Lanny Baker
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open
Thank you, Jeremy. Our financials story aligns with the strategic and operational one, Jeremy just described. Improvements in revenue retention in 2017 combined with sales force and sales channel expansion, contributing to advertising revenue growth of 20% for the year. Meanwhile, investment in Yelp reservations, the acquisition of Nowait and Turnstyle, which we rebranded as Yelp Wi-Fi, and establishing the partnership with Grubhub, elevated our transactional capabilities. Adjusted EBITDA grew 30% from 2016 to 2017, reaching a record $156 million. Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by about 2 percentage points year to year and we ended 2017 with over $845 million in cash and marketable securities and no debt. Heading into 2018, the growth of our mobile app and our record increase in the number of new businesses claiming their page on Yelp in 2017 provides leading indicators of the broadening appeal of our product offering. Other key business metrics are also encouraging. Compared with a year earlier, we ended 2017 with sales force growth up, revenue churn down and advertiser account growth improved. Our business outlook for 2018 anticipates revenue growth of 18% to 22% over 2017, adjusted for the sale of Eat24 in the fourth quarter of '17. We expect to grow adjusted EBITDA by a high teens rate in 2018. I will get into the outlook details in a few minutes but first let me briefly review fourth quarter and 2017 results. Fourth quarter revenue of $218 million was $2 million above the high end of our expectations, driven by stronger local advertising revenue and higher than expected revenue per order from Eat24 in the transition to Grubhub. Advertising revenue of $208 million in the fourth quarter was up 18% year-over-year with the self serve channel growing fastest, followed by national then local. Paying advertiser accounts grew by 7600 from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, reaching $163,000 for the fourth quarter, up 21% from fourth quarter 2016 on an easier year ago comparison. As we have indicated previously, we turned a corner on local revenue retention at the end of the first quarter of 2017. In each successive quarter, we built a wider gap between 2016 and 2017 revenue retention levels. In fact, December was the most improved month of the year and the gains in revenue retention were important contributors to fourth quarter and full year ad revenue growth. Turning to non-advertising revenue. We generated transaction revenue of $5 million in the fourth quarter of 2017 and $60 million for the full year. Both of those numbers include revenue from Eat24 for periods prior to its sales on October 10. For the fourth quarter, approximately $2 million in transaction revenue came from Eat24 prior to sale. For the full year of 2017, Eat24 contributed $54 million in transaction revenue prior to sale. Quarter by quarter revenue figures for Eat24 are shown in a table at the end of our fourth quarter earnings release. One final point of clarification. We are temporarily recognizing a small amount of extra revenue per order from the Grubhub partnership. This relates to the pass through of certain Eat24 payments processing fees and amounted to roughly $1 million in additional revenue and $1 million in additional cost of sales during the fourth quarter. We expect to see a final $1 million in revenue and $1 million cost of sales from this source in the first quarter of 2018. After that, we will continue to generate transaction revenue under the standard terms of our five year partnership with Grubhub. Finally, other services revenue for the fourth quarter was $4.6 million, reflecting an increase in the number of restaurants and local business who will become customers of Yelp Reservations, Nowait and Yelp Wi-Fi marketing. On the expense and profitability side of the fourth quarter, total expenses were up 16% year to year with gross margins up about 1 percentage point quarter on quarter, primarily reflecting the sale of Eat24. Operating expenses were $196 million for the fourth quarter as sales and marketing costs rose 19% year to year and product development expenses grew by 30% year to year. Meanwhile, we reduced G&A expenses year to year. Depreciation and amortization was roughly flat and stock based compensation was up 6% over the fourth quarter of 2016, reflecting purposeful management of these items. Where expenses rose more quickly in the fourth quarter, the primary factor was an increase in employee numbers. We grew our advertising sales force by roughly 250 people during the fourth quarter and at the end of the year we had 3300 people in ad sales and customer success. Up 32% from the year end 2016. Although this investment increased sales and marketing expenses relative to revenue in the fourth quarter, we now entered 2018 with a larger team focused on ad revenue growth and additional resources to funnel towards our other sales teams. To be clear, we remain strategically committed to growing our self serve, national and partner sales channels and we expect to capture an increasing proportion of our opportunity via these avenues in coming years. At the same time, the effectiveness and economics of our core local sales rep model are compelling and we view our multichannel strategy as a competitive advantage that is an and question rather than an either/or. