Operator
Operator
Good day everyone and welcome to this Exxon Mobil Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations and Secretary, Mr. Jeff Woodbury. Please go ahead. Jeffrey J. Woodbury - Vice President, Investor Relations & Secretary: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, good morning and welcome to Exxon Mobil's fourth quarter and full year 2015 earnings call. My comments this morning will refer to the slides that are available through the Investors section of our website. Before we go further, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement shown on slide two. Now turning to slide three, let me begin by summarizing the key headlines of our performance. Exxon Mobil generated full year earnings of $16.2 billion and fourth quarter earnings of $2.8 billion. These results reflect proven strategies that we've consistently applied for decades along with a relentless focus on the business fundamentals, including project execution and effective cost management. While our Upstream financial results reflect the challenging business environment, stronger performance in our Downstream and Chemical segments highlights the resilience of our integrated businesses. Exxon Mobil completed six major Upstream projects during the year. These new developments in Canada, Indonesia, Norway, the United States and West Africa added 300,000 oil equivalent barrels per day of working interest production capacity and contributed 3.2% volumes growth. Strong operating performance of the base portfolio along with these project efficients delivered full year production of 4.1 million oil equivalent barrels per day, consistent with our plans. The corporation's 2015 cash flow from operations and asset sales were $32.7 billion, with positive free cash flow of $6.5 billion despite sharply lower crude oil and natural gas prices. Moving to slide four, we provide an overview of some of the external factors affecting our results. Global economic growth continued to slow during the fourth quarter across nearly all major economies. In the US, estimates show growth softening further since the third quarter. In Asia, China continued to decelerate with significant volatility in the financial sector. And Japan experienced ongoing economic weakness, whereas Europe's economy remained stable with continued tempered growth. Crude oil prices extended declines on global oversupply conditions and natural gas prices moved lower, reflecting unseasonably warm weather through the quarter. Furthermore, global refining and chemical margins weakened due to lower seasonal fuels demand and decreased chemical realizations. Turning now to the financial results shown on slide five. As indicated, fourth quarter earnings were $2.8 billion or $0.67 per share. Corporation distributed $3.6 billion to shareholders in the quarter through dividends and share purchases to reduce shares outstanding. Of that total, $500 million was used to purchase shares. CapEx was $7.4 billion, down more than $3 billion from our fourth quarter of 2014. As a result of ongoing capital efficiencies, market savings, reduced activity and timely project delivery. Cash flow from operations and asset sales was $5.1 billion and at the end of the quarter, cash totaled $3.7 billion and debt was $38.7 billion. The next slide provides more detail on sources and uses of cash. Total for the quarter cash decreased from $4.3 billion to $3.7 billion. Earnings adjusted for depreciation expense, changes in working capital and other items, and our ongoing asset management program, yielded $5.1 billion of cash flow from operations and asset sales. The cash decrease from working capital changes includes both normal seasonality as well as the effect of the decline in crude prices on account balances and receivables and payables. Uses included net investments in the business of $6 billion and shareholder distributions of $3.6 billion. Cash flows were balanced over the quarter by increasing short-term borrowing by about $4 billion. Moving on to slide seven for a review of our segmented results. Exxon Mobil's fourth quarter earnings decreased $3.8 billion from a year ago quarter, though our Upstream earnings were partially offset by stronger Downstream results, whereas decreased Chemical earnings were mostly offset by lower corporate and financing costs. In the sequential comparison shown on slide eight, earnings decreased $1.5 billion due to lower earnings across all business segments. On average, corporate and financing expenses are anticipated to be $500 million to $700 million per quarter over the next year to two years. Turning now to the Upstream financial and operating results starting on slide nine. Fourth quarter Upstream earnings were $857 million, down $4.6 billion from a year ago quarter. Sharply lower commodity prices reduced earnings by more than $3.7 billion. Crude realizations declined more than $30 per barrel and gas was down $2.76 per thousand cubic feet. Favorable volume and mix effects increased earnings by $100 million. Volume additions from new developments were partly offset by regulatory restrictions in the Netherlands. All other items decreased earnings by $960 million, reflecting the absence of prior year impacts including US deferred income tax effects and the recognition of a favorable arbitration ruling for expropriated assets in Venezuela. These were partially offset by lower operating costs. Moving to slide 10. Oil equivalent production increased 194,000 barrels per day or 4.8% compared to a year ago quarter. Liquids production was up almost 300,000 barrels per day or nearly 14%, where ramp-up of new development projects, work programs and entitlement effects were partly offset by field decline. Natural gas production decreased about 630 million cubic feet per day due to regulatory restrictions in the Netherlands and field decline, partially offset by entitlement effects and development project volumes. Turning now to the sequential comparison starting on slide 11. Upstream earnings decreased about $500 million from the third quarter. Lower realizations reduced earnings $840 million where crude prices were about $8 per barrel lower