Herman Cueto
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Thanks, Simon. Good morning and thank you all for joining us. Today, I will cover our fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results as well as the 2025 outlook. Before we turn to discussion on our non-GAAP fourth quarter financial results, let me mention impairments recorded in the fourth quarter. We recorded noncash charges for the impairment of goodwill and other intangibles of approximately $370 million net of tax within the orthodontic and implant solutions and Connected Technology Solutions segments. These charges were largely the result of weakened demand from sustained macroeconomic and competitive pressures in implants and equipment. Also included in the charges was a full write-off of the bike trademark as we do not plan to use it in the future operating model of our aligner business. Now, let me cover the full year '24 bridge from latest guidance as shown on Slide 5. Since November, revenue was negatively impacted by an incremental $29 million associated with Byte estimated customer refunds recognized in Q4. The remaining business performed approximately $17 million better than expected, primarily driven by stronger CTS sales in Europe. Similarly, Byte impacted adjusted EPS by an incremental $0.24 which also contributed to a higher tax rate. The remaining business drove approximately $0.07 of adjusted EPS outperformance. Moving to Slide 6. Our fourth quarter revenue was $905 million, representing a reported sales decline of 10.6% and organic sales decline of 10.7%. Two discrete items impacted our fourth quarter results. First, the voluntary suspension of sales and marketing of Byte aligners resulted in a charge for customer refunds above what we contemplated on our November call. In total, Byte had a $62 million year-over-year impact in Q4. Second was the timing of EDS distributor orders placed ahead of our November 1 ERP deployment which resulted in an approximately $20 million shift between quarters. As we previously disclosed, this positively impacted Q3 and negatively impacted Q4 but had no effect on full year sales. Other drivers were soft retail demand in CAD/CAM, primarily in the U.S. and a decline in IPS. This was partially offset by growth in Europe, Global Imaging, SureSmile and Wellspect. EBITDA margins declined 290 basis points in the quarter, mainly due to a lower gross margin which contracted 240 basis points, largely driven by Byte. Our continued focus on reducing OpEx partially offsets the decline. Adjusted EPS in the quarter was $0.26, down 41.3% from the prior year due to lower margins and a higher tax rate. In the fourth quarter, we generated $87 million of operating cash, down 45.6% year-over-year due to timing of working capital adjustments as well as refunds issued to Byte customers. Let's now turn to fourth quarter segment performance on Slide 7. Starting with the Essential Dental Solutions segment which includes endo, resto and preventive products, organic sales declined 3.4%, driven by the previously mentioned impact from the timing of U.S. distributor orders. Excluding this impact, EDS benefited from stable patient traffic in the quarter and higher volumes in Rest of World. Shifting to the Orthodontic & Implant Solutions segment, organic sales declined 28.7% primarily driven by the $62 million year-over-year impact from Byte. SureSmile grew low single digits globally, supported by another quarter of 20%-plus growth in Europe and mid-single-digit growth in rest of world. When we look at SureSmile aligner specifically, we delivered another quarter of high single-digit growth. Organic sales in implants and prosthetics increased sequentially but declined high single digits versus the prior year quarter due to lower lab volumes and lower implant sales in the U.S. Wrapping up our dental performance, CTS, our Connected Technology Solutions segment saw organic sales decline 8.2% versus the prior year quarter. Our global CAD/CAM business declined double digits, driven by the softer retail demand environment in the U.S., while Germany was a bright spot for CAD/CAM, delivering growth for a second consecutive quarter. We were pleased to see the equipment and instruments business return to growth in the quarter, posting low single-digit improvement. This quarter represented the highest sales in 6 quarters and as Simon said, Imaging benefited from the relaunch of Orthophos SL in Europe and APAC and improved focus on commercial execution led to performance ahead of our internal expectations. Moving to Wellspect; organic sales grew 6.7%, driven by growth across all 3 regions as new product launches continue to positively contribute. Now, let's move to Slide 8 to discuss fourth quarter financial performance by region. U.S. sales declined 29.9%, the majority of which was driven by Byte, CAD/CAM and the previously mentioned EDS timing impact. This was partially offset by growth in Imaging, Wellspect and low single-digit growth in Endo, driven by continued adoption of our X-Smart Pro+ Motor. U.S. CTS distributor inventory levels decreased sequentially in the quarter by approximately $45 million. This represents a $15 million year-over-year decrease in distributor inventory. Relative to historical averages, distributor inventory levels remain low. Turning to Europe; organic sales increased 1.8% with CTS, SureSmile and Wellspect driving the growth. SureSmile sales increased