Leslie Varon
Analyst · Cross Research. Your line is now open
Thanks, Ursula, and good morning everyone. I will start by walking through our results and then covering 2016 guidance before handing it back to Ursula to wrap up. In summary, we delivered solid results in quarter four. Services came in above our expectations, driven by good sequential margin improvement. Document Technology revenue was weaker than anticipated, primarily driven by lower supply sales, but margin remained in the middle of our range reflecting our ongoing cost discipline and business model flexibility. Q4 cash flow as anticipated was seasonally strong and drove $1.6 billion of full year operating cash flow resulting in a healthy ending cash balance of $1.4 billion. During the year, we returned a substantial amount of cash to our shareholders with $1.3 billion in share repurchases and $326 million in dividends. Turning to the earnings slide, I will walk through the income statement. Revenue in the quarter was down 8% at actual currency and 5% at constant currency. Currency cost us approximately $150 million on the top line. Services’ top line was flat at constant currency, helped by solid 3% growth in Document Outsourcing, offsetting a 2% decline in BPO. Document Technology declined 10% at constant currency and drove the overall revenue decline. I will speak more about the drivers when I review the segments. Gross margin of 31.3% was down 80 basis points year-over-year, but up 40 basis points sequentially. Sequential improvement was driven by Services, while the year-over-year decline was driven by Document Technology as well as a greater mix of services, which carries a lower gross margin. RD&E was lower by $5 million year-over-year and SAG was down $59 million or 6%. Good expense reductions in absolute terms, but not sufficient to offset revenue declines, so operating margin of 9.2% was down 120 basis points year-over-year and operating profit declined 18%. Adjusted other net expense was down year-over-year, driven by lower restructuring costs as anticipated in our quarter four guidance. Equity income was $32 million in the quarter, down $9 million year-over-year, reflecting lower profits in Fuji Xerox driven in part by the continued negative impact of translation currency. Our quarter four adjusted tax rate of 21% was below our guidance of 25% to 27%, benefiting our earnings by about $0.02 and reflecting the impact of recent U.S. tax legislation that extends R&D tax credits. Bottom line, despite revenue headwinds, we delivered solid Q4 adjusted earnings of $0.32. Moving on to our Services results, while many of the headwinds we have highlighted in the past continue, the benefits of the new operating model are beginning to be realized. Services revenue declined 3% and was flat at constant currency, consistent with both Q3 and full year performance. BPO was down 2% as a result of lower new contract ramp from softer signings in earlier quarters and our decision last quarter to reduce our financial risk and not fully complete the Health Enterprise Medicaid platform implementation in Montana and California. Good growth continues in Document Outsourcing, up 3%, driven by strong Xerox Partner print services growth as well as strong equipment revenue growth in enterprise accounts following continued good signings. In terms of the opportunity ahead, total signings in the quarter were up 26% year-over-year and 8% for the trailing 12 months. New business signings were up 22% year-over-year in quarter four. This really strong growth includes the Florida tolling contract. We are pleased to close on this contract and begin implementing a comprehensive tolling solution that leverages our best-in-class proven Vector tolling platform. Excluding the Florida contract, new business signings were up 10% in quarter four, so a very good signings quarter. Our renewal rate in the quarter was 78%, below our 85% to 90% target range and reflects in part, one larger loss renewal opportunity, which would have been financially unattractive. Services segment margin was 9.4%, down 40 basis points year-over-year, but up 130 basis points sequentially and above our 9% Q4 margin expectation. The set of services decisions and actions we implemented last year are beginning to deliver better results. We have recognized that we still have work to do. First, to continue the grow signings and translate that into revenue growth. Second, to improve our business mix with a greater proportion of our revenue from higher value offerings. And finally, to capture additional efficiency, including streamlining and automating more of our delivery capabilities. I will now turn to Document Technology. Revenue in the quarter was down 10% at constant currency with the additional quarter four weakness coming from lower U.S. supply sales, driven in large part by channel dynamics. For the full year, revenue was down 8%, below our initial 2015 expectation of a mid single-digit decline. The largest driver was a developing markets weakness throughout the year. The Document Technology revenue decline is almost half when the growth from Document Outsourcing is included along with Document Technology. Activity in the quarter was mixed with good growth in a number of color segments, partially offset by the lapping of prior year product launches in areas such as entry production color. Overall, 2015 was a lighter product introduction year and we look forward to more launches in 2016 starting this quarter with a broad office product refresh following – followed by a number of exciting production printing announcements we will be making at Drupa, the printing trade show which occurs every 4 years in Germany. Document Technology margin of 11.8% was in line with our full year guidance of 11% to 13%. Ongoing disciplined cost base management and the flexibility of our business model we are able to partially offset the higher revenue decline, negative mix from lower supplies and higher pension expense. Moving to cash flow, we had a strong post to the year for operating cash flow and a very good full