than the third quarter, and natural gas prices were down $0.40 per thousand cubic feet. Volume and mix effects increased earnings $250 million, reflecting new project and work program growth along with higher seasonal demand. All other items added $90 million driven by tax impacts. Upstream unit profitability for the fourth quarter was $2.26 per barrel excluding the impact of non-controlling interest volumes. Moving to slide 12. Sequentially, volumes increased 330,000 oil equivalent barrels per day or 8.4%. Liquid production was up 150,000 barrels per day, reflecting new project growth, work programs and entitlement effects. Natural gas production was 1.1 billion cubic feet per day higher in the third quarter, driven by stronger seasonal demand in Europe, entitlement effects, and new project start-ups. Moving now to the Downstream financial and operating results starting on slide 13. Downstream earnings for the quarter were $1.4 billion, up $854 million compared to the year ago quarter. Stronger margins and favorable volumes mix improved earnings by $610 million and $70 million respectively. All other items increased earnings $170 million, primarily driven by reduced maintenance activities and favorable foreign exchange and tax effects partly offset by unfavorable inventory impacts. Turning to slide 14. Sequentially, Downstream earnings decreased $682 million as lower margins reduced earnings by $860 million. Volume and mix effects increased earnings by $60 million, reflecting lower US maintenance. Other items improved earnings by $120 million, primarily due to higher gains from asset sales partially offset by unfavorable inventory effects. Moving now to the Chemical financial and operating results starting on slide 15. Fourth quarter Chemical earnings were $963 million, down $264 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. Weaker margins decreased earnings by $210 million, while favorable volumes and mix effects added $170 million due to lower maintenance. All other items decreased earnings by $230 million, largely due to unfavorable foreign exchange, inventory and tax effects. Moving to slide 16. Chemical earnings were down $264 million sequentially. Weaker margins reduced earnings by $190 million while favorable volumes mix added $80 million. Other items decreased earnings $160 million, primarily reflecting increased maintenance activities. Turning now to the full year financial results starting on slide 17. Now as I mentioned, earnings were $16.2 billion or $3.85 per share. Corporation distributed over $15 billion to shareholders through dividends and share purchases to reduce shares outstanding. And of that total, $3 billion was used to purchase shares. CapEx totaled about $31 billion for the year, a reduction of almost $7.5 billion or 19% versus 2014 and approximately $3 billion below our plans for 2015. Cash flow from operations and asset sales was $32.7 billion. Turning to slide 18, cash decreased from $4.7 billion to $3.7 billion during the year. Earnings adjusted for depreciation expense, changes in working capital and other items, and our ongoing asset management program resulted in $32.7 billion of cash flow from operations and asset sales. Uses included net investments of $26.2 billion and shareholder distributions of $15 billion. Debt and other financing items provided $7.6 billion in the year. Moving to slide 19, graphic illustrates the corporation's sources and uses of cash during the year and highlights our ability to meet our financial objectives. Cash flow from operations and asset sales of $32.7 billion funded shareholder distributions and most of our net investments in the business supplemented by an increase in debt financing. The investments we select have attractive financial returns and justify the moderate use of our strong balance sheet capacity. The scale and integrated nature of our cash flows along with our financial strength provide us the flexibility and confidence to invest through the commodity price cycle to meet long-term energy demand. Corporation has continued to pay a reliable and growing dividend, directly sharing the corporation's success with our shareholders. Total dividends per share, $2.88, are up 6.7% versus 2014. As you know, we prudently tapered the share buyback program during 2015, consistent with changes in the business environment and the corporation's cash requirements. In the first quarter of 2016, Exxon Mobil will limit share purchases to amounts needed to offset dilution related to our benefit plans and programs and we do not plan on making additional purchases to reduce shares outstanding. During 2015, Exxon Mobil generated $6.5 billion of free cash flow, reflecting our cost and capital discipline and the resilience of our integrated business model. Looking forward, we anticipate capital and exploration expenditures to be $23.2 billion in 2016, a decrease of almost $8 billion or 25% from 2015. So to summarize this slide, the corporation finished the year with positive free cash flow. We have significantly lowered our capital spending plans and are aggressively pursuing operating efficiencies and cost savings as we continue to ramp up production from our major projects, all of which will support cash flow moving forward. We will provide further details on investment plans at our upcoming analyst meeting. Moving now to slide 20 and a review of our full year segmented results, 2015 earnings decreased $16.4 billion as weaker Upstream results were partially offset by stronger Downstream performance and lower corporate costs. Turning now to the full year comparison of Upstream results starting on slide 21. Upstream earnings of $7.1 billion were $20.4 billion lower than 2014. Realizations reduced earnings by $18.8 billion as crude oil prices declined more than $45 per barrel and natural gas dropped about $2.50 per thousand cubic feet. Favorable volume mix effects increased earnings $810 million where contributions from major project startups over the last couple of years as well as our work program activities were partially offset by the impact of regulatory restrictions in the Netherlands and field decline. All other items