Luca Maestri
Analyst · Ben Reitzes with Barclays Capital
Thank you, Ursula, and good morning, everyone. I will begin by reviewing our earnings and then spend some time on our segment performance, cash flow and capital allocation. During the quarter revenue declined 1% on a constant-currency basis. We expected Document Technology revenue to be pressured, given a tough year-on-year compare, and in the end, a decline of 7% at constant currency was about 1 point below what we expected, driven by weakness in equipment revenue. However, segment margins remained healthy. In services, revenue continue to show strong growth at 6% constant currency, but margins were below expectations, driven by pressures on a number of government contracts, as well as lower volumes in some areas. As the result of these trends, we expect total revenues in Q4 to be flat year-over-year. The margin dynamics in Services drove an operating margin decline of 100 basis points. The bottom line impact was partially offset by improvement in technology margin and continued efficiency and productivity actions on the expense side. Restructuring was $18 million higher year-over-year, and as a reminder, is fully reflected in our adjusted results. Equity income was $9 million lower year-over-year, driven mainly by higher Fuji Xerox restructuring. Given the impacts of macro uncertainty, the government budgetary environment and declines in Document Technology, it's important that we continue to proactively manage the cost base of our business. As a result, we will also be taking a restructuring charge during Q4, which we are in the process of assessing, and will likely be in the $50 million to $100 million range. This action will put us in a stronger position entering 2013 and will address productivity opportunities across the enterprise, primarily in the Services segment. Adjusted EPS of $0.25 was down $0.01 from 2011 with the only adjustment to reported EPS being the amortization of intangibles. Moving on to segment performance, and we'll start with services. We continue to see good revenue growth, up 6% during Q3. BPO revenue was up 9%, ITO was up 6%, and both were pretty consistent with the first half. Document Outsourcing growth of 4% slowed a couple of points mainly due to lower volumes, but overall, it is showing good momentum. Year-to-date through September, BPO is up 10% constant currency, and the entire Services business is up 8%. The 2 areas I would like to spend more time discussing are signings and margins, beginning with signings. Although they were up 19% sequentially, signings came in below our expectations and were down around 20% year-over-year. Certainly, 2011 was an outstanding signings year with several mega deals. In contrast, this year, we have had smaller-sized deals, contract lengths have been shorter, and we are seeing customer decision delays caused by the increased economic uncertainty. Q4, we'll have another difficult compare, but we expect to see sequentially higher new business signs, and we remain pleased with our high success rate on renewals. I also want to point out 3 positives that are not reflected in the signings data. Document Outsourcing signings, given reporting limitations, do not include Partner Print Services, which have been growing very strongly. Second, the improvement in renewal rate this year creates less of a headwind from contract losses as we move into 2013. And third, our pipeline is up 9% year-over-year, and it is at an all-time high. Turning to margins, which were well below our expectations, we had anticipated sequentially flat margins, but we experienced a sequential decline of 120 basis points due to 2 primary factors. Government was the largest driver of the sequential miss. Within government, we specifically had to absorb in Q3 the defunding of a signed contract, which we got a write-off. Additionally, budgetary forces are preventing government from moving forward on historically routine infrastructure advancements, which is lessening our add-on services opportunities. The second factor is lower volumes in some transactional areas. Given the view that this environment will not change in the near term, we will be looking to proactively manage our cost structuring investments to counter these pressures. Going forward, we expect sequential margin improvement in Q4 and for the foreseeable future, a Services segment margin range of 10% to 12%. Let's now turn to the Technology segment. Technology revenue was down 7% and document-related revenues, which includes Document Outsourcing, were down 4% at constant currency. The decline was driven by a 15% equipment revenue decline and a 7% decline in unbundled supplies. Equipment revenue decline reflects greater uncertainty in the macro environment with increasing pressure in the U.S. and continued weakness in Europe. It should also be noted that the trend in revenues is worsened by the prior year tsunami impacts, which disrupted supply in Q2 of 2011 and saw recovery in Q3. We estimate that this specific impact caused revenue deterioration between 1 to 2 points year-over-year in Q3. Looking at product segments. We saw good growth in entry installs from new products and relative strengths in SMB. High end had good color install growth, driven primarily