see on the left-hand side how gasoline sales evolved every month compared with the previous two years; and on the right-hand side, the same for diesel oil. Gasoline and diesel demand increased by almost 3% and 9% respectively during the quarter. However, during September, the market started to show some deterioration in response to the contraction of the economy and a slowdown in consumption. In October, our preliminary figures are showing that sales volumes of both products were up compared to September, following the usual seasonal trends, but still below the volumes sold in October last year. Market share for both products continued to be strong and above 2017, with 55.7% in gasoline and 59.1% in diesel. Market share for our premium products, Infinia gasoline and Infinia diesel were 61.4% and 59.9% respectively. However, we have seen some transfer in demand from premium products to regular products. As we have been explaining in the last few months, the spike in FX coupled with an increase in international prices that happened in April put an increasing pressure to our Downstream margins as prices for gasoline and diesel were reduced in dollar terms. As we always do, and to avoid a sharp negative effect in our client base and the overall economic activity, we decided to adjust our prices gradually, and this is what we have been doing and what we will be showing in the next slide. Local crude oil prices averaged $65 per barrel during the quarter, almost 15% below Brent price as a consequence of negotiation between producers and refiners. As a consequence, our Downstream EBITDA per refined barrel, and without considering the reevaluation of inventories, decreased to $4.70 in the quarter. Finally, as we did in our investor day, we would like to address one more time what we have been doing in terms of prices and where we are heading. So, the blue line in the graph represents the evolution of the blended price of fuels in pesos since crude oil prices were liberalized in Argentina one year ago. We use import parity as the main indicator of where we should stand at a minimum. The green line shows the evolution of the import parity plus the international reference for heating oil, RBOB, and domestic biofuels. Looking at the graph, it is clear that, since April, we have been below import parity; and despite the significant price adjustment that we put in place every month, we are not able to fully catch up during the quarter as peso devaluated and crude prices were at multiyear highs. However, we have now reached import parity level in most of our fuel products, except for our regular diesel, which is still below. We will continue monitoring the market conditions and make the necessary adjustments. We do care about protecting demand. As you have observed in previous slides, in a difficult economic environment, constant or permanent price adjustments result in demand softening. Therefore, we haven't increased prices more aggressively because we believe it will have been negative to our business. This is a competitive market. Prices will be adjusted based on competitive factors as we have been and will continue to be going forward. In this slide, we would like to address our outlook for the year. Our production recovery has been challenged by the situation described before of the gas offer meeting the gas demand as we have to curtail some gas production, in addition to the longer maintenance of the Mega plant and its main client. As a result, we are revising our production target for the year that we were expecting to be around minus 2% for 2017 based on technical factors to between minus 3% to minus 4%. The final value will depend on the demand of gas during the fourth quarter of the year. However, besides this reduction, we want to highlight again our ability to continue delivering on financial target despite this challenging environment. We are, therefore, reaffirming again our guidance for 2018 of 10% growth in EBITDA in dollar terms, while net leverage should stand comfortably below the 2 times guidance. The Vaca Muerta acreage that we have been de-risking has shown excellent results. Well productivity has been improving every year as well as efficiency and cost. So, we are well-positioned now to launch new profitable developments. Along these lines, we are working on three new FIDs with our partners before the end of the year that will begin to provide higher production by mid-2019 and others will follow later on. Finally, the combination of higher oil prices and the new developments will allow us to comfortably achieve the target of keeping our reserve replacement ratio above one. With that, we would like to address your questions. Thank you.