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $41.6 million, at the high end of our business outlook range. As anticipated, adjusted EBITDA margins were down year to year in the quarter, reflecting the hiring and investments I spoke of a moment ago. During 2017, we took steps to rein in stock based compensation and slow the rate of growth in Yelp's share count. At the end of 2017, we have repurchased and retired $13 million of Yelp stock under a $200 million share repurchase authorization granted in July. Our fully diluted share count averaged $89 million during the fourth quarter, up 5.5% from the same quarter of 2016. We have managed our share repurchase authorization conservatively thus far and we plan to be opportunistic about repurchases in 2018. With the strength of our balance sheet, we feel well positioned to manage dilution while preserving strategic flexibility. Let me now turn to our operating plan and our business outlook for the coming year. Based on the products, sales and customer success groundwork laid in 2017, we believe Yelp is positioned to achieve strong growth in advertising accounts and advertising revenue in 2018 and we expect increased profitability within the core Yelp advertising business again in 2018. As Jeremy indicated, we are giving advertisers more control over their ads and we have begun to offer contract terms that are more dynamic without multi-month or annual term commitments. Business owners have responded favorably to these and other changes and we have begun to see an uptick in new advertiser acquisition. We plan to move cautiously, recognizing that changes such as these are likely to increase trial purchases and may prompt greater on and off activity amongst some of our advertisers. At the same time, our experience and our analysis indicated that the sales productivity and revenue benefits of moving in this direction will be clear net positives for the business. Furthermore, we believe our expanded customer success function has the capacity to respond to changes in revenue retention that may emerge. You will see some of our caution expressed in a wider range of expected revenue outcomes within our 2018 business outlook. Turning to the next piece of our plan for 2018, we intend to invest in Yelp Reservations, Nowait and Yelp Wi-Fi with the objective of increasing user engagement and transaction activity within the restaurant category, as well as generating additional subscription revenue. These strategic investments are expected to initially dampen adjusted EBITDA growth and margin expansion in 2018 while solidifying our competitive position and setting up stronger financial growth in the long term. To grow these businesses and increase the value they bring to the Yelp user experience, we are going city by city to build local density. The sales people taking these products to market are separate from the advertising sales team we report on each quarter and we plan to staff these teams from the ranks of our core Yelp ad sales team over time. We expect to incur operating losses in these businesses of $20 million to $25 million in 2018 and this is reflected within our business outlook for the year. Finally, we expect to grow advertising revenue in the home and local category faster than in other categories in 2018, partly as a function of the heightened appeal of Request to Quote. Our experiments to develop a take rate model for our Request to Quote, will move rapidly throughout the year. However, we have not incorporated a revenue contribution from take rates into our current 2018 outlook. Taking these items together, we expect full year 2018 revenue in the range of $935 million to $965 million. On an apples to apples to basis, excluding Eat24 from the 2017 base year, we expect revenue growth in the range of 18% to 22% for 2018. On a reported basis, revenue growth is expected to be in the 10% to 14% range for the year. Going one level deeper, we currently anticipate ad revenue growth in the high teens to 20% range for 2018, fueled by the recent growth of our local sales force, the launch of our new Washington DC office and another year of strong gains in the self serve channel. On the transaction line, revenue is expected to be in the $10 million range for 2018 with the bulk of that coming from the Grubhub partnership. We expect Grubhub's supply of orderable and deliverable restaurants to be integrated into Yelp by midyear. Other services revenue is expected to grow in the mid 30% range year over year to roughly $20 million for 2018. Based on our current plans and business outlook, we expect overall operating expense growth in the low to mid teens for 2018 versus 2017. Product development and sales and marketing are expected to drive the vast majority of expense growth in 2018 and both of these are driven by headcount. We expect depreciation and amortization to be 5% of revenue in 2018 and stock based compensation is anticipated to be approximately $150 million. For the full year of 2018, our business outlook is for adjusted EBITDA of $175 million to $187 million, including the investments I mentioned a moment ago. At the midpoint, this range should represent 16% growth over 2017. Although we anticipate positive pretax income in 2018, our tax provision should remain small in the coming year and we do not expect material benefit from the change in corporate tax rates this year. Turning to the first quarter of 2018, we currently anticipate revenue of $218 million to $221 million. Adjusting for the disposition of Eat24, the outlook range implies revenue growth of 22% year-over-year on a comparable basis. We expect adjusted EBITDA of $29 million to $32 million for the first quarter of 2018 versus $29 million in the first quarter of 2017. As with the full year, investments in our restaurant strategy will reduce operating leverage as will the recent growth in our sales headcount during the first quarter. Looking into future quarters, we anticipate that the sales force expense effect will reverse itself as reps come up to normal production curve. Other details of our first quarter outlook are laid out within the earnings release published today. Wrapping up, we concluded 2017 with encouraging business momentum and having made tangible progress against our primary strategic objectives. With the growth of the Yelp mobile app to nearly 30 million unique devices per month, we have extended our leadership in local and expanded the highly engaged community of consumers and businesses connecting with each other on Yelp. As we go into 2018, we expect to capitalize on our accomplishments of the prior year in areas such as customer success, performance marketing, sales hiring and product innovation to deliver strong and consistent revenue growth in the coming year. We also plan to evolve our tactics and pursue new investments in 2018 that we believe will deliver financial and strategic benefits long into the future. And with that, we will take your questions.