by entry production products. Mix in high end should improve with the recent launches of our latest iGen device and the new Nuvera platform announced at Graph Expo. And lastly, mid-range was weaker, reflecting cautionary purchasing trends in large enterprises. This was the segment where we saw the greatest impact from the tsunami on the prior year compare. We expect equipment revenue to be pressured again in Q4 and therefore, for total revenue to be down mid single digits in Technology. Segment margin of 10.8% was up 50 basis points from 2011 and reflect a continued good cost and expense control, as well as a gain that we realized as a result of the sale of a portion of our finance receivables. Turning to the Key Metrics slide. Services signings have been lower this year driven by less mega deals and decision delays, as discussed. But our pipeline remains strong, up 9% year-over-year. And with the improved renewal rate performance, we continue to be well positioned for good revenue growth in 2013. Document Technology metrics remain relatively stable as does technology annuity revenue. Install growth is good overall. Machines in field is actually improving, and page volumes, although a bit weaker, driven by Europe, are still relatively in check. The one metric to turn negative was Color revenue largely as a function of the lower equipment revenue and the tsunami compare. If we now turn to the next slide, I will take a moment to review Q3 cash flow. Cash from operations were the source of $594 million, $228 million higher than Q3 of 2011. Through September, cash flow was $807 million, $124 million higher than in 2011. This is in line with our expectations, and we remain well on track for $2 billion to $2.3 billion of operating cash flow for the year. Looking specifically at the drivers in the quarter, net income and depreciation were a source of $627 million. Cash contributions to our global pension plans in Q3 were $73 million, which was $152 million lower than 2011, primarily due to the timing cadence this year versus last. Through September, pension contributions were $310 million versus $348 million in 2011. For the full year, they would be about $75 million lower year-over-year, driven by the change in funding requirements brought about by recent pension legislation in the U.S. Working capital, including finance receivables and operating leases, was essentially neutral to cash in the quarter. Within this, accounts receivable was a $390 million use of cash, and finance receivables was a $412 million source. The driver of this movement was a change in our lease financing strategy, which resulted in cash proceeds from a finance receivable sale of $314 million, offset for the most part by lower accounts receivable factoring. In 2012, we have undertaken a thorough review of our leasing strategy, which validated for us the operational value and strong financial contribution of our leasing business but also identified some opportunities in our approach relative to the diversity and matching of our funding to our leases. We have a plan over time to improve the efficiency of our funding and employing a modest amount of finance receivables sales such as we did this quarter is one element of that plan. Moving down the cash flow. We spent $140 million on CapEx consistent with our annual forecast of around $500 million and deployed $156 million on 3 acquisitions, which support our services expansion and SMB distribution strategies. Dividends paid were $69 million, and we repurchased 361 million of stock for a total of 718 million repurchased through Q3. On the next slide, I will cover in more detail our capital structure and our progress on capital allocation. Our Q3 ending debt balance of $9.4 billion reflect the typical seasonality of our business. We expect strong cash generation in Q4, as usual, and we continue to plan for $8.6 billion for year-end debt. The majority of our debt, $5.4 billion, of the total $9.4 billion debt balance is in support of our financing of Xerox equipment to our customers. The finance debt is calculated assuming a 7:1 leverage of our finance assets of $6.2 billion. These finance assets represent committed revenue streams from our customers. Shifting to capital allocation. We are well on track to meet all our objectives for the year. Free cash flow will be in the guidance range of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion and will be deployed in line with our original commitments. Year-to-date, we have repurchased 718 million shares and continue to expect to repurchase 900 million to 1.1 billion for the year. We will spend $243 million on acquisitions, and we expect to be in the $300 million to $400 million range full year. And dividend payments will be in the $300 million range. So we are confident to meet our commitments on all fronts. During our November investor conference, we will provide a view of our capital allocation strategy for 2013. In closing, we have seen increasing headwinds in areas more sensitive to the economy, and we will continue to adjust our business as appropriate to respond to these pressures while continuing to invest in the growth of our Services business and maintaining leadership in Technology. With that, I will hand it back to Ursula.