over 20%, with notable growth in Italy and Spain. CTS grew mid-single digits with equipment and instruments posting double-digit growth for the quarter. Germany which is our largest market in the region, had the highest quarter of sales in the last 7 quarters as imaging performance rebounded and commercial execution improved. Rest of World organic sales declined 2%, driven by declines in CTS and lab. EDS organic sales grew high single digits from increased volumes and strong Endo performance in China. Implants for the quarter, despite a difficult comp in China as a result of the volume-based procurement program. Now, let's turn to Slide 9 to briefly cover our full year '24 performance. Sales for the full year were $3.79 billion representing a reported sales decline of 4.3% and organic sales decline of 3.5%. Foreign currency translation negatively impacted sales by $34 million or 80 basis points due to a stronger dollar versus most major currencies. The majority of the negative impact was driven by CTS and Byte. CTS declined high single digits and was negatively impacted by competitive market pressures as well as higher interest rates in the U.S., Germany and other developed markets that dampened capital equipment purchasing over the course of the year. Despite this, we took actions that drove improvement in the second half of the year including the Orthophos SL relaunch. IDS was negatively impacted by a double-digit decline in lab partially offset by growth in implants, mostly attributed to the strong first half performance in China. Performance bright spots for the year included mid-single-digit growth in SureSmile with aligners growing double digit double-digit growth in China and mid-single-digit growth for Wellspect. EBITDA margins contracted 80 basis points to 16.6%, driven by lower gross margin attributed to lower volumes and product mix in CTS as well as Byte. This was partially offset by OpEx savings from foundational initiatives. Adjusted EPS was $1.67 for the year. Operating cash flow was $461 million, up 22.3% year-over-year, driven by timing of customer collections and changes in inventory and other working capital measures. Free cash flow conversion was 83%, representing a year-over-year increase of over 40%. The company finished the year with $272 million of cash and cash equivalents and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of approximately 3x. The increase was partially attributed to the Byte suspension. In 2024, we returned $376 million in capital to our shareholders through $250 million of share repurchases and our quarterly dividends. As of December 31, 2024, the company had $1.2 billion of remaining board authorization available for future share repurchases. Next, let me cover our 2025 outlook on Slide 10. For 2025, we expect organic sales to be down 2% to 4% including a negative 2% Byte sales impact which represents a net sales range of $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion. We expect FX to be a headwind to reported sales based on current rates and we remain cautious on the macro environment, particularly for equipment. We expect SureSmile and Wellspect to continue to drive growth in 2025, partially offsetting anticipated declines in CTS. In EDS, we expect growth in line with global patient traffic which remained largely stable in 2024, augmented by recent product launches such as the X-Smart Pro+. We also believe the actions taken in 2024 and those planned for 2025 will improve our commercial execution and performance in areas like CTS and Implants. We expect EBITDA margin to be greater than 18% in 2025 with margin improving as we progress through the year based on the timing of investments and restructuring savings. We project an increase in the full year tax rate due to geographic income mix and the unfavorable impact of certain declining performance trends which have occurred over the last few years. We expect adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $1.80 to $2. In Q1, we expect organic sales to decline high single digits year-over-year primarily due to Byte and current headwinds impacting CTS in the U.S. which has a tough comparison in CAD/CAM, largely attributed to lower expected distributor inventory levels in Q1. This contributes to an outsized manufacturing absorption impact in the quarter. With that said, we anticipate margin expansion over the course of the year as forecasted volume increases drive operational improvements. For purposes of modeling adjusted EBITDA margin and EPS, please look to the fourth quarter of 2024 as we expect to be in line to slightly ahead of those results. Slide 11 shows our adjusted EPS bridge, listing some of the major driver items. We wanted to try and break this down for you and walk through the moving parts. Let me start with where we finish 2024 with adjusted EPS of $1.67. We then add back onetime Byte items of $0.24 that we spoke about earlier. This gives an updated base of $1.91. From there, we layer in negative $0.02 EPS impact from expected lower organic sales. We expect a combined $0.20 EPS benefit from transformational initiatives and reduction of Byte resources. An anticipated roughly 300 basis point increase in the tax rate translates to an $0.08 headwind. Net-net, this yields approximately 5% growth in adjusted EPS on an FX-neutral basis. FX is expected to be a headwind of about $0.11 for 2025. With that, I will turn the call back over to Simon.