decreased earnings by $2.4 billion. Lower gains on asset sales and absence of prior year deferred income tax effects were partly offset by lower operating expenses. Upstream unit profitability for the year was $4.89 per barrel excluding the impact of non-controlling interest volumes. This reflects significantly lower commodity prices partially offset by asset high-grading, including the startup of new development projects. Moving to slide 22. As indicated, volumes ended the year at 4.1 million oil equivalent barrels per day, up 3.2% compared to last year. Liquids production was up 234,000 barrels per day or 11%, benefiting from major projects in several countries, work programs and entitlement impacts, which were partly offset by field decline. Natural gas production however was down 630 million cubic feet per day as regulatory restrictions in the Netherlands and field decline were partly offset by additional major project volumes in Papua New Guinea and the US along with higher entitlements. Full year comparison for Downstream results is shown on slide 23. Earnings were $6.6 billion, an increase of $3.5 billion from 2014. Stronger refining and marketing margins increased earnings by $4.1 billion. Volume and mix effects mainly driven by increased maintenance reduced earnings by $200 million. All other items decreased earnings by $420 million, while reflecting higher maintenance activities and unfavorable inventory impacts, partly offset by favorable foreign exchange effects. On slide 24, we show the full year comparison for Chemical results. 2015 earnings were $4.4 billion, up $103 million from 2014. Stronger margins increased earnings $590 million, while favorable volumes mix added $220 million due to lower maintenance. Other items reduced earnings $710 million, reflecting unfavorable foreign exchange, tax and inventory effects, partly offset by asset management gains. Moving next to an update on our Upstream project activities. We continue to deliver on our investment plans, which are adding higher value production capacity to meet long-term demand growth. Fixed major project startups in 2015 added nearly 300,000 oil equivalent barrels per day of working interest capacity. We also progressed development of our high quality acreage in the Permian and Bakken at a measured pace, where drilling programs added 85,000 oil equivalent barrels per day of gross production in 2015. In the fourth quarter, the Banyu Urip central processing facility successfully started up. Current gross production is 150,000 barrels per day and continues to ramp up towards full capacity as we optimize both well and facility performance. Looking forward, construction activities continue to progress on 10 major projects that will come online over the next two years. We expect to start up six of those in 2016, which will add more than 250,000 barrels per day of working interest production capacity. Moving now to slide 26. We continued to execute a paced and focused exploration program to deliver accretive value to Exxon Mobil's asset portfolio, while capturing cost efficiencies in today's softer market. In offshore Guyana, the largest 3D seismic survey in the company's history is nearly complete and we will begin appraising the Liza discovery during the first quarter. We also acquired a 35% interest in operatorship of the Canje block, which is adjacent to the Stabroek Block, adding over 520,000 net acres. In the Romanian Black Sea, Exxon Mobil has completed exploration activities in the Neptun block after successfully drilling seven consecutive wells since July 2014. Based on the results of the program, including a successful well test of the Domino prospect, we are advancing detailed development planning and economic viability studies. And in Argentina, we are beginning a production pilot program on the La Invernada and Bajo del Choique blocks in the Neuquén province. Program consists of five wells along with construction of production facilities and a gas pipeline. Over the past few months, we have also added high potential acreage to our diverse portfolio. Exxon Mobil acquired a 35% interest in Block 14 offshore Uruguay, capturing almost 580,000 net acres. In Canada, we were awarded interests in three blocks offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, adding over 650,000 net acres. These blocks are in a proven oil-prone hydrocarbon basin with recent industry discoveries. And this new opportunity will build on our 18 years of success in Eastern Canada with Hibernia, Terra Nova and the ongoing development at Hebron. And in Western Canada, we acquired additional working interest in our currently producing Duvernay acreage, adding 10,000 net acres. So I'd now like to conclude today's comments with a summary of our 2015 performance which demonstrates the resilience of our integrated business. Exxon Mobil earned $16.2 billion, underpinned by the benefits of our integrated business model which captures value through the cycle, as demonstrated by our strong Downstream and Chemical results. Corporation achieved its full year plan to produce 4.1 million oil equivalent barrels per day. Volume contributions from a portfolio of new developments underscore our project execution excellence and reputation as a reliable operator. Our results also reflect a relentless focus to reduce costs. In 2015, we achieved about $11.5 billion in capital and cash operating cost reductions. Solid operating performance combined with continued investment and cost discipline generated cash flow from operations and asset sales of $32.7 billion and positive free cash flow of $6.5 billion. Our commitment to shareholders remain strong as demonstrated by our reliable and growing dividend. So regardless of industry conditions, we remain focused on what we can control and are driven to create shareholder value through the cycle. And we will discuss our forward plans in more detail at our upcoming analyst meeting which will take place at the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday, March 2, with the live webcast beginning at 9 a.m. Eastern Time. That concludes my prepared remarks, and I would now be happy to take your questions.