year for free cash flow, which was $1.3 billion. This enables us to continue to invest in select growth opportunities and return value to shareholders through repurchases and dividends. Cash from operations was $878 million in the quarter and $1.6 billion for the year in line with our full year guidance. Q4 cash generation was roughly flat to the prior year and reflected higher working capital contribution, higher discretionary pension contribution and normal strong quarter four seasonality. Investing cash flows were $19 million used with $80 million spent on CapEx and $9 million on acquisitions partially offset by proceeds from surplus property sales. Cash flow from financing was a $278 million used, including debt reduction of $199 million and $77 million for preferred and common stock dividends. Our cash balance at the end of quarter four was $1.4 billion providing us with flexibility as we enter 2016. Turning to our capital structure, we ended quarter four with $7.4 billion in debt, a $200 million reduction in the fourth quarter and a $374 million reduction for the year, consistent with our expectations. Applying 7 to 1 leverage on customer financing assets, our allocated financing debt at the end of quarter four was $3.9 billion, leaving core debt of $3.5 billion. We continue to manage our capital structure to maintain credit metrics consistent with our investment grade credit rating. Turning to capital allocation, 2015 was another year of strong capital returns to shareholders. We repurchased 1.3 billion in shares, resulting in almost 10% reduction in shares outstanding. We also delivered $326 million in dividends, which included a 12% per share increase to the common stock dividend. Over four years, we have almost doubled our common stock dividend when including the 11% increase we announced today. So in total, we have returned over $1.6 billion to our shareholders, greater than free cash flow of $1.3 billion with the incremental capital coming from part of the IPO sale proceeds. We are steadfast in our commitment to return capital to shareholders and be good stewards. And we have a strong track record to backup that commitment having returned greater than 50% of free cash flow to shareholders each year over the past 5 years. For 2016, we plan once again to deploy greater than 50% of our free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchase, while balancing our need to manage our debt to a level, which is consistent with our investment grade credit rating. We also intend to support our longer term growth objectives and plan to invest $100 million to $400 million on acquisitions with the focus continuing to be on expanding our capabilities in attractive markets. Before reviewing our 2016 guidance, I would like to highlight a few reporting changes we will be making beginning this year. These changes will bring our reporting and guidance practices more in line with our peers. I will briefly summarize the changes and note that we have a full explanation on Slide 25 in the appendix. We will exclude three additional items from adjusted earnings to give a clearer picture of underlying operating performance. These items include restructuring expenses, certain retirement related costs and transaction costs from the planned separation and strategic transformation. Retirement related costs will also be adjusted out of our segment results and we are moving to student loan business that we are running off from the services segment to the other segment. Finally starting in 2016, we will include developing markets within our constant currency calculations to give a truer picture of our constant currency revenue performance. We have additional information on these reporting changes in the appendix, including revised results for 2015 that will provide a comparable basis for 2016. Moving to our 2016 guidance on this basis, we anticipate full year constant currency revenue to decline 2% to 4% with flat to 3% growth in services more than offset by declines of 5% to 7% in Document Technology. At January 15 spot rates we anticipate a negative currency impact on revenue of 1% to 2% for the full year with a higher impact in the first half than the second. Considering the uncertain macro environment, we don’t expect our revenue to deviate substantially from trend, but we do expect modest improvement in both segments as we move through the year and lap the onset of some headwinds in both Document Technology and Services. We expect Document Technology margin to be roughly in line with 2015, that’s within a 12% to 14% range, excluding retirement related costs. We expect Services margin to improve and be in a range of 8% to 9.5%. Adjusted earnings guidance of $1.10 to $1.20 represents a 3% to 12% growth from 2015. Finally, we expect to generate operating cash flow of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion and invest $300 million in CapEx, yielding $1 billion to $1.2 billion in free cash flow. This guidance is below 2015 cash flow as it includes settlement outflows associated with our decision last quarter to not fully complete the Health Enterprise Medicaid platform implementations in Montana and California, as well as a higher than normal level of restructuring as we implement our strategic transformation program. Transactional-related costs associated with the separation are still being estimated and aren’t yet reflected in our cash flow or GAAP earnings guidance. For quarter one, we expect adjusted earnings per share between $0.21 and $0.24. So to summarize for quarter one and full year 2016, we have set achievable objectives that reflect first, improvement in the business tied to the actions and investments we have made over the past year; second, prudent expectations given economic uncertainties and headwinds; and finally, continued investment in the business and implementation of the first year of strategic transformation activities that will further prepare the Document Technology and BPO businesses to be strong, standalone companies. With that, I will hand it back to Ursula to wrap up.